2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick #7 (probably)

[Simpleton]

As a freshman Kawhi Leonard averaged 2.1 combined steals+blocks, 2 even as a sophomore. Jrue Holiday averaged 2.1 combined in his only collegiate season, Klay Thompson averaged 1.5 combined as a freshman, 2.1 as a sophomore and 2.5 as a junior.

They all played roughly 30 MPG in each of those seasons.

To say Okoro "didn't average 1 steal or block a game" is pretty disingenuous considering he averaged .9 of each, for a combined 1.8.

So he basically averaged 0.3 less combined steals+blocks per game in college than three of the best wing defenders in the league, two of which are probably going to go down as generational type wing defenders. Arguing that he shouldn't be projected as an elite defensive player because "he didn't average a steal or block per game" is, shall we say, problematic.

[MrFortune3]

As a freshman Kawhi Leonard averaged 2.1 combined steals+blocks, 2 even as a sophomore. Jrue Holiday averaged 2.1 combined in his only collegiate season, Klay Thompson averaged 1.5 combined as a freshman, 2.1 as a sophomore and 2.5 as a junior.

They all played roughly 30 MPG in each of those seasons.

To say Okoro "didn't average 1 steal or block a game" is pretty disingenuous considering he averaged .9 of each, for a combined 1.8.

So he basically averaged 0.3 less combined steals+blocks per game in college than three of the best wing defenders in the league, two of which are probably going to go down as generational type wing defenders. Arguing that he shouldn't be projected as an elite defensive player because "he didn't average a steal or block per game" is, shall we say, problematic.

Add to that, we just saw people clamoring for De'Andre Hunter in part due to his potential as an elite defender and he averaged 0.6 steals and blocks per game for a combined 1.2, Jarrett Culver was another guy considered a potentially elite defender and he averaged 1.4 spg and 0.6 bpg.

This invented stance that steals + blocks equals projected defense is nonsensical. It has little to do with projecting Okoro's defense nor his evaluation as a defender, especially since it was 1 season of college ball.

The one player I am most interested in seeing transition to the NBA is Wiseman. He could be a defensive anchor in the NBA in 2-3 years. I am curious to see how his offensive game works out.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

I wouldn't worry too much about that. I'm more concerned with his overall defense than steals or blocks. He has a lot of upside and will continue to get better as he fills out and grows in the NBA.

But we are talking about evaluating a college prospect, and not an already NBA player who is a solid defender, but doesn't have the stats, which is fine. Point being, good defenders at the college level, tend to have high blocks and steals total, and even then, they come into the NBA as average to poor defenders. Which is why as a player with average dimensions, but a strong athlete, but still lacks the defensive stats, it can be worrisome.

If we just talking about defensive smarts, and being intelligent enough to learn team defense, even less athletic and mediocre defensive players can learn that over time. If that's the case, you don't want to be using a lottery pick for those types of prospects, or you shouldn't be.

He's a wing player, James Harden is tied for 6th in the NBA in steals and he's a **** defender. Harden is also tied with DeAndre Jordan, Al Horford, Pascal Siakim, Tristan Thompson among others for blocks.
Doesn't make him any better of a defender.
I care more about his ability to rotate, take charges, play with good basketball IQ and play to his strengths on the defensive side of the ball without taking crazy chances.

He played 1 season of college, everybody isn't going to be insane as a 1 and done. He turned himself into a lotto pick when before the season began he was around the 40th ranked player in his HS class.
We have no true idea of what he's capable of off of one singular season of college basketball.

Steals and blocks don't make you a good defender, but good NBA defenders typically generate defensive events. There are exceptions, but with the draft you're playing the probability game, and steals in particular are a relatively strong indicator of NBA success (not just on defense, but overall).

[JohnnyKILLroy]

Larry Hughes

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

As a freshman Kawhi Leonard averaged 2.1 combined steals+blocks, 2 even as a sophomore. Jrue Holiday averaged 2.1 combined in his only collegiate season, Klay Thompson averaged 1.5 combined as a freshman, 2.1 as a sophomore and 2.5 as a junior.

They all played roughly 30 MPG in each of those seasons.

To say Okoro "didn't average 1 steal or block a game" is pretty disingenuous considering he averaged .9 of each, for a combined 1.8.

So he basically averaged 0.3 less combined steals+blocks per game in college than three of the best wing defenders in the league, two of which are probably going to go down as generational type wing defenders. Arguing that he shouldn't be projected as an elite defensive player because "he didn't average a steal or block per game" is, shall we say, problematic.

Add to that, we just saw people clamoring for De'Andre Hunter in part due to his potential as an elite defender and he averaged 0.6 steals and blocks per game for a combined 1.2, Jarrett Culver was another guy considered a potentially elite defender and he averaged 1.4 spg and 0.6 bpg.

This invented stance that steals + blocks equals projected defense is nonsensical. It has little to do with projecting Okoro's defense nor his evaluation as a defender, especially since it was 1 season of college ball.

The one player I am most interested in seeing transition to the NBA is Wiseman. He could be a defensive anchor in the NBA in 2-3 years. I am curious to see how his offensive game works out.

"Less than one of each" vs "almost one of each" -- it's a distinction without a difference.

Block rate isn't all that correlative to NBA success, particularly for wings. But steals are. My point about blocks was that the highlight suggests Okoro gets lots of them, when in fact he doesn't.

Looking at freshman year steal rate for the guys you mentioned:

Kawhi Leonard: 2.8%
Klay Thomson: 2.4% (sophomore year -- stat wasn't available his freshman year)
Jarrett Culver: 2.4%
Okoro: 1.7%

You mention De'Andre Hunter, but the low steal rate was a knock on him going into the draft. Some chalked it up to UVA's scheme, but his NBA steal rate is now just 1.0%.

As I said, you can become a good wing NBA defender without generating steals in college. It just isn't common.

More than anything, I look at steal rate as an indicator of a prospect's length+functional athleticism+reflexes, traits that matter on both ends of the floor.

[MrFortune3]

As a freshman Kawhi Leonard averaged 2.1 combined steals+blocks, 2 even as a sophomore. Jrue Holiday averaged 2.1 combined in his only collegiate season, Klay Thompson averaged 1.5 combined as a freshman, 2.1 as a sophomore and 2.5 as a junior.

They all played roughly 30 MPG in each of those seasons.

To say Okoro "didn't average 1 steal or block a game" is pretty disingenuous considering he averaged .9 of each, for a combined 1.8.

So he basically averaged 0.3 less combined steals+blocks per game in college than three of the best wing defenders in the league, two of which are probably going to go down as generational type wing defenders. Arguing that he shouldn't be projected as an elite defensive player because "he didn't average a steal or block per game" is, shall we say, problematic.

Add to that, we just saw people clamoring for De'Andre Hunter in part due to his potential as an elite defender and he averaged 0.6 steals and blocks per game for a combined 1.2, Jarrett Culver was another guy considered a potentially elite defender and he averaged 1.4 spg and 0.6 bpg.

This invented stance that steals + blocks equals projected defense is nonsensical. It has little to do with projecting Okoro's defense nor his evaluation as a defender, especially since it was 1 season of college ball.

The one player I am most interested in seeing transition to the NBA is Wiseman. He could be a defensive anchor in the NBA in 2-3 years. I am curious to see how his offensive game works out.

"Less than one of each" vs "almost one of each" -- it's a distinction without a difference.

Block rate isn't all that correlative to NBA success, particularly for wings. But steals are. My point about blocks was that the highlight suggests Okoro gets lots of them, when in fact he doesn't.

Looking at freshman year steal rate for the guys you mentioned:

Kawhi Leonard: 2.8%
Klay Thomson: 2.4% (sophomore year -- stat wasn't available his freshman year)
Jarrett Culver: 2.4%
Okoro: 1.7%

You mention De'Andre Hunter, but the low steal rate was a knock on him going into the draft. Some chalked it up to UVA's scheme, but his NBA steal rate is now just 1.0%.

As I said, you can become a good wing NBA defender without generating steals in college. It just isn't common.

More than anything, I look at steal rate as an indicator of a prospect's length+functional athleticism+reflexes, traits that matter on both ends of the floor.

Once again, I will point out to you James Harden. In college he averaged 2.1 spg as a frosh and 1.7 spg as a sophomore. He's tied for 6th in the league in SPG in the NBA.
He's still a terrible defender. Steph Curry is usually one of the top guys in SPG in the NBA when healthy. That does not make him a great defender.

It's not different than blocks, just because a guy blocks shots doesn't mean he's a good defender.

Nothing is common about the 1 and done era of college basketball. Stats are skewed, skills are not honed properly, when guys get to the NBA they're usually raw and in need of massive refinement.

[MrFortune3]

But we are talking about evaluating a college prospect, and not an already NBA player who is a solid defender, but doesn't have the stats, which is fine. Point being, good defenders at the college level, tend to have high blocks and steals total, and even then, they come into the NBA as average to poor defenders. Which is why as a player with average dimensions, but a strong athlete, but still lacks the defensive stats, it can be worrisome.

If we just talking about defensive smarts, and being intelligent enough to learn team defense, even less athletic and mediocre defensive players can learn that over time. If that's the case, you don't want to be using a lottery pick for those types of prospects, or you shouldn't be.

He's a wing player, James Harden is tied for 6th in the NBA in steals and he's a **** defender. Harden is also tied with DeAndre Jordan, Al Horford, Pascal Siakim, Tristan Thompson among others for blocks.
Doesn't make him any better of a defender.
I care more about his ability to rotate, take charges, play with good basketball IQ and play to his strengths on the defensive side of the ball without taking crazy chances.

He played 1 season of college, everybody isn't going to be insane as a 1 and done. He turned himself into a lotto pick when before the season began he was around the 40th ranked player in his HS class.
We have no true idea of what he's capable of off of one singular season of college basketball.

Steals and blocks don't make you a good defender, but good NBA defenders typically generate defensive events. There are exceptions, but with the draft you're playing the probability game, and steals in particular are a relatively strong indicator of NBA success (not just on defense, but overall).

No it's not. Go look up the leaders in SPG in the NCAA and notice that none of the best prospects in this draft are in the top 50 of that category. Kira Lewis Jr is 71st at 1.8 SPG.

I get what you're trying to say in that a prospect who can get steals likely has quick reflexes, good instincts and basketball IQ but that has nothing to do with projecting them as a player to the next level nor is it a barometer for their defensive acumen.

[MrFortune3]

As for Hunter, he didn't get a ton of steals in college, not going to in the NBA and it still doesn't effect his status as a defensive player. It never did, people just wanted to knock him for something on defense.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

Add to that, we just saw people clamoring for De'Andre Hunter in part due to his potential as an elite defender and he averaged 0.6 steals and blocks per game for a combined 1.2, Jarrett Culver was another guy considered a potentially elite defender and he averaged 1.4 spg and 0.6 bpg.

This invented stance that steals + blocks equals projected defense is nonsensical. It has little to do with projecting Okoro's defense nor his evaluation as a defender, especially since it was 1 season of college ball.

The one player I am most interested in seeing transition to the NBA is Wiseman. He could be a defensive anchor in the NBA in 2-3 years. I am curious to see how his offensive game works out.

"Less than one of each" vs "almost one of each" -- it's a distinction without a difference.

Block rate isn't all that correlative to NBA success, particularly for wings. But steals are. My point about blocks was that the highlight suggests Okoro gets lots of them, when in fact he doesn't.

Looking at freshman year steal rate for the guys you mentioned:

Kawhi Leonard: 2.8%
Klay Thomson: 2.4% (sophomore year -- stat wasn't available his freshman year)
Jarrett Culver: 2.4%
Okoro: 1.7%

You mention De'Andre Hunter, but the low steal rate was a knock on him going into the draft. Some chalked it up to UVA's scheme, but his NBA steal rate is now just 1.0%.

As I said, you can become a good wing NBA defender without generating steals in college. It just isn't common.

More than anything, I look at steal rate as an indicator of a prospect's length+functional athleticism+reflexes, traits that matter on both ends of the floor.

Once again, I will point out to you James Harden. In college he averaged 2.1 spg as a frosh and 1.7 spg as a sophomore. He's tied for 6th in the league in SPG in the NBA.
He's still a terrible defender. Steph Curry is usually one of the top guys in SPG in the NBA when healthy. That does not make him a great defender.

It's not different than blocks, just because a guy blocks shots doesn't mean he's a good defender.

Nothing is common about the 1 and done era of college basketball. Stats are skewed, skills are not honed properly, when guys get to the NBA they're usually raw and in need of massive refinement.

As I said a couple posts ago, steals don't necessarily make you a good NBA defender, but high-level NBA wings typically have higher college steal rates than Okoro. It doesn't mean he can't be an exception. Steal rate is just one factor of many.

As for 1 and done stats, it's a small sample but analysts have modeled their predictive value. No one has a crystal ball. That's true of older prospects too. But we have some things to go on.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

As for Hunter, he didn't get a ton of steals in college, not going to in the NBA and it still doesn't effect his status as a defensive player. It never did, people just wanted to knock him for something on defense.

Hunter would be a better help defender if he generated more turnovers.

But I'm not sure why he's being held up as an example of NBA success...?

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

He's a wing player, James Harden is tied for 6th in the NBA in steals and he's a **** defender. Harden is also tied with DeAndre Jordan, Al Horford, Pascal Siakim, Tristan Thompson among others for blocks.
Doesn't make him any better of a defender.
I care more about his ability to rotate, take charges, play with good basketball IQ and play to his strengths on the defensive side of the ball without taking crazy chances.

He played 1 season of college, everybody isn't going to be insane as a 1 and done. He turned himself into a lotto pick when before the season began he was around the 40th ranked player in his HS class.
We have no true idea of what he's capable of off of one singular season of college basketball.

Steals and blocks don't make you a good defender, but good NBA defenders typically generate defensive events. There are exceptions, but with the draft you're playing the probability game, and steals in particular are a relatively strong indicator of NBA success (not just on defense, but overall).

No it's not. Go look up the leaders in SPG in the NCAA and notice that none of the best prospects in this draft are in the top 50 of that category. Kira Lewis Jr is 71st at 1.8 SPG.

I get what you're trying to say in that a prospect who can get steals likely has quick reflexes, good instincts and basketball IQ but that has nothing to do with projecting them as a player to the next level nor is it a barometer for their defensive acumen.

That's not how it works. You don't look at steal rate in a vacuum. It's a sorting tool for the top prospects who've already been identified based on other factors (pedigree, tools, age, etc).

[Leslie Forman]

If you're projected as a potentially high end perimeter defender but you have poor steals numbers in college, it doesn't mean you're going to be a disappointing defender in the pros.

It just means you will probably be a disappointing defender in the pros.

Once again, I will point out to you James Harden. In college he averaged 2.1 spg as a frosh and 1.7 spg as a sophomore. He's tied for 6th in the league in SPG in the NBA.
He's still a terrible defender. Steph Curry is usually one of the top guys in SPG in the NBA when healthy. That does not make him a great defender.

If James Harden for some crazy reason decided he didn't want to handle the ball so much anymore and just wanted to be a 3+D guy, he would be a great defender. Hell, his low post defense might be the best of anyone his size in the league.

[JohnnyKILLroy]

As for Hunter, he didn't get a ton of steals in college, not going to in the NBA and it still doesn't effect his status as a defensive player. It never did, people just wanted to knock him for something on defense.

Hunter would be a better help defender if he generated more turnovers.

But I'm not sure why he's being held up as an example of NBA success...?

Hunter is going to be a beast defensively. When the Hawks came to town he was very impressive on that end up close.

[mack2354]

Being a good defender and getting a lot of steals shouldn't be compared to each other at all. All coaches tell their players to play defense with their feet not their hands. Staying in front of your opponent so he can't get to the rim and staying close to your opponent so he doesn't have room to comfortably shoot is what makes a great defender. Having active hands is a bonus.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

As for Hunter, he didn't get a ton of steals in college, not going to in the NBA and it still doesn't effect his status as a defensive player. It never did, people just wanted to knock him for something on defense.

Hunter would be a better help defender if he generated more turnovers.

But I'm not sure why he's being held up as an example of NBA success...?

Hunter is going to be a beast defensively. When the Hawks came to town he was very impressive on that end up close.

'Beast' is stronger than I'd put it. I think he'll be solid. He disappointed for a 22-year-old rookie. But my issues with him have more to do with offense.

[2018C3]

In 2019 the nba forced every team to hire a behavior psychologists. When it comes to the draft, I see this as becoming a future benefit in helping to pick up the right guy in a draft.

Hopefully more study's will be done on certain characteristics that allow certain players to excel.

Some guys come into the league with all the tools to be great, but fizzle out, and others continue to improve.

More work needs to be done in this area that can help identify a mental mindset that might help determine a young prospects likely hood of success. Right now the analytic guys are running the show, but the behavior psychologists might start to have a larger role in helping to draft the right player going forward.

[JohnnyKILLroy]

Hunter would be a better help defender if he generated more turnovers.

But I'm not sure why he's being held up as an example of NBA success...?

Hunter is going to be a beast defensively. When the Hawks came to town he was very impressive on that end up close.

'Beast' is stronger than I'd put it. I think he'll be solid. He disappointed for a 22-year-old rookie. But my issues with him have more to do with offense.

His offense I think will come around. He had stretches where it looked better. With Trey and Collins And Huerter I don’t think they need a lot from him on that end and he can take his time with it, pick his spots a little better. His shot was off but might just be an adjustment period as a rookie.

[Leslie Forman]

Being a good defender and getting a lot of steals shouldn't be compared to each other at all. All coaches tell their players to play defense with their feet not their hands. Staying in front of your opponent so he can't get to the rim and staying close to your opponent so he doesn't have room to comfortably shoot is what makes a great defender. Having active hands is a bonus.

So, the point of bringing up steals as a predictive stat isn't "Lots of steals = Awesome defender!" it's more that someone who has genuinely NBA-level athleticism, IQ, and motor should be able to get at least a respectable level of steals at the lowly college level, where the level of play is much worse. Sheer activity and instincts should be able to get NBA level guys a decent amount of steals (and/or blocks) at a lower level of play. Think about how you might struggle to defend against a really good pickup team, but against a much worse one, you can easily rack up turnovers against them just from bad passes or loose dribbling.

This is how one could figure out that Doug McDermott was going to be a complete bust. Kyle Korver had 56 steals his sophomore season. Doug had 34…after all four years. If a supposedly athletic 6'8" guy in college could only muster up one steal every five games, it simply isn't likely at all that they are going to have enough motor and IQ to hang with NBA wings.

[mack2354]

Fair enough points. In Doug's defense though he played PF in college so he probably spent a lot less time on the perimeter and more time in the paint compared to Kyle Korver.

[sco]

Lotto now 8/20...less than 1 month away!