Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[rosenthall]

One thing I go back on forth on right now is whether or not that's a realistic aspiration for this team. That outcomes feels optimistic for this group, but definitely better chances than anything we've had since Lonzo went down.

If you think it can, then it makes sense to resign Giddey & Coby and build around them. If it doesn't, it would actually be a good time to initiate a tank because you'd be selling very high on both of them and could get extra draft picks to accelerate a rebuild.

Yeah, the question is also what does a "sell high" look like on both guys.

If you wanted to sell high on Coby this offseason is definitely the time to do it. I'm not sure exactly what he'd fetch, but it seems like right now is peak-Coby in terms of trade value for the rest of his career. I think ideally he'd either fetch a top-5 pick, promising player on rookie contract + 1-2 1st round picks, or 2+ 1st round picks.

Giddey's trade value this offseason seems like it'd be low relative to his basketball value. Most likely scenario would be Brooklyn giving up a premium to acquire him via S&T if they couldn't sign him outright in RFA. Looking at their pick situation, one nice option they have available is the best 2028 1st round pick between PHX and PHI, which looks pretty good to me. The 2029 NY 1st rounder is also appealing since everyone on their current team will be out of contract at that point, so their record is really unpredictable. I'd think some combination of those and one of their own might be enticing.

If not that, probably the best bet would be to sign him so he can be traded the next offseason when BYC issues are no longer in play. If he puts out 22/8/8 I'd think there's a strong offer for him somewhere.

The ideal rebuilding scenario is we reset the deck with at least 3 other good 1st round picks spread out over the next 5 years + at least one other strong young player, plus our own draft picks that we collect over the same time period.

We could deliberately tank for 2-3 years with our own picks, then sign FA's a la the Rockets to get us over the hump and still have some good picks coming in after we improve.

I doubt this FO would do something like that, but it's an option.

[jnrjr79]

Analysis: Considering the Bulls gave Patrick Williams $18 million a year over five years, and he’s never shown as much as Giddey has, we’re bumping Giddey’s number up. We’re also knocking a year off, as Giddey isn’t going to fetch a player option on his final season, so he’ll likely only want to lock in for four years.

Wait now! If we overpay Patrick, then we're not only punished by that contract but with future contracts as well? Damn, I hope that's not right; if that were so, my soul would be hurt.[/quote]

Yeah, I never find the “you gave out a dumb contract, and now you need to make future decisions based on that contract” argument persuasive. Instead, learn your darn lesson! But here, Giddey has played himself into a higher-than-Williams type of deal, so it probably doesn’t matter either way.

[jnrjr79]

One thing I go back on forth on right now is whether or not that's a realistic aspiration for this team. That outcomes feels optimistic for this group, but definitely better chances than anything we've had since Lonzo went down.

If you think it can, then it makes sense to resign Giddey & Coby and build around them. If it doesn't, it would actually be a good time to initiate a tank because you'd be selling very high on both of them and could get extra draft picks to accelerate a rebuild.

Yeah, the question is also what does a "sell high" look like on both guys.

If you wanted to sell high on Coby this offseason is definitely the time to do it. I'm not sure exactly what he'd fetch, but it seems like right now is peak-Coby in terms of trade value for the rest of his career. I think ideally he'd either fetch a top-5 pick, promising player on rookie contract + 1-2 1st round picks, or 2+ 1st round picks.

I expect the market for Coby would be pretty attenuated by the fact that he effectively cannot be extended and any team that wants to keep him when he hits UFA after next season will need cap space to do it. If you’re not set up for that, he’s just a one-year rental.

[WindyCityBorn]

22.6 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.4

The Magic won't be an elite team unless Paolo & Franz learn to shoot from deep. If you're two best players are hoisting a combined 12 3PA at 31% from deep, there's a limitation on your ceiling in the modern NBA.

I'd still take those two over any two on Chicago

Watch on YouTube

I would not take Wagner on a max contract.

[rosenthall]

Yeah, the question is also what does a "sell high" look like on both guys.

If you wanted to sell high on Coby this offseason is definitely the time to do it. I'm not sure exactly what he'd fetch, but it seems like right now is peak-Coby in terms of trade value for the rest of his career. I think ideally he'd either fetch a top-5 pick, promising player on rookie contract + 1-2 1st round picks, or 2+ 1st round picks.

I expect the market for Coby would be pretty attenuated by the fact that he effectively cannot be extended and any team that wants to keep him when he hits UFA after next season will need cap space to do it. If you’re not set up for that, he’s just a one-year rental.

What is it about his contract that would prevent the team that trades for him from getting his bird rights?

Why would a trade for Coby in the final year of his contract be different than say, the trade Indiana made for Pascal Siakam for 3 1st round picks, and then proceeded to sign him for the max the next offseason?

I wasn't aware of special conditions around Coby's contract that prevents it from operating like other contracts under the CBA.

[ShouldaPaidBG]

I wonder what Giddey's average court speed is. I bet it's higher than most.

[Red8911]

I wonder what Giddey's average court speed is. I bet it's higher than most.

True, he actually moves pretty fast for a 6”8 dude.

[jordanwilliams6]

I wonder what Giddey's average court speed is. I bet it's higher than most.

True, he actually moves pretty fast for a 6”8 dude.

I'm not sure why some don't think he's athletic. There's no point being able to jump or sprint fast if you can't actually use it in a game of basketball.

Giddey plays at a relentless pace and is constantly attacking the defense and his size and timing allows him to beat a lot of bigs for rebounds consistently.

[BullChit]

I wonder what Giddey's average court speed is. I bet it's higher than most.

True, he actually moves pretty fast for a 6”8 dude.

I'm not sure why some don't think he's athletic. There's no point being able to jump or sprint fast if you can't actually use it in a game of basketball.

Giddey plays at a relentless pace and is constantly attacking the defense and his size and timing allows him to beat a lot of bigs for rebounds consistently.

He's certainly athletic.. He's just awkward in his movement.

I think it's why he's having so much success getting to the line lately. Imagine having a defend against a 6'8 dude running at you and it looks like he has frames missing from his animation.

It would be so hard to time steals, blocks and charges.

[sco]

True, he actually moves pretty fast for a 6”8 dude.

I'm not sure why some don't think he's athletic. There's no point being able to jump or sprint fast if you can't actually use it in a game of basketball.

Giddey plays at a relentless pace and is constantly attacking the defense and his size and timing allows him to beat a lot of bigs for rebounds consistently.

He's certainly athletic.. He's just awkward in his movement.

I think it's why he's having so much success getting to the line lately. Imagine having a defend against a 6'8 dude running at you and it looks like he has frames missing from his animation.

It would be so hard to time steals, blocks and charges.

We are the fastest pace team in the league and are at or near the top in transition scoring. That is 90% Giddey (10% Billy because Josh didn't start the season doing this). You don't need to be Bolt to get the ball down the court in a hurry, IMO you gotta have great cardio conditioning because it is a commitment to run. It is also a bit of BBIQ, which this dude has in spades, because it is also about decisiveness in knowing what to do once you have the ball in the half-court. He sees angles of attack that can get him to the rim better than most.

[dougthonus]

If you wanted to sell high on Coby this offseason is definitely the time to do it. I'm not sure exactly what he'd fetch, but it seems like right now is peak-Coby in terms of trade value for the rest of his career. I think ideally he'd either fetch a top-5 pick, promising player on rookie contract + 1-2 1st round picks, or 2+ 1st round picks.

I expect the market for Coby would be pretty attenuated by the fact that he effectively cannot be extended and any team that wants to keep him when he hits UFA after next season will need cap space to do it. If you’re not set up for that, he’s just a one-year rental.

What is it about his contract that would prevent the team that trades for him from getting his bird rights?

Why would a trade for Coby in the final year of his contract be different than say, the trade Indiana made for Pascal Siakam for 3 1st round picks, and then proceeded to sign him for the max the next offseason?

I wasn't aware of special conditions around Coby's contract that prevents it from operating like other contracts under the CBA.

A team could to that. What they can't do is negotiate with him at the time of the trade, because his max extension is 140% of his current contract, and he will be a UFA at the end of the deal so there is a risk he walks away to another cap space team, especially if you don't view him as a max player.

The main thing is that there is no way to lock in cost certainty or even certainty he will be there at the time of the trade, you lock in the ability to offer him a 5th year and 7% raises at the max but you probably don't want to pay Coby 30% of the salary cap, which means now you are in a high bidder situation where you may be forced to bow out or sign a deal you don't like to keep him.

If he had a contract where you could agree to an extension as part of the trade, it would remove that risk.

[ShouldaPaidBG]

I wonder what Giddey's average court speed is. I bet it's higher than most.

True, he actually moves pretty fast for a 6”8 dude.

I mean more like, he's always running never walking

[ShouldaPaidBG]

I wonder what Giddey's average court speed is. I bet it's higher than most.

True, he actually moves pretty fast for a 6”8 dude.

I mean more like, he's always running never walking or jogging

[sco]

I wonder what Giddey's average court speed is. I bet it's higher than most.

True, he actually moves pretty fast for a 6”8 dude.

I mean more like, he's always running never walking

Exactly, but he didnt' start that when he first got here, and when he does it, it forces everyone else to do it (except maybe Vuc and Pat ).

[dougthonus]

I'm not sure why some don't think he's athletic.

He has relatively low strength, poor lateral quickness, poor hops, and a slow first step. Literally by every measure you would typically view someone as athletic, he is probably in the lower tier of the league.

There's no point being able to jump or sprint fast if you can't actually use it in a game of basketball.

I mean absolutely, there are a ton of athletes that aren't good basketball players.

Giddey plays at a relentless pace and is constantly attacking the defense and his size and timing allows him to beat a lot of bigs for rebounds consistently.

Agreed, he seems like he has good endurance, he's constantly moving and playing quickly, and I think that keeps the pace up and can potentially wear down other players, but a separate (though obviously good) trait from what we'd generally view as athleticism.

[ShouldaPaidBG]

True, he actually moves pretty fast for a 6”8 dude.

I mean more like, he's always running never walking

Exactly, but he didnt' start that when he first got here, and when he does it, it forces everyone else to do it (except maybe Vuc and Pat ).

He couldn't cus Zach (and Vuc and Pat) were all in the way. Zach's brain can't go that fast. Pat at least knows how to get out of the way.

[Jcool0]

The Magic won't be an elite team unless Paolo & Franz learn to shoot from deep. If you're two best players are hoisting a combined 12 3PA at 31% from deep, there's a limitation on your ceiling in the modern NBA.

I'd still take those two over any two on Chicago

Watch on YouTube

I would not take Wagner on a max contract.

You wouldn't max a guy averaging 24.4 ppg on 46/30/86 with 5.7 rebounds and 4.4 assists with a 20 PER & a +13.5 on/off who is just 23? Uh sure.

[MissileMike]

I'm not sure why some don't think he's athletic.
He has relatively low strength, poor lateral quickness, poor hops, and a slow first step. Literally by every measure you would typically view someone as athletic, he is probably in the lower tier of the league.

Not sure I agree on the strength- he's pretty good at grabbing contested rebounds in a crowd.

[eierluke]

It wasn't clear to most of us who all (including me) were hoping for drafting a star player. But we may have our 2 star players already aboard with Giddey and White.
At some point you have to pay star players to win playoff series. So to me the question ain't anymore if the Bulls should sign them, it is just a matter of how much it'll cost.
There is a good possibility that they ain't as good as we want them to be, but if we're wrong and they are just as good as the DeRozan, LaVine, ball, Vuc squad, then we have to reload again, it is like it is, at some point in time you have to make decisions.

In case we have are reliable core in Giddey, White and Buzelis, we from there on have to find the right pieces to surround them.
Ball i.e. does not need to be a starter to make an impact, I hope for a role like the one Shaun Livingston has played on the Warriors.
Whether Vuc fits depends on Donovan to use him in the right way (less minutes) and whether Vuc does accept it or a not without souring.
To me we do not necessarily need to find additional starters, we need a squad that fits (i.e. If we're facing a small dominant PG put in Tre Jones, in other cases let us start Ayo or Huerter.
What we could really need is big man that can pass and block shots.

But from a financial pov let us (AKME) start to make financial commitments to talented players. P.Will was a waste of money from the moment they signed him, but in terms of Giddey and White there is at least a realistic chance to pay for a star.

[Chi town]

I wonder what Giddey's average court speed is. I bet it's higher than most.

True, he actually moves pretty fast for a 6”8 dude.

Dude def has found a new gear.

I wouldn’t want to take that charge.