Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[eierluke]

As for Giddeys one on one defensive weakness: he needs to defend his man by lowering his center of gravity.
This could be just a result of fatigue and maybe that could be fixed with taking care and strenght training in the off season.

[Ice Man]

He has relatively low strength, poor lateral quickness, poor hops, and a slow first step. Literally by every measure you would typically view someone as athletic, he is probably in the lower tier of the league.

But he does have good balance/flexibility, which is an underrated form of athleticism. Josh uses that ability to his advantage by being able to maneuver while angling his body, that helps him to get position on defenders. An opposite example would be Harrison Barnes, who is stronger, faster, and hoppier, but robotic in his movements.

[dougthonus]

Not sure I agree on the strength- he's pretty good at grabbing contested rebounds in a crowd.

I think he has good height and great rebounding instincts more than strength, he seems to get pushed around pretty easily IMO.

[Chi town]

Giddey’s greatest asset is his IQ.

Who in the league has a higher bball IQ?

[sco]

It wasn't clear to most of us who all (including me) were hoping for drafting a star player. But we may have our 2 star players already aboard with Giddey and White.
At some point you have to pay star players to win playoff series. So to me the question ain't anymore if the Bulls should sign them, it is just a matter of how much it'll cost.
There is a good possibility that they ain't as good as we want them to be, but if we're wrong and they are just as good as the DeRozan, LaVine, ball, Vuc squad, then we have to reload again, it is like it is, at some point in time you have to make decisions.

In case we have are reliable core in Giddey, White and Buzelis, we from there on have to find the right pieces to surround them.
Ball i.e. does not need to be a starter to make an impact, I hope for a role like the one Shaun Livingston has played on the Warriors.
Whether Vuc fits depends on Donovan to use him in the right way (less minutes) and whether Vuc does accept it or a not without souring.
To me we do not necessarily need to find additional starters, we need a squad that fits (i.e. If we're facing a small dominant PG put in Tre Jones, in other cases let us start Ayo or Huerter.
What we could really need is big man that can pass and block shots.

But from a financial pov let us (AKME) start to make financial commitments to talented players. P.Will was a waste of money from the moment they signed him, but in terms of Giddey and White there is at least a realistic chance to pay for a star.

Very good points. If we have "dumb-lucked" into a very good core 3, we just need to surround them with the right sort of complementary players. In this case, good vets, rather than a bunch of under-25 guys with potential. The good news of that approach is that it will cost less, and given the likely paydays for Josh and Coby, it's a good thing.

It also plays into this draft, I think that drafting BPA becomes more important. Optimistically, our picks will be getting progressively further from #1 starting next season. There is a lot of interest in drafting a C, and I think it is mainly a needs-based approach, which will likely be a mistake. Look, if Queen or Maluach are legitimately the best players dropping to us, fine, but I have my doubts on both guys finding NBA success.

[sco]

Giddey’s greatest asset is his IQ.

Who in the league has a higher bball IQ?

A lot of guys, but probably none under 25... I agree it's pretty high and very high for a 22 year old.

[rosenthall]

I expect the market for Coby would be pretty attenuated by the fact that he effectively cannot be extended and any team that wants to keep him when he hits UFA after next season will need cap space to do it. If you’re not set up for that, he’s just a one-year rental.

What is it about his contract that would prevent the team that trades for him from getting his bird rights?

Why would a trade for Coby in the final year of his contract be different than say, the trade Indiana made for Pascal Siakam for 3 1st round picks, and then proceeded to sign him for the max the next offseason?

I wasn't aware of special conditions around Coby's contract that prevents it from operating like other contracts under the CBA.

A team could to that. What they can't do is negotiate with him at the time of the trade, because his max extension is 140% of his current contract, and he will be a UFA at the end of the deal so there is a risk he walks away to another cap space team, especially if you don't view him as a max player.

The main thing is that there is no way to lock in cost certainty or even certainty he will be there at the time of the trade, you lock in the ability to offer him a 5th year and 7% raises at the max but you probably don't want to pay Coby 30% of the salary cap, which means now you are in a high bidder situation where you may be forced to bow out or sign a deal you don't like to keep him.

If he had a contract where you could agree to an extension as part of the trade, it would remove that risk.

This is technically true, I just think in practice it's almost always possible to communicate in broad strokes what you're willing to sign a player for, and if the player is open to playing in a certain destination. Even if they can't explicitly negotiate the contract that they would sign him to, teams can some assurance that there's intention for each side to stay with the other.

[dougthonus]

This is technically true, I just think in practice it's almost always possible to communicate in broad strokes what you're willing to sign a player for, and if the player is open to playing in a certain destination. Even if they can't explicitly negotiate the contract that they would sign him to, teams can some assurance that there's intention for each side to stay with the other.

If a player is going to sign a max contract, this is definitely true. If the player is not going to be on a max contract, there is a very real risk, because whatever you talk about that you're going to do, the player has the ability to talk with anyone. Also, say you are trading this summer, and you want to lock up Coby long term, but now events change over the season that change the value you want to do that at. Nothing is binding from either side.

This is a very real problem and not merely a technicality problem when dealing with sub max players, especially when you have a long context of games that will change the player's value in between the discussions.

It doesn't mean it is a game breaking problem, like no one would ever trade for him because of this or anything, but it definitely lowers the trade value when you add on this type of risk. Like if a team know they could get Coby for 25M per year for four years after this next year on an extension, they might be willing to pay much more for him than knowing they will go into a very uncertain situation and may only have him for a season or have to pay him 45M per year to keep him longer.

[jnrjr79]

Not sure I agree on the strength- he's pretty good at grabbing contested rebounds in a crowd.

I think he has good height and great rebounding instincts more than strength, he seems to get pushed around pretty easily IMO.

I happened to have really nice seats at the game against the Pacers the other night, and the thing that struck me about Giddey from up close was that he's got a lot of toughness. That's probably distinguishable from strength (in terms of a "how much do you bench, bro") standpoint, but he really seemed to thrive with contact/in crowds.

[Ice Man]

I happened to have really nice seats at the game against the Pacers the other night, and the thing that struck me about Giddey from up close was that he's got a lot of toughness. That's probably distinguishable from strength (in terms of a "how much do you bench, bro") standpoint, but he really seemed to thrive with contact/in crowds.

That ties in with my comments about his balance. When on offense, he helps himself get space by leaning into defenders. In contrast with Zach, for example. (When Giddey is on defense, not so much.)

[WindyCityBorn]

I'd still take those two over any two on Chicago

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I would not take Wagner on a max contract.

You wouldn't max a guy averaging 24.4 ppg on 46/30/86 with 5.7 rebounds and 4.4 assists with a 20 PER & a +13.5 on/off who is just 23? Uh sure.

He’s not a franchise player and never will be one. Isn’t that criteria for a max here? Those are pathetic rebounding numbers for his size. And the 3 point shooting is bad. But of course he can improve while Giddey won’t right. Grass is always greener for you. Buzelis has a higher ceiling than Wagner.

All that talent advantage and they right in the same situation as us in the play in.

Your golden Magic really want Coby btw so they see something you don’t.

[FriedRise]

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[MrSparkle]

I would not take Wagner on a max contract.

You wouldn't max a guy averaging 24.4 ppg on 46/30/86 with 5.7 rebounds and 4.4 assists with a 20 PER & a +13.5 on/off who is just 23? Uh sure.

He’s not a franchise player and never will be one. Isn’t that criteria for a max here? Those are pathetic rebounding numbers for his size. And the 3 point shooting is bad. But of course he can improve while Giddey won’t right. Grass is always greener for you. Buzelis has a higher ceiling than Wagner.

All that talent advantage and they right in the same situation as us in the play in.

This is nonsensical.

Franz is an excellent player; numbers, eyes, age and team improvement backs it up. His on-off numbers are insane.

They’ve had a ton of injuries this year. I’m happy to see us catch up after they lapped us with our youth assets, but come on now. They’ve had the parallel of Coby getting a knee surgery (Suggs), Giddey tearing an ab muscle (Paolo), Matas tearing his right oblique (Franz), and Collins tearing his ACL (Moritz). And each of these “counterparts” are statistically better.

[WindyCityBorn]

You wouldn't max a guy averaging 24.4 ppg on 46/30/86 with 5.7 rebounds and 4.4 assists with a 20 PER & a +13.5 on/off who is just 23? Uh sure.

He’s not a franchise player and never will be one. Isn’t that criteria for a max here? Those are pathetic rebounding numbers for his size. And the 3 point shooting is bad. But of course he can improve while Giddey won’t right. Grass is always greener for you. Buzelis has a higher ceiling than Wagner.

All that talent advantage and they right in the same situation as us in the play in.

This is nonsensical.

Franz is an excellent player; numbers, eyes, age and team improvement backs it up. His on-off numbers are insane.

They’ve had a ton of injuries this year. I’m happy to see us catch up after they lapped us with our youth assets, but come on now. They’ve had the parallel of Coby getting a knee surgery (Suggs), Giddey tearing an ab muscle (Paolo), Matas tearing his right oblique (Franz), and Collins tearing his ACL (Moritz). And each of these “counterparts” are statistically better.

I like our guys better outside of Blanchero. We’ll revisit this in two years God willing. Suggs at $30 million is a huge negative.

[Jcool0]

He’s not a franchise player and never will be one. Isn’t that criteria for a max here? Those are pathetic rebounding numbers for his size. And the 3 point shooting is bad. But of course he can improve while Giddey won’t right. Grass is always greener for you. Buzelis has a higher ceiling than Wagner.

All that talent advantage and they right in the same situation as us in the play in.

This is nonsensical.

Franz is an excellent player; numbers, eyes, age and team improvement backs it up. His on-off numbers are insane.

They’ve had a ton of injuries this year. I’m happy to see us catch up after they lapped us with our youth assets, but come on now. They’ve had the parallel of Coby getting a knee surgery (Suggs), Giddey tearing an ab muscle (Paolo), Matas tearing his right oblique (Franz), and Collins tearing his ACL (Moritz). And each of these “counterparts” are statistically better.

I like our guys better outside of Blanchero. We’ll revisit this in two years God willing.

If Matas gets to the level Wagner is right now... It would take a big leap.

[WindyCityBorn]

This is nonsensical.

Franz is an excellent player; numbers, eyes, age and team improvement backs it up. His on-off numbers are insane.

They’ve had a ton of injuries this year. I’m happy to see us catch up after they lapped us with our youth assets, but come on now. They’ve had the parallel of Coby getting a knee surgery (Suggs), Giddey tearing an ab muscle (Paolo), Matas tearing his right oblique (Franz), and Collins tearing his ACL (Moritz). And each of these “counterparts” are statistically better.

I like our guys better outside of Blanchero. We’ll revisit this in two years God willing.

If Matas gets to the level Wagner is right now... It would take a big leap.

Lol. That tends to happen with 19 year olds. They have to make huge leaps. His taw tools are clearly superior to Wagner.

[Jcool0]

I like our guys better outside of Blanchero. We’ll revisit this in two years God willing.

If Matas gets to the level Wagner is right now... It would take a big leap.

Lol. That tends to happen with 19 year olds. They have to make huge leaps. His taw tools are clearly superior to Wagner.

FWIW Matas is 20 not 19, so what tends to happen? 20 year olds become All Star level players? 20 year old improve? Neither of of things is guaranteed to happen (see Williams). Its called a huge leap for a reason. Wagner was a 20 year old rookie that averaged 15.6/4.5/2.9. Since the All Star break when Matas was getting more minutes, is at 11.9/4.1/1.8. Bulls fans are HOPING Matas is a 15/4/3 guy NEXT year. Wagner was 18.6/4.1/3.5 as a 21 year old. I think most fans would think of that is near peak for Matas. I'm a big Matas fan but if he gets to Wagner's level that is going to be an unexpected outcome.

[WindyCityBorn]

If Matas gets to the level Wagner is right now... It would take a big leap.

Lol. That tends to happen with 19 year olds. They have to make huge leaps. His taw tools are clearly superior to Wagner.

FWIW Matas is 20 not 19, so what tends to happen? 20 year olds become All Star level players? 20 year old improve? Neither of of things is guaranteed to happen (see Williams). Its called a huge leap for a reason. Wagner was a 20 year old rookie that averaged 15.6/4.5/2.9. Since the All Star break when Matas was getting more minutes, is at 11.9/4.1/1.8. Bulls fans are HOPING Matas is a 15/4/3 guy NEXT year. Wagner was 18.6/4.1/3.5 as a 21 year old. I think most fans would think of that is near peak for Matas. I'm a big Matas fan but if he gets to Wagner's level that is going to be an unexpected outcome.

It’s not unexpected other than by you. You’re the same person that wants to trade Coby for potential that will take years to develop, but now Matas will need an unrealistic leap. Make up your mind on young raw players.

[Jcool0]

Lol. That tends to happen with 19 year olds. They have to make huge leaps. His taw tools are clearly superior to Wagner.

FWIW Matas is 20 not 19, so what tends to happen? 20 year olds become All Star level players? 20 year old improve? Neither of of things is guaranteed to happen (see Williams). Its called a huge leap for a reason. Wagner was a 20 year old rookie that averaged 15.6/4.5/2.9. Since the All Star break when Matas was getting more minutes, is at 11.9/4.1/1.8. Bulls fans are HOPING Matas is a 15/4/3 guy NEXT year. Wagner was 18.6/4.1/3.5 as a 21 year old. I think most fans would think of that is near peak for Matas. I'm a big Matas fan but if he gets to Wagner's level that is going to be an unexpected outcome.

It’s not unexpected other than by you. You’re alsaje person that wants to trade Coby for potential that will take years to develop, but now Matas will need an unrealistic leap. Make up your mind on young raw players.

alsaje? is that English? So you think Matas will be in lets say 5 years a 24/5/5 player? I mean that would be great but i would like him to be able to put a few good games together before projecting him to be an elite player. As for Coby we have 400 games to know what kind of player he is, but lets say he is now a 25+ ppg guy with his other limitations. Do you want to be paying him 40M a year? I dont know if i would. I think it would be in the Bulls best interest to sell high instead of risking the previous 400 games didn't matter and the 20 games we just saw are the new norm. But that's just me.

[DrModesty]

Wagner is a fantastic player and clearly worth the 25% max. If Matas hits current Wagner level in his prime, then it is a huge success.

I also think Suggs is definitely worth $30m per year. The guy is similar to Caruso in the way he impacts winning, but is a young starter instead of a 30 yr old bench player, and he gets more involved in the offense.

The guy who got the questionable contract in that rookie class was Scottie Barnes. The guy is one of the worst shooters in the league, the playmaking is quite rudimentary and I don't like his motor. Seems like the classic guy who will have individual years where he puts it together and plays extremely well, but more often than not will be frustrating.