Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[WindyCityBorn]

FWIW Matas is 20 not 19, so what tends to happen? 20 year olds become All Star level players? 20 year old improve? Neither of of things is guaranteed to happen (see Williams). Its called a huge leap for a reason. Wagner was a 20 year old rookie that averaged 15.6/4.5/2.9. Since the All Star break when Matas was getting more minutes, is at 11.9/4.1/1.8. Bulls fans are HOPING Matas is a 15/4/3 guy NEXT year. Wagner was 18.6/4.1/3.5 as a 21 year old. I think most fans would think of that is near peak for Matas. I'm a big Matas fan but if he gets to Wagner's level that is going to be an unexpected outcome.

It’s not unexpected other than by you. You’re alsaje person that wants to trade Coby for potential that will take years to develop, but now Matas will need an unrealistic leap. Make up your mind on young raw players.

alsaje? is that English? So you think Matas will be in lets say 5 years a 24/5/5 player? I mean that would be great but i would like him to be able to put a few good games together before projecting him to be an elite player. As for Coby we have 400 games to know what kind of player he is, but lets say he is now a 25+ ppg guy with his other limitations. Do you want to be paying him 40M a year? I dont know if i would. I think it would be in the Bulls best interest to sell high instead of risking the previous 400 games didn't matter and the 20 games we just saw are the new norm. But that's just me.

If Coby White is an efficient 25 ppg scorer and we win 45 plus games next season then yes pay him $40 million. He will have earned it right? Good or bad we will get another full year to evaluate him. He’s 25 not 30. Some players are late bloomers.

I definitely wouldn’t want to pay him that, but the market would dictate it.

[SHO'NUFF]

Not sure I agree on the strength- he's pretty good at grabbing contested rebounds in a crowd.

I think he has good height and great rebounding instincts more than strength, he seems to get pushed around pretty easily IMO.

But to Giddey's defense he does a lot of pushing as well. He's a bruiser when slashing which helps him clear space getting to the rim. He's definitely not shy of contact. I don't know if you call that toughness or strength, but he's got that tough Aussie rugby mentality.

[Jcool0]

Wagner is a fantastic player and clearly worth the 25% max. If Matas hits current Wagner level in his prime, then it is a huge success.

I also think Suggs is definitely worth $30m per year. The guy is similar to Caruso in the way he impacts winning, but is a young starter instead of a 30 yr old bench player, and he gets more involved in the offense.

The guy who got the questionable contract in that rookie class was Scottie Barnes. The guy is one of the worst shooters in the league, the playmaking is quite rudimentary and I don't like his motor. Seems like the classic guy who will have individual years where he puts it together and plays extremely well, but more often than not will be frustrating.

Toronto was hoping he would make another jump like Wagner did. Unfortunately for them he is having a slightly worse year then last season. Will be just 24 next season so its not over for him yet. Its funny looking at his scoring numbers: 15.3, 15.3, 19.9, 19.6

[sco]

Wagner is a fantastic player and clearly worth the 25% max. If Matas hits current Wagner level in his prime, then it is a huge success.

I also think Suggs is definitely worth $30m per year. The guy is similar to Caruso in the way he impacts winning, but is a young starter instead of a 30 yr old bench player, and he gets more involved in the offense.

The guy who got the questionable contract in that rookie class was Scottie Barnes. The guy is one of the worst shooters in the league, the playmaking is quite rudimentary and I don't like his motor. Seems like the classic guy who will have individual years where he puts it together and plays extremely well, but more often than not will be frustrating.

Toronto was hoping he would make another jump like Wagner did. Unfortunately for them he is having a slightly worse year then last season. Will be just 24 next season so its not over for him yet. Its funny looking at his scoring numbers: 15.3, 15.3, 19.9, 19.6

I'd take Barnes any day, but like Wagner, the lack of a consistent volume 3 ball hurts his ability to be elite.

[ShouldaPaidBG]

It wasn't clear to most of us who all (including me) were hoping for drafting a star player. But we may have our 2 star players already aboard with Giddey and White.
At some point you have to pay star players to win playoff series. So to me the question ain't anymore if the Bulls should sign them, it is just a matter of how much it'll cost.
There is a good possibility that they ain't as good as we want them to be, but if we're wrong and they are just as good as the DeRozan, LaVine, ball, Vuc squad, then we have to reload again, it is like it is, at some point in time you have to make decisions.

In case we have are reliable core in Giddey, White and Buzelis, we from there on have to find the right pieces to surround them.
Ball i.e. does not need to be a starter to make an impact, I hope for a role like the one Shaun Livingston has played on the Warriors.
Whether Vuc fits depends on Donovan to use him in the right way (less minutes) and whether Vuc does accept it or a not without souring.
To me we do not necessarily need to find additional starters, we need a squad that fits (i.e. If we're facing a small dominant PG put in Tre Jones, in other cases let us start Ayo or Huerter.
What we could really need is big man that can pass and block shots.

But from a financial pov let us (AKME) start to make financial commitments to talented players. P.Will was a waste of money from the moment they signed him, but in terms of Giddey and White there is at least a realistic chance to pay for a star.

Very good points. If we have "dumb-lucked" into a very good core 3, we just need to surround them with the right sort of complementary players. In this case, good vets, rather than a bunch of under-25 guys with potential. The good news of that approach is that it will cost less, and given the likely paydays for Josh and Coby, it's a good thing.

It also plays into this draft, I think that drafting BPA becomes more important. Optimistically, our picks will be getting progressively further from #1 starting next season. There is a lot of interest in drafting a C, and I think it is mainly a needs-based approach, which will likely be a mistake. Look, if Queen or Maluach are legitimately the best players dropping to us, fine, but I have my doubts on both guys finding NBA success.

Agree on BPA, I don't think any center in this draft is going to be better than the Smith/Collins combo

[ShouldaPaidBG]

Wagner is a fantastic player and clearly worth the 25% max. If Matas hits current Wagner level in his prime, then it is a huge success.

I also think Suggs is definitely worth $30m per year. The guy is similar to Caruso in the way he impacts winning, but is a young starter instead of a 30 yr old bench player, and he gets more involved in the offense.

The guy who got the questionable contract in that rookie class was Scottie Barnes. The guy is one of the worst shooters in the league, the playmaking is quite rudimentary and I don't like his motor. Seems like the classic guy who will have individual years where he puts it together and plays extremely well, but more often than not will be frustrating.

Barnes got thick and slow for no reason

[DrModesty]

Wagner is a fantastic player and clearly worth the 25% max. If Matas hits current Wagner level in his prime, then it is a huge success.

I also think Suggs is definitely worth $30m per year. The guy is similar to Caruso in the way he impacts winning, but is a young starter instead of a 30 yr old bench player, and he gets more involved in the offense.

The guy who got the questionable contract in that rookie class was Scottie Barnes. The guy is one of the worst shooters in the league, the playmaking is quite rudimentary and I don't like his motor. Seems like the classic guy who will have individual years where he puts it together and plays extremely well, but more often than not will be frustrating.

Toronto was hoping he would make another jump like Wagner did. Unfortunately for them he is having a slightly worse year then last season. Will be just 24 next season so its not over for him yet. Its funny looking at his scoring numbers: 15.3, 15.3, 19.9, 19.6

Yeah, it isn't like he has no hope or anything. But he has to put a few things together to be the number 1 option they want him to be. That is why I called the contract questionable instead of outright bad though.

[leo921]

I really worry about overpaying Giddy this offseason and do not have faith that AK will not just give him massive amounts of money.

I can be realistic about Giddy and say he has improved his effort on defense, that he has gone from dumpster fire bad to the
below average to average range. The issue I have is that he can not guard most starting PGs, he gets hunted and lit up. You see
him doing better now because on defense he guards the weakest 2/3/4 on the court so he doesnt get blown up, gets steals and works
the passing lane. The big issue with that is then Giddy is in effect taking up 2 starting spots as you need to have him guard a wing plus
you need someone to cover PG vs him just playing and defending PGs and then putting in the best 4 guys around him.

I can also say he has improved his shooting and this has been a big help too him and us. I would like to see him get to hit 3s off the dribble
but I am happy he is at least hitting open 3s and has been cash since teams keep giving him space.

If we look at Giddy's time with us it has been a tale of two seasons where he was getting lit up on defense and was just okay
averaging around 12/5/5 once Lavine got traded Giddy and he became the main guy alongside White and controlling the tempo.

Giddy is going to push for a long term deal for 25-30m a year deal which I think would be a huge mistake, hold back our cap space, and
not be a trade asset. Giddy is going to say hey Quickly got 32m per so I deserve the same thing and we need to say no.
The best thing for the Bulls would be a deal in the 15-20m per range but Giddy will likely not accept it. We should then make him go into
free agency and get an offer. I think the best route for both sides would be a 1 year deal for 30m, this helps in two ways, Giddy gets paid and
if he keeps playing well then the Bulls or someone else will pay him, for the Bulls they get more time to evaulate Giddy vs just paying him off
a hot streak and Giddy also becomes an expiring trade asset.

[2weekswithpay]

Wagner is a fantastic player and clearly worth the 25% max. If Matas hits current Wagner level in his prime, then it is a huge success.

I also think Suggs is definitely worth $30m per year. The guy is similar to Caruso in the way he impacts winning, but is a young starter instead of a 30 yr old bench player, and he gets more involved in the offense.

The guy who got the questionable contract in that rookie class was Scottie Barnes. The guy is one of the worst shooters in the league, the playmaking is quite rudimentary and I don't like his motor. Seems like the classic guy who will have individual years where he puts it together and plays extremely well, but more often than not will be frustrating.

I think Suggs contract is questionable as well. He had a large shooting jump in his third season, plus an injury history. There is a lot of downside there.

Barnes would benefit from a role change. Ideally he should be used more like Jalen Johnson, IMO. A screener, short-roll guy instead of an initiator.

[kodo]

I wonder what Giddey's average court speed is. I bet it's higher than most.

True, he actually moves pretty fast for a 6”8 dude.

Looked up the actual stats, post-ASG.

10th highest distance traveled per game in the league with the lowest minutes out of any of those players. Giddey moves a ton. He actually covers more ground than Coby White even though Coby plays more minutes.

Whatever anyone thinks of his athleticism, his motor is undeniable.

[WindyCityBorn]

I really worry about overpaying Giddy this offseason and do not have faith that AK will not just give him massive amounts of money.

I can be realistic about Giddy and say he has improved his effort on defense, that he has gone from dumpster fire bad to the
below average to average range. The issue I have is that he can not guard most starting PGs, he gets hunted and lit up. You see
him doing better now because on defense he guards the weakest 2/3/4 on the court so he doesnt get blown up, gets steals and works
the passing lane. The big issue with that is then Giddy is in effect taking up 2 starting spots as you need to have him guard a wing plus
you need someone to cover PG vs him just playing and defending PGs and then putting in the best 4 guys around him.

I can also say he has improved his shooting and this has been a big help too him and us. I would like to see him get to hit 3s off the dribble
but I am happy he is at least hitting open 3s and has been cash since teams keep giving him space.

If we look at Giddy's time with us it has been a tale of two seasons where he was getting lit up on defense and was just okay
averaging around 12/5/5 once Lavine got traded Giddy and he became the main guy alongside White and controlling the tempo.

Giddy is going to push for a long term deal for 25-30m a year deal which I think would be a huge mistake, hold back our cap space, and
not be a trade asset. Giddy is going to say hey Quickly got 32m per so I deserve the same thing and we need to say no.
The best thing for the Bulls would be a deal in the 15-20m per range but Giddy will likely not accept it. We should then make him go into
free agency and get an offer. I think the best route for both sides would be a 1 year deal for 30m, this helps in two ways, Giddy gets paid and
if he keeps playing well then the Bulls or someone else will pay him, for the Bulls they get more time to evaulate Giddy vs just paying him off
a hot streak and Giddy also becomes an expiring trade asset.

Giddey is getting paid by Chicago. Accept it. It’s over.

[WindyCityBorn]

I wonder what Giddey's average court speed is. I bet it's higher than most.

True, he actually moves pretty fast for a 6”8 dude.

Looked up the actual stats, post-ASG.

10th highest distance traveled per game in the league with the lowest minutes out of any of those players. Giddey moves a ton. He actually covers more ground than Coby White even though Coby plays more minutes.

Whatever anyone thinks of his athleticism, his motor is undeniable.

No one complains about fat Luka’s athleticism. Well Inguess the Mavs did…

[leo921]

I really worry about overpaying Giddy this offseason and do not have faith that AK will not just give him massive amounts of money.

I can be realistic about Giddy and say he has improved his effort on defense, that he has gone from dumpster fire bad to the
below average to average range. The issue I have is that he can not guard most starting PGs, he gets hunted and lit up. You see
him doing better now because on defense he guards the weakest 2/3/4 on the court so he doesnt get blown up, gets steals and works
the passing lane. The big issue with that is then Giddy is in effect taking up 2 starting spots as you need to have him guard a wing plus
you need someone to cover PG vs him just playing and defending PGs and then putting in the best 4 guys around him.

I can also say he has improved his shooting and this has been a big help too him and us. I would like to see him get to hit 3s off the dribble
but I am happy he is at least hitting open 3s and has been cash since teams keep giving him space.

If we look at Giddy's time with us it has been a tale of two seasons where he was getting lit up on defense and was just okay
averaging around 12/5/5 once Lavine got traded Giddy and he became the main guy alongside White and controlling the tempo.

Giddy is going to push for a long term deal for 25-30m a year deal which I think would be a huge mistake, hold back our cap space, and
not be a trade asset. Giddy is going to say hey Quickly got 32m per so I deserve the same thing and we need to say no.
The best thing for the Bulls would be a deal in the 15-20m per range but Giddy will likely not accept it. We should then make him go into
free agency and get an offer. I think the best route for both sides would be a 1 year deal for 30m, this helps in two ways, Giddy gets paid and
if he keeps playing well then the Bulls or someone else will pay him, for the Bulls they get more time to evaulate Giddy vs just paying him off
a hot streak and Giddy also becomes an expiring trade asset.

Giddey is getting paid by Chicago. Accept it. It’s over.

If you read the last part I did accept it and laid out some options like 1 yr-30m so we can see a full year of Giddy playing like he as for the last month and make sure his play is real and not a hot steak or something more long term like 4yr-100m but hey its a good try

[WindyCityBorn]

I really worry about overpaying Giddy this offseason and do not have faith that AK will not just give him massive amounts of money.

I can be realistic about Giddy and say he has improved his effort on defense, that he has gone from dumpster fire bad to the
below average to average range. The issue I have is that he can not guard most starting PGs, he gets hunted and lit up. You see
him doing better now because on defense he guards the weakest 2/3/4 on the court so he doesnt get blown up, gets steals and works
the passing lane. The big issue with that is then Giddy is in effect taking up 2 starting spots as you need to have him guard a wing plus
you need someone to cover PG vs him just playing and defending PGs and then putting in the best 4 guys around him.

I can also say he has improved his shooting and this has been a big help too him and us. I would like to see him get to hit 3s off the dribble
but I am happy he is at least hitting open 3s and has been cash since teams keep giving him space.

If we look at Giddy's time with us it has been a tale of two seasons where he was getting lit up on defense and was just okay
averaging around 12/5/5 once Lavine got traded Giddy and he became the main guy alongside White and controlling the tempo.

Giddy is going to push for a long term deal for 25-30m a year deal which I think would be a huge mistake, hold back our cap space, and
not be a trade asset. Giddy is going to say hey Quickly got 32m per so I deserve the same thing and we need to say no.
The best thing for the Bulls would be a deal in the 15-20m per range but Giddy will likely not accept it. We should then make him go into
free agency and get an offer. I think the best route for both sides would be a 1 year deal for 30m, this helps in two ways, Giddy gets paid and
if he keeps playing well then the Bulls or someone else will pay him, for the Bulls they get more time to evaulate Giddy vs just paying him off
a hot streak and Giddy also becomes an expiring trade asset.

Giddey is getting paid by Chicago. Accept it. It’s over.

If you read the last part I did accept it and laid out some options like 1 yr-30m so we can see a full year of Giddy playing like he as for the last month and make sure his play is real and not a hot steak or something more long term like 4yr-100m but hey its a good try

4 years $100 million is probably the starting point of negotiations.

We already know he won’t keep shooting 50 percent from 3. Everything else looks sustainable.

[dougthonus]

I can be realistic about Giddy and say he has improved his effort on defense, that he has gone from dumpster fire bad to the
below average to average range. The issue I have is that he can not guard most starting PGs, he gets hunted and lit up. You see
him doing better now because on defense he guards the weakest 2/3/4 on the court so he doesnt get blown up, gets steals and works
the passing lane. The big issue with that is then Giddy is in effect taking up 2 starting spots as you need to have him guard a wing plus
you need someone to cover PG vs him just playing and defending PGs and then putting in the best 4 guys around him.

Getting a guy that can defend PGs and just shoot open jumpers and doesn't need to be a play maker /volume scorer seems a heck of a lot easier than finding a PG that can defend PGs, shoot well, and be an elite play maker. Basically, you are looking for a Pat Beverley or Alex Caruso. Caruso is the elite version of that and went for 20M, the decent version is probably a sub MLE player.

There are a lot of guys throughout the NBA historically that are decent/good shooters and can defend PGs/SGs, but don't have the ball handling or passing chops to be a playmaker and only score in low usage, such a guy would fit fine next to Giddey and typically isn't that expensive.

The greater problem (which I think you eluded to) is really just that when three point shooting and defense are your big challenges it creates gaps, and now it creates a lot of specific and harder to fill requirements for the rest of the roster.

[sco]

I can be realistic about Giddy and say he has improved his effort on defense, that he has gone from dumpster fire bad to the
below average to average range. The issue I have is that he can not guard most starting PGs, he gets hunted and lit up. You see
him doing better now because on defense he guards the weakest 2/3/4 on the court so he doesnt get blown up, gets steals and works
the passing lane. The big issue with that is then Giddy is in effect taking up 2 starting spots as you need to have him guard a wing plus
you need someone to cover PG vs him just playing and defending PGs and then putting in the best 4 guys around him.

Getting a guy that can defend PGs and just shoot open jumpers and doesn't need to be a play maker /volume scorer seems a heck of a lot easier than finding a PG that can defend PGs, shoot well, and be an elite play maker. Basically, you are looking for a Pat Beverley or Alex Caruso. Caruso is the elite version of that and went for 20M, the decent version is probably a sub MLE player.

There are a lot of guys throughout the NBA historically that are decent/good shooters and can defend PGs/SGs, but don't have the ball handling or passing chops to be a playmaker and only score in low usage, such a guy would fit fine next to Giddey and typically isn't that expensive.

The greater problem (which I think you eluded to) is really just that when three point shooting and defense are your big challenges it creates gaps, and now it creates a lot of specific and harder to fill requirements for the rest of the roster.

IMO, Giddey's point forward role creates an opportunity, to Doug's point. To be successfull we need a great point-of-attack defender (and ideally 3pt shooter). I think we have 3 guys who could successfully be cast in that role in Ball, Ayo and Jones.

I think an under-appreciated part of Boston's success stems from Tatum's playmaking/scoring allows them to have 2 great point-of-attack defenders in Holiday and White. With many teams' scoring coming from their PG's, those two make a big impact.

[ScrantonBulls]

Brooklyn is going to throw a massive contract his way, aren't they?

[League Circles]

Brooklyn is going to throw a massive contract his way, aren't they?

Probably not cause we'll probably sign him before he hits free agency. We'll want to lock him up and he'll want the 5th year with bigger raises. Not guaranteed but I think it will happen.

[ScrantonBulls]

Brooklyn is going to throw a massive contract his way, aren't they?

Probably not cause we'll probably sign him before he hits free agency. We'll want to lock him up and he'll want the 5th year with bigger raises. Not guaranteed but I think it will happen.

It depends what we offer. If he thinks there's a possibility of Brooklyn throwing a massive contract his way, why wouldn't he test it? Unless you think the Bulls will nearly max him.

[League Circles]

Brooklyn is going to throw a massive contract his way, aren't they?

Probably not cause we'll probably sign him before he hits free agency. We'll want to lock him up and he'll want the 5th year with bigger raises. Not guaranteed but I think it will happen.

It depends what we offer. If he thinks there's a possibility of Brooklyn throwing a massive contract his way, why wouldn't he test it? Unless you think the Bulls will nearly max him.

I actually do think the Bulls might nearly max him. I imagine the Bulls might offer something like 5 years, starting at the max, but staying flat with no raises. Brooklyn would most likely offer a 4 year deal with max raises with a player option on year 4.

I suppose Giddey might agree to something less than tte most he thinks he can get cause maybe he really wants to stay in Chicago and doesn't want to take even a small risk that they don't match an offer sheet. If we offer him a very large 5 year deal I think he'll take it.