Rerisen wrote:Steve Kyler: One Western Conference Exec asked "Why is everyone acting like Houston invented some mastermind solution... those guys getting matched"
I hope he's right.
He may be right, but it's one of those be careful what you wish for scenarios, because if the Bulls match Asik, that almost certainly means that he is Noah's replacement. The sad truth is that, now Rose's Rose Exception max has kicked in, the Bulls can't even afford $5m backups, let alone $8m, $10m, or $15m backups. The way the CBA structures Asik's contract, it is a pretty good contract to match if you intend to play him, but terrible if you intend to trade him unless you are looking to take on even more unwanted money.
I keep hearing this strategy of let's keep him while he is a "good deal" for two years, and when his contract turns into a flaming pile of poo in the third year, we will just trade him for a superstar. Yeah, trade a flaming pile of used poo and which truckload of assets, dare I ask? Oh yeah, Cat's pick, Mirotic, a late first, and a flaming pile of two-year used poo of $15m a year for Asik for Durant. They ought to jump at that. Let's get it done! Why didn't I think of that?
But, just for argument's sake, let's say the stars align and OKC has buyer's remorse on Harden's extension and is willing to salary dump him for that picks, Mirotic, and a flaming pile of used poo of $15m a year for Asik (pretty sure half a dozen team will be standing in line to offer more, but let's say there is not for argument's sake). So the stars have aligned and God Almighty smiles on us. What kind of situation do we find ourselves?
We will have Rose/Noah/Taj/Harden @ $60m and a decent Deng replacement @ $5.5m, exactly one bag of potato chips below the LT line (that's the LT line, not the cap). Okay, now for the moment of grace, do you think Reinsdorf will shell out $35m in salaries+LT to field a barebone aging supporting cast of damaged goods
and pay $15m in Boozer amnesty money for that team? Would that LT be even higher because we are paying 3rd year repeater because we have had $5m guy backing up Noah?
That's if we get a small miracle and things go right. Without that small miracle we will be a bag of potato chips below the LT line with Rose/Noah/Taj, cheap Deng replacement, and a flaming pile of used poo, paying $15m Boozer amnesty
and paying LT for a supporting cast of D-Leaguers.
I'm sorry, guys, but the money just doesn't add up.
- - -
What you have to remember that this won't be a Gortat 7-7-7-7 match. After the consent-required first year, a two-way player like Gortat at 7-7-7 is still a positive value contract. Once you have used up Asik's "good year" or two it becomes a net negative trading piece. To trade him we will probably send away assets the Bulls can't afford to send away. With Rose and Noah and Taj (
or Boozer) on the books, we abso
tively posi
lutely need good players on rookie contracts.
There will be some flexibility if the Bulls match Asik as Noah's cheap(er) replacement and try to trade Noah for that "second option," but by the time Deng comes off the books and the Bulls can reasonably amnesty Boozer for that flexibility, guess what? That's the year you are paying Asik $15m, but at least you still have your rookie contract assets. Does anybody even have a single concrete scenario for matching Asik and keeping Noah that doesn't go along the line of keeping Asik for two "good years," then when his contract turns into a flaming pile of used poo, trade him straight up for LeBron James?
I know it sucks that the way the CBA structures Asik's contract, you can't match his "non-ridiculous" deal and have it be a positive trade value piece a year or two down the line, but it is what it is and management still needs to put aside their disgust and make the right call. Personally, I think they ought to either match Asik and trade Noah or decline to match. If they want to keep Noah, then as much as it sucks to let Asik walk for nothing, I just don't see any reasonable scenario they can match Asik and come out ahead.
