Jcool0 wrote:Draft isn't bad talent wise. There are what 6 elite upside players? And maybe 8-10 All-Star caliber players in this draft? But the problem is the NBA likes 3-4 sure things in a draft and this doesn't really have one. The likelihood of 8 of the 10 picks busting is the same as 3 of the 10 making multiple All Star games. Isaiah Collier was a top 3 recruit, had a decent season as USC and might not go in the top 15. Yet he has the upside that he could end up being the best player in this draft. Not sure how you find that guy in a sea of question marks.
Yeah, well like I said, IMO the draft boards are just screwy. Why are Holland, Collier, Dillingham even going past 10 in some mocks? These are top-10 picks in this draft.
And I don't think Risacher is top-5 material. Nor Clingan. Nor Reed. Nor Knecht. I'd maybe take Reed at the 8-10, but I don't think he's such a sure-bet. 3P specialists have great value in the league, but not nearly as much if they're undersized and not explosive or crafty with the dribble. You're banking on some major playmaking development. Have to ask seriously what the difference is between him and Quickley.
And why the heck is Edey 25-30 on some boards? I get it - high chance he can't start in the NBA, but there's also a high chance he's a simple double-double machine with shooting upside. THere's just no reason a team couldn't live with those 50/50 odds closer to the middle of the 1st round. Worst case scenario honestly, is he just runs into injuries with the defensive demands of the NBA.
Here's where I'm at right now:
1 Sarr
2 Topic
3-5 Holland/Castle/Dillingham
6-10 Matas/Collier/Reed/Risacher/Clingan
11-14 Knecht/Cody/Walter/Edey
After that it's a Wild West. I think Salaun could be the worst pick ever, though I see a lot of potential. I think there are several bench role-players with fringe starter potential (Kyle, Silva) and some good bench prospects ala Pritchard/Podz/Ayo/LaVert (Carter, Kolek, McCain, Shannon, Missi).
I'd sleep the best at night knowing Bulls come away with Sarr or Topic. Yay for 2% odds.