2025 Draft prospects - thread 2

[Jcool0]

A WCJ level prospect at pick twelve is a W. I liked WCJ, but only when he was motivated and locked in. The problem was that version of WCJ was the exception and miles away from being the rule.

If you could guarantee that Sorber would have about the same career as Carter, then picking him at 12 in a range where the range of outcomes is all over the place is definitely a win.

Are there prospects with higher ceilings in theory? Sure. Could there be a superstar in that same range? Sure. Good luck picking the right one. Getting a productive piece that is a part of your future is still a win.

At the rate WCJ is going he will be in a 6th man in a season or two. He's been a fringe starter most of his career, i guess its an okay outcome for 12 but considering teams have found All NBA players in that range i wouldn't be thrilled with the outcome. I would rather take the analytics darling in CMB in that scenario.

[Red Larrivee]

At the rate WCJ is going he will be in a 6th man in a season or two. He's been a fringe starter most of his career, i guess its an okay outcome for 12 but considering teams have found All NBA players in that range i wouldn't be thrilled with the outcome. I would rather take the analytics darling in CMB in that scenario.

The last 25 years of the 12th pick:

All-NBA or All-Star Appearances:
Jalen Williams
Tyrese Haliburton

Everyone else:
Derek Lively
Nikola Topic
Josh Primo
PJ Washington
Miles Bridges
Luke Kennard
Taurean Prince
Trey Lyles
Dario Saric
Steven Adams
Jeremy Lamb
Alec Burks
Xavier Henry
Gerald Henderson
Nick Collison
Robert Swift
Jason Thompson
Ethan Thomas
Thaddeus Young
Yaroslav Korolev
Melvin Ely
Vlad Rad
Hilton Armstrong

I get disappointment of not drafting an all-star in a vacuum at any pick in the draft. But, that disappointment is not at all rooted in having probability even remotely on your side. The all-stars at 12 are players nobody even remotely expected to be as good as they are.

We just have to be realistic about what this pick is. Wendell Carter would be on the higher end of career outcomes for a 12th pick historically.

[Jvaughn]

Updated Prospect Breakdown on one of my favorites:

Watch on YouTube

[Rose2Boozer]

Sorber would be the team's best rim protector on day one. He'll be the second best rebounder and inside scorer next to Vucevic. I'm not even talking about long term upside. Sorber is that the second he steps on the court, and he will arguably be our best young prospect.

[DuckIII]

Sorber would be the team's best rim protector on day one. He'll be the second best rebounder and inside scorer next to Vucevic. I'm not even talking about long term upside. Sorber is that the second he steps on the court, and he will arguably be our best young prospect.

Sorber is not on my preferred list, but he is on my list of guys I won’t freak out if we take and will just hope for the best. But the idea that he’s even close to Matas as a prospect is way out there.

[Jcool0]

At the rate WCJ is going he will be in a 6th man in a season or two. He's been a fringe starter most of his career, i guess its an okay outcome for 12 but considering teams have found All NBA players in that range i wouldn't be thrilled with the outcome. I would rather take the analytics darling in CMB in that scenario.

The last 25 years of the 12th pick:

All-NBA or All-Star Appearances:
Jalen Williams
Tyrese Haliburton

Everyone else:
Derek Lively
Nikola Topic
Josh Primo
PJ Washington
Miles Bridges
Luke Kennard
Taurean Prince
Trey Lyles
Dario Saric
Steven Adams
Jeremy Lamb
Alec Burks
Xavier Henry
Gerald Henderson
Nick Collison
Robert Swift
Jason Thompson
Ethan Thomas
Thaddeus Young
Yaroslav Korolev
Melvin Ely
Vlad Rad
Hilton Armstrong

I get disappointment of not drafting an all-star in a vacuum at any pick in the draft. But, that disappointment is not at all rooted in having probability even remotely on your side. The all-stars at 12 are players nobody even remotely expected to be as good as they are.

We just have to be realistic about what this pick is. Wendell Carter would be on the higher end of career outcomes for a 12th pick historically.

"in that range" i did not say just the 12th pick. Also over half that list is better then WCJ. As a 25 year old on a playoff team WCJ averaged 9.1 points on 46% shooting (23% from 3) with 7.2 rebounds and 0.6 blocks. I hope the Bulls get someone better then that at 12.

[BullsSD]

Updated Prospect Breakdown on one of my favorites:

Watch on YouTube

In every video I see, it looks like he's playing against mannequins. Absolute cones on defense. I like him, but are you really sure about the quality? So many are sure he's BPA. I am nowhere near making that concession.

[DuckIII]

Updated Prospect Breakdown on one of my favorites:

Watch on YouTube

In every video I see, it looks like he's playing against mannequins. Absolute cones on defense. I like him, but are you really sure about the quality? So many are sure he's BPA. I am nowhere near making that concession.

The year before LeBron joined the NBA he was playing against 5’10 kids named Ethan.

Maybe Essenge won’t pan out. But I would be careful counting people out because of their competition. It’s a factor to me but not a big one.

[Jcool0]

Updated Prospect Breakdown on one of my favorites:

Watch on YouTube

In every video I see, it looks like he's playing against mannequins. Absolute cones on defense. I like him, but are you really sure about the quality? So many are sure he's BPA. I am nowhere near making that concession.

The year before LeBron joined the NBA he was playing against 5’10 kids named Ethan.

Maybe Essenge won’t pan out. But I would be careful counting people out because of their competition. It’s a factor to me but not a big one.

FWIW Trevor Ariza is 6'8"

Watch on YouTube

[DuckIII]

In every video I see, it looks like he's playing against mannequins. Absolute cones on defense. I like him, but are you really sure about the quality? So many are sure he's BPA. I am nowhere near making that concession.

The year before LeBron joined the NBA he was playing against 5’10 kids named Ethan.

Maybe Essenge won’t pan out. But I would be careful counting people out because of their competition. It’s a factor to me but not a big one.

FWIW Trevor Ariza is 6'8"

Watch on YouTube

It’s not worth anything, but thanks. Obviously I was not being literal.

[Jcool0]

The year before LeBron joined the NBA he was playing against 5’10 kids named Ethan.

Maybe Essenge won’t pan out. But I would be careful counting people out because of their competition. It’s a factor to me but not a big one.

FWIW Trevor Ariza is 6'8"

Watch on YouTube

It’s not worth anything, but thanks. Obviously I was not being literal.

Didn't think you were being literal but also a really out there comparison to be making so i had to post it.

[nomorezorro]

the median player in basically every professional league is going to be better than the median player in the ncaa

obviously there are no cooper flaggs in the bundesliga, but the absence of top-end talent is outweighed by the fact that definitionally, every single person in the league is good enough to play professionally

[Jvaughn]

Updated Prospect Breakdown on one of my favorites:

Watch on YouTube

In every video I see, it looks like he's playing against mannequins. Absolute cones on defense. I like him, but are you really sure about the quality? So many are sure he's BPA. I am nowhere near making that concession.

He's on a different level, athletically than the players he's playing with, but he still has well above average NBA athleticism. The big thing with me is that he has great functional athleticism. He's not going to be regularly blowing by NBA competition, but he's definitely going to be active. It's not like PAW where he technically has elite athleticism, but doesn't actually use it on the court.

The things I think Noa will struggle with initially will be the NBA speed, and just knowing how to pick his spots so the game doesn't overwhelm him, and then obviously the strength issue. Neither one of those are irregular for NBA rookies. He's definitely a project, but these are the types of swings you take in our draft position. We'll just have to be patient. That being said, if the draft ends up going the way it's projected, NOA will be BPA at 12.

[kodo]

Updated Prospect Breakdown on one of my favorites:

Watch on YouTube

In every video I see, it looks like he's playing against mannequins. Absolute cones on defense. I like him, but are you really sure about the quality? So many are sure he's BPA. I am nowhere near making that concession.

I remember in the Patrick draft some euroleague watchers were saying Killian Hayes shouldn't even be a first rounder because Ulm plays against really low level competition (and Hayes didn't destroy them). They were baffled by him projecting high, it was similar with Mario Hezonja.

That being said, Ja Morant also played against really laughable competition and it would have been a mistake to pass on him. Players can only beat who is on court with them.

[Jcool0]

Updated Prospect Breakdown on one of my favorites:

Watch on YouTube

In every video I see, it looks like he's playing against mannequins. Absolute cones on defense. I like him, but are you really sure about the quality? So many are sure he's BPA. I am nowhere near making that concession.

I remember in the Patrick draft some euroleague watchers were saying Killian Hayes shouldn't even be a first rounder because Ulm plays against really low level competition (and Hayes didn't destroy them). They were baffled by him projecting high, it was similar with Mario Hezonja.

That being said, Ja Morant also played against really laughable competition and it would have been a mistake to pass on him. Players can only beat who is on court with them.

Ja Morant put up a triple double in round 1 of the NCAA tournament against 5th seed Marquette & went #2 in the draft (hindsight maybe should of gone #1). We need to stop using these great players putting up big numbers as comparisons. Noa is averaging 14/8 in the playoffs which are good numbers for him but there is a reason he is being looked at possibly being around at 8-15 & not top 3.

[Jcool0]

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[burlydee]

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Tre Johnson reminds me of Michael Redd to a tee. The good and the bad. He's by far the best shooter on this list.

[Red Larrivee]

"in that range" i did not say just the 12th pick. Also over half that list is better then WCJ. As a 25 year old on a playoff team WCJ averaged 9.1 points on 46% shooting (23% from 3) with 7.2 rebounds and 0.6 blocks. I hope the Bulls get someone better then that at 12.

My fault.

Picks 12-14 (Since 2000):

All-NBA or All-Star Appearances (8%):
Jalen Williams
Donovan Mitchell
Tyrese Haliburton
Tyler Herro
Zach LaVine
Bam Adebayo

Everyone else (92%):
Derek Lively
Nikola Topic
Josh Primo
PJ Washington
Miles Bridges
Luke Kennard
Taurean Prince
Trey Lyles
Dario Saric
Steven Adams
Jeremy Lamb
Alec Burks
Xavier Henry
Gerald Henderson
Nick Collison
Robert Swift
Jason Thompson
Ethan Thomas
Thaddeus Young
Yaroslav Korolev
Melvin Ely
Vlad Rad
Hilton Armstrong
Gradey Dick
Devin Carter
Jalen Duren
Chris Duarte
Kira Lewis
Jerome Robinson
Georgios Papagiannis
Kelly Olynyk
Kendall Marshall
Tyler Hansbrough
Marcus Morris
Ed Davis
Thabo Sefolosha
Branden Rush
Julian Wright
Sean May
Sebastian Telfair
Marcus Haislip
Marcus Banks
Courtney Alexander
Carlton Carrington
Jordan Hawkins
Michael Porter Jr
Moses Moody
Aaron Nesmith
Ochai Agbaji
Cam Payne
Romeo Langford
Denzel Valentine
TJ Warren
Earl Clark
Markieff Morris
Bazz Muhammad
Patrick Patterson
John Henson
Anthony Randolph
Ronnie Brewer
Luke Ridenour
Fred Jones
Al Thornton
Troy Murphy
Rashad McCants
Kris Humphries
Mateen Cleaves

Again, let's just be realistic about what this pick is. All-stars are rarely picked here. Not getting one here can't possibly be considered a disappointment no matter how hard you scout. If we draft Sorber and he has the same career as Carter, I'd consider that a relative win given the amount of useless players that are traditionally picked in our range.

[DuckIII]

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Tre Johnson reminds me of Michael Redd to a tee. The good and the bad. He's by far the best shooter on this list.

It’s hard to say a guy is a better prospect than a guy who ended up being really damn good, but Tre is a better prospect. The one thing that gets overlooked with him is his passing. He’s a really excellent passer for a “pure” shooting guard. I think there’s a very real chance he ends up the 3rd best player in this draft.

[TheSuzerain]

the median player in basically every professional league is going to be better than the median player in the ncaa

obviously there are no cooper flaggs in the bundesliga, but the absence of top-end talent is outweighed by the fact that definitionally, every single person in the league is good enough to play professionally

That's true definitionally of NCAA basketball at this point as well.