2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

I’ve come to the conclusion that the guy who does the best draft prospect analysis is Cole Zwicker of thestepien.com and frequent guest of the Game Theory podcast. I believe his top 3 last year were Luka, Trae, and JJJ in that order, which seems spot on. He’s participating in a top 30 big board 3-part podcast series on Game Theory, and they’ve only done 30-21 in reverse order so far. I’m very curious what he says about the players in our range.


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He is absolutely the QB1 draft analyst right now.

[Kurt Heimlich]

Going back to 2000 in every draft there have been productive pros and all-star level players picked after 14. Just because they weren't picked at 14 doesn't mean there wasn't talent there.

Most agree that after the first few picks there's a huge dropoff, and honestly I don't see much difference in the talent level in this draft from pick 7-25. And if you can get a handful of players of that level for the same price, why not.

It's nearly universally agreed that up to pick 7 or 8, there is a tier. Bulls pick 7.

You think there's a large talent gap between Coby White and Romeo Langford/NAW?

I wouldn't say large, but I'd say there is a gap. Coby as a freshman put up 16/4/4 in 28.5mpg on a Championship contending team in the toughest conference in NCAA. With Langford you worry about the shooting and obviously he's not the distributor Coby is. With NAW he's a 2nd year player who probably isn't on Coby's level as far as quickness off the dribble. Coby's superior offensive talent (shot, handle, quickness) and superior production at a younger age (1.5 younger than NAW, .5 for Langford) give him the nod for me.

But the top 8 guys are pretty widely and consistently the same 8 guys in several mock drafts (in various orders). So yes, I'd say there is an evident tier change after 8.

[League Circles]

I'm pretty sure on 6 guys in my 7 man board:

Zion
Morant
RJ
Garland
Hunter
White

My 7th is still a toss up between:
Little
Langford
Herro
Reddish
(yes I would prob take all these guys over Culver I'm not forgetting him)

[Jvaughn]

It's nearly universally agreed that up to pick 7 or 8, there is a tier. Bulls pick 7.

You think there's a large talent gap between Coby White and Romeo Langford/NAW?

I wouldn't say large, but I'd say there is a gap. Coby as a freshman put up 16/4/4 in 28.5mpg on a Championship contending team in the toughest conference in NCAA. With Langford you worry about the shooting and obviously he's not the distributor Coby is. With NAW he's a 2nd year player who probably isn't on Coby's level as far as quickness off the dribble. Coby's superior offensive talent (shot, handle, quickness) and superior production at a younger age (1.5 younger than NAW, .5 for Langford) give him the nod for me.

But the top 8 guys are pretty widely and consistently the same 8 guys in several mock drafts (in various orders). So yes, I'd say there is an evident tier change after 8.

I don't really see Coby as being a good distributor though. Honestly I see it as one of his weaknesses. It's an area he's going to really have to improve. I agree Langford's shot is going to need to improve, but I don't see any glaring reasons as to why it can't.

Coby is quicker than NAW, but his speed gets him in a lot of trouble because he uses it recklessly. He often times just puts his head down and runs into trouble. I'd prefer the length and methodic movement of NAW between them. He really does seem like a SGA clone. Not the quickest, but understand how to use it.

[Kurt Heimlich]

You think there's a large talent gap between Coby White and Romeo Langford/NAW?

I wouldn't say large, but I'd say there is a gap. Coby as a freshman put up 16/4/4 in 28.5mpg on a Championship contending team in the toughest conference in NCAA. With Langford you worry about the shooting and obviously he's not the distributor Coby is. With NAW he's a 2nd year player who probably isn't on Coby's level as far as quickness off the dribble. Coby's superior offensive talent (shot, handle, quickness) and superior production at a younger age (1.5 younger than NAW, .5 for Langford) give him the nod for me.

But the top 8 guys are pretty widely and consistently the same 8 guys in several mock drafts (in various orders). So yes, I'd say there is an evident tier change after 8.

I don't really see Coby as being a good distributor though. Honestly I see it as one of his weaknesses. It's an area he's going to really have to improve. I agree Langford's shot is going to need to improve, but I don't see any glaring reasons as to why it can't.

Coby is quicker than NAW, but his speed gets him in a lot of trouble because he uses it recklessly. He often times just puts his head down and runs into trouble. I'd prefer the length and methodic movement of NAW between them. He really does seem like a SGA clone. Not the quickest, but understand how to use it.

I didnt call him a good distributor. Only a better distributor than Langford.

I like NAW too, but hes 1.5 years older developmentally than coby as well. Coby is the higher upside guy based on his production at his age along with his superior quickness at his size. Thus the tier up given to him by essentially everyone.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

Coby White’s fine. But we’re talking about a catch-and-shoot guy who guards one position. That’s the kind of asset you should be looking to draft in the 20s or sign in free agency. The 7th pick is just too damn much.

[drosereturn]

I wouldn't say large, but I'd say there is a gap. Coby as a freshman put up 16/4/4 in 28.5mpg on a Championship contending team in the toughest conference in NCAA. With Langford you worry about the shooting and obviously he's not the distributor Coby is. With NAW he's a 2nd year player who probably isn't on Coby's level as far as quickness off the dribble. Coby's superior offensive talent (shot, handle, quickness) and superior production at a younger age (1.5 younger than NAW, .5 for Langford) give him the nod for me.

But the top 8 guys are pretty widely and consistently the same 8 guys in several mock drafts (in various orders). So yes, I'd say there is an evident tier change after 8.

I don't really see Coby as being a good distributor though. Honestly I see it as one of his weaknesses. It's an area he's going to really have to improve. I agree Langford's shot is going to need to improve, but I don't see any glaring reasons as to why it can't.

Coby is quicker than NAW, but his speed gets him in a lot of trouble because he uses it recklessly. He often times just puts his head down and runs into trouble. I'd prefer the length and methodic movement of NAW between them. He really does seem like a SGA clone. Not the quickest, but understand how to use it.

I didnt call him a good distributor. Only a better distributor than Langford.

I like NAW too, but hes 1.5 years older developmentally than coby as well. Coby is the higher upside guy based on his production at his age along with his superior quickness at his size. Thus the tier up given to him by essentially everyone.

If NAW becomes similar to SGA, it would be crazy not to draft him. He is a prospect that has literally no weakness and I am surprised he is available in the mid teens in a draft this weak. Actually starting to prefer NAW to Coby. Give me the fundamentally sound player.

[Jcool0]

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[Kurt Heimlich]

I don't really see Coby as being a good distributor though. Honestly I see it as one of his weaknesses. It's an area he's going to really have to improve. I agree Langford's shot is going to need to improve, but I don't see any glaring reasons as to why it can't.

Coby is quicker than NAW, but his speed gets him in a lot of trouble because he uses it recklessly. He often times just puts his head down and runs into trouble. I'd prefer the length and methodic movement of NAW between them. He really does seem like a SGA clone. Not the quickest, but understand how to use it.

I didnt call him a good distributor. Only a better distributor than Langford.

I like NAW too, but hes 1.5 years older developmentally than coby as well. Coby is the higher upside guy based on his production at his age along with his superior quickness at his size. Thus the tier up given to him by essentially everyone.

If NAW becomes similar to SGA, it would be crazy not to draft him. He is a prospect that has literally no weakness and I am surprised he is available in the mid teens in a draft this weak. Actually starting to prefer NAW to Coby. Give me the fundamentally sound player.

NAW isnt the prospect SGA was though. That's the danger of using comparisons instead of going off of what the guys have done, their measurables and where they're at in their development. You could easily compare NAW to wade baldwin who is obviously a much less flattering comp (but still statically and stylistically similar).

[Leslie Forman]

If NAW becomes similar to SGA, it would be crazy not to draft him. He is a prospect that has literally no weakness and I am surprised he is available in the mid teens in a draft this weak. Actually starting to prefer NAW to Coby. Give me the fundamentally sound player.

The way NAW is talked about, you'd think he was some four-year player who just became this good as a senior. It doesn't seem to make sense that the guy is projected in the teens while Reddish is top-10, when he was actually way better as a freshman than Reddish, too. I've never even seen NAW play, but just the way he's described…how is he not ranked higher?

I could see this draft being like the 2011 draft. After Kyrie Irving, the top-10 was filled with crap, meanwhile you had Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Klay Thompson, Tobias Harris and Chandler Parsons all go 10s-30s.

[Jvaughn]

I didnt call him a good distributor. Only a better distributor than Langford.

I like NAW too, but hes 1.5 years older developmentally than coby as well. Coby is the higher upside guy based on his production at his age along with his superior quickness at his size. Thus the tier up given to him by essentially everyone.

If NAW becomes similar to SGA, it would be crazy not to draft him. He is a prospect that has literally no weakness and I am surprised he is available in the mid teens in a draft this weak. Actually starting to prefer NAW to Coby. Give me the fundamentally sound player.

NAW isnt the prospect SGA was though. That's the danger of using comparisons instead of going off of what the guys have done, their measurables and where they're at in their development. You could easily compare NAW to wade baldwin who is obviously a much less flattering comp (but still statically and stylistically similar).

Only difference in NAW and SGA as NBA prospects is that SGA went to Kentucky. Obviously NAW is a year older than Shai was at the time, but statistically they're eerily close with NAW edging out his cousin IMO.

As far as measurables, Shai has the height and length advantage while NAW has the weight and strength advantage. I don't understand what you mean by Wade Baldwin though? I don't see how he compares with either player.

[Kurt Heimlich]

If NAW becomes similar to SGA, it would be crazy not to draft him. He is a prospect that has literally no weakness and I am surprised he is available in the mid teens in a draft this weak. Actually starting to prefer NAW to Coby. Give me the fundamentally sound player.

NAW isnt the prospect SGA was though. That's the danger of using comparisons instead of going off of what the guys have done, their measurables and where they're at in their development. You could easily compare NAW to wade baldwin who is obviously a much less flattering comp (but still statically and stylistically similar).

Only difference in NAW and SGA as NBA prospects is that SGA went to Kentucky. Obviously NAW is a year older than Shai was at the time, but statistically they're eerily close with NAW edging out his cousin IMO.

As far as measurables, Shai has the height and length advantage while NAW has the weight and strength advantage. I don't understand what you mean by Wade Baldwin though? I don't see how he compares with either player.

The same way you're comparing sga and naw. Siimilar measurables and production and both projected mid to late 1st rounders in their perspective drafts.

[cjbulls]

If NAW becomes similar to SGA, it would be crazy not to draft him. He is a prospect that has literally no weakness and I am surprised he is available in the mid teens in a draft this weak. Actually starting to prefer NAW to Coby. Give me the fundamentally sound player.

The way NAW is talked about, you'd think he was some four-year player who just became this good as a senior. It doesn't seem to make sense that the guy is projected in the teens while Reddish is top-10, when he was actually way better as a freshman than Reddish, too. I've never even seen NAW play, but just the way he's described…how is he not ranked higher?

I could see this draft being like the 2011 draft. After Kyrie Irving, the top-10 was filled with crap, meanwhile you had Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Klay Thompson, Tobias Harris and Chandler Parsons all go 10s-30s.

Because it's not about the season stats?

This is the most basic explanation for NAW vs. Coby.

NAW is a really solid player right now. But his weakness is his athleticism, something you can't change and keeps him from ever reaching anything other than run-of-the-mill starter status.

White is also a really solid player right now. His weakness is he plays so fast that he makes bad decisions. Decision making is the single easiest prospect-to-pro transition. He will get better if he fixes that correctable issue.

[Leslie Forman]

Because it's not about the season stats?

This is the most basic explanation for NAW vs. Coby.

NAW is a really solid player right now. But his weakness is his athleticism, something you can't change and keeps him from ever reaching anything other than run-of-the-mill starter status.

White is also a really solid player right now. His weakness is he plays so fast that he makes bad decisions. Decision making is the single easiest prospect-to-pro transition. He will get better if he fixes that correctable issue.

I wasn't talking about Coby White, just in general, but what makes him such as awful athlete? I've only seen highlights, not games, but I'm not really seeing what makes this guy such a worse athlete than, say, Malcom Brogdon or Khris Middleton?

"Not athletic enough" but high IQ, high all-around skill, two-way player? That is basically the cliche for a draft day steal of a wing.

[Ajosu]

When is the last time we had a draft projected to be this weak? Just curious to look back at the players in it and see how they turned out.

[cjbulls]

When is the last time we had a draft projected to be this weak? Just curious to look back at the players in it and see how they turned out.

2013. There were some good hits like McCollum, Oladipo and Giannis.

[Jcool0]

When is the last time we had a draft projected to be this weak? Just curious to look back at the players in it and see how they turned out.

2000?

1. Kenyon Martin
2. Stromile Swift
3. Darius Miles
4. Marcus Fizer
5. Mike Miller

Best player was Michael Redd who was taken 43rd or Jamal Crawford 8th.

[cjbulls]

Because it's not about the season stats?

This is the most basic explanation for NAW vs. Coby.

NAW is a really solid player right now. But his weakness is his athleticism, something you can't change and keeps him from ever reaching anything other than run-of-the-mill starter status.

White is also a really solid player right now. His weakness is he plays so fast that he makes bad decisions. Decision making is the single easiest prospect-to-pro transition. He will get better if he fixes that correctable issue.

I wasn't talking about Coby White, just in general, but what makes him such as awful athlete? I've only seen highlights, not games, but I'm not really seeing what makes this guy such a worse athlete than, say, Malcom Brogdon or Khris Middleton?

"Not athletic enough" but high IQ, high all-around skill, two-way player? That is basically the cliche for a draft day steal of a wing.

Sounds like you just want to make him better than he is. He’s not great anything or elite at anything, just good at a lot of things. He’s got decent skills but nothing standout. Not super high iq. Before he switched over to the point this year, he was a second round pick. His lack of athleticism is obvious from the tape, but also covered in every single scouting report about him. He also skipped out on the combine athletic testing.

[Jvaughn]

If NAW becomes similar to SGA, it would be crazy not to draft him. He is a prospect that has literally no weakness and I am surprised he is available in the mid teens in a draft this weak. Actually starting to prefer NAW to Coby. Give me the fundamentally sound player.

The way NAW is talked about, you'd think he was some four-year player who just became this good as a senior. It doesn't seem to make sense that the guy is projected in the teens while Reddish is top-10, when he was actually way better as a freshman than Reddish, too. I've never even seen NAW play, but just the way he's described…how is he not ranked higher?

I could see this draft being like the 2011 draft. After Kyrie Irving, the top-10 was filled with crap, meanwhile you had Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Klay Thompson, Tobias Harris and Chandler Parsons all go 10s-30s.

Because it's not about the season stats?

This is the most basic explanation for NAW vs. Coby.

NAW is a really solid player right now. But his weakness is his athleticism, something you can't change and keeps him from ever reaching anything other than run-of-the-mill starter status.

White is also a really solid player right now. His weakness is he plays so fast that he makes bad decisions. Decision making is the single easiest prospect-to-pro transition. He will get better if he fixes that correctable issue.

Please explain to me what this is based off of? Never ever heard someone say you can just fix decision making.

[Ajosu]

When is the last time we had a draft projected to be this weak? Just curious to look back at the players in it and see how they turned out.

2013. There were some good hits like McCollum, Oladipo and Giannis.

When is the last time we had a draft projected to be this weak? Just curious to look back at the players in it and see how they turned out.

2000?

1. Kenyon Martin
2. Stromile Swift
3. Darius Miles
4. Marcus Fizer
5. Mike Miller

Best player was Michael Redd who was taken 43rd or Jamal Crawford 8th.

Yikes. 2000 was truly terrible. Lets hope this doesn't turn out that bad. I don't remember what 2013 was projected to be, but I'd feel much better if we wound up with that calibre of a draft. Not too much to ask for a chance at the next Giannis . But hell, if we somehow walk away with a McCollum/Oladpo/Redd/Crawford level player, I'd consider it a huge win. Just feels like there is a lot of luck involved, though.