Coronavirus

[TheStig]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/look-think-im-kind-virus-130032533.html

"Across the U.S., Asian Americans have become the target of xenophobic and bigoted attacks as the pandemic wreaks havoc in American society. Experts said the scapegoating is fueled by harmful rhetoric from politicians, including the president, who later called for the protection of Asian Americans from xenophobic attacks after repeatedly calling COVID-19 the "Chinese virus.""

Unsurprising. Any excuse for some people to outwardly be racist, with justificiation (in their minds) and they'll jump at that opportunity.

What do you expect? The President of the United States has been calling it a Chinese virus. What do you expect from some people who are not that bright? They took it and ran with it.

[TheStig]

We won’t though. We still have most of the states not doing shelter in place. Don’t know if people or our economy could survive a true 4 month lockdown like China did.

We absolutely could not. Unemployment would be so high, the employed would come home to nothing. We may already be facing 30% unemployment. It's unfathomable.

https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2020-03-23/fed-official-unemployment-could-hit-30-as-coronavirus-slams-economy

the economy is not going disappear, folks. it's gonna be painful for most people to be sure, and there will be a long-term drag (maybe even long-term recession), but all the numbers will rapidly rebound as soon as we're mostly out of the woods on the virus and government restrictions are lifted. many if not most of the people who lose their jobs will even end up back in those same jobs or something similar

I think there will be sectors that will be crushed like hospitality and multifam and retail landlords. Even if they clear up the virus in a month, people won't have the money or willingness to travel, retailers are closed and will be well behind on rent and multifam properties will likely be hit hard too and operating on slim margins.

That being said, since this is not a cause of the system, I think most will recover quicker than normal.

[The Box Office]

The flu is weak. I've had it multiple times. The flu is decades old with a crap ton of research and vaccines on the ready. There's nothing to worry about.

Covid-19 is brand new. The top doctors and scientists are still learning it on the fly. There are tons of questions and Covid is highly contagious. I'm learning that Covid attacks the lungs, heart AND liver (or was it kidneys, I forgot). I thought it was just the lungs.

This is what happens when the world's top doctors and scientists are caught by surprise with nothing to mitigate the spread, but to stay the EFF home. That's why it's a pandemic. Covid-19 is causing mega huge catastrophe.

When people DO NOT spend money. When people don't show up. When there is barely any money circulating. When small businesses, home owners, apartment renters, and big businesses can't pay mortgages/rent then OH DAMN. People are locked down staying home being unproductive and inefficient. People gaining weight, drinking alcohol, or doing drugs to escape the depression.

The entire United States. Almost the entire world. All at the same time. The money flowing stopped. For many consecutive days. Consecutive weeks. Consecutive months. THAT has never happened within the last 100 years.

Unemployment claims was last reported at 3.3 million, which surged to that level in a few days. Not weeks. Not months. Not years. DAYS. And it's still rising fast as I type this. The Housing Crash of 2008 was child's play.

Yeah, the economy is not gonna rebound quickly. That's fairy tales. Be real.

The good news: https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-a-lead-vaccine-candidate-for-covid-19-landmark-new-partnership-with-u-s-department-of-health-human-services-and-commitment-to-supply-one-billion-vaccines-worldwide-for-emergency-pandemic-use

There are multiple vaccines in testing RIGHT NOW. Johnson & Johnson are not the only ones in this fight. They're just the biggest company.

Bad news: Months of infections and lock downs ahead. Trials take 3 months at least. We're not seeing any vaccine/antiviral/whatever medicine until 2021. That's the announcement date pattern I noticed from everything I read and watched so far. Even Johnson & Johnson stated the 2021 timeline in the statement I linked.

Super Ugly dark times. Mega depressing and crushing. The rest of 2020 is a quiet invisible war.

[wolffy]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/look-think-im-kind-virus-130032533.html

"Across the U.S., Asian Americans have become the target of xenophobic and bigoted attacks as the pandemic wreaks havoc in American society. Experts said the scapegoating is fueled by harmful rhetoric from politicians, including the president, who later called for the protection of Asian Americans from xenophobic attacks after repeatedly calling COVID-19 the "Chinese virus.""

Unsurprising. Any excuse for some people to outwardly be racist, with justificiation (in their minds) and they'll jump at that opportunity.

What do you expect? The President of the United States has been calling it a Chinese virus. What do you expect from some people who are not that bright? They took it and ran with it.

What came first the chicken or the egg? Id say that racism that rears its ugly head more lately is the reason trump was elected in the first place.

[DuckIII]

Unsurprising. Any excuse for some people to outwardly be racist, with justificiation (in their minds) and they'll jump at that opportunity.

What do you expect? The President of the United States has been calling it a Chinese virus. What do you expect from some people who are not that bright? They took it and ran with it.

What came first the chicken or the egg? Id say that racism that rears its ugly head more lately is the reason trump was elected in the first place.

It’s a symbiotic relationship and has been since he began exploring a run.

[Dieselbound&Down]

We absolutely could not. Unemployment would be so high, the employed would come home to nothing. We may already be facing 30% unemployment. It's unfathomable.

https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2020-03-23/fed-official-unemployment-could-hit-30-as-coronavirus-slams-economy

the economy is not going disappear, folks. it's gonna be painful for most people to be sure, and there will be a long-term drag (maybe even long-term recession), but all the numbers will rapidly rebound as soon as we're mostly out of the woods on the virus and government restrictions are lifted. many if not most of the people who lose their jobs will even end up back in those same jobs or something similar

I think there will be sectors that will be crushed like hospitality and multifam and retail landlords. Even if they clear up the virus in a month, people won't have the money or willingness to travel, retailers are closed and will be well behind on rent and multifam properties will likely be hit hard too and operating on slim margins.

That being said, since this is not a cause of the system, I think most will recover quicker than normal.

I don't think there is a "normal" baseline to compare this against.

Best case, there is the short term spike in unemployment claims but within 6 weeks this drops back to normal ranges. Hopefully employers have enough cash reserves to start hiring again in anticipation of the economy picking up, minimizing the unemployment lag. But I'm not sure how realistic that is, that employers will just wake up one day and all decide to hire.

[Michael Jackson]

the economy is not going disappear, folks. it's gonna be painful for most people to be sure, and there will be a long-term drag (maybe even long-term recession), but all the numbers will rapidly rebound as soon as we're mostly out of the woods on the virus and government restrictions are lifted. many if not most of the people who lose their jobs will even end up back in those same jobs or something similar

I think there will be sectors that will be crushed like hospitality and multifam and retail landlords. Even if they clear up the virus in a month, people won't have the money or willingness to travel, retailers are closed and will be well behind on rent and multifam properties will likely be hit hard too and operating on slim margins.

That being said, since this is not a cause of the system, I think most will recover quicker than normal.

I don't think there is a "normal" baseline to compare this against.

Best case, there is the short term spike in unemployment claims but within 6 weeks this drops back to normal ranges. Hopefully employers have enough cash reserves to start hiring again in anticipation of the economy picking up, minimizing the unemployment lag. But I'm not sure how realistic that is, that employers will just wake up one day and all decide to hire.

Not very likely I would assume because unless there is a big movement (as in everyone goes back to work like normal instantly) they will be slow to rehire people. Likely will have larger debt incurred with less business. We are going to have to erase so much of the economy for this to even make sense.

[Dieselbound&Down]

I think there will be sectors that will be crushed like hospitality and multifam and retail landlords. Even if they clear up the virus in a month, people won't have the money or willingness to travel, retailers are closed and will be well behind on rent and multifam properties will likely be hit hard too and operating on slim margins.

That being said, since this is not a cause of the system, I think most will recover quicker than normal.

I don't think there is a "normal" baseline to compare this against.

Best case, there is the short term spike in unemployment claims but within 6 weeks this drops back to normal ranges. Hopefully employers have enough cash reserves to start hiring again in anticipation of the economy picking up, minimizing the unemployment lag. But I'm not sure how realistic that is, that employers will just wake up one day and all decide to hire.

Not very likely I would assume because unless there is a big movement (as in everyone goes back to work like normal instantly) they will be slow to rehire people. Likely will have larger debt incurred with less business. We are going to have to erase so much of the economy for this to even make sense.

Oh, I completely agree. This is going to completely reorder sections of the economy. The only winners in some areas may be the small players who are smart, don't have the business to lose and can staff up quickly as opportunities arise. Any larger organization is likely going to be strictly in survival mode for a long time. Even after they survive, they will likely have debts to erase before they are ready for any real growth. The exception will be those close enough to Mnuchin that they can get a bail out from the kitty of federal funds that will get doled out and a few industries that will have a fairly recurring revenue stream that is not as dependent on brick and mortar operations or even manpower.

[Dresden]

Speaking for the industry I am in- construction- I think we will bounce back pretty rapidly. We did after 2008. There will a lot of pent up demand. Although of course industries that were hard hit like restaurants and hotels may not be doing much spending for awhile. But the housing market here in SF where I live is always very active. Contractors have a lot of work in the pipeline or currently under way, and as soon as the shelter in place orders are lifted, we will be raring to go. And there will be a lot of workers looking for jobs from other sectors, too, so hiring will be pretty easy (unlike the past few years, where the labor market for construction workers has been extremely tight).

[BigUps]

The data is questionable EVERYWHERE. We just need to move on from questioning a lot of it. It’s tough to, because of the social and economic impact, but you just have to move on from it and trust the modeling is accurate enough with the data they have available to them.

This is precisely the conclusion the people who submit fraudulent data hope you will reach. Everyone can't be trusted, so screw it, let's not discuss whether some sets of data are more reliable than others.

i think you're misinterpreting what he said. he's saying that we can't just throw out all the data that's out there simply because it's incomplete (due to variable testing)

Exactly. You can't wait for good data either because if you do, this thing only grows and grows and grows. Those in positions that actually have the data at their fingertips and are interpreting the data with countries best minds and this is the outcome. I can't buy into a conspiracy theory here. Nobody wins if the economy collapses. They are doing the best they can with the data they have.

Thats my take.

[musiqsoulchild]

the economy is not going disappear, folks. it's gonna be painful for most people to be sure, and there will be a long-term drag (maybe even long-term recession), but all the numbers will rapidly rebound as soon as we're mostly out of the woods on the virus and government restrictions are lifted. many if not most of the people who lose their jobs will even end up back in those same jobs or something similar

I think there will be sectors that will be crushed like hospitality and multifam and retail landlords. Even if they clear up the virus in a month, people won't have the money or willingness to travel, retailers are closed and will be well behind on rent and multifam properties will likely be hit hard too and operating on slim margins.

That being said, since this is not a cause of the system, I think most will recover quicker than normal.

I don't think there is a "normal" baseline to compare this against.

Best case, there is the short term spike in unemployment claims but within 6 weeks this drops back to normal ranges. Hopefully employers have enough cash reserves to start hiring again in anticipation of the economy picking up, minimizing the unemployment lag. But I'm not sure how realistic that is, that employers will just wake up one day and all decide to hire.

I'll be very realistic. I work for a very big employer. 100k plus globally employed.

Its NOT looking good.

[BigUps]

Read on Twitter

[musiqsoulchild]

Read on Twitter

Big Ups...not directed at you at all...just the information in your post.

I find it funny that the US intelligence resources are calling out China. Our own President has downplayed this Virus and its impact for MONTHS now.

Remember, we were all supposed to be flooding churches for Easter?

Everyone around the world is dealing with uncertainty. Finding someone to pin blame on MIGHT make us feel better for a few days and give us a new "enemy" to direct our pent up rage on.

But its doesnt deal with the real issue. That this virus does not see nations, color, creed and religion. It will burn it's way through.

In such times, my philosophy has always been to chill the heck out and not focus on blaming someone/something. This situation is Biblical.

It's time to be more Job ( deal with suffering through faith and family) than John ( rail against the powers that be).

[stl705]

I’m no economist, or any type of expert in this situation. With that said, I don’t see any way this thing blows over quickly, and likewise I don’t see much hope for the economy. I truly believe the Fed Gov’t should start printing out checks monthly.

What’s the worst case scenario? Severely devaluing the dollar? I’m not seeing any other way through this than printing checks monthly for american citizens and families to keep them from losing everything.

[Chi town]

Read on Twitter

Old news. Many have been saying it here for weeks.

Buckle up. It's going to be a long dark ride.

[chefo]

Read on Twitter

Big Ups...not directed at you at all...just the information in your post.

I find it funny that the US intelligence resources are calling out China. Our own President has downplayed this Virus and its impact for MONTHS now.

Remember, we were all supposed to be flooding churches for Easter?

Everyone around the world is dealing with uncertainty. Finding someone to pin blame on MIGHT make us feel better for a few days and give us a new "enemy" to direct our pent up rage on.

But its doesnt deal with the real issue. That this virus does not see nations, color, creed and religion. It will burn it's way through.

In such times, my philosophy has always been to chill the heck out and not focus on blaming someone/something. This situation is Biblical.

It's time to be more Job ( deal with suffering through faith and family) than John ( rail against the powers that be).

They are pointing fingers... and actually their argument is valid. Not at the Chinese people, but at the CCP. Wuhan is a major metro area, the size of LA and NY. They said they had 50k cases and it was contained.

What do you think was going to happen if they said 'Wuhan has 3M cases and 50K dead'? How about 5M cases and 100K deaths nation-wide? Or 20M cases and 500k dead? How about we let 1/3 of the population in that metro area, many of whom were probably infected, travel around the world for the Chinese New Year? In other words... not only is it not contained by any stretch, but it's about to hit you like a train going full speed?

Do you think the Italians would have let tens of thousands of Chinese migrant workers come back from China to work in the factories in Northern Italy? Do you think the CCP lying about human-to-human transmission for months post outbreak made no difference to people who were coordinating the response?

Here's what I think happened: either in order to save face in domestic politics, or internationally, the CCP lied in a big way. All the authorities around the world thought based on published Chinese data--it's just a worse SARS, and we'll be OK. And then it blind-sided everyone like few things in history.

You are correct that the virus doesn't care about race or nationality, and we need to look forward. But given that the Brits and the US both came out saying that they know for a fact that the Chinese lied 'bigly' (an order of magnitude or more) about what they were dealing with, I can see a big reaction on the country-level once this is over with. The Chinese raking in billions of $ from new medical contracts in Europe is not endearing them to many either, given what is becoming public knowledge as we speak. They will punish the Chinese state once they can and China may face international isolation and global trade wars as a consequence.

Were the politicians naïve to trust anything that came out of the CCP? Sure. It doesn't excuse their delayed reaction time. At the same time, when it comes to global plagues like this one, I could see where they would expect some degree of honesty.

If I were a Chinese citizen, I'd be just as mad as the CCP for keeping this under wraps as anybody else because I bet you more Chinese have died from that diseases than all the rest of the world combined, so far at least. FYI, that's what the communists did in Eastern Europe post Chernobyl. While the top brass were hiding in underground bunkers meant for nuclear war, the common people were asked to go march in parades in the radioactive rain (true story) and not told a thing. It wasn't until later when news was smuggled through the iron curtain that people realized how their own 'leadership' betrayed them in such a cowardly manner.

Anyhow, this is now part of life and we need to find ways to deal with it.

P.S. I think how the communist leadership acted after Chernobyl greatly sped up these regimes downfall. People can take lots of $hyte, but letting their kids go out to sing praises to the communist order in the radioactive rain is not on the list.

[GinWeary]

I have had to turn a blind eye to both local Illinois and national news for the last few days. After a while, I have noticed "news fatigue", and everything starts to sound the same, and I can't listen to Trump this often. The numbers are constantly changing, but nothing else of significance has developed. Hopefully, in the next few weeks we can begin to see some of the positives from isolating.

I think everyone needs to take a step back and disconnect from the media barrage. We are going to be stuck inside for a while, and people will need to take a breath from time to time. I am used to working remotely, and would often go into the city, visit friends in between projects. However, working from home 100%, and always being connected to news and notifications, I feel like my home is more office and news studio lately.

[musiqsoulchild]

Read on Twitter

Big Ups...not directed at you at all...just the information in your post.

I find it funny that the US intelligence resources are calling out China. Our own President has downplayed this Virus and its impact for MONTHS now.

Remember, we were all supposed to be flooding churches for Easter?

Everyone around the world is dealing with uncertainty. Finding someone to pin blame on MIGHT make us feel better for a few days and give us a new "enemy" to direct our pent up rage on.

But its doesnt deal with the real issue. That this virus does not see nations, color, creed and religion. It will burn it's way through.

In such times, my philosophy has always been to chill the heck out and not focus on blaming someone/something. This situation is Biblical.

It's time to be more Job ( deal with suffering through faith and family) than John ( rail against the powers that be).

They are pointing fingers... and actually their argument is valid. Not at the Chinese people, but at the CCP. Wuhan is a major metro area, the size of LA and NY. They said they had 50k cases and it was contained.

What do you think was going to happen if they said 'Wuhan has 3M cases and 50K dead'? How about 5M cases and 100K deaths nation-wide? Or 20M cases and 500k dead? How about we let 1/3 of the population in that metro area, many of whom were probably infected, travel around the world for the Chinese New Year? In other words... not only is it not contained by any stretch, but it's about to hit you like a train going full speed?

Do you think the Italians would have let tens of thousands of Chinese migrant workers come back from China to work in the factories in Northern Italy? Do you think the CCP lying about human-to-human transmission for months post outbreak made no difference to people who were coordinating the response?

Here's what I think happened: either in order to save face in domestic politics, or internationally, the CCP lied in a big way. All the authorities around the world thought based on published Chinese data--it's just a worse SARS, and we'll be OK. And then it blind-sided everyone like few things in history.

You are correct that the virus doesn't care about race or nationality, and we need to look forward. But given that the Brits and the US both came out saying that they know for a fact that the Chinese lied 'bigly' (an order of magnitude or more) about what they were dealing with, I can see a big reaction on the country-level once this is over with. The Chinese raking in billions of $ from new medical contracts in Europe is not endearing them to many either, given what is becoming public knowledge as we speak. They will punish the Chinese state once they can and China may face international isolation and global trade wars as a consequence.

Were the politicians naïve to trust anything that came out of the CCP? Sure. It doesn't excuse their delayed reaction time. At the same time, when it comes to global plagues like this one, I could see where they would expect some degree of honesty.

If I were a Chinese citizen, I'd be just as mad as the CCP for keeping this under wraps as anybody else because I bet you more Chinese have died from that diseases than all the rest of the world combined, so far at least. FYI, that's what the communists did in Eastern Europe post Chernobyl. While the top brass were hiding in underground bunkers meant for nuclear war, the common people were asked to go march in parades in the radioactive rain (true story) and not told a thing. It wasn't until later when news was smuggled through the iron curtain that people realized how their own 'leadership' betrayed them in such a cowardly manner.

Anyhow, this is now part of life and we need to find ways to deal with it.

P.S. I think how the communist leadership acted after Chernobyl greatly sped up these regimes downfall. People can take lots of $hyte, but letting their kids go out to sing praises to the communist order in the radioactive rain is not on the list.

Astute post. Not disagreeing with anything you said.

However, the pound of flesh is best claimed AFTER this is all said and done.

Now isnt the time for finger pointing. We cant function now or after this is over without China. We can impose punitive measures as will Europe.

By the way, this is one of the reasons why Obama was a big advocate of the CPT - he wanted to create a non-Chinese trade route that would have levelled the playing field out dramatically.

Many Americans (Bernie supporters as well as Turmp supporters) hated CPT. I still dont think they know why.

[lemonmellow]

.

[Dresden]

Read on Twitter

Big Ups...not directed at you at all...just the information in your post.

I find it funny that the US intelligence resources are calling out China. Our own President has downplayed this Virus and its impact for MONTHS now.

Remember, we were all supposed to be flooding churches for Easter?

Everyone around the world is dealing with uncertainty. Finding someone to pin blame on MIGHT make us feel better for a few days and give us a new "enemy" to direct our pent up rage on.

But its doesnt deal with the real issue. That this virus does not see nations, color, creed and religion. It will burn it's way through.

In such times, my philosophy has always been to chill the heck out and not focus on blaming someone/something. This situation is Biblical.

It's time to be more Job ( deal with suffering through faith and family) than John ( rail against the powers that be).

They are pointing fingers... and actually their argument is valid. Not at the Chinese people, but at the CCP. Wuhan is a major metro area, the size of LA and NY. They said they had 50k cases and it was contained.

What do you think was going to happen if they said 'Wuhan has 3M cases and 50K dead'? How about 5M cases and 100K deaths nation-wide? Or 20M cases and 500k dead? How about we let 1/3 of the population in that metro area, many of whom were probably infected, travel around the world for the Chinese New Year? In other words... not only is it not contained by any stretch, but it's about to hit you like a train going full speed?

Do you think the Italians would have let tens of thousands of Chinese migrant workers come back from China to work in the factories in Northern Italy? Do you think the CCP lying about human-to-human transmission for months post outbreak made no difference to people who were coordinating the response?

Here's what I think happened: either in order to save face in domestic politics, or internationally, the CCP lied in a big way. All the authorities around the world thought based on published Chinese data--it's just a worse SARS, and we'll be OK. And then it blind-sided everyone like few things in history.

You are correct that the virus doesn't care about race or nationality, and we need to look forward. But given that the Brits and the US both came out saying that they know for a fact that the Chinese lied 'bigly' (an order of magnitude or more) about what they were dealing with, I can see a big reaction on the country-level once this is over with. The Chinese raking in billions of $ from new medical contracts in Europe is not endearing them to many either, given what is becoming public knowledge as we speak. They will punish the Chinese state once they can and China may face international isolation and global trade wars as a consequence.

Were the politicians naïve to trust anything that came out of the CCP? Sure. It doesn't excuse their delayed reaction time. At the same time, when it comes to global plagues like this one, I could see where they would expect some degree of honesty.

If I were a Chinese citizen, I'd be just as mad as the CCP for keeping this under wraps as anybody else because I bet you more Chinese have died from that diseases than all the rest of the world combined, so far at least. FYI, that's what the communists did in Eastern Europe post Chernobyl. While the top brass were hiding in underground bunkers meant for nuclear war, the common people were asked to go march in parades in the radioactive rain (true story) and not told a thing. It wasn't until later when news was smuggled through the iron curtain that people realized how their own 'leadership' betrayed them in such a cowardly manner.

Anyhow, this is now part of life and we need to find ways to deal with it.

P.S. I think how the communist leadership acted after Chernobyl greatly sped up these regimes downfall. People can take lots of $hyte, but letting their kids go out to sing praises to the communist order in the radioactive rain is not on the list.

I didn't read anything in that article that is either earth shatteringly new, or very specific. Yeah, China under-reported cases early on. But by what factor is not known. If it's by 100x, that is a big deal. If deaths were 500K and not 3K, that's a big deal. But they haven't said that yet. It's just speculation. And people are running with it as it was a fact.

Imperial College of London just last week issued a report that China was pretty accurately reporting numbers now, to the best of their knowledge.

I find it laughable that Pence is now using this story to shift blame- as if we had known earlier the full extent, maybe we would have acted differently. But would we? As the first case was found in the US, Trump was still telling everyone that it would not be a problem in the US, and soon we'd be back to having zero cases. Even when we knew it WAS becoming a big deal in other places, they were still very slow to react to the gravity of the situation, and make adequate preparations, like ordering more PPE to be made.

It was revealed recently that one of our agencies had submitted a report to the Trump admin. last year, warning of exactly this sort of a pandemic. So why didn't they act on that information back then, to get better prepared? He also blames Obama for "leaving the shelves bare"- yet he's had 3+ years to correct the situation. They disbanded a pandemic unit within the CDC. The abolished an office they had in China that studied infectious diseases. Yet now they want to say it's all China's fault we were caught blind sided?

This story about "thousands of funeral urns stacked out Wuhan" sounds suspiciously like the many false reports the US intelligence services and military put out in the run up to the Iraq War. The supposed yellow cake uranium that was being sent to Iraq, the satellite photos showing a purported biological weapons factory being built outside of Baghdad, the centrifuges that were supposedly being used to enrich uranium (even though international observers pointed out that they were not the kind used to enrich bomb grade materials). All later proven to be false.

Until we know more about exact figures, and about exactly how this got spread around the world, I'm taking all this China blaming with a grain of salt.