Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[sco]

Thinking this over… Brooklyn has over $100M to spend, 0.1% win-(chip)-now aspirations as a young team, an incoming top-7 pick, an Australian GM (who has pursued several Aussies): Mills, Simmons, technically Kyrie… and nothing to lose. Giddey is borderline averaging a triple-double.

I think unless Nets draft a full-time playmaker (namely Harper… VJ, Kasparas to a lesser extent), I’m about 90% expecting them to make that $166M/4Y max offer to Giddey. Which wouldn’t be the end of the world to match (better than giving him the $224M/5Y extension with larger raises). But it’s starting to feel like that max offer is Giddey’s to lose. He really raised his stock last month, and I can’t think of 1 other team in the NBA as potentially interested/fitting as Brooklyn.

I doubt it. Not that Giddey wouldn’t fit with Cam Thomas and Cam Johnson - he would. But I also don’t think he would make them a top 4 team in the East. Brooklyn seems to be looking for a complete rebuild, having moved current assets for future ones. They tried to move Cam Johnson, too, but didn’t get a good enough offer. I think Brooklyn is looking for “the guy,” and while I like Giddey, I don’t view him as a legit “the guy” candidate. Don’t forget that Cam Thomas is going to get a big raise - as a guy putting up stats better than Coby’s over the course of a season, and putting up similar level stats for 2 years in a row (and two years younger than Coby).

Don’t forget that the 2nd apron really makes “bad” Max contracts hurt. A lot. Hence Brandon Ingram traded for pennies, and Zach despite rehabbing himself similarly traded for little.

I mean, who knows - they may decide that Giddey-Cam-Cam-Claxton-draft pick wing or guard plus maybe resigned Zaire Williams is the group they want to build around. But like with the Bulls, we’re talking about a group that gives you a punchers chance, at best. Bulls hopes for anything more than play in / low seed are based on Matas exploding. Meanwhile, Cam Johnson is older than Lonzo Ball…

This may be the least interesting FA year in recent memory. Sorta bad for teams with cap space to use on FA. That said, if the Bulls, as I expect they'll do, say that they'll match any offer on Giddey (because they will, and while I orginally thought the statement was a bit of a bluff, his improved play has made their commitment, at any price, even higher than it was pre-ASB). If I'm BKN, I think twice about tying myself down for the 1 week period that the Bulls would have to match, and restricting myself during the busy first part of free agency and perhaps not being able to explore other FA's.

[rosenthall]

One thing I still can't quite figure out with Giddey is what skill he draws on to get to the basket so frequently.

He has the worst first step of any primary ball-handler I've ever seen, and doesn't seem to really get going until steps 2 or 3. He might be stronger than he looks, but he sorta gets bounced around like a ping-pong ball when he burrows his way to the basket, and his high center of gravity makes it easy for defenders to cut him off. Unlike Luka, I don't get the impression that he is all that great at de-celerating, and most of his drives are sorta in a straight line.

But he still maneuvers his way to the rim all game. The only thing I can reconcile it with is that his vision for the game carries over to his driving ability and he's really good at sensing when defenses are off-balance (within a fraction of a second), and uses just enough skill and ability to hit his holes. I kinda wonder if he'll be able to carry it over to his older years, but I've always found it interesting to watch.

[dougthonus]

One thing I still can't quite figure out with Giddey is what skill he draws on to get to the basket so frequently.

He has the worst first step of any primary ball-handler I've ever seen, and doesn't seem to really get going until steps 2 or 3. He might be stronger than he looks, but he sorta gets bounced around like a ping-pong ball when he burrows his way to the basket, and his high center of gravity makes it easy for defenders to cut him off. Unlike Luka, I don't get the impression that he is all that great at de-celerating, and most of his drives are sorta in a straight line.

But he still maneuvers his way to the rim all game. The only thing I can reconcile it with is that his vision for the game carries over to his driving ability and he's really good at sensing when defenses are off-balance (within a fraction of a second), and uses just enough skill and ability to hit his holes. I kinda wonder if he'll be able to carry it over to his older years, but I've always found it interesting to watch.

I think he's just a good ball handler, so can move near his full speed while dribbling. Imagine that you were trying to stop me from running past you, but you can't use your hands to stop me, and if I get to a spot before you, you lose the tie. I would be able to get past you even if you were much more athletic than me, because it's just really hard to stop someone in those conditions. The thing that makes it plausible for a defender is that dribbling a basketball makes you ridiculously slower in terms of changing direction and getting past someone. If you are a good enough ball handler it balances the athletic curve a lot.

[MrSparkle]

Thinking this over… Brooklyn has over $100M to spend, 0.1% win-(chip)-now aspirations as a young team, an incoming top-7 pick, an Australian GM (who has pursued several Aussies): Mills, Simmons, technically Kyrie… and nothing to lose. Giddey is borderline averaging a triple-double.

I think unless Nets draft a full-time playmaker (namely Harper… VJ, Kasparas to a lesser extent), I’m about 90% expecting them to make that $166M/4Y max offer to Giddey. Which wouldn’t be the end of the world to match (better than giving him the $224M/5Y extension with larger raises). But it’s starting to feel like that max offer is Giddey’s to lose. He really raised his stock last month, and I can’t think of 1 other team in the NBA as potentially interested/fitting as Brooklyn.

I doubt it. Not that Giddey wouldn’t fit with Cam Thomas and Cam Johnson - he would. But I also don’t think he would make them a top 4 team in the East. Brooklyn seems to be looking for a complete rebuild, having moved current assets for future ones. They tried to move Cam Johnson, too, but didn’t get a good enough offer. I think Brooklyn is looking for “the guy,” and while I like Giddey, I don’t view him as a legit “the guy” candidate. Don’t forget that Cam Thomas is going to get a big raise - as a guy putting up stats better than Coby’s over the course of a season, and putting up similar level stats for 2 years in a row (and two years younger than Coby).

Don’t forget that the 2nd apron really makes “bad” Max contracts hurt. A lot. Hence Brandon Ingram traded for pennies, and Zach despite rehabbing himself similarly traded for little.

I mean, who knows - they may decide that Giddey-Cam-Cam-Claxton-draft pick wing or guard plus maybe resigned Zaire Williams is the group they want to build around. But like with the Bulls, we’re talking about a group that gives you a punchers chance, at best. Bulls hopes for anything more than play in / low seed are based on Matas exploding. Meanwhile, Cam Johnson is older than Lonzo Ball…

The under-6Y RFA 4Y max is noticeably lower than a 5Y max extension… and way lower than a 7-10Y veteran max, let alone the super max. We’re talking $38M-45M salary instead of $54M-65 (ala Jaylen).

Ingram, Zach, Beal, George and all these “bad value max” guys were looking for (or got) that 10Y-in-the-league max.

Matching a RFA offer saves teams a lot of money (and skips that risky 5th year guaranteed).

Also Houston owns a swap on Brooklyn's 27 first, so I think they have reason to rebuild faster. They’ve got lots of incoming picks thanks to Phoenix. Plus, they have a strong shot at Flagg. The Cams are overpaid chuckers, so I can see why they’d want to move them. They don’t have a guy who can pass the ball.

[MrSparkle]

One thing I still can't quite figure out with Giddey is what skill he draws on to get to the basket so frequently.

He has the worst first step of any primary ball-handler I've ever seen, and doesn't seem to really get going until steps 2 or 3. He might be stronger than he looks, but he sorta gets bounced around like a ping-pong ball when he burrows his way to the basket, and his high center of gravity makes it easy for defenders to cut him off. Unlike Luka, I don't get the impression that he is all that great at de-celerating, and most of his drives are sorta in a straight line.

But he still maneuvers his way to the rim all game. The only thing I can reconcile it with is that his vision for the game carries over to his driving ability and he's really good at sensing when defenses are off-balance (within a fraction of a second), and uses just enough skill and ability to hit his holes. I kinda wonder if he'll be able to carry it over to his older years, but I've always found it interesting to watch.

If I had a nickel for every old timer who schooled my younger self at the ymca… He does use every available read to his advantage. His quick passes surprise defenders. If his 3P stops falling, that becomes much less of a weapon, but at the moment he’s drawing attention.

Also let’s not forget he’s running PnR all the time. He uses screens really well.

[sco]

One thing I still can't quite figure out with Giddey is what skill he draws on to get to the basket so frequently.

He has the worst first step of any primary ball-handler I've ever seen, and doesn't seem to really get going until steps 2 or 3. He might be stronger than he looks, but he sorta gets bounced around like a ping-pong ball when he burrows his way to the basket, and his high center of gravity makes it easy for defenders to cut him off. Unlike Luka, I don't get the impression that he is all that great at de-celerating, and most of his drives are sorta in a straight line.

But he still maneuvers his way to the rim all game. The only thing I can reconcile it with is that his vision for the game carries over to his driving ability and he's really good at sensing when defenses are off-balance (within a fraction of a second), and uses just enough skill and ability to hit his holes. I kinda wonder if he'll be able to carry it over to his older years, but I've always found it interesting to watch.

If I had a nickel for every old timer who schooled my younger self at the ymca… He does use every available read to his advantage. His quick passes surprise defenders. If his 3P stops falling, that becomes much less of a weapon, but at the moment he’s drawing attention.

Also let’s not forget he’s running PnR all the time. He uses screens really well.

Good point. I'll add that he's crafty and knows how to play angles and I've seen him more than once use angles to have one defender effectively screen another for him. Regarding his 1st step, while he may not be SGA, most of his movements are north-south (vs. east-west) which usually works to his advantage. Also he uses his size to his advantage when attacking guards.

[FriedRise]

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[ChettheJet]

There's no question that they have to resign him. How much I don't know but they really don't have a plan B if they think he'd want too much.

For what he's done for the Bulls take a look at what all the so called experts said about him when the Caruso trade was made. The question is much the same as with Coby, what teams that need a PG, and there aren't that many, have the cap space to make Giddey an offer? And those two things have to intersect. There's hardly an incentive for the Bulls to listen to S&T offers to help Josh leave or another team to improve by subtracting from what they have. And does Giddey want to go to a rebuilding team that's not ready to contend for a year or two or three IF they make the right moves and that's a big ? with any rebuild effort.

[WindyCityBorn]

There's no question that they have to resign him. How much I don't know but they really don't have a plan B if they think he'd want too much.

For what he's done for the Bulls take a look at what all the so called experts said about him when the Caruso trade was made. The question is much the same as with Coby, what teams that need a PG, and there aren't that many, have the cap space to make Giddey an offer? And those two things have to intersect. There's hardly an incentive for the Bulls to listen to S&T offers to help Josh leave or another team to improve by subtracting from what they have. And does Giddey want to go to a rebuilding team that's not ready to contend for a year or two or three IF they make the right moves and that's a big ? with any rebuild effort.

I don’t think the Bulls will even let him get to restricted free agency now. He’ll get at least the $30 million he wanted last offseason and he seems to love playing here. Both sides should be very motivated to get it done.

[brentmoney]

this guy is the real deal

[Chi town]

I’d love to see what Giddey does in a playoff series.

His confidence and game are soaring.

He’s showing that he can be a #1 that makes everyone better like the true PG’s like Nash. Won’t be your top scorer but def your best player because he makes everyone better and he can control the game.

Kid plays chess while the other team is playing checkers.

[DuckIII]

I’d love to see what Giddey does in a playoff series.

His confidence and game are soaring.

He’s showing that he can be a #1 that makes everyone better like the true PG’s like Nash. Won’t be your top scorer but def your best player because he makes everyone better and he can control the game.

#1 as the man primarily controlling the ball and being in charge of decision making and distribution. Not necessarily the leading scorer putting up the most volume. Exactly.

We debated earlier this year the notion that Giddey cannot play that role effectively for a high quality team because the guy with the ball in his hands the most MUST be your leading scorer and an iso magician with a deadly 3.

That can be true and effective but the notion that it’s the only way has never been logical to me. Because it’s not.

[Jcool0]

Big Giddey fan from the start. Thought he would be in that 17 ppg range from day 1 and while that didn't quite happen, he is now is doing what I expected. That being said while he is looking like a top 30 player right now. The big test is next season. Someone had posted on X awhile ago a chart of the last few Giddey seasons and each was pretty similar it would start lower and in the last few months make a jump. Meaning he tends to start slower and come on at the end. Last season was similar start to here around 10-12 ppg then in March he was at 16.3 ppg. I want next year to be consistent high level play.

[cocktailswith_2short]

I don't see his production dropping the second we handed him the keys it jumped .

[nomorezorro]

One thing I still can't quite figure out with Giddey is what skill he draws on to get to the basket so frequently.

He has the worst first step of any primary ball-handler I've ever seen, and doesn't seem to really get going until steps 2 or 3. He might be stronger than he looks, but he sorta gets bounced around like a ping-pong ball when he burrows his way to the basket, and his high center of gravity makes it easy for defenders to cut him off. Unlike Luka, I don't get the impression that he is all that great at de-celerating, and most of his drives are sorta in a straight line.

But he still maneuvers his way to the rim all game. The only thing I can reconcile it with is that his vision for the game carries over to his driving ability and he's really good at sensing when defenses are off-balance (within a fraction of a second), and uses just enough skill and ability to hit his holes. I kinda wonder if he'll be able to carry it over to his older years, but I've always found it interesting to watch.

kind of on a similar note to this is his foul drawing ability - for the little mini-stretch he had a few games ago where he wasn't finishing at the rim well and it looked like his confidence in his shot-making had maybe wavered, he was still getting to the line 6 times a game.

now, to my eye, the way he drew these fouls was extremely clumsy. he looked like he was just driving desperately trying to force his body into the defender and would fling up a no-hope shot if he felt contact, or kick the ball out if he didn't. he was putting up superficially solid scoring numbers (16 ppg across a five-game stretch despite shooting 36.6%), but i made a couple of posts at the time expressing skepticism about how good giddey would really be if he couldn't consistently finish at the rim well. sure, he might be drawing fouls, but eventually defenses would get wise to his game and just avoid the ham-fisted foul baiting, right?

but i guess considering he's averaging 5+ FTA over the 23-game stretch post-lavine trade, at a certain point i have to consider: is that foul drawing just something he's going to continue to be good at doing, even if it looks like it shouldn't be sustainable to me? because if so that's a huge strength for a guy who invites questions about how he's going to score enough (and efficiently enough) to justify having the ball in his hands as much as he needs it

[kodo]

The Giddey athleticism debate is such an interesting one. Tracking the actual speed of players of players who average the most distance per game:

Herro: 4.38 average speed
Lavine: 4.22
Maxey: 4.34
Booker: 4.02
Murray: 4.06
Giddey: 4.41
Dyson Daniels: 4.47
Josh Hart: 4.06
Trae: 4.04
Coby: 4.14
Reaves: 4.04
Fox: 4.23
Haliburton: 4.26

Obviously guys like Lavine & Fox are athletically faster than Giddey...but if they actually aren't moving as fast as Giddey in game does it matter if they are faster in a track meet?

[MissileMike]

Has anything changed regarding who has cap space? Last I saw on here, it was pretty much just the Nets?

[Dan Z]

Red velvet looks happy to be a bull I think he stays with us on a reasonable deal . He fits the timeline for the team and seems to have good chemistry with our guys.

I'm also not sure if there's anyone better that the Bulls could reasonably get to replace him. I'd re-sign him if the cost isn't too high.

I might change my mind if the Bulls draft a wing (one that shows promise), but other than that I don't think they'll find a better player to play Huerters role (in the near future).

[Dan Z]

Thinking this over… Brooklyn has over $100M to spend, 0.1% win-(chip)-now aspirations as a young team, an incoming top-7 pick, an Australian GM (who has pursued several Aussies): Mills, Simmons, technically Kyrie… and nothing to lose. Giddey is borderline averaging a triple-double.

I think unless Nets draft a full-time playmaker (namely Harper… VJ, Kasparas to a lesser extent), I’m about 90% expecting them to make that $166M/4Y max offer to Giddey. Which wouldn’t be the end of the world to match (better than giving him the $224M/5Y extension with larger raises). But it’s starting to feel like that max offer is Giddey’s to lose. He really raised his stock last month, and I can’t think of 1 other team in the NBA as potentially interested/fitting as Brooklyn.

I doubt it. Not that Giddey wouldn’t fit with Cam Thomas and Cam Johnson - he would. But I also don’t think he would make them a top 4 team in the East. Brooklyn seems to be looking for a complete rebuild, having moved current assets for future ones. They tried to move Cam Johnson, too, but didn’t get a good enough offer. I think Brooklyn is looking for “the guy,” and while I like Giddey, I don’t view him as a legit “the guy” candidate. Don’t forget that Cam Thomas is going to get a big raise - as a guy putting up stats better than Coby’s over the course of a season, and putting up similar level stats for 2 years in a row (and two years younger than Coby).

Don’t forget that the 2nd apron really makes “bad” Max contracts hurt. A lot. Hence Brandon Ingram traded for pennies, and Zach despite rehabbing himself similarly traded for little.

I mean, who knows - they may decide that Giddey-Cam-Cam-Claxton-draft pick wing or guard plus maybe resigned Zaire Williams is the group they want to build around. But like with the Bulls, we’re talking about a group that gives you a punchers chance, at best. Bulls hopes for anything more than play in / low seed are based on Matas exploding. Meanwhile, Cam Johnson is older than Lonzo Ball…

I could see the Nets go after Giddey if they get Flagg in the draft. Beyond that...not really. Let's say they get one of these players: Harper, KJ, Tre Johnson or VJ. All of them are guards and two can play the PG position. I guess they could see VJ or Tre plus Giddey as their backcourt of the future, but why rush it? Just continue building through the draft and use your cap space at a later time.

If Giddey asks for too much then I hope AK has him test the market (but I doubt he will).

[HomoSapien]

The acquisition reminds me a little of the Suns signing Steve Nash. Obviously they're different players and were in different stages of their careers, but the similarities are that they were both undervalued by their previous team and then joined a team that fully catered to their strengths and play styles. I still feel like we could have gotten more from OKC in this deal, but it seems inevitable that this trade will historically be viewed as a big win for AKME and the Bulls.