Bears 11.0: Free Agency, College Pro days, Draft & beyond

[dougthonus]

toughest road schedule in nfl history?

Who knows how next season will turn out, but in preseason, this will likely rate as one of the toughest schedules in the NFL.

[dougthonus]

The strength of this draft was in the second and third rounds. Everyone was talking about what a good idea trading down for more picks would be. Poles managed to do that, and now he's being criticized for it? That seems like a very "glass half empty" way of looking at it.

I'm not criticizing Poles, but he didn't acquire any extra he traded down 15 slots in early round two to move up 10 slots from early round 3 to late round two. He didn't acquire extra 2nd and 3rd round picks did he?

He got an extra fourth for the above, but based on the value statement you made, we overall had less valuable picks in the 2nd/3rd round due to his trades to get an extra fourth round pick. Then traded down in the fourth to get a fourth and fifth then the fifth for a late 6th and a fourth next year.

Time will tell whether these trades work or not. Value wise I have no problem with any of them. I especially like the last trade (5th this year for 4th next year), I'd make that type of trade in pretty much any round every year. Always get be willing to delay value a bit if you are getting more value, so that one I view as a straight win.

The rest are just circumstantial, but all of them make sense if you aren't particularly enamored with a specific guy on the board, you should always trade down in those scenarios. I assume the Bears felt that way or wouldn't have executed the trades, so seems fine to me.

The question will be whether the talent evaluation ends up spot on or not now more so than the absolute value of the moves made.

[dice]

toughest road schedule in nfl history?

Who knows how next season will turn out, but in preseason, this will likely rate as one of the toughest schedules in the NFL.

[Mindcrime]

I just realized something from the 2023 NCAA Chapionship game, guess who were the leading receivers on the two teams:

[chitowndish]

This chart has a good breakdown of Poles moves on draft day. It’s easier to visualize what happened this way so I thought the writer did a great job with the chart, Poles did pick up a late round pick and then a fourth next year



https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2025/4/27/24418537/professor-ryan-poles-lessons-chicago-bears-draft-trade-masterclass-trade-down-to-goup-nfl

[molepharmer]

Who knows how next season will turn out, but in preseason, this will likely rate as one of the toughest schedules in the NFL.

fwiw - I went to ESPN to check out their win total projections. ESPN-Bet has their projections (Bears at 8.5) and also includes Mike Clays' Projections, as if that's a reliable gauge. Then I looked closer at Clay's Bears rankings and his positional projection rankings across the NFL. fwiw - Clay's has T Stevenson as the 15th ranked CB, Gordon as 28th and Jaylon Johnson as 55th. He also has some other odd projections, e.g. JJ McCarthy is 11th QB.

[Dresden]

toughest road schedule in nfl history?

Who knows how next season will turn out, but in preseason, this will likely rate as one of the toughest schedules in the NFL.

How do the Giants end up with the hardest schedule, when they were one of the worst teams?

[NesimLE]

Who knows how next season will turn out, but in preseason, this will likely rate as one of the toughest schedules in the NFL.

How do the Giants end up with the hardest schedule, when they were one of the worst teams?

The placing only determines three of your games each year, two in your own conference, and one in the opposing conference. For the Giants that gives them NFC South (NO), NFC West (SF), and AFC East (NE). The rest of their schedule however, is the entire NFC North (!), the entire AFC West (!), and two each with the rest of the NFC East. Since SF, NE, and DAL are likely projected to be much better than last year, it results in a tough schedule. Their only "easy" games are against NO, and maybe LV. The other teams in their division have similar schedules, but they get to replace two games vs "themselves" with two against the Giants, which is probably considered an easier schedule lol

Home: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, Green Bay, Kansas City, L.A. Chargers, Minnesota, San Francisco
(this home schedule is just diabolical lol)

Away: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, Chicago, Denver, Detroit, Las Vegas, New England, New Orleans

[Dresden]

How do the Giants end up with the hardest schedule, when they were one of the worst teams?

The placing only determines three of your games each year, two in your own conference, and one in the opposing conference. For the Giants that gives them NFC South (NO), NFC West (SF), and AFC East (NE). The rest of their schedule however, is the entire NFC North (!), the entire AFC West (!), and two each with the rest of the NFC East. Since SF, NE, and DAL are likely projected to be much better than last year, it results in a tough schedule. Their only "easy" games are against NO, and maybe LV. The other teams in their division have similar schedules, but they get to replace two games vs "themselves" with two against the Giants, which is probably considered an easier schedule lol

Home: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, Green Bay, Kansas City, L.A. Chargers, Minnesota, San Francisco
(this home schedule is just diabolical lol)

Away: Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington, Chicago, Denver, Detroit, Las Vegas, New England, New Orleans

Thanks for the explanation. So it sounds like the entire NFC East is in for a tough year, having to play the North plus the AFC West. Will be interesting to see how the Commanders do this year given that.

[Dresden]

The strength of this draft was in the second and third rounds. Everyone was talking about what a good idea trading down for more picks would be. Poles managed to do that, and now he's being criticized for it? That seems like a very "glass half empty" way of looking at it.

I'm not criticizing Poles, but he didn't acquire any extra he traded down 15 slots in early round two to move up 10 slots from early round 3 to late round two. He didn't acquire extra 2nd and 3rd round picks did he?

He got an extra fourth for the above, but based on the value statement you made, we overall had less valuable picks in the 2nd/3rd round due to his trades to get an extra fourth round pick. Then traded down in the fourth to get a fourth and fifth then the fifth for a late 6th and a fourth next year.

Time will tell whether these trades work or not. Value wise I have no problem with any of them. I especially like the last trade (5th this year for 4th next year), I'd make that type of trade in pretty much any round every year. Always get be willing to delay value a bit if you are getting more value, so that one I view as a straight win.

The rest are just circumstantial, but all of them make sense if you aren't particularly enamored with a specific guy on the board, you should always trade down in those scenarios. I assume the Bears felt that way or wouldn't have executed the trades, so seems fine to me.

The question will be whether the talent evaluation ends up spot on or not now more so than the absolute value of the moves made.

I think that's generally true- your draft depends on you making good picks more than getting the most value, according to some chart. If you give up a lot of value but come away with a Patrick Mahomes, no one is going to bat an eye.

The only pick you can really criticize is the Hippolite pick. The Bears aren't saying, but I hope the reason they picked him in the 4th was because they good reason to believe another team was about to. Otherwise, just about everyone says they could have had him in the 6th or 7th. So that was a huge over-reach on the face of things. 4th round picks are still pretty valuable, and using one on a guy you could have in the 7th round would be big missed opportunity.

[dougthonus]

I think that's generally true- your draft depends on you making good picks more than getting the most value, according to some chart. If you give up a lot of value but come away with a Patrick Mahomes, no one is going to bat an eye.

The only pick you can really criticize is the Hippolite pick. The Bears aren't saying, but I hope the reason they picked him in the 4th was because they good reason to believe another team was about to. Otherwise, just about everyone says they could have had him in the 6th or 7th. So that was a huge over-reach on the face of things. 4th round picks are still pretty valuable, and using one on a guy you could have in the 7th round would be big missed opportunity.

I think you have to take with a grain of salt when other people think a guy will be available. People said Sanders was going to go in the 1st round, possibly #2, and he went in the 5th round. If the Bears graded Hippolite as a 4th rounder and best player on the board, then they should assume other professional teams doing scouting and interviews with the same access as they had also had him graded similarly, and can ignore what media folks with a lot less information think.

Granted, they still need to be right, but I just don't think you can ever make assumptions about whom will or won't be available if you trade down or wait and would imagine all GMs are bit in the butt pretty quickly by thinking a guy will be available later and then he isn't pretty early in their career.

Not to say I like or dislike the pick, just that I know I certainly never have enough knowledge to feel like I should be criticizing a guy for being a reach.

I know it's in the NBA (obviously more my wheelhouse) but I think a couple great examples is that Jaylen Brown and Cam Johnson were both considered big reaches on draft day. Brown was taken 3rd and is the best player in his class. He was mocked ~7th to 8th, and Cam Johnson was taken 11th and commonly mocked in the 20s. Those were huge reaches relative to the mock draft boards, both roundly criticized at the time. In a redraft, Brown goes #1, Cam Johnson probably goes #3 or #4.

The Celtics / Suns probably feared when they were taking their guys that other teams saw the same things they did and that trading down would have been hugely risky because teams just know a ton more than mock draft people.

[jnrjr79]

I think that's generally true- your draft depends on you making good picks more than getting the most value, according to some chart. If you give up a lot of value but come away with a Patrick Mahomes, no one is going to bat an eye.

The only pick you can really criticize is the Hippolite pick. The Bears aren't saying, but I hope the reason they picked him in the 4th was because they good reason to believe another team was about to. Otherwise, just about everyone says they could have had him in the 6th or 7th. So that was a huge over-reach on the face of things. 4th round picks are still pretty valuable, and using one on a guy you could have in the 7th round would be big missed opportunity.

I think you have to take with a grain of salt when other people think a guy will be available. People said Sanders was going to go in the 1st round, possibly #2, and he went in the 5th round. If the Bears graded Hippolite as a 4th rounder and best player on the board, then they should assume other professional teams doing scouting and interviews with the same access as they had also had him graded similarly, and can ignore what media folks with a lot less information think.

Granted, they still need to be right, but I just don't think you can ever make assumptions about whom will or won't be available if you trade down or wait and would imagine all GMs are bit in the butt pretty quickly by thinking a guy will be available later and then he isn't pretty early in their career.

Not to say I like or dislike the pick, just that I know I certainly never have enough knowledge to feel like I should be criticizing a guy for being a reach.

I know it's in the NBA (obviously more my wheelhouse) but I think a couple great examples is that Jaylen Brown and Cam Johnson were both considered big reaches on draft day. Brown was taken 3rd and is the best player in his class. He was mocked ~7th to 8th, and Cam Johnson was taken 11th and commonly mocked in the 20s. Those were huge reaches relative to the mock draft boards, both roundly criticized at the time. In a redraft, Brown goes #1, Cam Johnson probably goes #3 or #4.

The Celtics / Suns probably feared when they were taking their guys that other teams saw the same things they did and that trading down would have been hugely risky because teams just know a ton more than mock draft people.

Yeah, I think you see a lot of herding when it comes to media mock drafts, where the more of these things get published, the more they start to be self-reinforcing and look like each other. To your point, NFL teams have more data and they know the other teams do as well, so I'm not particularly bugged by a team relying on its own assessment. It only takes one other team to view him similarly for him to come off the board.

[Almost Retired]

The strength of this draft was in the second and third rounds. Everyone was talking about what a good idea trading down for more picks would be. Poles managed to do that, and now he's being criticized for it? That seems like a very "glass half empty" way of looking at it.

I'm not criticizing Poles, but he didn't acquire any extra he traded down 15 slots in early round two to move up 10 slots from early round 3 to late round two. He didn't acquire extra 2nd and 3rd round picks did he?

He got an extra fourth for the above, but based on the value statement you made, we overall had less valuable picks in the 2nd/3rd round due to his trades to get an extra fourth round pick. Then traded down in the fourth to get a fourth and fifth then the fifth for a late 6th and a fourth next year.

Time will tell whether these trades work or not. Value wise I have no problem with any of them. I especially like the last trade (5th this year for 4th next year), I'd make that type of trade in pretty much any round every year. Always get be willing to delay value a bit if you are getting more value, so that one I view as a straight win.

The rest are just circumstantial, but all of them make sense if you aren't particularly enamored with a specific guy on the board, you should always trade down in those scenarios. I assume the Bears felt that way or wouldn't have executed the trades, so seems fine to me.

The question will be whether the talent evaluation ends up spot on or not now more so than the absolute value of the moves made.

I think that's generally true- your draft depends on you making good picks more than getting the most value, according to some chart. If you give up a lot of value but come away with a Patrick Mahomes, no one is going to bat an eye.

The only pick you can really criticize is the Hippolite pick. The Bears aren't saying, but I hope the reason they picked him in the 4th was because they good reason to believe another team was about to. Otherwise, just about everyone says they could have had him in the 6th or 7th. So that was a huge over-reach on the face of things. 4th round picks are still pretty valuable, and using one on a guy you could have in the 7th round would be big missed opportunity.

I'm not going to second guess the Hippolite pick until we see how he performs and what DennisAllen and/or Hightower want to use him for. He didn't get a combine invite so a lot of us fans didn't know much about him. But if he had gotten a combine invite he would have clocked in as the fastest linebacker at the combine. Dennis Allen values big defensive ends and SPEED. You can coach up technique, hand usage, leverage, pad level, tackling, block shedding, etc. You can't create speed, except at the margins, for a player that doesn't possess it. With the new kickoff rules special teams are going to win or lose a couple of games a season. If Hippolite becomes just a huge contributor on special teams then the pick was worth it. And I think Dennis Allen will figure out ways to utilize his strengths on defense as well. I doubt Poles picked the guy without any input from Dennis Allen. I'm anxious to see what the kid brings. I'm not a baseball fan so I can't wait for training camp to begin.

[Dresden]

I'm not criticizing Poles, but he didn't acquire any extra he traded down 15 slots in early round two to move up 10 slots from early round 3 to late round two. He didn't acquire extra 2nd and 3rd round picks did he?

He got an extra fourth for the above, but based on the value statement you made, we overall had less valuable picks in the 2nd/3rd round due to his trades to get an extra fourth round pick. Then traded down in the fourth to get a fourth and fifth then the fifth for a late 6th and a fourth next year.

Time will tell whether these trades work or not. Value wise I have no problem with any of them. I especially like the last trade (5th this year for 4th next year), I'd make that type of trade in pretty much any round every year. Always get be willing to delay value a bit if you are getting more value, so that one I view as a straight win.

The rest are just circumstantial, but all of them make sense if you aren't particularly enamored with a specific guy on the board, you should always trade down in those scenarios. I assume the Bears felt that way or wouldn't have executed the trades, so seems fine to me.

The question will be whether the talent evaluation ends up spot on or not now more so than the absolute value of the moves made.

I think that's generally true- your draft depends on you making good picks more than getting the most value, according to some chart. If you give up a lot of value but come away with a Patrick Mahomes, no one is going to bat an eye.

The only pick you can really criticize is the Hippolite pick. The Bears aren't saying, but I hope the reason they picked him in the 4th was because they good reason to believe another team was about to. Otherwise, just about everyone says they could have had him in the 6th or 7th. So that was a huge over-reach on the face of things. 4th round picks are still pretty valuable, and using one on a guy you could have in the 7th round would be big missed opportunity.

I'm not going to second guess the Hippolite pick until we see how he performs and what DennisAllen and/or Hightower want to use him for. He didn't get a combine invite so a lot of us fans didn't know much about him. But if he had gotten a combine invite he would have clocked in as the fastest linebacker at the combine. Dennis Allen values big defensive ends and SPEED. You can coach up technique, hand usage, leverage, pad level, tackling, block shedding, etc. You can't create speed, except at the margins, for a player that doesn't possess it. With the new kickoff rules special teams are going to win or lose a couple of games a season. If Hippolite becomes just a huge contributor on special teams then the pick was worth it. And I think Dennis Allen will figure out ways to utilize his strengths on defense as well. I doubt Poles picked the guy without any input from Dennis Allen. I'm anxious to see what the kid brings. I'm not a baseball fan so I can't wait for training camp to begin.

I'm not going to say it was a terrible pick either until we see how it turns out. It was just an outlier, and whenever that happens I'm always curious about why. Did all the people studying the draft and ranking players all just overlook him? Did other teams also have him high on their boards? Why did the Bears feel they needed to use a 4th round pick on him? What about him made him a better choice than someone like Bradyn Swinson, the Edge from LSU that was ranked pretty highly and went 12 picks after Hippolite and was at a position of need? Or Jayden Blue, DJ Giddens or Jordan James- RB's that went early in the 5th? I haven't heard anyone from the Bears say too much about this, other than the usual platitudes about how much they liked the player they picked. In any case, we'll see, I hope he turns out great.

[Dresden]

Next year's draft and FA will have to be about defense again. We spent 5 of 8 picks on offense this year, including the top 3 picks. There aren't many more holes to fill on that side of the ball, other than RB. Some early mocks have us taking the RB from ND in the first round. Other than that though, we will likely need at least one more edge, possibly a DT depending on how long Billings and Garrett are going to play, likely at least one LB to replace Edmunds, and maybe a second unless someone steps up, likely a safety, and possibly a corner. So that's like 5 players. Should be very doable.

Hopefully each offseason becomes less about desperately fixing bad positions, and more about building for the future and depth.

[Almost Retired]

Next year's draft and FA will have to be about defense again. We spent 5 of 8 picks on offense this year, including the top 3 picks. There aren't many more holes to fill on that side of the ball, other than RB. Some early mocks have us taking the RB from ND in the first round. Other than that though, we will likely need at least one more edge, possibly a DT depending on how long Billings and Garrett are going to play, likely at least one LB to replace Edmunds, and maybe a second unless someone steps up, likely a safety, and possibly a corner. So that's like 5 players. Should be very doable.

Hopefully each offseason becomes less about desperately fixing bad positions, and more about building for the future and depth.

I'm not sure if we desperately need an EDGE as much as some people seem to think. We signed Dayo in the off season. And Dennis Allen might want to use Shemar Turner at Defensive End, which is where he played in 2023-2024 when he had his best year statistically. He only moved inside for his last year at Texas A7M to accommodate Nic Scourton who had transferred over from Purdue. Dennis Allen doesn't necessarily like to utilize mid size Defensive ends, the guys in the 6'3" - 6'4" and 245-265 pound range. He's got a different philosophy. And we can't dismiss Daniel Hardy and Austin Booker as rotation guys to give our starters a breather. And who knows which veteran players from other teams that will get released at some point due to salary cap issues. If Sweat is still all we have at EDGE then for sure we need to expend a high pick for that position no later than the 2nd round next year.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

Anyone have a grasp on how signing JK Dobbins before training camp would impact our compensatory pick calculation?

[nomorezorro]

depends on how much he signs for. if it's less than ~$3 million (or whatever the exact threshold turns out to be), he won't affect us at all since he won't be a qualifying free agent. if it's more than that, we'll probably lose a compensatory seventh rounder.

normally he wouldn't affect us at all either way because we're outside of the window where free agents typically count against the formula, but the chargers tendered him in a way that he still does count against the formula through july 22 if his contract qualifies. (he'd only earn $1.1 million playing on that tender, so my assumption would be that he's probably going to end up signing at a figure where he's not a qualifying FA addition)

[sco]

Anyone have a grasp on how signing JK Dobbins before training camp would impact our compensatory pick calculation?

Is that hypothetical or has there been a rumor?

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

Anyone have a grasp on how signing JK Dobbins before training camp would impact our compensatory pick calculation?

Is that hypothetical or has there been a rumor?

Rumored interest but I don’t remember the source or how credible it was.