Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

Bobby Marks: "the average starting point guard salary next season is $38M...Giddey had a heck of a year..."

So maybe you think Giddey wants too much so you let him walk in FA for nothing. Then you go get an average PG...so you trade your 1st round draft pick for Immanuel Quickley. He makes $33M. How much better is the team really.

Tough decisions coming up.

I don’t think it’ll be a tough decision. Giddey has AK over a barrel. There won’t be an extended negotiation or an offer sheet from another team. Just complete submission from the FO within days, if not hours, of the free agency period opening.

[BullChit]

One thing I still can't quite figure out with Giddey is what skill he draws on to get to the basket so frequently.

He has the worst first step of any primary ball-handler I've ever seen, and doesn't seem to really get going until steps 2 or 3. He might be stronger than he looks, but he sorta gets bounced around like a ping-pong ball when he burrows his way to the basket, and his high center of gravity makes it easy for defenders to cut him off. Unlike Luka, I don't get the impression that he is all that great at de-celerating, and most of his drives are sorta in a straight line.

But he still maneuvers his way to the rim all game. The only thing I can reconcile it with is that his vision for the game carries over to his driving ability and he's really good at sensing when defenses are off-balance (within a fraction of a second), and uses just enough skill and ability to hit his holes. I kinda wonder if he'll be able to carry it over to his older years, but I've always found it interesting to watch.

He's glitchy... When he makes a move he moves like he has a frame missing in his animation which I imagine makes it hard to defend against and easy to foul for most defenders.

[FrodoBaggins]

How well did Josh play with a bigger role to end the season? Here's a rundown of the stats...

Josh Giddey's averages post All-Star break (19 games):

Box score and advanced stats

- 34.3 mpg (651 minutes total)
- 21.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg (2.4 orb), 9.3 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.8 bpg, 3.4 topg
- 50.0% FG (14.5 fga/g), 45.7% 3PT (4.3 3pa/g), 51.8% 2PT (10.3 2pa/g), 80.9% FT (5.8 fta/g; 40.0% FTr; 56.3% 2pt-FTr), 62.0% TS (+4.4 rTS; 108 TS+)
- 7.7 ORB%, 25.0 DRB%, 16.8 TRB%, 37.7 AST%, 2.0 STL%, 1.9 BLK%, 16.5 TOV%, 24.9 USG%, 126 ORtg, 110 DRtg, 22.0 GmSc, +7.6 BPM
- +137 (+7.2/g)

Second Spectrum tracking

Catch-and-shoot: 46.7% 3PT on 3.2 3pa/g
Pull-up: 44.4% 3PT on 0.9 3pa/g
Drives: 51.3% FG (5.9 fga/g), 78.0% FT (2.6 fta/g; 44.1% FTr), 60.34% TS, 8.5 ppg, 1.06 ppp, 1.9 apg (11.8 AST%), 0.9 topg (5.6 TOV%), estimated 1.64 ppp with passes added, on 16.0 drives/g
Defense: 46.8% DFG (-0.3) on 16.6 DFGA/g; <6 feet: 51.4% DFG (-11.5) on 5.7 DFGA/g; <10 feet: 51.3% DFG (-7.0) on 8.0 DFGA/g

--

The three-point shooting and foul drawing are by far the most impressive and promising skill developments. You wonder just how real these numbers are. For a larger sample size, that three-point shooting holds up at 43.8% 3PT on 4.4 3pa/g over 31 games and 42.9% 3PT on 4.0 3pa over 40 games. And the FTr was doubled year-on-year across the entire season. It was getting close to triple toward the end.

He played really well. I was surprised at the lack of discussion from the media and content creators. Deni Avdija, Quentin Grimes, and Coby White were talked about way more, and I think Josh actually played better than all of them while being the youngest. Josh's post All-Star +7.6 BPM is ridiculously high and clears Deni's +5.3, Quentin's +1.0, and Coby's +0.9.

And that TS% understates because Josh gets a lot of z-bounds (rebounding own unblocked misses). 33 z-bounds in 70 games on the season, which is a 9.3% z-bound percentage. In other words, he rebounds 9.3% of his own missed unblocked FGAs. His season average true shooting percentage rises from 56.7% TS (-0.8 rTS [67th percentile]) to 58.9% selfORB adjusted TS (+0.3 selfORB adjusted rTS [78th percentile]).

Also has a high grenade percentage (7%), ranking in the 92nd percentile. A grenade is when a teammate throws you a pass late in the shot clock, forcing you to take a tough shot. He has a 44.0% eFG on these shots - 75th percentile.

--

You hope no one offers him anything huge as an RFA, and Chicago can get him for 25-35m. I think there's a strong chance Josh will completely break out next year. I predict an 18-22 ppg, 8-11 rpg, 8-11 apg, 58-60+ TS% stat line for the whole season.

[FrodoBaggins]

One thing I still can't quite figure out with Giddey is what skill he draws on to get to the basket so frequently.

He has the worst first step of any primary ball-handler I've ever seen, and doesn't seem to really get going until steps 2 or 3. He might be stronger than he looks, but he sorta gets bounced around like a ping-pong ball when he burrows his way to the basket, and his high center of gravity makes it easy for defenders to cut him off. Unlike Luka, I don't get the impression that he is all that great at de-celerating, and most of his drives are sorta in a straight line.

But he still maneuvers his way to the rim all game. The only thing I can reconcile it with is that his vision for the game carries over to his driving ability and he's really good at sensing when defenses are off-balance (within a fraction of a second), and uses just enough skill and ability to hit his holes. I kinda wonder if he'll be able to carry it over to his older years, but I've always found it interesting to watch.

He's glitchy... When he makes a move he moves like he has a frame missing in his animation which I imagine makes it hard to defend against and easy to foul for most defenders.

Someone else said it earlier, but he moves faster with a live dribble than you'd think. He loses less raw speed while dribbling than most because he's a fluid ball handler. Additionally, he changes direction at speed with the ball very well and makes subtle bodily adjustments to find driving angles, which is part of what made Magic Johnson special. Absorbs contact well when driving, too. All of this speaks to his ball handling, balance, stability, coordination, flexibility, and agility.

Here's a great example:



He definitely has some of that Manu Ginobili flexibility thing going on. Look at how he adjusts the driving angle once he gets past Bam. It's subtle but it's there.

Here's an even subtler example. If you look at his legs, you can see that he makes the smallest of bodily adjustments to avoid the defense and get an advantageous position going downhill. And he does it in a smooth, fluid manner with no lag.

[PJSteven22]

How well did Josh play with a bigger role to end the season? Here's a rundown of the stats...

Josh Giddey's averages post All-Star break (19 games):

Box score and advanced stats

- 34.3 mpg (651 minutes total)
- 21.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg (2.4 orb), 9.3 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.8 bpg, 3.4 topg
- 50.0% FG (14.5 fga/g), 45.7% 3PT (4.3 3pa/g), 51.8% 2PT (10.3 2pa/g), 80.9% FT (5.8 fta/g; 40.0% FTr; 56.3% 2pt-FTr), 62.0% TS (+4.4 rTS; 108 TS+)
- 7.7 ORB%, 25.0 DRB%, 16.8 TRB%, 37.7 AST%, 2.0 STL%, 1.9 BLK%, 16.5 TOV%, 24.9 USG%, 126 ORtg, 110 DRtg, 22.0 GmSc, +7.6 BPM
- +137 (+7.2/g)

Second Spectrum tracking

Catch-and-shoot: 46.7% 3PT on 3.2 3pa/g
Pull-up: 44.4% 3PT on 0.9 3pa/g
Drives: 51.3% FG (5.9 fga/g), 78.0% FT (2.6 fta/g; 44.1% FTr), 60.34% TS, 8.5 ppg, 1.06 ppp, 1.9 apg (11.8 AST%), 0.9 topg (5.6 TOV%), estimated 1.64 ppp with passes added, on 16.0 drives/g
Defense: 46.8% DFG (-0.3) on 16.6 DFGA/g; <6 feet: 51.4% DFG (-11.5) on 5.7 DFGA/g; <10 feet: 51.3% DFG (-7.0) on 8.0 DFGA/g

--

The three-point shooting and foul drawing are by far the most impressive and promising skill developments. You wonder just how real these numbers are. For a larger sample size, that three-point shooting holds up at 43.8% 3PT on 4.4 3pa/g over 31 games and 42.9% 3PT on 4.0 3pa over 40 games. And the FTr was doubled year-on-year across the entire season. It was getting close to triple toward the end.

He played really well. I was surprised at the lack of discussion from the media and content creators. Deni Avdija, Quentin Grimes, and Coby White were talked about way more, and I think Josh actually played better than all of them while being the youngest. Josh's post All-Star +7.6 BPM is ridiculously high and clears Deni's +5.3, Quentin's +1.0, and Coby's +0.9.

And that TS% understates because Josh gets a lot of z-bounds (rebounding own unblocked misses). 33 z-bounds in 70 games on the season, which is a 9.3% z-bound percentage. In other words, he rebounds 9.3% of his own missed unblocked FGAs. His season average true shooting percentage rises from 56.7% TS (-0.8 rTS [67th percentile]) to 58.9% selfORB adjusted TS (+0.3 selfORB adjusted rTS [78th percentile]).

Also has a high grenade percentage (7%), ranking in the 92nd percentile. A grenade is when a teammate throws you a pass late in the shot clock, forcing you to take a tough shot. He has a 44.0% eFG on these shots - 75th percentile.

--

You hope no one offers him anything huge as an RFA, and Chicago can get him for 25-35m. I think there's a strong chance Josh will completely break out next year. I predict an 18-22 ppg, 8-11 rpg, 8-11 apg, 58-60+ TS% stat line for the whole season.

Great write up! That’s All NBA level production if he can pick up where he left off. Hopefully this stretch is sustainable because it changes the outlook on the Bulls. If he can continue to improve as a finisher and a pull up shooter. That will change how defenses guard him.


Edit: l looked at a the last few All NBA teams and only SGA, Dame, Luka, Haliburton, CP3, and Steph ever had a BPM over 7 as guards over the past few years.

[WesPeace]

One thing I still can't quite figure out with Giddey is what skill he draws on to get to the basket so frequently.

He has the worst first step of any primary ball-handler I've ever seen, and doesn't seem to really get going until steps 2 or 3. He might be stronger than he looks, but he sorta gets bounced around like a ping-pong ball when he burrows his way to the basket, and his high center of gravity makes it easy for defenders to cut him off. Unlike Luka, I don't get the impression that he is all that great at de-celerating, and most of his drives are sorta in a straight line.

But he still maneuvers his way to the rim all game. The only thing I can reconcile it with is that his vision for the game carries over to his driving ability and he's really good at sensing when defenses are off-balance (within a fraction of a second), and uses just enough skill and ability to hit his holes. I kinda wonder if he'll be able to carry it over to his older years, but I've always found it interesting to watch.

Yes, good post.. I agree, his foot work is kinda cringy for pro baller, but he makes it work.

BUT thats also the biggest problem for him on defense, his stiff legs, his akward foot work. He needs to work on that the most in offseason.

[Ice Man]

BUT thats also the biggest problem for him on defense, his stiff legs, his akward foot work. He needs to work on that the most in offseason.

His defense is awful. He needs to figure out how to make it merely bad, and then we need to find a starting lineup that is defensively strong enough to cover for a weak link. One weak link is acceptable, but two are not.

[sco]

How well did Josh play with a bigger role to end the season? Here's a rundown of the stats...

Josh Giddey's averages post All-Star break (19 games):

Box score and advanced stats

- 34.3 mpg (651 minutes total)
- 21.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg (2.4 orb), 9.3 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.8 bpg, 3.4 topg
- 50.0% FG (14.5 fga/g), 45.7% 3PT (4.3 3pa/g), 51.8% 2PT (10.3 2pa/g), 80.9% FT (5.8 fta/g; 40.0% FTr; 56.3% 2pt-FTr), 62.0% TS (+4.4 rTS; 108 TS+)
- 7.7 ORB%, 25.0 DRB%, 16.8 TRB%, 37.7 AST%, 2.0 STL%, 1.9 BLK%, 16.5 TOV%, 24.9 USG%, 126 ORtg, 110 DRtg, 22.0 GmSc, +7.6 BPM
- +137 (+7.2/g)

Second Spectrum tracking

Catch-and-shoot: 46.7% 3PT on 3.2 3pa/g
Pull-up: 44.4% 3PT on 0.9 3pa/g
Drives: 51.3% FG (5.9 fga/g), 78.0% FT (2.6 fta/g; 44.1% FTr), 60.34% TS, 8.5 ppg, 1.06 ppp, 1.9 apg (11.8 AST%), 0.9 topg (5.6 TOV%), estimated 1.64 ppp with passes added, on 16.0 drives/g
Defense: 46.8% DFG (-0.3) on 16.6 DFGA/g; <6 feet: 51.4% DFG (-11.5) on 5.7 DFGA/g; <10 feet: 51.3% DFG (-7.0) on 8.0 DFGA/g

--

The three-point shooting and foul drawing are by far the most impressive and promising skill developments. You wonder just how real these numbers are. For a larger sample size, that three-point shooting holds up at 43.8% 3PT on 4.4 3pa/g over 31 games and 42.9% 3PT on 4.0 3pa over 40 games. And the FTr was doubled year-on-year across the entire season. It was getting close to triple toward the end.

He played really well. I was surprised at the lack of discussion from the media and content creators. Deni Avdija, Quentin Grimes, and Coby White were talked about way more, and I think Josh actually played better than all of them while being the youngest. Josh's post All-Star +7.6 BPM is ridiculously high and clears Deni's +5.3, Quentin's +1.0, and Coby's +0.9.

And that TS% understates because Josh gets a lot of z-bounds (rebounding own unblocked misses). 33 z-bounds in 70 games on the season, which is a 9.3% z-bound percentage. In other words, he rebounds 9.3% of his own missed unblocked FGAs. His season average true shooting percentage rises from 56.7% TS (-0.8 rTS [67th percentile]) to 58.9% selfORB adjusted TS (+0.3 selfORB adjusted rTS [78th percentile]).

Also has a high grenade percentage (7%), ranking in the 92nd percentile. A grenade is when a teammate throws you a pass late in the shot clock, forcing you to take a tough shot. He has a 44.0% eFG on these shots - 75th percentile.

--

You hope no one offers him anything huge as an RFA, and Chicago can get him for 25-35m. I think there's a strong chance Josh will completely break out next year. I predict an 18-22 ppg, 8-11 rpg, 8-11 apg, 58-60+ TS% stat line for the whole season.

Great write up! That’s All NBA level production if he can pick up where he left off. Hopefully this stretch is sustainable because it changes the outlook on the Bulls. If he can continue to improve as a finisher and a pull up shooter. That will change how defenses guard him.


Edit: l looked at a the last few All NBA teams and only SGA, Dame, Luka, Haliburton, CP3, and Steph ever had a BPM over 7 as guards over the past few years.

A little cold water on that stretch. Over half of those games were against tanking teams, and we lost all but 3 games to teams with .500+ records during that 19 game stretch, and 1 of those 3 was against the Nuggets sans Joker. Point being that I think his stats were inflated by tank season.

[sco]

Bobby Marks: "the average starting point guard salary next season is $38M...Giddey had a heck of a year..."

So maybe you think Giddey wants too much so you let him walk in FA for nothing. Then you go get an average PG...so you trade your 1st round draft pick for Immanuel Quickley. He makes $33M. How much better is the team really.

Tough decisions coming up.

I don’t think it’ll be a tough decision. Giddey has AK over a barrel. There won’t be an extended negotiation or an offer sheet from another team. Just complete submission from the FO within days, if not hours, of the free agency period opening.

I think the question is how much do folks think the Bulls need to offer for him to just take the QO instead because I think there is a good chance that no other teams put in a bid knowing that the Bulls are 100% match any offer. There is a decent opportunity cost for teams lobbing in a high offer on a RFA as they are restricted from using that money to bid on other FA's for a week IIRC and may very well lose out on other key FA's during that time. If I'm the Bulls, I put a bid starting at the $27M level with max raises out there.

[WesPeace]

BUT thats also the biggest problem for him on defense, his stiff legs, his akward foot work. He needs to work on that the most in offseason.

His defense is awful. He needs to figure out how to make it merely bad, and then we need to find a starting lineup that is defensively strong enough to cover for a weak link. One weak link is acceptable, but two are not.

Yeah and now we had 3 weak D - Giddey, White and Vooch,but even Huerter and Matas arent exactly big defensive stoppers, Matas pretty much best defender in group,just because of size and block ability at the moment

We need to balance this out - thats why I would love it to see someone like Murray - Boyles drafted, good defender, good size, high BBIQ, then also center spot addressed via trade (Vucevic out, new C in) or FA, to improve D and figure out how much Giddey and White can improve defensively and if they can be leading backcourt duo going forward.

[FrodoBaggins]

How well did Josh play with a bigger role to end the season? Here's a rundown of the stats...

Josh Giddey's averages post All-Star break (19 games):

Box score and advanced stats

- 34.3 mpg (651 minutes total)
- 21.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg (2.4 orb), 9.3 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.8 bpg, 3.4 topg
- 50.0% FG (14.5 fga/g), 45.7% 3PT (4.3 3pa/g), 51.8% 2PT (10.3 2pa/g), 80.9% FT (5.8 fta/g; 40.0% FTr; 56.3% 2pt-FTr), 62.0% TS (+4.4 rTS; 108 TS+)
- 7.7 ORB%, 25.0 DRB%, 16.8 TRB%, 37.7 AST%, 2.0 STL%, 1.9 BLK%, 16.5 TOV%, 24.9 USG%, 126 ORtg, 110 DRtg, 22.0 GmSc, +7.6 BPM
- +137 (+7.2/g)

Second Spectrum tracking

Catch-and-shoot: 46.7% 3PT on 3.2 3pa/g
Pull-up: 44.4% 3PT on 0.9 3pa/g
Drives: 51.3% FG (5.9 fga/g), 78.0% FT (2.6 fta/g; 44.1% FTr), 60.34% TS, 8.5 ppg, 1.06 ppp, 1.9 apg (11.8 AST%), 0.9 topg (5.6 TOV%), estimated 1.64 ppp with passes added, on 16.0 drives/g
Defense: 46.8% DFG (-0.3) on 16.6 DFGA/g; <6 feet: 51.4% DFG (-11.5) on 5.7 DFGA/g; <10 feet: 51.3% DFG (-7.0) on 8.0 DFGA/g

--

The three-point shooting and foul drawing are by far the most impressive and promising skill developments. You wonder just how real these numbers are. For a larger sample size, that three-point shooting holds up at 43.8% 3PT on 4.4 3pa/g over 31 games and 42.9% 3PT on 4.0 3pa over 40 games. And the FTr was doubled year-on-year across the entire season. It was getting close to triple toward the end.

He played really well. I was surprised at the lack of discussion from the media and content creators. Deni Avdija, Quentin Grimes, and Coby White were talked about way more, and I think Josh actually played better than all of them while being the youngest. Josh's post All-Star +7.6 BPM is ridiculously high and clears Deni's +5.3, Quentin's +1.0, and Coby's +0.9.

And that TS% understates because Josh gets a lot of z-bounds (rebounding own unblocked misses). 33 z-bounds in 70 games on the season, which is a 9.3% z-bound percentage. In other words, he rebounds 9.3% of his own missed unblocked FGAs. His season average true shooting percentage rises from 56.7% TS (-0.8 rTS [67th percentile]) to 58.9% selfORB adjusted TS (+0.3 selfORB adjusted rTS [78th percentile]).

Also has a high grenade percentage (7%), ranking in the 92nd percentile. A grenade is when a teammate throws you a pass late in the shot clock, forcing you to take a tough shot. He has a 44.0% eFG on these shots - 75th percentile.

--

You hope no one offers him anything huge as an RFA, and Chicago can get him for 25-35m. I think there's a strong chance Josh will completely break out next year. I predict an 18-22 ppg, 8-11 rpg, 8-11 apg, 58-60+ TS% stat line for the whole season.

Great write up! That’s All NBA level production if he can pick up where he left off. Hopefully this stretch is sustainable because it changes the outlook on the Bulls. If he can continue to improve as a finisher and a pull up shooter. That will change how defenses guard him.


Edit: l looked at a the last few All NBA teams and only SGA, Dame, Luka, Haliburton, CP3, and Steph ever had a BPM over 7 as guards over the past few years.

A little cold water on that stretch. Over half of those games were against tanking teams, and we lost all but 3 games to teams with .500+ records during that 19 game stretch, and 1 of those 3 was against the Nuggets sans Joker. Point being that I think his stats were inflated by tank season.

We can extend things out to 1/20/2025 for a 31-game sample. 18.9 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 7.9 apg, 1.4 spg, 0.8 bpg, 3.1 topg on 61.5% TS and +5.6 BPM. Rebounding, steal, and block rates all remain consistent. The minutes per game, assist rate, and usage rate continued to climb as LaVine was traded and Giddey's role increased.

He's been around these general numbers in the past for OKC. He had a stretch where he did 19/8/7 when Shai was injured last season. Same strong runs in his sophomore and rookie seasons. The difference now is a noticeable increase in scoring rate and efficiency due to development in three-point shooting and foul drawing.

It's hard to know just how sustainable these new skill improvements are. There's enough there to be confident for me. Assuming the same role and supporting cast next season, I'd expect Josh to be flirting with a 20-point triple-double average with TS% at or slightly above league average. Within 1-2 counting stats, I'd say. I think that's a healthy, educated estimate based on all the evidence.

[Ice Man]

Point being that I think his stats were inflated by tank season.

Fair enough. On the other hand, in the play-in he went 25/10/4 with acceptable (if not great) efficiency against a tough, swarming Heat defense when pretty much all his teammates got stuffed. To put the matter another way, if we are going to bet on any Bull at all being a truly high-level offensive player, that player has gotta be Josh. I mean, maybe Matas will get there, he's on a rookie contract for 3 more years so we shall see, but all the rest of the roster ... nah.

[sco]

Great write up! That’s All NBA level production if he can pick up where he left off. Hopefully this stretch is sustainable because it changes the outlook on the Bulls. If he can continue to improve as a finisher and a pull up shooter. That will change how defenses guard him.


Edit: l looked at a the last few All NBA teams and only SGA, Dame, Luka, Haliburton, CP3, and Steph ever had a BPM over 7 as guards over the past few years.

A little cold water on that stretch. Over half of those games were against tanking teams, and we lost all but 3 games to teams with .500+ records during that 19 game stretch, and 1 of those 3 was against the Nuggets sans Joker. Point being that I think his stats were inflated by tank season.

We can extend things out to 1/20/2025 for a 31-game sample. 18.9 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 7.9 apg, 1.4 spg, 0.8 bpg, 3.1 topg on 61.5% TS and +5.6 BPM. Rebounding, steal, and block rates all remain consistent. The minutes per game, assist rate, and usage rate continued to climb as LaVine was traded and Giddey's role increased.

He's been around these general numbers in the past for OKC. He had a stretch where he did 19/8/7 when Shai was injured last season. Same strong runs in his sophomore and rookie seasons. The difference now is a noticeable increase in scoring rate and efficiency due to development in three-point shooting and foul drawing.

It's hard to know just how sustainable these new skill improvements are. There's enough there to be confident for me. Assuming the same role and supporting cast next season, I'd expect Josh to be flirting with a 20-point triple-double average with TS% at or slightly above league average. Within 1-2 counting stats, I'd say. I think that's a healthy, educated estimate based on all the evidence.

Look, I get it. We all want to find a guy who is guaranteed to be an elite player, but those guys are rarely moving during their pre-30 years. So other than drafting luck, you're stuck taking risks on guys like Giddey who are trending or guys like Zion who are injury risks, but there are no rewards without risk (unless you're the Lakers).

[FrodoBaggins]

Giddey's defensive profile (strengths, weaknesses, role) is more or less the same as Doncic. 2023-24 DAL provides a reasonable blueprint toward success on that end of the court. Obviously, the level of offensive responsibility differs between the two, and, therefore, the ideal roster construction and allocation of resources/salary cap are somewhat different. But the general premise of defensive optimization is the same. A center that can protect the paint and rim. Versatile wings.

[FrodoBaggins]

Man, Flagg would be the perfect lead dog for Giddey to play second fiddle to. I hope they do an Orlando 1993 or Chicago 2008 for the lottery.

[2weekswithpay]

How well did Josh play with a bigger role to end the season? Here's a rundown of the stats...

Josh Giddey's averages post All-Star break (19 games):

Box score and advanced stats

- 34.3 mpg (651 minutes total)
- 21.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg (2.4 orb), 9.3 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.8 bpg, 3.4 topg
- 50.0% FG (14.5 fga/g), 45.7% 3PT (4.3 3pa/g), 51.8% 2PT (10.3 2pa/g), 80.9% FT (5.8 fta/g; 40.0% FTr; 56.3% 2pt-FTr), 62.0% TS (+4.4 rTS; 108 TS+)
- 7.7 ORB%, 25.0 DRB%, 16.8 TRB%, 37.7 AST%, 2.0 STL%, 1.9 BLK%, 16.5 TOV%, 24.9 USG%, 126 ORtg, 110 DRtg, 22.0 GmSc, +7.6 BPM
- +137 (+7.2/g)

Second Spectrum tracking

Catch-and-shoot: 46.7% 3PT on 3.2 3pa/g
Pull-up: 44.4% 3PT on 0.9 3pa/g
Drives: 51.3% FG (5.9 fga/g), 78.0% FT (2.6 fta/g; 44.1% FTr), 60.34% TS, 8.5 ppg, 1.06 ppp, 1.9 apg (11.8 AST%), 0.9 topg (5.6 TOV%), estimated 1.64 ppp with passes added, on 16.0 drives/g
Defense: 46.8% DFG (-0.3) on 16.6 DFGA/g; <6 feet: 51.4% DFG (-11.5) on 5.7 DFGA/g; <10 feet: 51.3% DFG (-7.0) on 8.0 DFGA/g

--

The three-point shooting and foul drawing are by far the most impressive and promising skill developments. You wonder just how real these numbers are. For a larger sample size, that three-point shooting holds up at 43.8% 3PT on 4.4 3pa/g over 31 games and 42.9% 3PT on 4.0 3pa over 40 games. And the FTr was doubled year-on-year across the entire season. It was getting close to triple toward the end.

He played really well. I was surprised at the lack of discussion from the media and content creators. Deni Avdija, Quentin Grimes, and Coby White were talked about way more, and I think Josh actually played better than all of them while being the youngest. Josh's post All-Star +7.6 BPM is ridiculously high and clears Deni's +5.3, Quentin's +1.0, and Coby's +0.9.

And that TS% understates because Josh gets a lot of z-bounds (rebounding own unblocked misses). 33 z-bounds in 70 games on the season, which is a 9.3% z-bound percentage. In other words, he rebounds 9.3% of his own missed unblocked FGAs. His season average true shooting percentage rises from 56.7% TS (-0.8 rTS [67th percentile]) to 58.9% selfORB adjusted TS (+0.3 selfORB adjusted rTS [78th percentile]).

Also has a high grenade percentage (7%), ranking in the 92nd percentile. A grenade is when a teammate throws you a pass late in the shot clock, forcing you to take a tough shot. He has a 44.0% eFG on these shots - 75th percentile.

--

You hope no one offers him anything huge as an RFA, and Chicago can get him for 25-35m. I think there's a strong chance Josh will completely break out next year. I predict an 18-22 ppg, 8-11 rpg, 8-11 apg, 58-60+ TS% stat line for the whole season.

Great write up! That’s All NBA level production if he can pick up where he left off. Hopefully this stretch is sustainable because it changes the outlook on the Bulls. If he can continue to improve as a finisher and a pull up shooter. That will change how defenses guard him.


Edit: l looked at a the last few All NBA teams and only SGA, Dame, Luka, Haliburton, CP3, and Steph ever had a BPM over 7 as guards over the past few years.

A little cold water on that stretch. Over half of those games were against tanking teams, and we lost all but 3 games to teams with .500+ records during that 19 game stretch, and 1 of those 3 was against the Nuggets sans Joker. Point being that I think his stats were inflated by tank season.

Giddey naturally stuffs the stat sheet. I'd argue that his boxscore stats overstate his on-court impact. Like Sabonis or Lamelo. Good players, but they aren't that impactful in a high-leverage setting.

[PJSteven22]

How well did Josh play with a bigger role to end the season? Here's a rundown of the stats...

Josh Giddey's averages post All-Star break (19 games):

Box score and advanced stats

- 34.3 mpg (651 minutes total)
- 21.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg (2.4 orb), 9.3 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.8 bpg, 3.4 topg
- 50.0% FG (14.5 fga/g), 45.7% 3PT (4.3 3pa/g), 51.8% 2PT (10.3 2pa/g), 80.9% FT (5.8 fta/g; 40.0% FTr; 56.3% 2pt-FTr), 62.0% TS (+4.4 rTS; 108 TS+)
- 7.7 ORB%, 25.0 DRB%, 16.8 TRB%, 37.7 AST%, 2.0 STL%, 1.9 BLK%, 16.5 TOV%, 24.9 USG%, 126 ORtg, 110 DRtg, 22.0 GmSc, +7.6 BPM
- +137 (+7.2/g)

Second Spectrum tracking

Catch-and-shoot: 46.7% 3PT on 3.2 3pa/g
Pull-up: 44.4% 3PT on 0.9 3pa/g
Drives: 51.3% FG (5.9 fga/g), 78.0% FT (2.6 fta/g; 44.1% FTr), 60.34% TS, 8.5 ppg, 1.06 ppp, 1.9 apg (11.8 AST%), 0.9 topg (5.6 TOV%), estimated 1.64 ppp with passes added, on 16.0 drives/g
Defense: 46.8% DFG (-0.3) on 16.6 DFGA/g; <6 feet: 51.4% DFG (-11.5) on 5.7 DFGA/g; <10 feet: 51.3% DFG (-7.0) on 8.0 DFGA/g

--

The three-point shooting and foul drawing are by far the most impressive and promising skill developments. You wonder just how real these numbers are. For a larger sample size, that three-point shooting holds up at 43.8% 3PT on 4.4 3pa/g over 31 games and 42.9% 3PT on 4.0 3pa over 40 games. And the FTr was doubled year-on-year across the entire season. It was getting close to triple toward the end.

He played really well. I was surprised at the lack of discussion from the media and content creators. Deni Avdija, Quentin Grimes, and Coby White were talked about way more, and I think Josh actually played better than all of them while being the youngest. Josh's post All-Star +7.6 BPM is ridiculously high and clears Deni's +5.3, Quentin's +1.0, and Coby's +0.9.

And that TS% understates because Josh gets a lot of z-bounds (rebounding own unblocked misses). 33 z-bounds in 70 games on the season, which is a 9.3% z-bound percentage. In other words, he rebounds 9.3% of his own missed unblocked FGAs. His season average true shooting percentage rises from 56.7% TS (-0.8 rTS [67th percentile]) to 58.9% selfORB adjusted TS (+0.3 selfORB adjusted rTS [78th percentile]).

Also has a high grenade percentage (7%), ranking in the 92nd percentile. A grenade is when a teammate throws you a pass late in the shot clock, forcing you to take a tough shot. He has a 44.0% eFG on these shots - 75th percentile.

--

You hope no one offers him anything huge as an RFA, and Chicago can get him for 25-35m. I think there's a strong chance Josh will completely break out next year. I predict an 18-22 ppg, 8-11 rpg, 8-11 apg, 58-60+ TS% stat line for the whole season.

Great write up! That’s All NBA level production if he can pick up where he left off. Hopefully this stretch is sustainable because it changes the outlook on the Bulls. If he can continue to improve as a finisher and a pull up shooter. That will change how defenses guard him.


Edit: l looked at a the last few All NBA teams and only SGA, Dame, Luka, Haliburton, CP3, and Steph ever had a BPM over 7 as guards over the past few years.

A little cold water on that stretch. Over half of those games were against tanking teams, and we lost all but 3 games to teams with .500+ records during that 19 game stretch, and 1 of those 3 was against the Nuggets sans Joker. Point being that I think his stats were inflated by tank season.

Sorry I meant to add that would be a tall task to average those numbers over the course of a season.

[waffle]

My question with GIddey is length of deal...he's so young does he want a shorter big AAV deal knowing that he'll very possibly be able to make even more later? Is NOT being locked in for a decade attractive?

So a 3 or 4 year deal for crazy AAV or a 7-10 year slightly less?

[2weekswithpay]

My question with GIddey is length of deal...he's so young does he want a shorter big AAV deal knowing that he'll very possibly be able to make even more later? Is NOT being locked in for a decade attractive?

So a 3 or 4 year deal for crazy AAV or a 7-10 year slightly less?

7-10 year deal? NBA contracts can only go up to 5 years.

Young players want 4-5 year deals. 4 years + 5th year player option.

[ShouldaPaidBG]

I'm reopening the conundrum. I think he's too limited for the playoffs (like many have already said, I know). You need to be able to shoot and play defense. Let Giddey walk.