NBA Trade Thread #11

[Infinity2152]

Zero chance BOS trades him this offseason.

And that's fine. If everyone wants to view the trade from Boston eye's and think they know what Boston wants and will do, that's fine. Reason I said I'm not saying Boston will or won't is because I acknowledge that there's no way I know Boston's plans or priorities. We don't even know what direction the Bulls are going. I've laid out multiple reasons it could make sense for Boston, if people want to ignore those reasons as fantastical or illogical, so be it. When I see ZERO chance, that shows me we're arguing on opinions. Of course there's a chance, no matter how small you think it is. There was ZERO chance Dallas would trade Luka for AD this year I'm quite sure in fan's opinions. Because we don't know what's going on behind the scenes. And there's literally no way to prove it, unless you're privy to ALL of Boston's back room discussions. Pat Riley said "We are not trading Jimmy Butler!". Next week, "We are trading Jimmy Butler!".

Sure. And if they were willing to trade him, I would agree with you.

Can I ask how you know what they want to do? Or who they think is better than Jaylen Brown? Nobody in the league? They would have said no to Luka if Dallas came to them for Brown instead of AD?

And the Heat very clearly did not want to trade Butler. And the Lakers were not looking to trade AD. An offer came in they felt was worth it and they pivoted. What teams will do can change at any time.

[jnrjr79]

I'd assume Boston doesn't want to trade him now because they want to remain at championship level to keep the franchise value as high as possible because they are trying to sell the team. But if and when new ownership arrives, they'll immediately have a massive luxury tax bill facing them, and who knows how they'll view that.

[sco]

And that's fine. If everyone wants to view the trade from Boston eye's and think they know what Boston wants and will do, that's fine. Reason I said I'm not saying Boston will or won't is because I acknowledge that there's no way I know Boston's plans or priorities. We don't even know what direction the Bulls are going. I've laid out multiple reasons it could make sense for Boston, if people want to ignore those reasons as fantastical or illogical, so be it. When I see ZERO chance, that shows me we're arguing on opinions. Of course there's a chance, no matter how small you think it is. There was ZERO chance Dallas would trade Luka for AD this year I'm quite sure in fan's opinions. Because we don't know what's going on behind the scenes. And there's literally no way to prove it, unless you're privy to ALL of Boston's back room discussions. Pat Riley said "We are not trading Jimmy Butler!". Next week, "We are trading Jimmy Butler!".

Sure. And if they were willing to trade him, I would agree with you.

Can I ask how you know what they want to do? Or who they think is better than Jaylen Brown? Nobody in the league? They would have said no to Luka if Dallas came to them for Brown instead of AD?

And the Heat very clearly did not want to trade Butler. And the Lakers were not looking to trade AD. An offer came in they felt was worth it and they pivoted. What teams will do can change at any time.

I admit I don't know. Sure there are always crazy situations that pop up. This just isn't one I'd expect. I admit I didn't not expect Dallas to trade Luka (but hey, neither did Cuban). You feel pretty strongly about this, so I'm just gonna leave this one here.

[Infinity2152]

I'd assume Boston doesn't want to trade him now because they want to remain at championship level to keep the franchise value as high as possible because they are trying to sell the team. But if and when new ownership arrives, they'll immediately have a massive luxury tax bill facing them, and who knows how they'll view that.

I believe in them as a contender this year and of course they should keep him this year. Tatum costs $20 mill more next year than this year and Horford's 39, probably gone. Jrue will be 36. If they win the Championship, or even make the Finals, extremely low chance they trade him. If they get knocked out in the Conference Finals? Don't see any way the team they're bringing back is just as good or better than the team they currently have and they'll be even more cash strapped with Tatum's jump in pay.

These teams have GM's and shareholders. This is not Monopoly money, Celtics luxury tax bill is looking like $210 million dollars for 2025-2026 according to Woj. That's more than the salary cap. They have money guys saying "Hey! We're going to pay this guy $57 mill for 23, 6 and 4? Are we still a contender without him and maybe $20 mill in replacement players? Might be slightly less likely, 5-10% to make the Finals, but save $60 mill or more in actual money?" Operate like a normal NBA team, somewhat in sight of the cap?

Teams have to make hard money decisions all the time, and we're not privy to the details.

Hypothetically:
Is Jrue Holiday. Derrick White, Jayson Taytum, Porzingas, Vucevic with Coby White, Peyton Pritchard, I'll say Tre Johnson this time, Patrick Williams, Sam Hauser, Xavier Tilman a very legit championship contender? Honest opinion. If not exactly as good, nearly as good with a lot more depth for injuries and way more financial flexibility?

You could preserve Holiday and Porzingas way more for the playoffs with all the additional depth.

[Dez]

Losing Brown for our crap won't keep them a championship contender.

[Infinity2152]

Losing Brown for our crap won't keep them a championship contender.

Ok, for the sake of argument. Get them under the cap with Tatum and Brown and keep them a contender. The same logic of paying $200 mill in tax for a contender could be applied to most teams. How hard is it to build a contender while going over the second apron? That doesn't require great GM skills. I'm going to say again, Tatum's contract increases drastically next year. They have to replace Horford. Next year's team does not look the same as this years. If you think our guys are crap, of course you see this as somehow sinking their title hopes. Tell you what, post any listing of the top centers you can find that doesn't have Vuc top 15. Anybody who thinks the number 5 pick is guaranteed or even likely to be crap. Anybody who thinks Coby White is crap and not at least a perennial sixth man contender.

Not debating value on opinion. I'm using their current numbers this year, projected numbers next year and contract as reflections of market value. Not ethereal "doesn't contribute to winning, played bad defense on a team full of bad defenders". All this crazy talk about numbers don't mean anything, guys putting up 18-20 are valued and get paid. Every time. No 20 pts/gm scorer is not valued or paid, I don't care what their other flaws are. Jordan Poole got a huge contract. Because you don't value them doesn't mean NBA teams don't value 20pt scorers.

For some reason, most of the Bulls, all their counting stats are disregarded, except when it comes to Pat Will. Can't wait to talk about his numbers, but Zach puts up 25, Coby puts up 20, Vuc puts up 18/11, Giddey puts up 20, 7 and 7, and they're all empty stats that don't count. Everyone has positive trade value at their contract, but they're crap.

My primary motive for the Celtics was cap savings, to get somewhat in line with the rest of the league. Nobody' suggesting a realistic way they stay contenders moving Porzingas and/or Holiday and get anywhere near the cap while having a complete starting lineup and a solid bench.

And I'm sorry. What team in the East looks more solid next year than Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jayson Tatum, Porzingas, Vucevic with Coby, Pritchard, Pat and a top 5 pick on the bench? Since they won't stay contenders, who's better than them in this conference? What team's starting lineup is so deep, a top 5 pick is virtually guaranteed to have to come off the bench? Unless he's immediately better than Jrue Holiday.

Tell who's not a contender. The team without Horford when Porzingas, who's injured every year, gets injured. AKA, the current team with no depth and no cap next year.

[Infinity2152]

Celtics are over the second apron, they can't aggregate contracts anyway, to my knowledge. They are going to have to be very methodical clearing cap. Any deal would be way more complicated than the simple one proposed. Again, I was more interested in what guys think of Jaylen Brown as a number 1. Tatum is 5th in the league in usage and Brown is 14th. I actually really like Jaylen Brown, that's why I proposed it. I think he's worth it as a number 1 and he could take another step and improve his numbers with more usage, similar to James Harden. We'd still have Ball, Matas, Giddey, Smith, Collins. If Giddey and Matas can be number 2's or 3's, that's a damn solid young team. I could care less about making the Celtics better, lmao!

[WesPeace]

Sure I would take Brown for Coby, Pat and Vooch and 2nd rounder.. but why Celtics would do it?? Zero chance.. that depth is very dodgy..

[MrSparkle]

Honest question: if you just won a ring, would you trade your 2nd best player (who's not even 29) for anybody short of an established all-star?

Add further insult by offering Pat and Vuc. One of whom is conclusively making our team worse by playing (instead of journey-man Zach Collins), and the other who's the Casper the Basketball Ghost. Then you have Coby who averages 5 weeks of strong play per season... Their $6M bench guard also scored 43 points the other week. Pritchard brings a high level of consistency to his role (42% 3P and defense).

The Celtic's 1st move will be re-structuring and selling high on Jrue for cap relief while he still has value. He has 1 more finals run. Some foolish GM will want the 35yo champ, despite a clear/steep decline and contract cost. Hate to say it, but ... Arturas and Marc have entered the building.

I'd lose my mind if it happened. He's owed $38M in 2028 (when he'll be 38yo - already dropped significantly in efficiency this past season). Vuc and Ayo for Jrue... The Bulls guard rotation evolves.

[sco]

Honest question: if you just won a ring, would you trade your 2nd best player (who's not even 29) for anybody short of an established all-star?

Add further insult by offering Pat and Vuc. One of whom is conclusively making our team worse by playing (instead of journey-man Zach Collins), and the other who's the Casper the Basketball Ghost. Then you have Coby who averages 5 weeks of strong play per season... Their $6M bench guard also scored 43 points the other week. Pritchard brings a high level of consistency to his role (42% 3P and defense).

The Celtic's 1st move will be re-structuring and selling high on Jrue for cap relief while he still has value. He has 1 more finals run. Some foolish GM will want the 35yo champ, despite a clear/steep decline and contract cost. Hate to say it, but ... Arturas and Marc have entered the building.

I'd lose my mind if it happened. He's owed $38M in 2028 (when he'll be 38yo - already dropped significantly in efficiency this past season). Vuc and Ayo for Jrue... The Bulls guard rotation evolves.

If anyone trades for that crappy Jrue contract, I could see MIL do it. They haven't been the same without him.

[Infinity2152]

And again, not going back and forth on Coby's, Pat's or Vuc's value. The league has determined their value, don't care what fans think. If Vuc leaves here, he starts on whatever team he goes to. Coby leaves, he's getting 25+ minutes wherever he goes. And clearly the number 5 pick has no value either. Wonder what the straight up player value of that pick alone is. Could you trade Coby and get the 5th pick? No, so worth more than Coby. Would a team trade the 5th pick for Paul George? Probably not. How about a good young NBA starter, Cam Johnson? Think they could get the 5th pick for him? No. Depending on who's available at 5, you'd need a very high value player to get that pick. You could probably get Zion in a trade centered around that pick and expirings. Celtics don't have to keep the pick or the rookie, they could trade it too. Get 4 or 5 future firsts or vet help. Add that pick to Jrue and get a player like Desmond Bane. Almost as good as Brown, but much cheaper.

Can't aggregate contracts, so trading Jrue is going to be way harder than just deciding on trading him. There is no selling high on him, he'll be 36 next season. Then the weird assumption is that they're just going to win the championship. Already said if they win, they're less likely to move him. It's far more likely that they don't, lot of teams in the playoffs and if Porzingas is out, they're toast against any team with size. OKC is currently the favorite to win the championship.

You can scream Brown the second-best player all you want. With $57 mill, you can replace his 23, 6, and 4. He is not prime Lebron. And if they win the championship this year, so what? Tatum's money goes up $20 mill and they lose Horford. Not the same team next year.

This whole argument stems from the belief that the Celtics would be better with Brown and 3 vet min players next year than with Coby, Pat, Vuc and a top rookie. Prichard looks good, but he's the only good player on that bench. The team with Brown can't survive a big man injury, or starter injury period really. The team with Coby, Pat, Vuc, rookie has way more depth and can win games with 2 or more injuries. Your way of thinking is not the only way of thinking. Astounds me when people can't see both sides of an argument, even if they don't agree with both sides. I can see why they might not trade Brown, and have stated that. Is it possible the Celtics, and the rest of the league for that matter, do not see Coby, Pat, Vuc and the #5 pick as pieces that can't contribute to winning a championship. Or is it a certainty that everybody looks at their numbers, completely ignores them, and calls crap?

[sco]

And again, not going back and forth on Coby's, Pat's or Vuc's value. The league has determined their value, don't care what fans think. If Vuc leaves here, he starts on whatever team he goes to. Coby leaves, he's getting 25+ minutes wherever he goes. And clearly the number 5 pick has no value either. Wonder what the straight up player value of that pick alone is. Could you trade Coby and get the 5th pick? No, so worth more than Coby. Would a team trade the 5th pick for Paul George? Probably not. How about a good young NBA starter, Cam Johnson? Think they could get the 5th pick for him? No. Depending on who's available at 5, you'd need a very high value player to get that pick. You could probably get Zion in a trade centered around that pick and expirings. Celtics don't have to keep the pick or the rookie, they could trade it too. Get 4 or 5 future firsts or vet help.

Can't aggregate contracts, so trading Jrue is going to be way harder than just deciding on trading him. There is no selling high on him, he'll be 36 next season. Then the weird assumption is that they're just going to win the championship. Already said if they win, they're less likely to move him. It's far more likely that they don't, lot of teams in the playoffs and if Porzingas is out, they're toast against any team with size. OKC is currently the favorite to win the championship.

You can scream Brown the second-best player all you want. With $57 mill, you can replace his 23, 6, and 4. He is not prime Lebron. And if they win the championship this year, so what? Tatum's money goes up $20 mill and they lose Horford. Not the same team next year.

This whole argument stems from the belief that the Celtics would be better with Brown and 3 vet min players next year than with Coby, Pat, Vuc and a top rookie. Prichard looks good, but he's the only good player on that bench. The team with Brown can't survive a big man injury, or starter injury period really. The team with Coby, Pat, Vuc, rookie has way more depth and can win games with 2 or more injuries. Your way of thinking is not the only way of thinking. Astounds me when people can't see both sides of an argument, even if they don't agree with both sides. I can see why they might not trade Brown, and have stated that. Is it possible the Celtics, and the rest of the league for that matter, do not see Coby, Pat, Vuc and the #5 pick as pieces that can't contribute to winning a championship. Or is it a certainty that everybody looks at their numbers, completely ignores them, and calls crap?

Is there really an argument here? Are you really focused on willing Brown to come here?

On a similar note, I was disappointed that PHO reiterated its intent to keep Booker...so my idea is gone.

[Infinity2152]

And again, not going back and forth on Coby's, Pat's or Vuc's value. The league has determined their value, don't care what fans think. If Vuc leaves here, he starts on whatever team he goes to. Coby leaves, he's getting 25+ minutes wherever he goes. And clearly the number 5 pick has no value either. Wonder what the straight up player value of that pick alone is. Could you trade Coby and get the 5th pick? No, so worth more than Coby. Would a team trade the 5th pick for Paul George? Probably not. How about a good young NBA starter, Cam Johnson? Think they could get the 5th pick for him? No. Depending on who's available at 5, you'd need a very high value player to get that pick. You could probably get Zion in a trade centered around that pick and expirings. Celtics don't have to keep the pick or the rookie, they could trade it too. Get 4 or 5 future firsts or vet help.

Can't aggregate contracts, so trading Jrue is going to be way harder than just deciding on trading him. There is no selling high on him, he'll be 36 next season. Then the weird assumption is that they're just going to win the championship. Already said if they win, they're less likely to move him. It's far more likely that they don't, lot of teams in the playoffs and if Porzingas is out, they're toast against any team with size. OKC is currently the favorite to win the championship.

You can scream Brown the second-best player all you want. With $57 mill, you can replace his 23, 6, and 4. He is not prime Lebron. And if they win the championship this year, so what? Tatum's money goes up $20 mill and they lose Horford. Not the same team next year.

This whole argument stems from the belief that the Celtics would be better with Brown and 3 vet min players next year than with Coby, Pat, Vuc and a top rookie. Prichard looks good, but he's the only good player on that bench. The team with Brown can't survive a big man injury, or starter injury period really. The team with Coby, Pat, Vuc, rookie has way more depth and can win games with 2 or more injuries. Your way of thinking is not the only way of thinking. Astounds me when people can't see both sides of an argument, even if they don't agree with both sides. I can see why they might not trade Brown, and have stated that. Is it possible the Celtics, and the rest of the league for that matter, do not see Coby, Pat, Vuc and the #5 pick as pieces that can't contribute to winning a championship. Or is it a certainty that everybody looks at their numbers, completely ignores them, and calls crap?

Is there really an argument here? Are you really focused on willing Brown to come here?

On a similar note, I was disappointed that PHO reiterated its intent to keep Booker...so my idea is gone.

Just responding, should I not respond when people ask questions? Like now? I've said several times, I wanted to talk about the potential of Brown being a number 1. But I am focused on looking at potential number 1's around his age that might be available for different reasons.

Zion's reason, injury.
Luka, salary and maybe temperament.
Giannis, older, but they've traded his best friends and he seems to be wavering on staying.
Ja Morant, issues with the team.
Brown: Salary, he want's to be a number 1. Have heard multiple interviews with and about him, and that's what comes across.
Easiest big contract to move, would bring the biggest return
Booker: Team failing, easiest big contract to move would bring the biggest return, at the top of my list also
Lamelo Ball: Don't want him, but he fits the category

We've discussed most at length, why I brought up Brown.

I call myself not including impossible to get players, like Wemby, Banchero, Haliburton, etc.

I'm hoping we're not pinning all our hopes on getting a number one in this draft or next, and we're actively scouring the trade market. Because of his age and two-way ability, Brown is near the top of the list. The cost of Coby, Pat, Vuc, number 5 pick were approximate costs to see what we'd have left to surround the player with. In reality, it would probably have to be a three team trade, and who knows what pieces end up where. We could discuss whether those teams would be willing to move the players 1 year, two years from now but that's pointless, because priorities change. Teams pivot on players all the time.

I'm watching how teams operate, and I see how carefully most are dealing with the cap. So I don't think the Celtics will be able to stay like this. They very well may keep Tatum and Brown, they're not going to be a top 3 contender in 2 years with that.

[WesPeace]

Maybe after next season they go into trading route,but still kinda doubtfull, unless their results turn really bad..
Brown would easily be 30pts per game player on many teams in todays defenseless NBA.

But if Celts cant aggregate contracts in trade, that would have to be 3 or 4 teams trade..

As I said I would like to see him on Bulls, but what we could offer is not that good. Unless White bumps up his value even more and its kinda a sign and trade to Celtics,if possible.. but we would have to include few picks.. White, PWill, picks.. but I still think Celtics would prefer not to do it?! They can always stack up the roster with few min vets and fill up the bench.

[jnrjr79]

Maybe after next season they go into trading route,but still kinda doubtfull, unless their results turn really bad..
Brown would easily be 30pts per game player on many teams in todays defenseless NBA.

But if Celts cant aggregate contracts in trade, that would have to be 3 or 4 teams trade..

As I said I would like to see him on Bulls, but what we could offer is not that good. Unless White bumps up his value even more and its kinda a sign and trade to Celtics,if possible.. but we would have to include few picks.. White, PWill, picks.. but I still think Celtics would prefer not to do it?! They can always stack up the roster with few min vets and fill up the bench.

Why would the Celts being unable to aggregate contracts necessitate a 3 or 4 team trade? The non-aggregation rule only applies go the outbound contract.

[WesPeace]

Maybe after next season they go into trading route,but still kinda doubtfull, unless their results turn really bad..
Brown would easily be 30pts per game player on many teams in todays defenseless NBA.

But if Celts cant aggregate contracts in trade, that would have to be 3 or 4 teams trade..

As I said I would like to see him on Bulls, but what we could offer is not that good. Unless White bumps up his value even more and its kinda a sign and trade to Celtics,if possible.. but we would have to include few picks.. White, PWill, picks.. but I still think Celtics would prefer not to do it?! They can always stack up the roster with few min vets and fill up the bench.

Why would the Celts being unable to aggregate contracts necessitate a 3 or 4 team trade? The non-aggregation rule only applies go the outbound contract.

Oh, thanx....my bad, didnt know that

[Infinity2152]

Maybe after next season they go into trading route,but still kinda doubtfull, unless their results turn really bad..
Brown would easily be 30pts per game player on many teams in todays defenseless NBA.

But if Celts cant aggregate contracts in trade, that would have to be 3 or 4 teams trade..

As I said I would liTeams cannot use a trade exception generated by aggregating the salaries of multiple players
Teams cannot include cash in a trade
Teams cannot use a trade exception generated in a prior year
First-round picks seven years out are frozen (unable to be traded)
A team's first-round pick is moved to the end of the first round if they remain in the second apron for three out of five seasonske to see him on Bulls, but what we could offer is not that good. Unless White bumps up his value even more and its kinda a sign and trade to Celtics,if possible.. but we would have to include few picks.. White, PWill, picks.. but I still think Celtics would prefer not to do it?! They can always stack up the roster with few min vets and fill up the bench.

I said it would probably be a 3-4 team trade, lol. Kept arguing back and forth because guys are acting like our guys have no value, but in reality those aren't the players the Celtics would receive. That's the package we send out. Maybe we add another pick, who cares? That number 5 pick is worth about 4-5 future firsts, imo. Tatum, Brown, White and a bunch of minimums are not title contenders, imo, and that's all they'll be able to afford. Yes, think next season will go bad for them if they continue this way. They can't handle ANY starter injury, and with 36 yr old Jrue and Porzingas, don't see that happening.

Their starting lineup costs 198.4 mill next year. Sam Hauser makes $10 mill on the bench. Pritchard makes 7 mill on the bench. Salary cap is looking like $155 mill. You need strong benches to win in the NBA, most times.

Inability to aggregate doesn't completely stop them. But they'll essentially need to do a 3 or 4 for 1 trade to move Jrue for instance. Unless the other team has cap space or is trading a player that cost just as much, so what's the point, lol. When they have empty roster spots, that can work. If they don't they'll have to waive players, they can't add low cost players to the trade.

Penalties for being above the second apron:

No access to the $5 million taxpayer midlevel exception
Teams cannot use a trade exception generated by aggregating the salaries of multiple players
Teams cannot include cash in a trade
Teams cannot use a trade exception generated in a prior year
First-round picks seven years out are frozen (unable to be traded)
A team's first-round pick is moved to the end of the first round if they remain in the second apron for three out of five seasons

Plus first apron penalties, they get both:
Teams cannot acquire a player in a sign-and-trade if that player keeps them above the apron
Teams cannot sign a player waived during the regular season whose salary was over the $12.2 million midlevel exception
Salary matching in trades must be within 110 percent, rather than 125 percent for teams not above the apron

Apron penalties are purposefully very hard on teams, and make it hard to get cheap low cost players or replace vets. And their draft picks will be at the end of the first round.

[WesPeace]

Holiday, White, Brown, Tatum, Porzingis, Hauser, Pritchard, Queta is solid 8, they need 2-3 good vets and they are still top contender.. is Horford retiring or what I dont know?

[Infinity2152]

Holiday, White, Brown, Tatum, Porzingis, Hauser, Pritchard, Queta is solid 8, they need 2-3 good vets and they are still top contender.. is Horford retiring or what I dont know?

Horford's 39, and Holiday will be 36 next year. That's old for a PG. Quetas was a two way player they signed who's putting up 5pt, 4 rbs with absolutely no range playing 15 minutes. They'll only be able to afford vet minimums, so getting 2-3 good vets will be tough. Don't think Horford has said anything, but at 39, would say it's more likely than not he retires. That team is completely reliant on Porzingas staying healthy, and all the starters need to stay healthy all season as well. Otherwise, Pritchard or Hauser starts and they have absolutely no bench. Don't think that team looks as solid as Denver, OKC, Knicks, or Cavs next year for starters. Bucks could be back. Then you have teams like the Spurs and Rockets that may jump up.

They'll probably keep it together and be really good, but they really need an Andre Drummond minimum contract type deal, and maybe a similar level PF deal or they're going to play those older starters into the dirt.

Horford is a real baller, and a pro. He might play another season, that would help them tremendously. Then they just need everybody to stay healthy.

[pipfan]

Wondering what value Ayo would have? Jones seems like a keeper, and we still have Coby, Huerter, Ball, Giddy in the backcourt