Post#1978 » by DanTown8587 » Sat Jul 28, 2018 3:10 pm
If we were making the pro-Lavine argument based on what was different last year, here is what you'd say
1. He drastically improved the quality of his shots
Some people would say that he was a better offensive player in his third year in Minnesota versus last year and I think that's results based scouting that doesn't look at what he was doing. In Minnesota, he was playing heavily off the ball a lot of the time and assisted on a ton of shots (80.8%) and simply had a lot of three point attempts (43.7% of his shots were threes) that he made a fairly decent percentage of (.387%). He wasn't getting you much offense efficiently that wasn't threes. The guys who profile that way who are good players in this league are either highly rated defenders and/or valuable offensive players in other ways (Otto Porter, Klay Thompson, Robert Covington, Joe Ingles, Gary Harris, etc) so it would be hard for Zach with his other deficiencies to provide value if he was playing a similar offensive role. So what did Zach do last year? He drastically improved his free throw rate (going from 19.7% to 30.1%) while also drastically increasing his shots in the paint (43.9%) compared to the previous year (33.3%). He also slightly cut down on two point jump shots (10-23 feet) from 23.1% to 21.4%. If he continues to cut those shots out, that will only help.
2. He shot woefully below career norms at every level of the floor
Here is how Zach shot his first three years compared to last year
At rim: .652% v .549%
3-10 ft: .351% v .233%
10-16 ft: .323% v .381% (less than 6% of his shots)
16-23 ft: .366% v .255%
3pt: .378% v .341%
corner three: .438% v .214%
Let's say nothing changes at about the location of his shots, simply the way he makes them. Let's say he finishes
at rim - .625
3-10 ft - .340
10-16 ft - .30
16-23 - .35
3pt - .375
All slightly below career average, but let's just see how his scoring numbers impact
New points per 100 - 34.4
New FG% - .442%
New TS% - .549%
At the usage he's rocking, those numbers aren't horrific (they're basically average league efficiency on high volume). If he continues to improve his finishing at the rim to include more made shots and/or more fouls, that will continue to improve the TS%. If he continues to take even less and less of those long twos, he'll really see a surge seeing how poorly he shoots those.
3. He finally did other things on the floor
His non-scoring per 100 in Minnesota year 3
Rebounds - 4.6
Assists - 4.0
Steals - 1.2
That's woefully bad contribution in other areas for a guy who plays that many minutes. If you have a guy out there who is nothing more than a scorer, he better be REALLY good at scoring and doing a lot of it.
Last year in Chicago
Rebounds - 7.0
Assists - 5.4
Steals - 1.8
Who got to 35/7/5 per 100 while playing 30 minutes a night last year? Only
Harden (42/7.5/12)
Curry (39.8/7.7/9.2)
Durant (37.1/9.6/7.6)
Lillard (36.6/6.1/9.0)
James (36.4/11.5/12.1)
Giannis (36.4/13.6/6.5)
Embiid (36.3/17.4/5.0)
Obviously Zach's numbers pale woefully to theirs but it's hard to imagine Zach not being a positive player if that's his contributions.
So we will see what happens with Zach. Year 5 is going to tell a lot of whether the rates he did things at last year was a little flukey (his FTR and rebound/assists numbers are drastically higher than previous years) or if he's made subtle changes since his time in Minnesota that shows he's ready to be a better player. Because even with that "great' scoring year in Minnesota in year 3, he was a net negative player and had a below league average PER (14.6).
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