What is Omer Asik's impact (Bigs Stat Comparsion)

[Mech Engineer]

I think based on Rerisen's stats...the Bulls eventually keep Asik and Taj. The Bulls obviously have these stats and much more analysis/knowledge about these things than most of us who are pulling comments out of our a%%.

But, the human nature of the arguments on this topic might impact the Bulls FO too. This is like the Republicans/Democrats on Universal Health debate. They will go to any extremes to defend their side of it. Those kind of elements definitely exist in the FO and that might tilt the decision one way or the other even with all the advanced stats.

[RichardsRival3]

How do these numbers account for the fact that Asik plays with Taj while Noah plays with Boozer?

I still think Noah is the better player and would rather move Asik for a pick or young player.

[Rerisen]

How do these numbers account for the fact that Asik plays with Taj while Noah plays with Boozer?

What Adjusted Plus-Minus does:
It reflects the impact of each player on his team's scoring margin after controlling for the strength of every teammate and every opponent during each minute he's on the court.

In simplistic terms the numbers learn over countless combinations and results that Boozer is impacting the defense worse than Gibson, therefore Asik's final defensive rating will be adjusted down for playing more with Gibson instead of with Boozer, as well as down or up for all the various teammates and opponents he's played with and faced. It tracks every single lineup combination for every minute the player has played, and what the results were of those matchups.

[micromonkey]

Houston/Morey are advanced stat guys and this is a big reason they are going after Asik--they get his offense to zero and he's a huge impact player.

Following RAPM and other synergy stats since last year I keep worrying most about the rise of Taj.
GMs see this and know he's also a 12/10 guy who can play center a lot of nights in this small ball league (where he is even more effective) he could get crazy money if we let him hit FA.

[dice]

Houston/Morey are advanced stat guys and this is a big reason they are going after Asik--they get his offense to zero and he's a huge impact player.

good luck with that, egghead. and keeping him out of foul trouble

[UGABulls]

But yeah, Taj and Asik all day for me in those Heat type games when the score is 82=80 with 3 minutes to go.

Bulls will lose with those guys in for sure. Better to pray Noah and Boozer are having good games.

[sach1]

well IMO if we have a scoring guard or SF that will greatly help Drose on offense the Bulls can Live with Gibson and Asik as our bigmen.

[sco]

First of all, thanks for the analysis. It is very useful. A few points to consider:

1) If we let Omer go, we can give his minutes to Taj and go with the Taj/Boozer combo more. I'm not sure there is a big drop-off.

2) Alternatively, if we keep Omer, I would suggest we start Taj this year and pump-up his value for a s&t next year (because we tried that with Boozer this year, and that didn't work). At that point we may get Mirotic.

3) Yes Omer is big, but I wonder if there the Bulls have the defensive corollary to the Nash effect (where guys who play alongside Nash get overvalued due to their offensive production), and bringing in some other big-stiff back-up wouldn't result in another perceived high-quality back-up big.

The other part I struggle with is the opportunity cost of signing Omer. What will we lose? If we're amnestying Boozer or not signing some middling SG with the MLE, I say so what. If we need to trade Noah or Deng or let Taj go, or miss out on a true 2nd option SG, then I say let Omer go.

[molepharmer]

While these numbers may certainly suggest Asik is elite defensively, they also suggest the Bulls shouldn't re-sign Omer at the expense of Taj, because Gibson beats Asik in every category.....and he plays behind the older, more often injured CBooz.

[xpmar9x]

If trading Noah net'd us a LEGIT 2-guard, but I think the only 2guard i'd want would be EG.

I'd rather just let Omer walk and keep Taj. My hope:

Rose - Hinrich - Teague
Nick Young - Hinirch
Deng - Butler
Boozer - Gibson
Noah - Stiemsma

[Cliff Levingston]

I'd rather just let Omer walk and keep Taj.

Cliff Levingston agrees. Omer is a long way off from even being serviceable offensively. We saw in the playoffs how that can affect a game in crunch-time. If you can't feel comfortable with a player's ability to either score or get fouled and make a FT then you're not likely to have him on the floor when it matters. And besides, he's a backup: he doesn't figure to be on the floor when it matters anyway.

We've played plenty of Taj/Boozer lineups, and when you think about it, there's not a lot of centers in the league that Taj couldn't handle on most nights in a backup capacity.

If the Bulls do retain Omer, Cliff Levingston is keeping an eye out for a Joakim Noah deal.