The Zach Lavine Problem

[jimmy_smith]

Last year, he's rank 66th among 86 PG in the league in RPM. (Dunn is 68th, please kill me)

His team ORtg is 109.5 when he is on course
112.1 when he is off course (read : his team score more effectively when he is NOT play)

His redeem quality is his TS which is not bad (.576), at lease he can score quite effectively for himself.

[NZB2323]

He won't play for a lot of the season and he'll be a RFA. We'll be in a good position to keep him on a reasonable deal.

[GimmeDat]

I think we can afford a big contract. Once guys like Wade, Rondo and RoLo are off the books we're going to have to meet the floor some way or another. I don't see how it will inhibit our ability to build.

Picks would've been preferable for this reason, but it's not a deal breaker, imo.

[TheSuzerain]

To what end? We are paying him big money to make our draft picks worse?

in case he turns out to be good?

if the only price is money, we should be willing to spend on young players who have a realistic shot of turning into good nba players! we can afford to swing and miss right now if it turns out he doesn't return to form

Being good isn't enough. He'd need to turn out to be a max level player.

What you're describing is not an effective way to build an NBA contender.

The point of rebuilding is to acquire a core of eventual max talents. Filling the team with "good" players will only hurt your lotto odds. Ideally you will be able gather a few max talents on rookie deals, and then spend up to the soft cap prior to needing to re-sign the young guns. The 76ers are doing this to a T.

Lavine is likely incompatible with that approach. We should deal with LaVine like the 76ers dealt with MCW.

[Rerisen]

I'm just baffled by this. To the max.

I mean, we've seen countless examples of ACL-injured players becoming shadows of themselves (or just never reaching their potential):

Rose
Rondo
Nate Robinson
Rubio
J. Parker
Gallinari
Shaun Livingston

The list goes on.

Hilarious that Pax said we got a "fantastic young lotto player." Give me a break. It's basically gonna be a countdown to the next time, unless he seriously adjusts and reduces his athletic game, and hopefully it's not after the contract extension.

He also blows on defense, and after the injury, will likely be even less interested in pushing his side to side agility on that end.

[TheSuzerain]

He won't play for a lot of the season and he'll be a RFA. We'll be in a good position to keep him on a reasonable deal.

I really really doubt it honestly. If he comes back and shows anything, he's going to get $$$.

[nomorezorro]

mcw was much more likely to be bad and the sixers got a good asset for him

if the bulls can obviously win a trade centered around lavine, sure, go for it. but he's not good enough on his own to inflate this team's record meaningfully, and he's not bad enough to discard out of hand. he's an intriguing young talent. take some time to see where that goes.

[WindyCityBorn]

he should be our only big contract for the next few years, right? there's no reason not to extend him. if he somehow turns into an albatross, we're not going to be ready to contend before he's an expiring deal anyway

To what end? We are paying him big money to make our draft picks worse?

What difference does it make? Lavine could be the only player on the Bulls making any big money for the next 4 years. It's not like we are going to sign some top free agents. Somebody on the team has to get paid. Who would suggest they overpay? Some vet that demands more?

[Rerisen]

Last year, he's rank 66th among 86 PG in the league in RPM. (Dunn is 68th, please kill me)

His team ORtg is 109.5 when he is on course
112.1 when he is off course (read : his team score more effectively when he is NOT play)

And we traded the #3 RPM player in the league for them.

Chrissake do we have an analytics team? I know we do, maybe they aren't any good, or our old gumshoe GMs refuse to listen to them.

It's actually hugely concerning that he's a negative despite already being very efficient. I mean where's the upside? He's not likely to get better at defense to help that end, and he's close to maxed out on offense, unless he turns into Durant, which is a pipe dream.

At least you'd hope they could steal some kind of overlooked impact guy off another team, who might not have volume stats, but rather offers intangibles to help a team win. But nope.

[TheSuzerain]

he should be our only big contract for the next few years, right? there's no reason not to extend him. if he somehow turns into an albatross, we're not going to be ready to contend before he's an expiring deal anyway

To what end? We are paying him big money to make our draft picks worse?

What difference does it make? Lavine could be the only player on the Bulls making any big money for the next 4 years. It's not like we are going to sign some top free agents. Somebody on the team has to get paid. Who would suggest they overpay? Some vet that demands more?

It could hurt our draft position.

If Lavine takes you from #1-3 odds to #4-7 odds, that is a clear detriment to the rebuilding effort.

[Flopper]

I'm just baffled by this. To the max.

I mean, we've seen countless examples of ACL-injured players becoming shadows of themselves (or just never reaching their potential):

Rose
Rondo
Nate Robinson
Rubio
J. Parker
Gallinari
Shaun Livingston

The list goes on.

Hilarious that Pax said we got a "fantastic young lotto player." Give me a break. It's basically gonna be a countdown to the next time, unless he seriously adjusts and reduces his athletic game, and hopefully it's not after the contract extension.

For sure an ACL tear is probably the most serious, career altering injury a basketball player can have, but in Lavine's case I think it was only a partial tear. He was also only 21 when he sustained the injury and being younger always helps when trying to make a recovery from a serious injury. TBH I'm much more concerned about his basketball acumen than his health.

[WindyCityBorn]

The problem is that he tore his ACL in February. Which means best case scenario, he plays his first game for the Bulls after the all star break. But he won't be 100%. Still takes another full year till he's back to about normal. His rookie contract ends after this season and becomes a RFA. So either have to offer him a contract he's willing to sign, match an offer sheet he signs, or extend the one year QO. All of this without seeing how he fully recovers post reconstructive knee surgery.

It's risky.

I doubt teams will be beating down the door of a guy that coming off an ACL tear that plays in maybe 25 to 30 games.

[TheSuzerain]

Last year, he's rank 66th among 86 PG in the league in RPM. (Dunn is 68th, please kill me)

His team ORtg is 109.5 when he is on course
112.1 when he is off course (read : his team score more effectively when he is NOT play)

His redeem quality is his TS which is not bad (.576), at lease he can score quite effectively for himself.

And we traded the #3 RPM player in the league for them.

Chrissake do we have an analytics team? I know we do, maybe they aren't any good, or are old gumshoe GMs refuse to listen to them.

This trade was a very clear signal that whatever analytics team we have has no meaningful input in basketball decisions.

This is a major red flag.

[HoopsterJones]

The problem is that he tore his ACL in February. Which means best case scenario, he plays his first game for the Bulls after the all star break. But he won't be 100%. Still takes another full year till he's back to about normal. His rookie contract ends after this season and becomes a RFA. So either have to offer him a contract he's willing to sign, match an offer sheet he signs, or extend the one year QO. All of this without seeing how he fully recovers post reconstructive knee surgery.

It's risky.

I doubt teams will be beating down the door of a guy that coming off an ACL tear that plays in maybe 25 to 30 games.

You never know. Allen Crabbe signed a $75 million offer sheet. He doesn't have near the talent of Lavine.

[patagonia]

What's the problem? If he plays really well then he'll be worth the contact and if he doesn't then he won't get a max deal and it will be easier for the Bulls to match.

[fudgie]

I might be higher on Lavine than many but I think he can develop into a number 2 option. A number 3 option is probably more realistic but it's possible. That's assuming he recovers from the injury which is a risk in and of itself.

Ideally you're paying that player less than max but a max is not an albatross contract. The likely scenario is that we're near the bottom of the league for the next two seasons. Ideally after that the players we've taken in those drafts have started developing and we can move up from being bottom feeders. At that point Lavine will be in his mid twenties and the only player on the roster with a big contract.

Selling off potential assets like Jordan Bell for cash does not bode well for the rebuild though. This is probably the move that pisses me off more than anything from tonight.

[kodo]

Rebuilding teams have a problem spending enough money to avoid penalties, maxing out Lavine if that's his tier will be trivial. It's not money out of anyone's pocket but JR's.

You have to spend 90% of the cap in recent CBA. This leads to situations where rebuilding teams like the Sixers trade FOR McGee & Gerald Wallace's contracts so they can pay them, and then immediately waive them.

It really won't be an issue. Guys like Otto Porter and Caldwell-Pope will get max, Lavine is at least on that level.

[T-wOlvEs 420]

Zach is a great player. Sad to see him go. So many awesome dunks.. he's as cold blooded as they come. He's going to be fine after this ACL. He works too hard to not be great. and has the desire to be the best.

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[Just_Bullz]

I dont see this as an issue at all.

Lavine is coming back from an ACL injury, he has no bargaining power in terms of contract talks. The cheap front office will probably offer him a cheap deal like how gsw did it to curry when he injured his ankle.

Either lock him up on a cheap deal or let him go if need be. I don't see us splashing cash on him at this moment.

[Mattya]

After he gets a season to play back into game rhythm, i"m guessing a significant majority will be big time fans of this guy.