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Predicting Year 3 Lauri

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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#21 » by ArtMorte » Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:53 pm

It's all fun and analysis until you read "death fatigue".

I'm optimistic that he'll have better idea & ability to score efficiently and hopefully will show a little improvement in creating his own shot. But I think we are a Team with a capital T and how good or bad many players are going to look will greatly depend on how we can take advantage of the strengths of different guys. The supporting cast for Lauri should be the best he's yet had.
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#22 » by Ferulci » Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:29 pm

I'm expecting a Year 3 big improvement but some of the stats shown here aren't realistic. It's not fair to him to expect a Derrick Rose leap.
+3 points, + 2 rebounds with +5% increase on shooting, which means volume getting better along efficiency, is not the norm.
Also, players like WCJ/White/Young will expect more shots than their last year counterpart.

The improvements I'd like to see are those that contribute to the W column. I can live with a 20/8 season on good efficiency as long as :
- He can stay healthy and give us a 75+ games season.
- Show that he is a positive player in advanced stats. Give me positive OBPM/DPBM, some improvements in win share and a good VORP. I'm not even that into analytics but so far they haven't been friendly to him at all.
- Do that February again but try to extend it to several months.
- Show that he can be the leader in that group.
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#23 » by erlim » Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:45 am

I’m guessing 18 towards 19 ppg 7-9 rpg and he will miss 25-30 games.
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#24 » by khufure » Tue Aug 20, 2019 3:27 pm

the team needs to feed him early & often. I'm looking at you PG (starter) ... and Zach.
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#25 » by Markksman_24 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 3:38 pm

erlim wrote:I’m guessing 18 towards 19 ppg 7-9 rpg and he will miss 25-30 games.

So you think he'll be worse than he was last season?
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#26 » by erlim » Tue Aug 20, 2019 3:47 pm

Markksman_24 wrote:
erlim wrote:I’m guessing 18 towards 19 ppg 7-9 rpg and he will miss 25-30 games.

So you think he'll be worse than he was last season?


No, 19 and 9 like last year is within the realm of reason.
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#27 » by PaKii94 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:34 pm

sco wrote:I think his RB's will and somewhat should come down. The main reason is that RoLo's game was all about blocking out vs rebounding, which inflates the teammates RB's. I expect WCj to be more of a rebounder. Second, some rebounds came as a result of our horrid shooting - more misses on offense, mean more rebounds - optimistically that improves this year. Finally, I don't want Lauri to be posting in the paint this year...rather have him on perimeter for 3's and cuts off fakes.


Clint Eastwood wrote:The whole team is better and deeper. While I think lauri will be great this year, it may not be as obvious just looking at his stats. I see 20p, 8.5 rb, 3 as on 47% fg, 40% from 3. With Wendell, Thaddeus, Lavine, Porter, Sato, white


CBS7 wrote:I don't think he'll be a 12 rebounds per game guy. Closer to 10.

I'm predicting 22/10/2 on 59 TS%


TheFinishSniper wrote:I dont think Lauri will ever rebound more in his career than he did till now. Simply because Rolo was such unique center which allowed others to collect rebound while keeping opponents off the glass. Which gave Markkanen ability and opportunity to push in transition with ball in his hands. So i personally think at best he will keep current rebound rate. Unless Bulls plan to change WCJ's role how to play defense.

Because WCJ is guy going after rebounds. It will be interesting dynamic how them two work out.


League Circles wrote:
TheFinishSniper wrote:I dont think Lauri will ever rebound more in his career than he did till now. Simply because Rolo was such unique center which allowed others to collect rebound while keeping opponents off the glass. Which gave Markkanen ability and opportunity to push in transition with ball in his hands. So i personally think at best he will keep current rebound rate. Unless Bulls plan to change WCJ's role how to play defense.

Because WCJ is guy going after rebounds. It will be interesting dynamic how them two work out.

Rolo did do that, but IMO it's not very rare. Carlos Boozer and even Felicio tended to do similar boxing out. I didn't see WCJ much but I'd like to think he can do that, at least down the road. And of course Lauri will become a better fundamental rebounder (and probably play more C) as time goes on.


erlim wrote:I’m guessing 18 towards 19 ppg 7-9 rpg and he will miss 25-30 games.


This is to address the rebounding concerns. Besides coming back from injury, he hasn't been below 9 rebounds per game (p36). Then since he started being aggressive with the boards (this wasn't in relation to rolo, he was just more active on the glass) he didn't dip below 10 p36. Now the Rolo effect: Lauri has played 16 games without Rolo (7x baby fatigue, 7x flamethrower, 1x elbow injury, 1x solid soph). He averaged 8.4 reb p36. The caveats with this is: half the games came during "unhealthy" games. and after Rolo these past 2 seasons, we haven't had another (semi)legit C. Lauri was playing next to Portis, Parker, Felicio, hutch...Hopefully WCJ can be a strong box out/rebounder. I do agree 12-13 rebounds for the season might be too optimistic but I would be disappointed if he dipped to 9 and I am expecting 10+. He was already at 10 p36 last year overall.
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#28 » by PaKii94 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:37 pm

ZOMG wrote:I still have a problem with people calling Lauri inconsistent. To me, a young player being inconsistent means putting up 18 points in one game, 6 points the next, then 20 again, then 4 - while playing essentially the same minutes. Lauri's never been like that - over his career, he's pretty much been a lock to give you at least 16 and 7 night in, night out, no matter who he's playing.

He's been consistent for a young big, but what he hasn't been is efficient. Last year, his finishing near the basket was truly atrocious. He absolutely can't repeat that this season. There was a feeling in 2018-2019 that his constant failures to score near the post didn't mean much in the big picture - it was a lost season anyway, so why not let the kid learn something, right? Well... this year, it's different. The team WILL look for him to score when he has a mismatch, and there has to be some accountability.


To me he is consistently inconsistent, that's why I broke it into phases. When he's healthy he's actually very consistent (similar numbers both years for "healthy" games). Like you said he is not like typical players where inconsistency means single digits one night and 20+ another. For Lauri it's like phases. Hopefully he can stay healthy and we can have one long phase of consistency.


As for finishing around the rim, I was watching his rookie highlights and comparing it to this past season and he was playing pretty different styles. Rookie season he was more of a big forward, and this year he was a legit big (but struggling to finish). Hopefully he can put both together this up coming year. Lauri did say he was using last year as a practice year. It's time to for him to show us what he's got
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#29 » by PaKii94 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:45 pm

RedBulls23 wrote:I appreciate the work you put into this.

I feel like 57% TS would be optimistic considering he's been at about 55 the last two seasons. If he's at 60% or more, that will be superstar level efficiency.

If he gave the team 20 and 10 on 57% TS next season, that would be really good, and worthy of an allstar selection.


Well that's the thing. In his "healthy" games he is already at ~60% TS. We just need to see a full healthy season from him and I think he will hit it. However, injuries can't be ignored and I do think those will bring down his overall stats.


Ferulci wrote:I'm expecting a Year 3 big improvement but some of the stats shown here aren't realistic. It's not fair to him to expect a Derrick Rose leap.
+3 points, + 2 rebounds with +5% increase on shooting, which means volume getting better along efficiency, is not the norm.
Also, players like WCJ/White/Young will expect more shots than their last year counterpart.

The improvements I'd like to see are those that contribute to the W column. I can live with a 20/8 season on good efficiency as long as :
- He can stay healthy and give us a 75+ games season.
- Show that he is a positive player in advanced stats. Give me positive OBPM/DPBM, some improvements in win share and a good VORP. I'm not even that into analytics but so far they haven't been friendly to him at all.
- Do that February again but try to extend it to several months.
- Show that he can be the leader in that group.


It's more like .3 points, .7 rebound, +0% increase in shooting for healthy games. His overall stat line can improve that much if he stays healthy. If he gets more injuries/misses multiple games again, then this goes out the window. Then the discussion begins can he ever be durable enough to be a primetime option. I agree with the rest of your points. His february showing did show positive impact in advanced analytics, now it has to happen the full season.


erlim wrote:
Markksman_24 wrote:
erlim wrote:I’m guessing 18 towards 19 ppg 7-9 rpg and he will miss 25-30 games.

So you think he'll be worse than he was last season?


No, 19 and 9 like last year is within the realm of reason.


If Lauri repeats his averages last year that would be very disappointing. A third year player should improve (and hopefully stay healthy). What you're implying is he will get WORSE (if your statline is p36 minutes)
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#30 » by PaKii94 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:46 pm

ZOMG wrote:
Proven_Winner wrote:I think he turns up his 3pt% to 40%+ this year. Now we should have more space so Lauri doesn’t have to shoot so far or over his defender so often. I feel Lauri can only shine so much before he needs his teammates to play their role.

I feel like we really underrate his shooting because of the percentages but he’s dangerous to let have space. Most games he’s taking some really tough 3s just because that’s all we could get in a possession but I think teams definitely gameplan to make that happen. Lauri’s guy is always glued to his hip because they know he’s more of a shooting threat than we give him credit for.

Along with that I think he ups his rebounding and gets a consistent 10 per game.


Markkanen missed a HUGE number of wide open threes last season.


Proven_Winner wrote:I think he turns up his 3pt% to 40%+ this year. Now we should have more space so Lauri doesn’t have to shoot so far or over his defender so often. I feel Lauri can only shine so much before he needs his teammates to play their role.

I feel like we really underrate his shooting because of the percentages but he’s dangerous to let have space. Most games he’s taking some really tough 3s just because that’s all we could get in a possession but I think teams definitely gameplan to make that happen. Lauri’s guy is always glued to his hip because they know he’s more of a shooting threat than we give him credit for.

Along with that I think he ups his rebounding and gets a consistent 10 per game.


TheFinishSniper wrote:Markkanen does need to become better shooter. Weird thing to say for one our better shooters on roster. But his numbers look more like one of guards than of bigs. Sure that has part of it with his style of play. But he really does need to be sharpshooter who needs to be doubled, trapped to be stopped otherwise he will nail everything it's given.

Not saying he needs to go Steph Curry here, but moment he is open that must be guaranteed bucket and already start moving back on defense knowing it will go in. Basically something he can do in sleep.

In what numbers and percentages that translate I dont care, but thats need to be part of his game. 7-foot sharpshoot sniper. He is one of rare guys who could actually do that.


I'm not really concerned about his shooting. He had a major injury to his shooting elbow! Obviously that will be a limiting factor. Hopefully he's over it and doesn't hit it again.
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#31 » by PaKii94 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:48 pm

Another factor y'all are failing to consider is his utilization. We had horrid PG/team play. My main frustration this year was Dunn freezing out Lauri. We saw what a utilized Lauri can do in February (Super nova).... and it still isn't his peak. His raw shooting statline was relatively mediocre and he still had a strong impact.
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#32 » by RedBulls23 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 8:15 pm

PaKii94 wrote:
Well that's the thing. In his "healthy" games he is already at ~60% TS. We just need to see a full healthy season from him and I think he will hit it. However, injuries can't be ignored and I do think those will bring down his overall stats.

Everyone has stretches where they are more efficent than their season or career averages.

60% TS isn't realistic bet for the season even if he's healthy for the most part. Imo, if he finishes at 57% and averages 20 and 10 then he'll be an allstar caliber player.

60% with 22 and 11 is elite territory. After the last 2 seasons, I'm not holding my breath on those numbers. 20 and 10 might be doable, but that too isn't easy considering there aren't that many bigs/players that give you 20 and 10 a game.
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#33 » by PaKii94 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:23 pm

RedBulls23 wrote:
PaKii94 wrote:
Well that's the thing. In his "healthy" games he is already at ~60% TS. We just need to see a full healthy season from him and I think he will hit it. However, injuries can't be ignored and I do think those will bring down his overall stats.

Everyone has stretches where they are more efficent than their season or career averages.

60% TS isn't realistic bet for the season even if he's healthy for the most part. Imo, if he finishes at 57% and averages 20 and 10 then he'll be an allstar caliber player.

60% with 22 and 11 is elite territory. After the last 2 seasons, I'm not holding my breath on those numbers. 20 and 10 might be doable, but that too isn't easy considering there aren't that many bigs/players that give you 20 and 10 a game.


I'm sorry friend but I think you're selling Lauri short. We need to hold Lauri to the elite level. If you look at other 3 point shooting young bigs, they all have TS near 60% at high usage. He is similar to KD/KAT/Jokic in that regard.

Also, the reason for my original post was to show the "healthy" games weren't just hot streaks. They were just his normal levels which include the highs and lows. Injuries/baby/fatigue just took a toll on him and greatly reduce his numbers (to consistently bad numbers) during the bad stretches.

In his "healthy" games, including inconsistencies he was hovering around 60% TS and that's without elite (hot shooting) numbers. The only hot steak he has had so far in his career is phase 6: flamethrower when he was at 49/50 splits and 64 TS%. The rest include the normal up and down of slumps and spikes.

People think the February surge was a "hot streak" but it really wasn't. That was just Lauri being utilized as a first option. In fact, I believe he under performed during that stretch. Look at his shooting splits 46/36. A young big should be around 50% FG and a sharpshooter like Lauri should be around 40% 3P which would entail 60+ TS%. During the February timeframe, if he hit those splits THAT would be a hot streak and he would be at like 30 ppg & 65-70 TS% (which shows he wasn't really hitting his ceiling). I expect hot streaks like those to occur next season (with a more consistent shot) and thus his overall averages will be around 60% TS when you counter in the slumps.

The sophomore year numbers (Sophomore - 21.7p/10.3r/1.5a on 46/39, 58.6 TS%) don't include the first 6 games (recovery from elbow injury) and his fatigue death. The rest is just him playing I wasn't cherry picking hot numbers. Do you really consider the games I removed as slumps? They weren't regular lauri just missing shots. They were clearly something is wrong with Lauri type of games (either injury recovery or illness) and just by that he's already above your criteria of 20/10 57%. I mean for the season he was at 20/10 55%. Him just increasing his TS by 2% would be a disappointment because this years numbers included those horrid games. If it was regular lauri averaging that, that means something is wrong and that's why overall numbers can be deceiving.

If you want to talk statistics, the phases I removed were (by the statistical definition) significantly different (i.e. outliers). They weren't part of the variation in his overall distribution (which is what you consider the normal slumps/highs and where cherry picking would happen to artificially inflate numbers).
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#34 » by PaKii94 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:41 pm

As a qualifier, I make a living as a data scientist lol so I do know the dangers of making flawed conclusions based on cherry picked data.
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#35 » by RedBulls23 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:31 pm

PaKii94 wrote:As a qualifier, I make a living as a data scientist lol so I do know the dangers of making flawed conclusions based on cherry picked data.

For the record, here are all the players that have averaged even just 20 pts and 10 rebs with a 60% TS for the history of the league.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_active=Y&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=pts_per_g&c1comp=gt&c1val=20&c2stat=trb_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=10&c3stat=ts_pct&c3comp=gt&c3val=60&order_by=ws

I just don't see it being likely, so we'll just agree to disagree. Hope you're right though.
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#36 » by PaKii94 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:19 am

RedBulls23 wrote:
PaKii94 wrote:As a qualifier, I make a living as a data scientist lol so I do know the dangers of making flawed conclusions based on cherry picked data.

For the record, here are all the players that have averaged even just 20 pts and 10 rebs with a 60% TS for the history of the league.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_active=Y&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=pts_per_g&c1comp=gt&c1val=20&c2stat=trb_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=10&c3stat=ts_pct&c3comp=gt&c3val=60&order_by=ws

I just don't see it being likely, so we'll just agree to disagree. Hope you're right though.


:wink: You're helping me prove my point. I'll make a believer in you yet!

1. Because of that list is why I am saying Lauri needs to be held to a higher standard. That is the kind of player he can get to if he is healthy. There is a reason I call him baby Dirk and think he can reach GOAT stretch 4 status by the end of his career. (<- That will probably completely invalidate my opinion in some peoples' minds but someone will eventually supersede Dirk and I believe it will be Lauri). His game reminds me of a slower, longer Durant

2. The numbers I'm quoting is per 36 minutes. You're list is per game. Here is the same criteria per 36 minutes: http://bkref.com/tiny/q8GEV

A lot less exclusive. However, this is the more interesting search: 20p/10r + 60% TS + 1 3pm
http://bkref.com/tiny/5tCrn

Look at that! Players I compared Lauri to :wink: Anyway, you'll say he hasn't gotten there yet, he still has to do it. well...

3. Here is what I was saying is his true healthy numbers: 21.7p/10.3r/1.5a on 46/39, 58.6 TS%
Maybe he won't hit those board + point numbers. Let's see what players hit 20p/8r +58 % TS + 1 3pm : http://bkref.com/tiny/wXsyz
Those same players pop up.

"But those are cherry picked"

4.Let's loosen it up then to his stats last year (but less boards): 20p/7r + 55% TS + 1 3pm
http://bkref.com/tiny/ttqer

Again in high company. He already was already at like an all-star level in production LAST YEAR.

I am usually level headed in my posts but I am 100% in on Lauri. Elite level scoring comes so naturally for him. Last year he was STRUGGLING for most of the season and yet he still got 20/10 55TS%.


---

EDIT: Still messing around with it lol. Just to hammer it in (and if you don't like me messing with p36):

Here is Lauri's raw per game stats from last year: 18.5/9 on 55 TS%: http://bkref.com/tiny/p2n03

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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#37 » by RedBulls23 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:31 am

PaKii94 wrote:
RedBulls23 wrote:
PaKii94 wrote:As a qualifier, I make a living as a data scientist lol so I do know the dangers of making flawed conclusions based on cherry picked data.

For the record, here are all the players that have averaged even just 20 pts and 10 rebs with a 60% TS for the history of the league.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_active=Y&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=pts_per_g&c1comp=gt&c1val=20&c2stat=trb_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=10&c3stat=ts_pct&c3comp=gt&c3val=60&order_by=ws

I just don't see it being likely, so we'll just agree to disagree. Hope you're right though.


:wink: You're helping me prove my point. I'll make a believer in you yet!

1. Because of that list is why I am saying Lauri needs to be held to a higher standard. That is the kind of player he can get to if he is healthy. There is a reason I call him baby Dirk and think he can reach GOAT stretch 4 status by the end of his career. (<- That will probably completely invalidate my opinion in some peoples' minds but someone will eventually supersede Dirk and I believe it will be Lauri). His game reminds me of a slower, longer Durant

2. The numbers I'm quoting is per 36 minutes. You're list is per game. Here is the same criteria per 36 minutes: http://bkref.com/tiny/q8GEV

A lot less exclusive. However, this is the more interesting search: 20p/10r + 60% TS + 1 3pm
http://bkref.com/tiny/5tCrn

Look at that! Players I compared Lauri to :wink: Anyway, you'll say he hasn't gotten there yet, he still has to do it. well...

3. Here is what I was saying is his true healthy numbers: 21.7p/10.3r/1.5a on 46/39, 58.6 TS%
Maybe he won't hit those board + point numbers. Let's see what players hit 20p/8r +58 % TS + 1 3pm : http://bkref.com/tiny/wXsyz
Those same players pop up.

"But those are cherry picked"

4.Let's loosen it up then to his stats last year (but less boards): 20p/7r + 55% TS + 1 3pm
http://bkref.com/tiny/ttqer

Again in high company. He already was already at like an all-star level in production LAST YEAR.

I am usually level headed in my posts but I am 100% in on Lauri. Elite level scoring comes so naturally for him. Last year he was STRUGGLING for most of the season and yet he still got 20/10 55TS%.


---

EDIT: Still messing around with it lol. Just to hammer it in (and if you don't like me messing with p36):

Here is Lauri's raw per game stats from last year: 18.5/9 on 55 TS%: http://bkref.com/tiny/p2n03

Image

You've changed the arguement here. Never said Lauri can't be an allstar or be more efficient in general.

All I'm saying is if next season he is at 20 and 10 with a 57% TS, that will be the optimistic numbers and that is allstar caliber. I can't see him running before he's walking. Not yet anyways. The 22 pts on 60% TS is a elite company, and I don't think is a realistic to set those expectations on him. Not yet anyways.
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#38 » by PaKii94 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:09 pm

RedBulls23 wrote:
PaKii94 wrote:


:wink: You're helping me prove my point. I'll make a believer in you yet!

1. Because of that list is why I am saying Lauri needs to be held to a higher standard. That is the kind of player he can get to if he is healthy. There is a reason I call him baby Dirk and think he can reach GOAT stretch 4 status by the end of his career. (<- That will probably completely invalidate my opinion in some peoples' minds but someone will eventually supersede Dirk and I believe it will be Lauri). His game reminds me of a slower, longer Durant

2. The numbers I'm quoting is per 36 minutes. You're list is per game. Here is the same criteria per 36 minutes: http://bkref.com/tiny/q8GEV

A lot less exclusive. However, this is the more interesting search: 20p/10r + 60% TS + 1 3pm
http://bkref.com/tiny/5tCrn

Look at that! Players I compared Lauri to :wink: Anyway, you'll say he hasn't gotten there yet, he still has to do it. well...

3. Here is what I was saying is his true healthy numbers: 21.7p/10.3r/1.5a on 46/39, 58.6 TS%
Maybe he won't hit those board + point numbers. Let's see what players hit 20p/8r +58 % TS + 1 3pm : http://bkref.com/tiny/wXsyz
Those same players pop up.

"But those are cherry picked"

4.Let's loosen it up then to his stats last year (but less boards): 20p/7r + 55% TS + 1 3pm
http://bkref.com/tiny/ttqer

Again in high company. He already was already at like an all-star level in production LAST YEAR.

I am usually level headed in my posts but I am 100% in on Lauri. Elite level scoring comes so naturally for him. Last year he was STRUGGLING for most of the season and yet he still got 20/10 55TS%.


---

EDIT: Still messing around with it lol. Just to hammer it in (and if you don't like me messing with p36):

Here is Lauri's raw per game stats from last year: 18.5/9 on 55 TS%: http://bkref.com/tiny/p2n03

Image

You've changed the arguement here. Never said Lauri can't be an allstar or be more efficient in general.

All I'm saying is if next season he is at 20 and 10 with a 57% TS, that will be the optimistic numbers and that is allstar caliber. I can't see him running before he's walking. Not yet anyways. The 22 pts on 60% TS is a elite company, and I don't think is a realistic to set those expectations on him. Not yet anyways.



I am not changing the argument. You missed MY point. You're point is he has to reach 20/10 57% TS first and then we can talk about improving from that. My point is last year, he's already reached those numbers you state! That's why I am saying, hold him to a higher standard.

I'll broaden my numbers more. Let's include his elbow injury recovery.
Last year, for the first 40 games of his season (per 36 mins), he was at 21p/10r on 57%TS until he hit his fatigue death (19p on 49%TS).

I don't think it's valid to includes those last 12 games because those were drastic outliers from his norm. He obviously had an illness/other problem. If you believe the fatigue death was a normal slump or something reoccuring, then that's a seperate discussion and I believe we should trade Lauri ASAP because those were putrid games.

In fact, if you look at those 40 games, he was clearly trending upwards for the season and getting in rhythm accumulating to his February of 25p/12r on 62.5% TS

So when you say 20/10 57TS% is optimistic for Lauri, in my mind, you are saying it's optimistic that he regresses from his last year numbers which I see as highly unlikely (because again, that 21p/10r 57TS% INCLUDES the natural slumps in his game). For a third year player to maintain status quo or regress would be a major disappointment in my eyes. Third year is when he should take a step forward.

Me predicting 25p/12r 62TS% is the truer optimistic prediction where he would replicate february for the season (He could tbh... my thought is february was a beta test for the season)

As for the comparisons I posted

Here is Lauri's raw per game stats from last year: 18.5/9 on 55 TS%: http://bkref.com/tiny/p2n03


The reason I used his raw overall stats (which include everything, including his extreme lows) is because even at that level, Lauri was already being clustered with all star level talent.... after a semi disappointing sophomore campaign. Not that he can get there... He's already there! Men lie, women lie, numbers don't. A truly healthy Lauri should start moving up those ranks rapidly to elite status soon enough (Hopefully next season)
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#39 » by ChiCitySPORTS#1 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:58 pm

CBS7 wrote:I don't think he'll be a 12 rebounds per game guy. Closer to 10.

I'm predicting 22/10/2 on 59 TS%



I agree with this. 24-25 PPG is elite level scoring, I dont think he's quite there. Same goes for anything north of 10 RPG.
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Re: Predicting Year 3 Lauri 

Post#40 » by nomorezorro » Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:54 pm

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doing the horny howling cartoon wolf thing
WookieOnRitalin wrote:Game 1. It's where the series is truly 0-0.

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