You don't like the Vuc? What were the alternatives?

[MrSparkle]

Propose to me a hypothetical Zach Lavine trade this summer. He is an expiring $20m at that point. Who is the buyer, and what are we getting back? There is no chance in hell anyone is trading out of this top-4 for a player who'll command 4x the price on the open market in 1 year.

Let's say Orlando kept Vuc/Aminu and inquired about Zach on draft night. Would you do #8/Aminu/Bamba/Anthony? Or Isaac/#8?

Klay and GS's #5? I wouldn't trade Zach for another injury reclamation project. I could see Thibs trying to recreate his MIN fool's gold package. Obi/Ntilikina/#17.

Can't imagine any tank job trading for him. I could see a contender offering their garbage left-overs that they don't need to contend. Given his expiring status, I don't see anyone offering a massive-FRP package.

Frankly, we're probably better off keeping Zach, unless his game hits a huge wall and regresses next year.

AKME's moves just seem like straight-forward buy-low and don't sell-high maneuvers. 1 month of post trade deadline basketball isn't enough to convince me it's a bomb. If post-trade-deadlines were proper evaluation periods, then the FebruLauri-Otto-Zach trio would've won a championship in the bubble.

[Wingy]

The path not chosen is forever greener, but was it really better?

So far, we have not demonstrated we are better with the trade, so all the risks you pose of not doing it (Zach walking, poor results, etc...) still exist, except we are also out two 1st round draft picks and WCJ.

The upside of having those other assets which better fit our timeline is obvious. Would you rather have a lottery pick or not? Yes, you'd rather have one.

There's about a 20% chance that over those two picks you'd have drafted an all-star, that you gave up to have a 2.5 year run towards what?

We now have a very low ceiling, and we're not sure if we have even raised the floor. I'd rather have our picks, and trade Zach for a kings ransom this off-season now that he's proven and start fully over than move forward with our existing roster.

I think the blow it up option before the season, at the trade deadline, or even this offseason would be ok for the most extreme of the extreme super fans - i.e. - a good-sized chunk of the folks you'll find here. I'd prefer to ditch everything but Zach, but I do get the more extreme plan. Crazy fandom aside, I think you know another full rebuild isn't in this franchise's DNA. Nor does it fly with the casual fans (even some less casual fans you find here), season ticket holders, and sponsors.

20% chance of getting an all star between the picks? That seems extremely generous. Then even IF they're an "all star"...are they just another Vuc-level all star? One who won't even reach actual Vuc levels for another 7 years like Zach/Randle?

It's a new team with the trades, taking on a compressed/harder schedule, Zach injured/sick since the trades, no practices, no chance for AKME to fill in better-fitting role players around Zach/Vuc. Is it any surprise we're not immediately better? You come off sounding like this is a finished product, when you know that's not true. This feels like a disingenuous take based on you not liking the move. I understand if people don't like the move, but again, you're putting the alternative on a false pedestal.

[Michael Jackson]

The point for sure is the trade is motivated by Season Ticket holders and Sponsors. They are not going to tolerate a rebuild right now. Our accountant is a season ticket holder and has strong ties to the department and just because us here at RealGM can understand the logic in a rebuild the majority of season ticket holders won’t. Them and the sponsors are where they most important feedback comes from as far as direction of the team. If the Post Butler rebuild had gone a little smoother maybe, but they had run out of rope on that end.

[Wingy]

I'll also add that the Zach walking risk is not equal to what it was before the trade.

The Bulls basically said - we believe in you, and want to build around you. Zach knows the weirdness of the season, and he also knows he wasn't at his best as soon as the trade happened w/the ankle- and now COVID protocols.

Maybe he blames that all on the Bulls? I doubt it.

Of course the risk is still there if it doesn't work out, but I'm quite sure Zach's going to take responsibility for trying to make it work after a proper offseason/training camp. I think he knows they bet on him, and his ability to keep ascending. Grabbing Vuc was a huge risk mitigation.

[Michael Jackson]

Betting on Zach or showing they get a star support is good optics in the long run for showing other players that they would invest in their success here too... even if Zach walks they set a precedent that they will try at least. Makes a difference from the cash considerations trades (which actually had use although we all like to laugh about them)

[dougthonus]

I think the blow it up option before the season, at the trade deadline, or even this offseason would be ok for the most extreme of the extreme super fans - i.e. - a good-sized chunk of the folks you'll find here. I'd prefer to ditch everything but Zach, but I do get the more extreme plan. Crazy fandom aside, I think you know another full rebuild isn't in this franchise's DNA. Nor does it fly with the casual fans (even some less casual fans you find here), season ticket holders, and sponsors.

I get what you are saying, and I agree with these points.

If the point though is, "Well, you can't do the best thing, we're taking that off the table, which of these lesser things would you do instead" then sure, I can pick one, then my next choice would be trading Thad at the deadline for the most we could get (I'm sure at least a 1st), Lauri for the most we could get (even if it was 2nds), and Sato if we could find a 1st for him (unlikely) would have been my plan.

20% chance of getting an all star between the picks? That seems extremely generous. Then even IF they're an "all star"...are they just another Vuc-level all star? One who won't even reach actual Vuc levels for another 7 years like Zach/Randle?

If our pick is in the 7-14 range, that's saying about 1 in 8 players in that range will be an all-star, I may have missed some, but here is the list from 2000-2017:

Steph Curry
Iguodala
Amare
George
Deng
DeRozan
Joe Johnson
Noah
Hayward
Walker
Drummond
Klay
Brook Lopez
Andre Bynum
Caron Butler
Julius Randle
Domantas Sabonis
Bam Adebayo
Donovan Mitchell
Devin Booker
Zach LaVine

21 players in 18 draft years assuming I didn't miss anyone. Outside of Bynum, almost all of these players have a bigger impact IMO than Vuc. Beyond this, there are probably another 5-6 guys I'd project to eventually make all-stars or are at least as good as Vuc that haven't made it yet because guard is more difficult to crack than center and west is more difficult to crack than east (McCullum, Murray, Shai, and maybe a few more but I don't want to go back and look). Also doesn't count near misses to this range like Kawhi and Giannis whom were drafted at 15, so extending the range another pick, actually makes the case even stronger.

That means the odds are actually closer to 30% by my top of he head math of drafting an all-star than 20%.

It's a new team with the trades, taking on a compressed/harder schedule, Zach injured/sick since the trades, no practices, no chance for AKME to fill in better-fitting role players around Zach/Vuc. Is it any surprise we're not immediately better? You come off sounding like this is a finished product, when you know that's not true. This feels like a disingenuous take based on you not liking the move. I understand if people don't like the move, but again, you're putting the alternative on a false pedestal.

I don't think the alternative was guaranteed success.

I'm not sure why you feel my take is "disingenuous based on not liking the move". It's a genuine take based on not liking the move. Not sure why you don't think these things are related. I don't like the move because I think it was a bad move for the reasons I have stated. How could I have not liked the move, but thought it was really good?

If I was gauging it purely on the short term results, and I liked it then 3 weeks later panicked because didn't have initial success then that would be one thing, but that isn't the case. I said right away it was too much to give up and didn't like it for all the reasons I stated, none of which were based on short term record.

If we don't have significant improvement by end of next season (ie, squarely in the 1st round of the playoffs with a competitive series) then this move is a pure loser.

[Michael Jackson]

Yeah I would never classify Doug as a disingenuous poster and is one of the least biased people here IMHO. Now I am still on the fence about this trade and I see a different reason for why it makes sense than he does but I would never consider him a person who doesn't objectively look at the big picture. I've never once seen him dig in on a post based simply off of emotion, and maybe he has but from my experience I can't recall seeing it but I also have forgotten what I did at work yesterday.

[Stratmaster]

Personally I would've only done the Theis/TBJ trades and kept the picks. I believe we could've moved WCJ and Coby in the summer for either picks or a better piece. Let Lauri walk and go into next season with young talent and assets.

I get the reasoning behind the Vuc deal (they wanted to keep LaVine happy and start winning games) but obviously the Bulls, even with all the upgrades, are barely a playoff team in the east. Not to mention a core of LaVine and Vuc is highly flawed with a likely 2nd round exit ceiling.

The real test will be the offseason, at which point the pressure will be on AKME to retool the team around Zach & Vuc. If they fail to do so effectively I believe the trade will end up being a resounding failure.

I don't think it is obvious the Bulls are barely a playoff team in the east next season.

Adding Vuc and Theis inherently changes the way the Bulls have to play. It will take some time, but with the rest of this season, an off-season with some moves that add complimentary rotation players, and a full training camp, i think they are a playoff lock. The Bulls talent level right now is right there with the 5 through 7 seeds in the East. With the right rotation player added I think they can make a run at the 4 seed next season.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

A 4 seed is very optimistic. I don't think we are better than Brooklyn, Philly, Milwaukee, or ATL. Then there's Boston, Charlotte, NY, and Miami who will be on par with, or better than the Bulls.

There are no good PGs to choose from this summer which happens to be our biggest need. So I'm assuming we'll either settle on a washed up Mike Conley or overpay for Ball. Both lackluster options, neither of which significantly moves the needle for us.

With this year's pick likely going to Orlando our only hope is that P-Will makes a significant jump next year, and I mean SIGNIFICANT. Unfortunately the chances of that happening are extremely low based on his play thus far.

To be clear, making a run at the 4 seed isn't a prediction they will get it. There isn't really much difference between the current 4 through 7 and the current Bulls.

Wth the new roster the Bulls don't need to make a PG move if it isn't the right PG.

Ball and Conley absolutely move the needle. It is a little silly to claim we have the worst PG options in the league and then say neither of those 2 would move the needle for the Bulls.

The question is cost benefit. If getting Conley keeps you from filling the spot with someone younger in a year then is it worth it? I say no.

Is Ball capable of being the quality PG of the future the Bulls need? I am not convinced but I don't think anyone can say with certainty one way or another. Is the risk worth it? Likely depends on the price.

If the Bulls have an offense based on running the ball through Vuc in the post this isn't all that critical anymore. A defensive oriented PG who can shoot 3s at a reasonable rate is more of a need than a distributor or attacking PG.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[Michael Jackson]

I would love Conley but I just don't see it being realistic. I just can't fathom why he would want to come here. Even if he left, wouldn't New York throw more money at him? I think of all options though he is the best "somewhat possible" fit.

Ball is fine as a moderate upgrade, but I don't think he has any magic that makes us noticeably better. I believe Conley would, because he knows how to manage a team on the floor... ball just upgrades SAto's skills, which is needed but not a massive improvement.

[Stratmaster]

The path not chosen is forever greener, but was it really better?

So far, we have not demonstrated we are better with the trade, so all the risks you pose of not doing it (Zach walking, poor results, etc...) still exist, except we are also out two 1st round draft picks and WCJ.

The upside of having those other assets which better fit our timeline is obvious. Would you rather have a lottery pick or not? Yes, you'd rather have one.

There's about a 20% chance that over those two picks you'd have drafted an all-star, that you gave up to have a 2.5 year run towards what?

We now have a very low ceiling, and we're not sure if we have even raised the floor. I'd rather have our picks, and trade Zach for a kings ransom this off-season now that he's proven and start fully over than move forward with our existing roster.

You really don't think the Bulls are better with Vuc, Brown and Theis?

I get you might think the ceiling is lower but you know the Bulls improved right? I know you understand that totally changing your offensive and defensive approach due to this additions takes more than 10 games.

It's not like the Bulls replaced a scoring, offensive anchor center with another one. They went from a mostly non existent Center to making the Center position the hub of the offense with the 2nd highest usage on the team.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[Dominator83]

The point for sure is the trade is motivated by Season Ticket holders and Sponsors. They are not going to tolerate a rebuild right now. Our accountant is a season ticket holder and has strong ties to the department and just because us here at RealGM can understand the logic in a rebuild the majority of season ticket holders won’t. Them and the sponsors are where they most important feedback comes from as far as direction of the team. If the Post Butler rebuild had gone a little smoother maybe, but they had run out of rope on that end.

Andthat is a big part of the problem. We just got done wasting the last 3 years, and have WCJ, Coby, and Patrick to show for it. Thats a poo-poo platter to show for 3 wasted years. I felt both before and after the trade, that the only thing that will really help us is some Derrick Rose lottery luck. Not another WCJ or Coby, like real MAJOR prospect that you can only get with like a top 2 or 3 pick.

And we did not rob ourselves of that chance. Its our if we get lucky. Now personally, i would have went in a different trade direction and would have traded Otto and a 2nd for Drummond (how the rest of the league allowed the Lakers to get him for free when he could have been had for expirings and a 2nd is truly disgusting), then followed that up by offering ATL our 1st this year for Collins, and then followed that up by offering 2023 1st for Lonzo (2021 1st if ATL rejected Collins offer)

So i do think we could have gotten more bang for our buck, but still don't have a problem with trying to get good now while Zach is in his prime. After that there will be plenty more years of tanking in the cards.

[dougthonus]

You really don't think the Bulls are better with Vuc, Brown and Theis?

I get you might think the ceiling is lower but you know the Bulls improved right? I know you understand that totally changing your offensive and defensive approach due to this additions takes more than 10 games.

It's not like the Bulls replaced a scoring, offensive anchor center with another one. They went from a mostly non existent Center to making the Center position the hub of the offense with the 2nd highest usage on the team.

I don't know they are better. How could I? It hasn't been demonstrated to be better yet. Good chance Theis won't be here next year, and we haven't been better this year, so it's really just Vuc potentially.

We're absolutely worse on defense. We hope to eventually be better on offense, but we haven't been yet (for lots of logical reasons that I think will flip over time), but do I know for sure the offensive improvement outweighs the defensive problems? Absolutely not. How could I? How could anyone?

I mean I hope they're better, and I think from an absolute standpoint that they will have more talent, but I doubt we added more than 3-4 wins over an 82 game season with this move and think it's still possible (though less likely) we added none or even got worse.

[Stratmaster]

You really don't think the Bulls are better with Vuc, Brown and Theis?

I get you might think the ceiling is lower but you know the Bulls improved right? I know you understand that totally changing your offensive and defensive approach due to this additions takes more than 10 games.

It's not like the Bulls replaced a scoring, offensive anchor center with another one. They went from a mostly non existent Center to making the Center position the hub of the offense with the 2nd highest usage on the team.

I don't know they are better. How could I? It hasn't been demonstrated to be better yet. Good chance Theis won't be here next year, and we haven't been better this year, so it's really just Vuc potentially.

We're absolutely worse on defense. We hope to eventually be better on offense, but we haven't been yet (for lots of logical reasons that I think will flip over time), but do I know for sure the offensive improvement outweighs the defensive problems? Absolutely not. How could I? How could anyone?

I mean I hope they're better, and I think from an absolute standpoint that they will have more talent, but I doubt we added more than 3-4 wins over an 82 game season with this move and think it's still possible (though less likely) we added none or even got worse.

Worse on defense? With Theis and Brown? Vuc is no worse than Carter was defensively, and better on the boards.You don't think the Bulls have been playing their best defense of the year in the last few games (with one obvious exception game)?

They are playing much better basketball. The exceptions were the first few games after the trade. They have beaten 2 winning teams. When Zach gets back this team is as good as the 6 through 10 seeds.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[weneeda2guard]

Imo there is no downside to getting Vuc. Either he becomes a important peice to a contending east team in the 3-4 year window, or we can always flip him for future assets to a contending team that don't mind his services.

The only alternative was to keep shaking the dice at the draft which we have struck out in 4 years in a row. The hope drug feels good for awhile. Don't feel good anymore

[kingkirk]

The path not chosen is forever greener, but was it really better?

What would our team look like next year without the trades?
- The FA class still sucks
- We'd have our pick
- Now we have Zach on the verge of becoming a UFA

I'm hoping to base this discussion on the reality that our ownership is our ownership. They are not allowing a full tank this season.
- "Get Cade" is not a plan...and that "plan" is still in play even w/the trades.

We're probably still hovering where we are right now...sadly, and pathetically fighting for the 10th seed with all our little might. Sure we don't have the talent infusion of Vuc/Theis (and to a much lesser extent TBJ), but there's certainly a chance that continuity and familiarity would've actually lead to more wins in the 2nd half (or at least wouldn't have made us any worse than we are now).
- We're probably picking somewhere between (beloved) 7 to 10.

While I haven't taken a lot of time to come up with my own plan, why let that stop the discussion from starting?

I'll assume we have some sort of luck, and are able to land who I think a lot believe will be the most ready to contribute from day 1 in Davion Mitchell.

Lineup:
- Davion/Sato
- Zach/Coby
- PWill
- Lauri(matched ???)/Thad
- WCJ/Thad

With the weak FA class, I'm not exactly sure how we're going to upgrade in any significant way w/o shedding guys who are valuable when used correctly as role players (i.e. - Thad/Sato). Warts, and all...truth is...Lauri Markkanen is one of the better potential gets in this FA class too.
- S&T for Lonzo...I don't know as it's being realistic. If they wanted to take on say, Lauri $...they'd probably just keep Lonzo.

Then consider the very real possibility someone else loved Davion wreaking defensive havoc throughout the season/tourney, and he gets taken earlier. We end up with a raw youngster like Barnes, or Kai Jones? Yikes.

Even if we get Davion...is he really going to move the needle that much? You've gotta love his tenacity on the defensive end, but I question how much he'll impact an offense (even w/improved shooting%). At his age, he was a literal man among boys.

I see another craptacular Bulls team next season w/o the trades, a lot of losses, and Zach Lavine being a risk to walk...and be traded at diminished value. Maybe the answer is - the ship already sailed, and we should've traded Zach at the deadline. While someone like Leslie will argue (and perhaps correctly) that was the right move, it's just not what our real life ownership group is going to allow. Given ownership limitations, the "other path" looks terribly, terribly bleak to me. I don't understand why there's so many folks looking at it like it was clearly better.

To me it boils down to GarPax sucking for so long, and the ownership group letting them run this thing into the ground for years. I don't think we had a good path either way given the hyper profit-driven ownership group.

You're not going to get a realistic plan from anyone else that actively makes the team better during LaVine's prime.

Most theories will be 'keep assets, stay searching for that next star who's hopefully as good or better than LaVine'.

[kingkirk]

I'll also add that the Zach walking risk is not equal to what it was before the trade.

The Bulls basically said - we believe in you, and want to build around you. Zach knows the weirdness of the season, and he also knows he wasn't at his best as soon as the trade happened w/the ankle- and now COVID protocols.

Maybe he blames that all on the Bulls? I doubt it.

Of course the risk is still there if it doesn't work out, but I'm quite sure Zach's going to take responsibility for trying to make it work after a proper offseason/training camp. I think he knows they bet on him, and his ability to keep ascending. Grabbing Vuc was a huge risk mitigation.

You're correct.

They just brought in another All-Star, a guy who he apparently had some sort of relationship with because they both shared the same agent/agency.

The 16 games he's been here have not gone to plan, for a myriad of reasons, but once this offseason hits, he knows he has another All-Star guy next to him.

The alternative is looking back at a collection of failed GarPax draft picks, another lottery pick who probably doesn't move the needle in the short term being added, and likely another losing season ahead.

I don't see how anyone could possibly argue the Bulls should be more or as concerned about LaVine leaving in UFA post this move than before it.

There's zero logic to that claim imo.

[Am2626]

You really don't think the Bulls are better with Vuc, Brown and Theis?

I get you might think the ceiling is lower but you know the Bulls improved right? I know you understand that totally changing your offensive and defensive approach due to this additions takes more than 10 games.

It's not like the Bulls replaced a scoring, offensive anchor center with another one. They went from a mostly non existent Center to making the Center position the hub of the offense with the 2nd highest usage on the team.

I don't know they are better. How could I? It hasn't been demonstrated to be better yet. Good chance Theis won't be here next year, and we haven't been better this year, so it's really just Vuc potentially.

We're absolutely worse on defense. We hope to eventually be better on offense, but we haven't been yet (for lots of logical reasons that I think will flip over time), but do I know for sure the offensive improvement outweighs the defensive problems? Absolutely not. How could I? How could anyone?

I mean I hope they're better, and I think from an absolute standpoint that they will have more talent, but I doubt we added more than 3-4 wins over an 82 game season with this move and think it's still possible (though less likely) we added none or even got worse.

Worse on defense? With Theis and Brown? Vuc is no worse than Carter was defensively, and better on the boards.You don't think the Bulls have been playing their best defense of the year in the last few games (with one obvious exception game)?

They are playing much better basketball. The exceptions were the first few games after the trade. They have beaten 2 winning teams. When Zach gets back this team is as good as the 6 through 10 seeds.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

I may give WCJ a slight nod on defense to Vuc but WCJ is still an undersized big. Just because Vuc has more size he is a better rebounder and shot blocker than WCJ. Offensively there is obviously no comparison. As a whole Vuc has taken the Center position from a weakness to a strength.

Yes and over the last several games the Bulls as a team have become much better defensively. It will be interesting to see what happens when Zach comes back regarding their defensive intensity.

The Bulls are embarking on a very brutal stretch so I think their season is pretty much over. Good opportunity to improve their draft odds and try and land a top 4 pick and come in next year ready to compete for the playoffs.

[HomoSapien]

WCJ is theoretically the better defender, but he was giving up big numbers to opposing numbers left and right. Perhaps you can blame the scheme, but that's clearly happening far less now with Vuc in the middle.

As for Theis, you have to assume that we didn't trade for him just to be a rental. They'll try to resign him if the numbers are right.

[kingkirk]

WCJ is theoretically the better defender, but he was giving up big numbers to opposing numbers left and right. Perhaps you can blame the scheme, but that's clearly happening far less now with Vuc in the middle.

As for Theis, you have to assume that we didn't trade for him just to be a rental. They'll try to resign him if the numbers are right.

Opposing centers are still doing work.

Boucher almost had a 40 & 20 game against the Bulls. Valancinus went off. There's been a few others that are escaping at present, but the point is, it is absolutely not on scheme, but the execution of said scheme.

POA defense dies on a screen --> Vucevic is dropping but caught in a 2 vs 1 scenario --> no one is helping to tag the roll-man because a) they don't have time to get over because the defense is in rotation so quickly or b) they haven't even realised they need to come over and help.

The same issue that existed with Wendell (that I'll argue until I'm blue weren't his fault) are still happening far too often with Vucevic -- of which I barely blame him for.

[Stratmaster]

WCJ is theoretically the better defender, but he was giving up big numbers to opposing numbers left and right. Perhaps you can blame the scheme, but that's clearly happening far less now with Vuc in the middle.

As for Theis, you have to assume that we didn't trade for him just to be a rental. They'll try to resign him if the numbers are right.

Opposing centers are still doing work.

Boucher almost had a 40 & 20 game against the Bulls. Valancinus went off. There's been a few others that are escaping at present, but the point is, it is absolutely not on scheme, but the execution of said scheme.

POA defense dies on a screen --> Vucevic is dropping but caught in a 2 vs 1 scenario --> no one is helping to tag the roll-man because a) they don't have time to get over because the defense is in rotation so quickly or b) they haven't even realised they need to come over and help.

The same issue that existed with Wendell (that I'll argue until I'm blue weren't his fault) are still happening far too often with Vucevic -- of which I barely blame him for.

Agreed. When I said Vuc is no worse defensively than Carter I should have said the result defensively has been no worse.

It actually seems to be starting to get better with Vuc.

But the defensive approach is also (hopefully) morphing. Much more aggressive in pressuring the ball. Much more doubling of dribblers at the free throw line and in the post.

Everyone keeps talking about energy and effort, but this was a conscious change. Everyone on the team didn't just suddenly decide to do these things at the same time.

My only question is "what took you so long Billy?"

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app