What are 2nd round picks worth really?

[League Circles]

I think a second-round pick in the 30s can be valuable. Talk about them being the lowest possible positive asset is outdated thinking, and I tell League of Circles this every single time he says this -- which is very often. In recent years, the following players have been drafted in the second round:

2014:
Nikola Jokic
Jerami Grant
Spencer Dinwiddie
Jordan Clarkson
Joe Harris
Dwight Powell

2015
Cedi Osman
Montrezl Harrell
Norman Powell
Pat Caugnaton
Josh Richardson
Richaun Holmes

2016
Ivica Zubac
Malcolm Brogdon
Georges Niang

2017
Isaiah Hartenstein
Dillon Brooks
Thomas Bryant
Monte Morris

2018
Jalen Brunson
Mitchell Robinson
Gary Trent Jr.
Bruce Brown
Jared Vanderbilt
Devonte Graham

2019
Nic Claxton
Daniel Gafford


Plenty of starters have been found, and a lot of them in that 30-40 range. Let's not overvalue the pick, it's still far from a guarantee but this isn't the 90s anymore where a 2nd round pick is destined to go to the CBA. Teams are finding real players. Including the Bulls who found Ayo, who is arguably their most desirable young player.

Lol, I do beat this horse to death.

Which positive value assets are worth less than a second round pick? I couldn't think of one. Positive means teams want the player. Any wanted player contract is worth more than any second rounder IMO. But admittedly a lot of existing nba player contracts aren't "wanted".

Lowest value is undesirable contracts.
Next lowest is 2nd round picks.
Then after that you have a mixture of desirable contacts and 1st round picks.

That's everything.

I think a lot of the guys you mentioned are unimportant players.

I do agree that they're worth more than they used to be, because drafting is harder due to one and done.

[League Circles]

This doesn't make a lot of sense. Phillips makes more because the Bulls gave him more, but didn't have to. 0 years guys who aren't second round picks are UDFAs, so less likely to contribute than 2nd round picks. But sure, they'll make the minimum for a 0 year player.

Sounds like you understand it exactly lol. You cannot pay a second rounder less than a zero year salary. Thus, having a second round pick cannot help you save money relative to not having it. Yes, in year one some 2nd rounders probably only get the zero year salary (unlike Phillips), but they all make more in year 2.

Yes, an UDFA projects to contribute slightly less than most second rounders, but IMO it is marginal and I never said it would make a team better on the court anyway. Though I'd argue most 2nd rounders are drafted due to (limited) potential. IMO, having low potential guys as third stringers is often a mistake. IMO, teams are better served having lower potential, more polished guys in those roles. Like think 4 year college players who don't make mistakes but just don't have the physical tools to ever be good. Other good alternatives for end of bench guys on zero year salaries are older G league and foreign pros who were never drafted.

If I was running a team I would routinely be using these zero year contracts to fill out the irrelevant end of my bench rather than pay 17 million **** dollars to Duarte, Carter, THT and Phillips like we are. If we replaced those 4 guys with the best 4 undrafted G league and foreign pros we could find, we'd save like 13 mil against the cap and have an absolutely negligible impact on our season.

What I'm suggesting is that in reality, most teams are not going to sign 0 year UDFAs with their extra roster slots. They are going to sign vets who make more than a 2nd rounder. You *can* sign an UDFA, but it's generally not going to be the best use of a slot.

Agreed. I think all 30 teams make chronic mistakes managing their 3rd string roster spots and contracts.

And because veteran minimums all only count against the cap at the 2nd year salary, and are most often better players than a 2nd year 2nd round pick, AND often slightly less money, AND only needing a one year commitment, I generally think that both true vet min guys (like a Javonte Green type) AND UDFAs are both typically better use of end of bench roster spots than recent 2nd round picks are. Most 2nd round picks hang around the nba for 2-3 years despite not being one of the best 450 players out there.

[2weekswithpay]

The value of a 2nd round pick is certainly better than what it was a decade ago. Buying 2nd round picks isn't really a thing anymore. Remember Jordan Bell? The Bulls sold the 38th overall pick to the Warriors in 2017. In 2023 to get Phillips at 35th overall, the Bulls had to send the Wizards 2 future 2nd round picks.

Also, I don't believe there's a big difference in value for picks in the 25-40 range.

[sco]

The value of a 2nd round pick is certainly better than what it was a decade ago. Buying 2nd round picks isn't really a thing anymore. Remember Jordan Bell? The Bulls sold the 38th overall pick to the Warriors in 2017. In 2023 to get Phillips at 35th overall, the Bulls had to send the Wizards 2 future 2nd round picks.

Also, I don't believe there's a big difference in value for picks in the 25-40 range.

I did some quick research and was surpised that no 2nd round picks have been traded for only cash (i.e. no 2nd rounder going back) since 2020...didn't check further back. I guess the 2 way contracts created more demand, which I can see. Good point!

[kodo]

They're basically currency for trades. They aggregate well to create value. We'll see big trades get done because one team threw in multiple 2nd rounders when a heavily protected 1st isn't available.

That's really how Presti in OKC uses picks, as currency. He hasn't actually built his team on his bazillion picks.
- SGA trade
- Chet OKC's own pick
- Dort 2-way
- Giddey (last year) own pick
- Hartenstein (FA)

The only core guy on OKC from a traded pick that Presti actually used was Williams.

[ChettheJet]

it depends on how deep your rotation is

A new FA PF Phillips
Williams Buzelis
a shiny new rim protecting center Smith
Giddey Ball
White Ayo THT

after you have traded Vucevic and Lavine what are you getting for them that pushes your 2nd round guy back 2-3 slots

with that team one 2nd round pick makes the roster, G, F, C doesn't play much but gets NBA exposure
another 2nd is in the G league

[Donkedave]

There was a write up at the start of the season saying they will start to be of more value with the new CBA. Not sure what that looks like yet tho!

[Wingy]

https://sports.yahoo.com/the-rise-of-second-round-picks-how-the-once-undervalued-draft-assets-are-shaping-a-new-market-landscape-155530243.html

[meekrab]

Yeah, I guess it is semantics. IMO, good definitely means clearly above average. There are 14 required players on a roster. So the 7th man on an average team I'll define as average. We're a bit below average, and Ayo is probably somewhere between our 4th and 8th best player.

Yeah, I agree with this. Good would be synonymous with something above average/replacement level.

The Bulls have 18 rostered players. I guess you can ignore the two-way guys if you want and focus on the 15 actual player. I think Ayo is worse than LaVine. He's worse than Lonzo if you don't ding Lonzo for his minutes restriction. After that, I think there are a lot of slots you can argue. He's worse than 2024-2025 Vooch, but probably better than all prior seasons of Vooch, just because Vooch is so horrid on the defensive end. He can't do what Coby did yesterday, but I'm open to an argument he's better overall than Coby, because Coby also gets cold and is another terrible defender. He's better than Williams, IMO. He's probably better than Giddey, but then lacks Giddey's elite court vision.

Ayo's basic attribute is he's a jack of all trades, but a master of none. So it's interesting to compare him to some of his teammates that have offensive skills that really exceed Ayo's, but all but Lonzo are worse defenders.

Obviously some of this is the Bulls' roster - he'd be lower on the totem pole on a better team.

Well, average is way better than replacement level. Replacement level is a borderline nba player.

By definition, a replacement level player is somebody you could go sign off the street in January, so he's not likely to actually be an NBA player.