Lotto odds based on tomorrow's play-in

Jahensle · Post #21 » by **Jahensle** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 4:17 am

GuardianEnzo wrote:
jump wrote:If Dallas loses tonight, why would they move ahead of Bulls for a better pick? Same record, they advanced further in the plan-in, and the beat the Bulls twice.

No tiebreakers apply and the play-in has no bearing on anything except what it's designed to determine, the final playoff qualifiers. It now comes down to a coin flip.

So if we win the coin flip, we have 11th odds and they will have 12th correct? tankathon shows a weird percentage split that isn't equal.

GuardianEnzo · Post #22 » by **GuardianEnzo** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 4:36 am

Jahensle wrote:
GuardianEnzo wrote:
jump wrote:If Dallas loses tonight, why would they move ahead of Bulls for a better pick? Same record, they advanced further in the plan-in, and the beat the Bulls twice.

No tiebreakers apply and the play-in has no bearing on anything except what it's designed to determine, the final playoff qualifiers. It now comes down to a coin flip.

So if we win the coin flip, we have 11th odds and they will have 12th correct? tankathon shows a weird percentage split that isn't equal.

I don't know why Tankathon is showing something different but AFAIK yes, that's the gist of it.

Also, the last time we were in a lottery flip with Dallas us "winning" is the reason they ended up drafting Luka.

kodo · Post #23 » by **kodo** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 4:51 am

Jahensle wrote:
GuardianEnzo wrote:
jump wrote:If Dallas loses tonight, why would they move ahead of Bulls for a better pick? Same record, they advanced further in the plan-in, and the beat the Bulls twice.

No tiebreakers apply and the play-in has no bearing on anything except what it's designed to determine, the final playoff qualifiers. It now comes down to a coin flip.

So if we win the coin flip, we have 11th odds and they will have 12th correct? tankathon shows a weird percentage split that isn't equal.

If two teams are tied, the coin flip does not seed 1 higher than the other for lotto odds. The lotto balls are split evenly between both teams, it's a true tie. The coin flip comes in if there an odd # of balls. So if team A would have 54 balls and team B 46, both get 50. But if the total is 101, a coin flip determines who gets the extra set of lotto balls. That's why the tankathon sometimes shows special tie odds. They also list the normal odds without ties.

Jcool0 · Post #24 » by **Jcool0** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 5:17 am

Read on Twitter

Post #25 » by **dougthonus** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 12:30 pm

FWIW, I couldn't find a date on the coin flip, but last year results were announced on April 22nd with play-in ending April 19th. That would project a 21st announcement this year if the same timeline were to take place.

Guru · Post #26 » by **Guru** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 12:45 pm

dougthonus wrote:FWIW, I couldn't find a date on the coin flip, but last year results were announced on April 22nd with play-in ending April 19th. That would project a 21st announcement this year if the same timeline were to take place.

You can just imagine this being televised on some streaming service now.....Dirk on one side, Scottie Pippen on the other. Simone Biles flips in to do the ceremonial flip. Maybe a 2 hour event where they show how the coin was minted. The history of coins. Historical coin flips in NBA history.

Post #27 » by **coldfish** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 12:56 pm

Someone correct me if I am wrong but for the lotto itself, our odds are combined. The coin flip only matters if neither team jumps up.

Post #28 » by **dougthonus** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 1:13 pm

coldfish wrote:Someone correct me if I am wrong but for the lotto itself, our odds are combined. The coin flip only matters if neither team jumps up.

The winner gets one 18 combinations and the loser gets 17 combinations as well, so the overall odds of moving up are either 8.1% or 8.4% depending on the results of the flip, but you are correct in that the overall odds are mostly cut in half, so isn't the normal gap between 11 and 12.

jump · Post #29 » by **jump** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 1:19 pm

Is Dallas gets the top pick, we’ll the NBA was in on the Luka trade from the beginning.

cocktailswith_2short · Post #30 » by **cocktailswith_2short** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 1:53 pm

jump wrote:Is Dallas gets the top pick, we’ll the NBA was in on the Luka trade from the beginning.

They won't . The lottery is rigged and the NBA would like to keep the illusion it's not .

Post #31 » by **Ice Man** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 2:20 pm

cocktailswith_2short wrote:They won't . The lottery is rigged and the NBA would like to keep the illusion it's not .

So, if Dallas gets the #1 pick that proves the lottery is rigged, and if Dallas does not get the #1 pick that proves the lottery is rigged. :wink:

jump · Post #32 » by **jump** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 2:25 pm

Ice Man wrote:
cocktailswith_2short wrote:They won't . The lottery is rigged and the NBA would like to keep the illusion it's not .

So, if Dallas gets the #1 pick that proves the lottery is rigged, and if Dallas does not get the #1 pick that proves the lottery is rigged.

Yep.

Post #33 » by **DuckIII** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 4:10 pm

Ice Man wrote:
cocktailswith_2short wrote:They won't . The lottery is rigged and the NBA would like to keep the illusion it's not .

So, if Dallas gets the #1 pick that proves the lottery is rigged, and if Dallas does not get the #1 pick that proves the lottery is rigged.

No, no, no. You are confused. This year they will rig it by not rigging it. If they rigged it then everyone would know it’s rigged, so they un-rig rig it to throw everyone off their scent.

Dan Z · Post #34 » by **Dan Z** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 5:02 pm

If the Bulls get the 11th pick that will be funny. Back-to-back seasons with 39 wins and the 11th pick.

ImSlower · Post #35 » by **ImSlower** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 5:26 pm

I supported AK's decisions last year by never attending a game, buying zero merchandise, and only watching pirated streams.

You Northsiders are having fun with the Cubs at least- my Cardinals and Bulls continue to be on bizarrely similar trajectories, with GMs catering to their owners for sheer profit at the expense of fielding actual competitive teams. At least the Cardinals are swapping the front office and openly admitting to we fans that this is a useless season, hence the colossal attendance drop-off. Barring a shocking mega-trade, the Bulls look like they might max out at a 45 win peak! #6 seed is the dream!

Or hey maybe cocktails and jump are right, there's a colossal conspiracy with Nosferatu, the corpse of David Stern, every owner and FO in the league, Bob Iger, and some aliens and the league will give a huge market a much-needed #1 pick. We got this!

Post #36 » by **dougthonus** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 11:25 pm

DuckIII wrote:
Ice Man wrote:
cocktailswith_2short wrote:They won't . The lottery is rigged and the NBA would like to keep the illusion it's not .

So, if Dallas gets the #1 pick that proves the lottery is rigged, and if Dallas does not get the #1 pick that proves the lottery is rigged.

No, no, no. You are confused. This year they will rig it by not rigging it. If they rigged it then everyone would know it’s rigged, so they un-rig rig it to throw everyone off their scent.

They rig it to lose money.

Let's just look at the market sizes of the most hyped draft picks in recent-ish history:
2003: LeBron / Carmelo - neither go to Chicago or NY which would have been the biggest markets in the lottery, both go to crap places
2004: Dwight Howard - Chicago has really high lotto odds, but no, we don't win, he goes to Orlando where no one cares
2007: Oden / Durant - neither go to Boston or Chicago, nope, they go to Portland and Seattle
2008: Rose - Not really a generational talent, but this one you could actually say feel rigged, so I will put it here
2012: Anthony Davis - Pelicans baby, but to be fair no major market teams in the lotto to rig it for
2019: Zion/JA - Definitely the Pels/Griz and not Chicago or NYK
2023: Wemby - Could have sent him to Chicago, but hell yeah, we want him rotting in San Antonio

These were the guys that stood out to me as super hyped going into the draft, not necessarily who became good after the draft. Griffin, Wall, Simmons, and Kyrie were guys I thought about including, but I didn't think any were quite as hyped as this group. Griffin / Simmons maybe landed in the 2nd best city in the lottery for their years.

But if you think of the really, super duper slam dunk guys, it's basically LeBron, Carmelo, Howard, Oden, Durant, Zion, and Wemby IMO. Not a single one lands in a major market.

patryk7754 · Post #37 » by **patryk7754** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 11:39 pm

Adam silver better rig this for us. Other than the spurts and us, these teams are perpetually inept and terrible like the hornets and wizards or perpetually “in the process” and purposely tank. Two things Adam silver has tried to eliminate. The bulls have done the opposite, despite common sense.

Send rose to be our representative and he gets us the first. And the headlines write themselves

jump · Post #38 » by **jump** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 11:44 pm

DuckIII wrote:
Ice Man wrote:
cocktailswith_2short wrote:They won't . The lottery is rigged and the NBA would like to keep the illusion it's not .

So, if Dallas gets the #1 pick that proves the lottery is rigged, and if Dallas does not get the #1 pick that proves the lottery is rigged.

No, no, no. You are confused. This year they will rig it by not rigging it. If they rigged it then everyone would know it’s rigged, so they un-rig rig it to throw everyone off their scent.

I think you’re right.

Muzbar · Post #39 » by **Muzbar** » Sat Apr 19, 2025 11:59 pm

DuckIII wrote:
Ice Man wrote:
cocktailswith_2short wrote:They won't . The lottery is rigged and the NBA would like to keep the illusion it's not .

So, if Dallas gets the #1 pick that proves the lottery is rigged, and if Dallas does not get the #1 pick that proves the lottery is rigged.

No, no, no. You are confused. This year they will rig it by not rigging it. If they rigged it then everyone would know it’s rigged, so they un-rig rig it to throw everyone off their scent.

Why did all that make perfect sense to me?

Guru · Post #40 » by **Guru** » Mon Apr 21, 2025 3:19 pm

Read somewhere that the coin flip is today at 3pm