OT: The Giannis trade rumors will "probably" start in earnest now

[DropStep]

IMO this won't seriously get traction until at least next summer. I don't think any offers prior to then that don't include a young all star and/or a top 3 guaranteed pick will be entertained by Milwaukee. Giannis has 2 guaranteed years left still.

History says that when a star asks out (and this seems like it might signal a soft ask) that they're mostly moved right away. From Milwaukee's perspective, I'm without Lillard this next year already, so I'm probably completely screwed from competing next year with Giannis.

You're question then is really do you get more for Giannis now or in a year, and the answer to that is probably now, because a team that might take him with 2 years on his deal that might require Giannis to agree to an extension if it was only one year (increased market), plus the receiving team gets Giannis for longer at an earlier age.

Plus another year of tanking, if that's the preferred route.

Milwaukee can't tank until 2031 as it stands now. I think they have given all of the picks they are legally allowed to give away, either outright or protected, plus some swaps. If they want to rebuild through the draft, they either have to get their own picks back (which isn't out of the question), or they have to get other teams' picks back, but then their record wouldn't affect where the picks fall.

"Their 2025 pick is top-four protected (meaning it will convey) and belongs to the Brooklyn Nets through a string of trades that trace back to the Jrue Holiday-New Orleans Pelicans deal. The Pelicans have the right to swap picks in 2026, and they own Milwaukee’s pick outright in 2027.

From 2028 to 2030, it’s a similar ordeal but with the Portland Trail Blazers from the Damian Lillard trade. Portland has the right to swap picks in 2028 and 2030, and they own the Bucks’ pick outright in 2029.

So, from now until 2031, if the Bucks find themselves in the lottery, they won’t reap the rewards."

[jnrjr79]

IMO this won't seriously get traction until at least next summer. I don't think any offers prior to then that don't include a young all star and/or a top 3 guaranteed pick will be entertained by Milwaukee. Giannis has 2 guaranteed years left still.

History says that when a star asks out (and this seems like it might signal a soft ask) that they're mostly moved right away. From Milwaukee's perspective, I'm without Lillard this next year already, so I'm probably completely screwed from competing next year with Giannis.

You're question then is really do you get more for Giannis now or in a year, and the answer to that is probably now, because a team that might take him with 2 years on his deal that might require Giannis to agree to an extension if it was only one year (increased market), plus the receiving team gets Giannis for longer at an earlier age.

Yeah, I think the market for Giannis will be bigger with 2 years left on his deal, because some teams are going to be willing to make big offers even if they don't have a commitment from Giannis to extend.

[dougthonus]

Milwaukee can't tank until 2031 as it stands now. I think they have given all of the picks they are legally allowed to give away, either outright or protected, plus some swaps - and in one case I think they have a double swap, getting the worst of 3 picks. (I could be thinking of the Suns there.) If they want to rebuild through the draft, they either have to get their own picks back (which isn't out of the question), or they have to get other teams' picks back, but then their record wouldn't affect where the picks fall.

"Their 2025 pick is top-four protected (meaning it will convey) and belongs to the Brooklyn Nets through a string of trades that trace back to the Jrue Holiday-New Orleans Pelicans deal. The Pelicans have the right to swap picks in 2026, and they own Milwaukee’s pick outright in 2027.

From 2028 to 2030, it’s a similar ordeal but with the Portland Trail Blazers from the Damian Lillard trade. Portland has the right to swap picks in 2028 and 2030, and they own the Bucks’ pick outright in 2029.

So, from now until 2031, if the Bucks find themselves in the lottery, they won’t reap the rewards."

Just looked it up and man that is ugly.

[MalagaBulls]

Of course:

Read on Twitter

?t=Mn3dpPd_DL55pKobijDK8g&s=19

[DASMACKDOWN]

If we got the first pick, would you rather keep Cooper or trade for Giannis?

[Red8911]

Not sure if I want Giannis or not, obviously would be a huge upgrade and I would take him if the bulls can make it happen. Just think Giannis will start to decline now in his 30s.

Now that it’s out in the open that he would want to go elsewhere I’m sure most teams around the league will attempt to trade for him. If Bucks take the best deal available then I doubt the Bulls have that.

The only way Giannis ends up in Chicago is if he wants to get traded there and Bucks honor his request.

[Axl Rose]

If we got the first pick, would you rather keep Cooper or trade for Giannis?

I don't think the window is big enough to win with Giannis so I'm taking the gamble on Cooper.

[Red8911]

Milwaukee can't tank until 2031 as it stands now. I think they have given all of the picks they are legally allowed to give away, either outright or protected, plus some swaps - and in one case I think they have a double swap, getting the worst of 3 picks. (I could be thinking of the Suns there.) If they want to rebuild through the draft, they either have to get their own picks back (which isn't out of the question), or they have to get other teams' picks back, but then their record wouldn't affect where the picks fall.

"Their 2025 pick is top-four protected (meaning it will convey) and belongs to the Brooklyn Nets through a string of trades that trace back to the Jrue Holiday-New Orleans Pelicans deal. The Pelicans have the right to swap picks in 2026, and they own Milwaukee’s pick outright in 2027.

From 2028 to 2030, it’s a similar ordeal but with the Portland Trail Blazers from the Damian Lillard trade. Portland has the right to swap picks in 2028 and 2030, and they own the Bucks’ pick outright in 2029.

So, from now until 2031, if the Bucks find themselves in the lottery, they won’t reap the rewards."

Just looked it up and man that is ugly.

So what, they can trade Giannis for a bunch of picks and they’ll be fine. Not that picks are going to save them anyway, Milwaukee will probably go back to being one of the worst teams again.

[sco]

If we got the first pick, would you rather keep Cooper or trade for Giannis?

I don't think the window is big enough to win with Giannis so taking the gamble on Cooper.

Because it wouldn't likely be Flagg + expirings for Giannis, prob not.

[Red8911]

If we got the first pick, would you rather keep Cooper or trade for Giannis?

I wonder would Cooper or Giannis hurt Matas development?

[dougthonus]

So what, they can trade Giannis for a bunch of picks and they’ll be fine. Not that picks are going to save them anyway, Milwaukee will probably go back to being one of the worst teams again.

Milwaukee will probably go back to being bad, but when you are bad, not having control of your own pick for five more years is rough. They can get picks back, but it might be hard to get really good picks back because the teams that will trade for Giannis won't have really good picks available and Giannis immediately devalues any picks they have.

[League Circles]

Milwaukee can't tank until 2031 as it stands now. I think they have given all of the picks they are legally allowed to give away, either outright or protected, plus some swaps - and in one case I think they have a double swap, getting the worst of 3 picks. (I could be thinking of the Suns there.) If they want to rebuild through the draft, they either have to get their own picks back (which isn't out of the question), or they have to get other teams' picks back, but then their record wouldn't affect where the picks fall.

"Their 2025 pick is top-four protected (meaning it will convey) and belongs to the Brooklyn Nets through a string of trades that trace back to the Jrue Holiday-New Orleans Pelicans deal. The Pelicans have the right to swap picks in 2026, and they own Milwaukee’s pick outright in 2027.

From 2028 to 2030, it’s a similar ordeal but with the Portland Trail Blazers from the Damian Lillard trade. Portland has the right to swap picks in 2028 and 2030, and they own the Bucks’ pick outright in 2029.

So, from now until 2031, if the Bucks find themselves in the lottery, they won’t reap the rewards."

Just looked it up and man that is ugly.

Yeah, if I understand correctly, they might as well try to find diamonds in the rough to help Giannis compete. Obviously a long shot, but not as long of a shot as rebuilding around "a bunch of picks".

The guy is one of the best players ever, in his prime, with 2+ years left. He's the kind of guy you try very hard not to trade, even if he asks out. He's young enough that having a clean slate of payroll around him, which they'll have in 2027, may be more appealing than we'd guess.

[dougthonus]

Yeah, if I understand correctly, they might as well try to find diamonds in the rough to help Giannis compete. Obviously a long shot, but not as long of a shot as rebuilding around "a bunch of picks".

The guy is one of the best players ever, in his prime, with 2+ years left. He's the kind of guy you try very hard not to trade, even if he asks out. He's young enough that having a clean slate of payroll around him, which they'll have in 2027, may be more appealing than we'd guess.

Yeah, certainly a tough choice, like if you have a 10% chance to keep Giannis in 2027 is that better than the return you get which probably has less than a 10% chance at yielding a player as good as Giannis? Especially if you don't control any of your own picks so have no guarantee of adding lottery talent.

[League Circles]

Yeah, if I understand correctly, they might as well try to find diamonds in the rough to help Giannis compete. Obviously a long shot, but not as long of a shot as rebuilding around "a bunch of picks".

The guy is one of the best players ever, in his prime, with 2+ years left. He's the kind of guy you try very hard not to trade, even if he asks out. He's young enough that having a clean slate of payroll around him, which they'll have in 2027, may be more appealing than we'd guess.

Yeah, certainly a tough choice, like if you have a 10% chance to keep Giannis in 2027 is that better than the return you get which probably has less than a 10% chance at yielding a player as good as Giannis? Especially if you don't control any of your own picks so have no guarantee of adding lottery talent.

They're in a terrible spot. Might even make sense to consider stretch waiving Lady Lillard next summer. They just can't trade Giannis this summer for anything short of a home run package, which requires a top 3 pick this summer or a young all star caliber talent. Nothing else is worth considering, even "20 (future) first round picks"

[League Circles]

Still amazing to think that anyone ever thought Lillard was even half the player that his contract suggests he is. One of the more overrated players of the modern era IMO.

[jnrjr79]

Yeah, if I understand correctly, they might as well try to find diamonds in the rough to help Giannis compete. Obviously a long shot, but not as long of a shot as rebuilding around "a bunch of picks".

The guy is one of the best players ever, in his prime, with 2+ years left. He's the kind of guy you try very hard not to trade, even if he asks out. He's young enough that having a clean slate of payroll around him, which they'll have in 2027, may be more appealing than we'd guess.

Yeah, certainly a tough choice, like if you have a 10% chance to keep Giannis in 2027 is that better than the return you get which probably has less than a 10% chance at yielding a player as good as Giannis? Especially if you don't control any of your own picks so have no guarantee of adding lottery talent.

They're in a terrible spot. Might even make sense to consider stretch waiving Lady Lillard next summer. They just can't trade Giannis this summer for anything short of a home run package, which requires a top 3 pick this summer or a young all star caliber talent. Nothing else is worth considering, even "20 (future) first round picks"

I just don't see any path that makes sense for them beyond taking the best deal they can make this summer. They don't have anything they can do other than the MLE to add to help Giannis, and they're not just an MLE player away at this point.

Ideally they will find a team that is owed picks from some third team to avoid the otherwise inevitable outcome where Giannis makes the team trading for him good, and therefore its picks bad. The exception to that, though, is if the team trading for him has a top 3ish pick this year. That might be good enough. I expect Milwaukee would bite at any offer that included Flagg, though I wonder how many teams would trade Flagg for Giannis.

[MrSparkle]

Still amazing to think that anyone ever thought Lillard was even half the player that his contract suggests he is. One of the more overrated players of the modern era IMO.

Career 22 PER suggests he is a career max player? Perennial Top-5 PG until recently, if you ask me, unless you needed defense. He turned 30, his defense started to drop, and his defensive help and depth charts were never all that good.

Milwaukee's biggest mistake was paying as much as they did for a 33 year old. Unless it's KG (and even then... what did Boston really get? 1 elite run before the injuries started?). Interesting to think how differently it could've gone last year, at least, if the Bucks filled salary with Middleton in the deal instead of Jrue. They sent the wrong guy, although how can you predict injuries to their full extent? Although his drop-off and games missed were pretty significant since 2021. Maybe Portland refused to take his salary.

[League Circles]

Yeah, certainly a tough choice, like if you have a 10% chance to keep Giannis in 2027 is that better than the return you get which probably has less than a 10% chance at yielding a player as good as Giannis? Especially if you don't control any of your own picks so have no guarantee of adding lottery talent.

They're in a terrible spot. Might even make sense to consider stretch waiving Lady Lillard next summer. They just can't trade Giannis this summer for anything short of a home run package, which requires a top 3 pick this summer or a young all star caliber talent. Nothing else is worth considering, even "20 (future) first round picks"

I just don't see any path that makes sense for them beyond taking the best deal they can make this summer. They don't have anything they can do other than the MLE to add to help Giannis, and they're not just an MLE player away at this point.

Ideally they will find a team that is owed picks from some third team to avoid the otherwise inevitable outcome where Giannis makes the team trading for him good, and therefore its picks bad. The exception to that, though, is if the team trading for him has a top 3ish pick this year. That might be good enough. I expect Milwaukee would bite at any offer that included Flagg, though I wonder how many teams would trade Flagg for Giannis.

All depends on what they're offered. Just because it seems obvious to us that they can't win a title doesn't mean they should forfeit 2 years of the best player they'll likely have for the next 100 years.

Going to be extremely hard for them to find a team that can match salary AND give a non absurd talent package back. Giannis is supposed to stay in Milwaukee in terms of how the CBA is supposed to influence these things. Stay in Milwaukee and just not win a lot for the next two years.

[MalagaBulls]

Yeah, I realize more & more that the Bucks are totally screwed and will want someone like Buzelis as a centerpiece. That's a hard no for me.

[dougthonus]

Still amazing to think that anyone ever thought Lillard was even half the player that his contract suggests he is. One of the more overrated players of the modern era IMO.

Career 22 PER suggests he is a career max player? Perennial Top-5 PG until recently, if you ask me, unless you needed defense. He turned 30, his defense started to drop, and his defensive help and depth charts were never all that good.

Milwaukee's biggest mistake was paying as much as they did for a 33 year old. Unless it's KG (and even then... what did Boston really get? 1 elite run before the injuries started?). Interesting to think how differently it could've gone last year, at least, if the Bucks filled salary with Middleton in the deal instead of Jrue. They sent the wrong guy, although how can you predict injuries to their full extent? Although his drop-off and games missed were pretty significant since 2021. Maybe Portland refused to take his salary.

I think they definitely overpaid because Holiday probably had a similar impact on winning to Lillard for their set up. The one thing I'll say though is that we probably can't look at age the way we used to. 33 is probably the new 30, especially for star players. Look at how well Steph has held up. The problem for Lillard now is really the achilles injury rathe than age, but that isn't a thing you could have predicted.