Hello!

[CBS7]

Hi

[drosestruts]

But where will one find accurate salary info now?

As it pertains to the Bulls - beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

Bulls have 7 former lottery picks 26 and under (will be adding an 8th at the draft this year). They very much look, on paper, like a team that "tanked" with players drafted 2, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12 etc.

Big topicsi include:

re-signing Josh Giddey - and for how much

Giddey is 22 years old and averaged 21-11-9 with a 62% TS% post All-star break (and was a +10 during this stretch).

Still, many feel commiting big money to Giddey traps us in the continued cycle of mediocrity, and that despire is track record of getting better every year - Giddey will somehow now be a finished product who couldn't possibly continue to improve in any sort of meaningful way.


What exactly is our core?

You'll get plenty of different answers here. The aforementioned Giddey seems to be the only unviersal lock. Others you'll hear include:

Coby White - A streaky scorer that's greatly improved his handles and change of pace skills. When Coby's hot he can score with the best of them. When he's not you question what it is he's bringing to the table. He's on a super team friendly deal that expires at the end of the season which has made him a popular option in fake trades fans dream up as arm chair GMs

Patrick Williams - most have given up on Williams, and for good reason he legit looked awful last year. His athleticism has been zapped, the defense and 3-point shooting dissapeared, he can't or won't rebound to save his life, and he'll dribble the ball off his foot or step out of bounds every game, guranteed. If the player who graded as the best iso-defender in the nba 2 years ago and who also used to hit 40+% of his threes still exists there's at least a passable albiet overpaid player there. If not.....

Matas Buzelis - Bulls fans love a rookie. By year 4 though you've often somehow become "not good enough to re-sign" - it's a repetiive tale as old as time. Will Matas fall to the same fate? Matas can put together some highlight reel plays on both sides of the ball. His potential could be very high, time will tell if he can reach that potential.

Lonzo Ball - often forgotten due to his injuries, Lonzo is the ultimate glue-guy. He and Giddey were a +12 when on the court together last year (430+ minutes so a decent sample size). Lonzo re-signed a super team friendly extension - only question is if he'll be on the floor. When he is, he's undoubtly a key piece in my eyes.


The Draft

Everyone's upset about the pick - I think there's plenty of talent to be found at pick 12. Recent players picked in this range or later include:

Derrick Lively
Jalen Williams
Alperen Sengun
Tyrese Haliburton
Tyler Herro
Shai Gilgeous Alexander
Devin Booker

Hopefully we can soon add Buzelis and whomever the Bulls pick this year to this lift of draft steals in the early teens

[Ice Man]

If the player who graded as the best iso-defender in the nba 2 years ago

I think it unlikely that Pat was ever at that level. Not doubting the existence of that stat, but I am doubting that it accurately captured Pat's overall defensive impact. First, he didn't look like among the league's best with the eye test. Second, he has never scored particularly well on the Defensive Box Plus Minus measure, which albeit imperfect tends to identify defenders who are regarded as elite. For example, the Thompson brothers, Wemby, Draymond, Caruso, Dayson Daniels, Kris Dunn, and Mobley all score much higher this season than Pat has ever done.

I think the Pat is a great defender mindset comes from 1) Stacey King comparing him to Kawhi, 2) the usual hope that fans place on young players who were high draft picks, 3) and untapped potential. Yes, on some nights Pat did look like he might become an elite defender. Coulda, woulda, shoulda.

[drosestruts]

If the player who graded as the best iso-defender in the nba 2 years ago

I think it unlikely that Pat was ever at that level. Not doubting the existence of that stat, but I am doubting that it accurately captured Pat's overall defensive impact. First, he didn't look like among the league's best with the eye test. Second, he has never scored particularly well on the Defensive Box Plus Minus measure, which albeit imperfect tends to identify defenders who are regarded as elite. For example, the Thompson brothers, Wemby, Draymond, Caruso, Dayson Daniels, Kris Dunn, and Mobley all score much higher this season than Pat has ever done.

I think the Pat is a great defender mindset comes from 1) Stacey King comparing him to Kawhi, 2) the usual hope that fans place on young players who were high draft picks, 3) and untapped potential. Yes, on some nights Pat did look like he might become an elite defender. Coulda, woulda, shoulda.

I don't know what to tell you man

Read on Twitter

Pat played in all 82 games this season - it wasn't a small sample size.

Watch on YouTube

[dougthonus]

If the player who graded as the best iso-defender in the nba 2 years ago

I think it unlikely that Pat was ever at that level. Not doubting the existence of that stat, but I am doubting that it accurately captured Pat's overall defensive impact. First, he didn't look like among the league's best with the eye test. Second, he has never scored particularly well on the Defensive Box Plus Minus measure, which albeit imperfect tends to identify defenders who are regarded as elite. For example, the Thompson brothers, Wemby, Draymond, Caruso, Dayson Daniels, Kris Dunn, and Mobley all score much higher this season than Pat has ever done.

I think the Pat is a great defender mindset comes from 1) Stacey King comparing him to Kawhi, 2) the usual hope that fans place on young players who were high draft picks, 3) and untapped potential. Yes, on some nights Pat did look like he might become an elite defender. Coulda, woulda, shoulda.

I don't know what to tell you man

Read on Twitter

Pat played in all 82 games this season - it wasn't a small sample size.

Watch on YouTube

1: It isn't true, at least not according to NBA.com, he only defended 84 such possessions, not 100, nor was he the lowest in terms of PPP of people who defended as many as he did, though he did score well in the metric, not as well as stated nor in as much volume as stated:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/isolation?SeasonType=Regular+Season&SeasonYear=2022-23&TypeGrouping=defensive

2: ISO defense is more or less a trivial factor in defense unless you are just god awful at it to the point you are targeted (Pat does not seem god awful at it). He averaged less than 10% of his defensive possessions against ISOs, and only 1 possession a game.

As an example, in that same year, Patrick Williams was bottom 15th percentile in defense against screens on a similar number of attempts, 46.5th percentile against pick and roll which was more than 2x as many attempts. Overall, Pat graded out as an average defender that year.

This year, Pat grades out (statistically at least) as a below average defender.

[Ice Man]

Thanks for doing the work, Doug.

[Evil_Headband]

Obviously a silver lining to an imploded career!

[drosestruts]

I think it unlikely that Pat was ever at that level. Not doubting the existence of that stat, but I am doubting that it accurately captured Pat's overall defensive impact. First, he didn't look like among the league's best with the eye test. Second, he has never scored particularly well on the Defensive Box Plus Minus measure, which albeit imperfect tends to identify defenders who are regarded as elite. For example, the Thompson brothers, Wemby, Draymond, Caruso, Dayson Daniels, Kris Dunn, and Mobley all score much higher this season than Pat has ever done.

I think the Pat is a great defender mindset comes from 1) Stacey King comparing him to Kawhi, 2) the usual hope that fans place on young players who were high draft picks, 3) and untapped potential. Yes, on some nights Pat did look like he might become an elite defender. Coulda, woulda, shoulda.

I don't know what to tell you man

Read on Twitter

Pat played in all 82 games this season - it wasn't a small sample size.

Watch on YouTube

1: It isn't true, at least not according to NBA.com, he only defended 84 such possessions, not 100, nor was he the lowest in terms of PPP of people who defended as many as he did, though he did score well in the metric, not as well as stated nor in as much volume as stated:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/isolation?SeasonType=Regular+Season&SeasonYear=2022-23&TypeGrouping=defensive

2: ISO defense is more or less a trivial factor in defense unless you are just god awful at it to the point you are targeted (Pat does not seem god awful at it). He averaged less than 10% of his defensive possessions against ISOs, and only 1 possession a game.

As an example, in that same year, Patrick Williams was bottom 15th percentile in defense against screens on a similar number of attempts, 46.5th percentile against pick and roll which was more than 2x as many attempts. Overall, Pat graded out as an average defender that year.

This year, Pat grades out (statistically at least) as a below average defender.

I do wonder where the Stat Ross Pins mentioned comes from.

It's funny when clicking the nba dot com link and filtering on totals and greater than 100 possessions - the best iso defender is listed as known defensive stud Nikola Vucevic.

The video also linked calls out his issues on defense when being screened while also highlighting is iso defense, help defense, and switching.

Maybe NBA content creators are just creative videos and articles about Pat's good defensive play to get clicks from optimistic Bulls fans

or maybe Pat Williams is a pretty good defender (or at least was in prior years) - and was seen by many in and around the league as more than an average defender.

[Mr. Tibbs]

I still can't read any Shams Carania tweet without thinking about ShamSports. Welcome back.

[dougthonus]

I do wonder where the Stat Ross Pins mentioned comes from.

It's funny when clicking the nba dot com link and filtering on totals and greater than 100 possessions - the best iso defender is listed as known defensive stud Nikola Vucevic.

FWIW, I don't think the metric is all that useful. Defensive metrics like this in general are hard to figure out how to value for a large number of reasons. In particular, looking at ISOs isn't all that useful because ISOs are usually really inefficient plays and people aren't typically guarding them in high volume.

The video also linked calls out his issues on defense when being screened while also highlighting is iso defense, help defense, and switching.

I think Pat williams is an absolutely horrific help defender. He's very frequently slow on rotations and in the wrong spot, and it's fairly frequently pointed out in the broadcasts. I agree a couple years back he was solid in isolation, it looks like he lost athleticism this past year (likely in part at least due to the injury).

Maybe NBA content creators are just creative videos and articles about Pat's good defensive play to get clicks from optimistic Bulls fans

I mean this is definitely true (not of Patrick Williams in particular but of content creators in general trying to pump up players).

or maybe Pat Williams is a pretty good defender (or at least was in prior years) - and was seen by many in and around the league as more than an average defender.

Maybe. If you wanted to say he was a 60th percentile defender two years ago, I wouldn't argue about it, and it's technically above average. I'd say two years ago he was in the middle standard deviation of defensive ability, and this past year, he probably slipped to one standard deviation below average.

[kodo]

or maybe Pat Williams is a pretty good defender (or at least was in prior years) - and was seen by many in and around the league as more than an average defender.

The #s are out there for every team to see, we can see them as fans. This season, Pat as a defender

Isolation: 67th percentile
P&R: 30th
Spot Up: 14th

True isolation is a rarity, most teams in the league only run 6-8 isolations per entire game. A good case of this not being the most valuable type of defense is that Sacramento Zach Lavine is a 96th percentile iso defender. In general the league still considers him a terrible defender.

[drosestruts]

I do wonder where the Stat Ross Pins mentioned comes from.

It's funny when clicking the nba dot com link and filtering on totals and greater than 100 possessions - the best iso defender is listed as known defensive stud Nikola Vucevic.

FWIW, I don't think the metric is all that useful. Defensive metrics like this in general are hard to figure out how to value for a large number of reasons. In particular, looking at ISOs isn't all that useful because ISOs are usually really inefficient plays and people aren't typically guarding them in high volume.

The video also linked calls out his issues on defense when being screened while also highlighting is iso defense, help defense, and switching.

I think Pat williams is an absolutely horrific help defender. He's very frequently slow on rotations and in the wrong spot, and it's fairly frequently pointed out in the broadcasts. I agree a couple years back he was solid in isolation, it looks like he lost athleticism this past year (likely in part at least due to the injury).

Maybe NBA content creators are just creative videos and articles about Pat's good defensive play to get clicks from optimistic Bulls fans

I mean this is definitely true (not of Patrick Williams in particular but of content creators in general trying to pump up players).

or maybe Pat Williams is a pretty good defender (or at least was in prior years) - and was seen by many in and around the league as more than an average defender.

Maybe. If you wanted to say he was a 60th percentile defender two years ago, I wouldn't argue about it, and it's technically above average. I'd say two years ago he was in the middle standard deviation of defensive ability, and this past year, he probably slipped to one standard deviation below average.

I always think back to that Raptors play-in game - LaVine got hot offensivley in the 3rd, but Williams' defense was just as much a reason why Chicago was able to come back and win that game.

Williams is frustrating for a lot of reasons - but you watch those highlights and just think - where is this guy? He didn't look anything like this last year.

Watch on YouTube

[TheJordanRule]

I keep waiting for the slashing, scoring, defensive bad ass he can be at times in short flashes to actually emerge. But how do you regress from a year ago? There's something wrong with this picture. Either bad coaching, or a "let's settle" mentality. The great ones, like Kobe, never settled. Not sure what else can be said about his game that we haven't already picked apart nine ways to Sunday.

[dougthonus]

I always think back to that Raptors play-in game - LaVine got hot offensivley in the 3rd, but Williams' defense was just as much a reason why Chicago was able to come back and win that game.

Williams is frustrating for a lot of reasons - but you watch those highlights and just think - where is this guy? He didn't look anything like this last year.

Watch on YouTube

As I noted, I think he's physically slow / out of shape, probably from the foot injury. Also, his confidence is probably shot a bit too from playing bad.

I do think he needs to regain that athleticism this year, and the Bulls need to focus on him as a POA defender, because that's probably his biggest strength IMO. When he gets into being free safety and has to rotate / switch a lot he becomes far worse the more decisions he has to make.

I'm not really a PW hater or anything, I'm probably one of the few that thinks there is a reasonable chance he can redeem his value. He just needs his shooting to regress back to the mean, get back in shape, stay healthy, and be utilized on ball as much as possible. Those are things within his grasp.

Not saying it will happen, but I don't think he needs to develop all these new skills he has never shown. He just needs to get back to where he was and make iterative improvements.

[evilhoban]

Oh wow! You remind me of some guy who was on a bunch of Bullsbeat podcasts....but that's not you. Great to not have you back!

[Dan Z]

I keep waiting for the slashing, scoring, defensive bad ass he can be at times in short flashes to actually emerge. But how do you regress from a year ago? There's something wrong with this picture. Either bad coaching, or a "let's settle" mentality. The great ones, like Kobe, never settled. Not sure what else can be said about his game that we haven't already picked apart nine ways to Sunday.

It's more than just the great one's who don't settle.

When he's not doing well PW seems to get down on himself and let's it get to him. I'm not sure if that will ever change, but I do think he can improve this upcoming season because last year wasn't good (and he's shown to be better in the past). Ultimately though....how good is he? Will he ever be good enough to justify his contract? Maybe good enough where that won't matter?

[MarkDeeks]

Man seeks consensus, instead sparks robust debate. We are so back.

[Dez]

If the player who graded as the best iso-defender in the nba 2 years ago

I think it unlikely that Pat was ever at that level. Not doubting the existence of that stat, but I am doubting that it accurately captured Pat's overall defensive impact. First, he didn't look like among the league's best with the eye test. Second, he has never scored particularly well on the Defensive Box Plus Minus measure, which albeit imperfect tends to identify defenders who are regarded as elite. For example, the Thompson brothers, Wemby, Draymond, Caruso, Dayson Daniels, Kris Dunn, and Mobley all score much higher this season than Pat has ever done.

I think the Pat is a great defender mindset comes from 1) Stacey King comparing him to Kawhi, 2) the usual hope that fans place on young players who were high draft picks, 3) and untapped potential. Yes, on some nights Pat did look like he might become an elite defender. Coulda, woulda, shoulda.

I don't know what to tell you man

Read on Twitter

Pat played in all 82 games this season - it wasn't a small sample size.

Watch on YouTube

He played 63 games.

[drosestruts]

I think it unlikely that Pat was ever at that level. Not doubting the existence of that stat, but I am doubting that it accurately captured Pat's overall defensive impact. First, he didn't look like among the league's best with the eye test. Second, he has never scored particularly well on the Defensive Box Plus Minus measure, which albeit imperfect tends to identify defenders who are regarded as elite. For example, the Thompson brothers, Wemby, Draymond, Caruso, Dayson Daniels, Kris Dunn, and Mobley all score much higher this season than Pat has ever done.

I think the Pat is a great defender mindset comes from 1) Stacey King comparing him to Kawhi, 2) the usual hope that fans place on young players who were high draft picks, 3) and untapped potential. Yes, on some nights Pat did look like he might become an elite defender. Coulda, woulda, shoulda.

I don't know what to tell you man

Read on Twitter

Pat played in all 82 games this season - it wasn't a small sample size.

Watch on YouTube

He played 63 games.

He played 63 games this year. The tweet/referenced and debated stat is from 2023. When he played 82 games.

[GoBlue72391]

The real question is, if we draft another SF/PF, what do we do with Pat's minutes?

He doesn't deserve any, but he has that long contract and you know AK and Billy aren't going to bench him entirely. Matas is going to need 25+ minutes, the hypothetical rookie will need 15-20, and then there's Giddy, Lonzo, Terry, Phillips, Huerter, etc. who will have some of their minutes overlap.

We really can't afford to be giving 20+ minutes to a guy who frequently plays like one of the worst players in the league in the hopes of saving face with that contract or rebuilding what little value he had in the first place. We will though, obviously. As long as Pat's healthy he's going to play, deserved or not.