What are you expectations for Coby White next season?

[dougthonus]

I think that's fair...and that's how I make a distinction between a true #1 option and a #2 option. The problem is that many, if not most, true #1 options aren't above average defenders, so having Coby in a #2 role with below average defense, makes it hard to keep him while hoping to get a #1 option to get better. The only way it works, is if somehow Matas massively levels up (not likely but not impossible).

In the end, there is no really well defined path to becoming a great team without getting super lucky in the draft. Our only path to get really great is for one of our draft picks to become a star, be it Matas, Noa, or someone in the future. We certainly aren't juicing our odds to get more picks, but it only takes one.

As for the Bulls, my only real hope is that the team is good enough and exciting enough to have a fun season (upper 40s wins) and then hope we get lucky later. I don't know that the odds are super high of that, but it is what it is. There's never a clear path go go from where we are to being a great team, so not surprising we don't have one either.

[rosenthall]

I think he'll likely have a good season that builds on last year, probably something in the neighborhood of 22 / 4 / 4, on okay-ish efficiency. However, I'm undecided on whether or not his output will matter.

That is, I'm not sure if his offense will generate alpha beyond being the beneficiary of occupying the role of being the primary shot-taker. Leading up to the All-Star break, Coby looked like an MLE guy to me, and that was before we saw Cam Thomas have to take the QO this offseason. Post-ASB was different, but he was mostly bum-slaying. And then Davion Mitchell put him out like a night light.

Coby's a really good player, but I still think his value on a playoff team is murky. I have my doubts that his role projects well to a team that can win a playoff series.

I think it's a reach to think his defense will become more than adequate. But he adds a dimension to his game every year, and my hope this year is that he adds more off-ball ability to his game. I think if Coby can run around screens his offense becomes a lot more generalizable.

I'll be paying extra attention to his TS% throughout the year as well as his performance against teams with good defense and strong perimeter defenders. It's been my observation that even when he's playing well Coby can be contained by the league's best defenders, and I'd be interested to know if his ability to draw fouls carries over from last year.

[meekrab]

I expect he'll have the best season of his career.

[Stratmaster]

I expect him to have a season similar to last season.

Pre Zach or post Zach?

Yes.

His play (unlike Giddey’s) had little to do with Zach. Just Coby hot versus Coby not.

[Dez]

I expect him to have a season similar to last season.

Pre Zach or post Zach?

Yes.

His play (unlike Giddey’s) had little to do with Zach. Just Coby hot versus Coby not.

I'll disagree with that, it wasn't a hot streak. The way he was scoring wasn't just bombing 3s, he was scoring in a variety of ways.

Moving Zach definitely gave him a more defined role, he wasn't holding him back but I feel he never had a truly defined role with him here.

[kodo]

From the day he was drafted I always thought he was a Jamal Murray type of player, who has averaged from 17 to 21 ppg. Excellent 3P shooter including off the dribble, and can get obscenely hot and can also go ice cold for weeks.

I don't see him getting to 25 ppg...there's a hard ceiling there where only superstars average 25 ppg like Ant, Durant, Booker, Tatum, Cade, Brunson. I don't think Coby is on that level. Only 6 guard/SFs in the entire league average 25 ppg. If Coby is there he's literally one of the best scorers in the league.

He played incredibly well to average 24 ppg after the break, and the NBA recognized him with EC player of the month which is usually dominated by Giannis or Tatum.

[Red8911]

The fact that Coby isn’t able to extend his contract over 140% from his current one makes absolutely no sense at all. Why would this rule even be made to begin with ?

Now Bulls will have to risk over paying next summer or even losing Coby over this stpd rule.They could have negotiated all season long and eventually agree on a new deal without the pressure of having other teams making crazy offers trying to steal him away.

Adam Silver ruins the NBA in so many ways.

[meekrab]

The fact that Coby isn’t able to extend his contract over 140% from his current one makes absolutely no sense at all. Why would this rule even be made to begin with ?

It used to be even worse, it was 120% until the latest renegotiation.

Anyway the reason is that mid-career veterans deserve to be able to change teams if they want.

[Chi town]

Pre Zach or post Zach?

Yes.

His play (unlike Giddey’s) had little to do with Zach. Just Coby hot versus Coby not.

I'll disagree with that, it wasn't a hot streak. The way he was scoring wasn't just bombing 3s, he was scoring in a variety of ways.

Moving Zach definitely gave him a more defined role, he wasn't holding him back but I feel he never had a truly defined role with him here.

Yeah Dez, I agree. Coby was shooting a lot more FTs. Obviously played way more confident. Was used differently. More usage.

[sco]

Yes.

His play (unlike Giddey’s) had little to do with Zach. Just Coby hot versus Coby not.

I'll disagree with that, it wasn't a hot streak. The way he was scoring wasn't just bombing 3s, he was scoring in a variety of ways.

Moving Zach definitely gave him a more defined role, he wasn't holding him back but I feel he never had a truly defined role with him here.

Yeah Dez, I agree. Coby was shooting a lot more FTs. Obviously played way more confident. Was used differently. More usage.

Is there a place to see his usage numbers pre/post Zach last season? It would be interesting.

[sco]

I'll disagree with that, it wasn't a hot streak. The way he was scoring wasn't just bombing 3s, he was scoring in a variety of ways.

Moving Zach definitely gave him a more defined role, he wasn't holding him back but I feel he never had a truly defined role with him here.

Yeah Dez, I agree. Coby was shooting a lot more FTs. Obviously played way more confident. Was used differently. More usage.

Is there a place to see his usage numbers pre/post Zach last season? It would be interesting.

I asked ChatGPT the answer and it came up with 22.6% with Zach and 26.3% usage without Zach.

Now, again according to ChatGPT (which is very likely wrong), 26.3% is higher than (but pretty close to) full-season numbers for guys like Cade, Bruson, and Ant.

[dougthonus]

Yeah Dez, I agree. Coby was shooting a lot more FTs. Obviously played way more confident. Was used differently. More usage.

Is there a place to see his usage numbers pre/post Zach last season? It would be interesting.

I asked ChatGPT the answer and it came up with 22.6% with Zach and 26.3% usage without Zach.

Now, again according to ChatGPT (which is very likely wrong), 26.3% is higher than (but pretty close to) full-season numbers for guys like Cade, Bruson, and Ant.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/whiteco01/splits/2025

If you look at pre/post all-star break, that's pretty close to the Zach trade point.
23.3% pre, 26.5% post

Last year:
Cade: 33.2%
Brunson: 29.5%
Ant: 31.4%

To add a tiny bit of context, the baseline for usage is 20%, so when thinking high or low usage, you should be referencing how much you are above or below 20%. So Coby (post Zach) was +6.5% and Cade is + 13.2%. There's still a pretty huge gap when you realize you start from a 20% baseline rather than a 0% baseline.

[sco]

Is there a place to see his usage numbers pre/post Zach last season? It would be interesting.

I asked ChatGPT the answer and it came up with 22.6% with Zach and 26.3% usage without Zach.

Now, again according to ChatGPT (which is very likely wrong), 26.3% is higher than (but pretty close to) full-season numbers for guys like Cade, Bruson, and Ant.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/whiteco01/splits/2025

If you look at pre/post all-star break, that's pretty close to the Zach trade point.
23.3% pre, 26.5% post

Last year:
Cade: 33.2%
Brunson: 29.5%
Ant: 31.4%

To add a tiny bit of context, the baseline for usage is 20%, so when thinking high or low usage, you should be referencing how much you are above or below 20%. So Coby (post Zach) was +6.5% and Cade is + 13.2%. There's still a pretty huge gap when you realize you start from a 20% baseline rather than a 0% baseline.

Thanks Doug!

So that makes me feel better about Coby's number and it makes sense, given Giddey's role during that period.

[dougthonus]

Thanks Doug!

So that makes me feel better about Coby's number and it makes sense, given Giddey's role during that period.

I think one thing to think about is that high usage isn't necessarily good. You want everyone's usage to be equivalent to their talent. You could have really high usage and be terrible but you get the ball because there are no better options, and you aren't effective.

So really, you want your usage to be as high as it is the most effective option on your team, and if you are killing it out there, you'd rather be killing it at higher usage than lower usage. In his prime years here (discounting half season and injured season), Zach's usage averaged about 30, so Coby hasn't really picked up the full Zach role so to speak.

Which also makes sense as you eluded to because of Giddey's role.

[kodo]

Yes.

His play (unlike Giddey’s) had little to do with Zach. Just Coby hot versus Coby not.

I'll disagree with that, it wasn't a hot streak. The way he was scoring wasn't just bombing 3s, he was scoring in a variety of ways.

Moving Zach definitely gave him a more defined role, he wasn't holding him back but I feel he never had a truly defined role with him here.

Yeah Dez, I agree. Coby was shooting a lot more FTs. Obviously played way more confident. Was used differently. More usage.

I do agree his game advanced this season and he got more to the line, but overall he's almost certainly going to regress a bit.
He had a 70% TS in April, and 65% TS after March 1st. That's not sustainable as a high volume small guard.

Donovan Mitchell is 57%, Ant is 59%, Brunson 60%, Steph 61%.

Good news is that he can regress a bit and still score as efficiently as those names above. And that will be bad news once the summer is over and we have to pay him.

[Chi town]

I asked ChatGPT the answer and it came up with 22.6% with Zach and 26.3% usage without Zach.

Now, again according to ChatGPT (which is very likely wrong), 26.3% is higher than (but pretty close to) full-season numbers for guys like Cade, Bruson, and Ant.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/whiteco01/splits/2025

If you look at pre/post all-star break, that's pretty close to the Zach trade point.
23.3% pre, 26.5% post

Last year:
Cade: 33.2%
Brunson: 29.5%
Ant: 31.4%

To add a tiny bit of context, the baseline for usage is 20%, so when thinking high or low usage, you should be referencing how much you are above or below 20%. So Coby (post Zach) was +6.5% and Cade is + 13.2%. There's still a pretty huge gap when you realize you start from a 20% baseline rather than a 0% baseline.

Thanks Doug!

So that makes me feel better about Coby's number and it makes sense, given Giddey's role during that period.

Kudos Doug.

Now when we ditch Vuc I’d think his usage will be split between Buz and more Coby too. So I could see Coby getting up to 28 but not over 30.

[sco]

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/whiteco01/splits/2025

If you look at pre/post all-star break, that's pretty close to the Zach trade point.
23.3% pre, 26.5% post

Last year:
Cade: 33.2%
Brunson: 29.5%
Ant: 31.4%

To add a tiny bit of context, the baseline for usage is 20%, so when thinking high or low usage, you should be referencing how much you are above or below 20%. So Coby (post Zach) was +6.5% and Cade is + 13.2%. There's still a pretty huge gap when you realize you start from a 20% baseline rather than a 0% baseline.

Thanks Doug!

So that makes me feel better about Coby's number and it makes sense, given Giddey's role during that period.

Kudos Doug.

Now when we ditch Vuc I’d think his usage will be split between Buz and more Coby too. So I could see Coby getting up to 28 but not over 30.

I am now resolved that Vuc is here til he's 40, but I like your world better!

[Stratmaster]

Pre Zach or post Zach?

Yes.

His play (unlike Giddey’s) had little to do with Zach. Just Coby hot versus Coby not.

I'll disagree with that, it wasn't a hot streak. The way he was scoring wasn't just bombing 3s, he was scoring in a variety of ways.

Moving Zach definitely gave him a more defined role, he wasn't holding him back but I feel he never had a truly defined role with him here.

Coby's role, other than when they tried to make him a PG, has always been the same. In March, Coby looked just like he did during his hot streak the season before. Was that March also? I believe so but I could be wrong. Both of which were pretty damned good. I will say that Lavine leaving allowed Giddey to take ona new role, and the way Giddey played after that definitely helped Coby White. The last 6 games (April
) Coby took fewer shots than he had all season long. But that was only 6 games. December and February were Coby White's 2 worst shooting months of the season. One before Lavine left, one after he left. February was actually his worst shooting month from the field. December was his worst shooting month from 3. What really set March apart was Coby went to the line almost 7 times per game. That, combined with his hot shooting, made it his best scoring month ever. Scoring is, and always has been, his main role and main benefit.

I am not denying Coby benefited from Lavine leaving. He benefited some because of the change in Josh Giddey's role and the level that Giddey was playing at as a distributor. This team has needed a real point player for a long time. Coby's season numbers were uncannily similar to the season before. He averaged 0.2 LESS FGA per game, 1 MORE 3-point attempt per game, 1 MORE FTA, and 1 more PPG, despite playing the last 31 games without Lavine. I expect it will be pretty similar this season.

[madvillian]

To be the same marginally useful starter he's been the last two years. He runs hot and cold. He'd be a fine 6th man on a good team. On ours he's probably our 1st option unless Buzelis just takes a gigantic leap in year 2.

[Shill]

I would sell high because I don't think he can become a plus defender.

We committed to Giddey, so he needs to be paired with a two-way SG. You can't have both starting guards be defensive liabilities unless you're getting truly elite offensive output.

I doubt it happens, so at least we'll be fun to watch.