Season win prediction thread

[jmajew]

I'm actually surprisingly optimistic about this team. I think Giddey will keep up his late season form, Coby will regress a little, but Mata's will take a huge jump. Those three things are a recipe for overachieving. I think our pace will also help us to win more games during the regular season. I don't necessarily think that will work in the playoffs though.

[ghostinthepost1]

I'm going with 45-49 wins for a lot of reasons:

1. The East is really bad.

I fully expect the Celtics, Nets, Pacers, Hornets, and Wizards to all tank hard this year. I would not be surprised if the 76ers are a dumpster fire again. Raptors and Heat don't scare me and the Bucks are one Giannis injury from being maybe the worst team in the East.

2. We're going to get to the free throw line a lot more this year.

Preseason signal, not gospel:

• Matas around 6 FTA per-36
• Giddey around 8 FTA per-36

Those rates would place them in legit foul-draw roles if they translate. Add “Contract-Year Coby” attacking closeouts and playing through contact, and we should see a real jump in FT rate. Free throws = efficient points, set defense behind us, fewer live-ball runouts the other way.

3. Contract Year Coby White

His game has grown each year he's been in the league and now hundreds of millions of dollars are on the line for him this season.

I think we'll see him play like he did post-all star break for the majority of the season after leading the league in transition points last year, wouldn't be shocked if he broken into the top 10 for PPG.

Read on Twitter

4. Matas looks like a star.

Again, I know it's preseason but 27 ppg per36 is insane. The 3 blocks per36 also hopefully means a slightly less awful defense.

5. Giddey might average a triple double.

Average 21/10/10 per36 this preseason. He's finally playing like he's 6'9 and using his size to get to the line.

6. Bench Mob 2.0 + Shooting

Okoro, PWill, Huerter, Ayo, Jalen, Tre Jones, and Collins are all solid NBA rotation players who should contribute this year.

The Bulls also have a bunch of guys who can kind of shoot, 9 players on this roster have shot 38% or higher in a full NBA season at some point in their career:

• PWill
• Okoro
• Huerter
• Ayo
• Jalen
• Vuc
• Giddey
• Coby
• Carter

If a couple of the role guys (ideally PWill, Vuc, Okoro, Huerter, and Ayo) can have good shooting seasons it'll really help with floor spacing.

[Stratmaster]

How many wins for the team this year?

Now that we are through preseason and the roster is set, we know what we will have. We have seen the players play and have a feel for who is going to do what. What do you think the team will do this year?

Personally, I'm more optimistic than I have been. In general I have been voting on the low side of these polls for several years. I don't see some awesome team by any stretch. They have defensive issues galore and no real go to scorer. That said, they now have a collection of competent players and aren't walking into the season expecting a guy or two to miss half the year. The east might be historically bad this year with some of the key injuries.

I think the team is going to be inconsistent, largely based on how they shoot. When they are off from range I don't see them having something they can fall back on to grind out a win.

With that said, I'm going to say 43 wins and an actual playoff series before being bounced in the first round.

I hope you are right, but I think you are wrong. Barring an end of season schedule similar to last seasons I don't see them matching their win total from last year. In my mind, for the Bulls to win more than 39 games:

-Matas would have to emerge as a star, meaning not just that he scores and block shots but that his mistakes are mostly eliminated.
-Coby would have to play at his post all-star level for a full season, and history does not allow me to believe this will happen, although I hope it does.
-Giddey would also have to play at his post all-star level. I think his play will fall somewhere in the middle of his early season, and late season level.
-Vuc will have to have his best season as a Bull. I don't believe the "addition by subtraction" theory with Vuc. However, i also think his best days are behind him. The Bulls still don't have an answer in the middle, especially with Collins going down.
-PWill will have to suddenly play like a lottery pick. This is another "history won't allow me to believe this will happen, although I hope it does" situation.

[Andi Obst]

Had the Bulls at 37 before the Coby injury news, but I'm going with 35 now. Don't see them win significantly less than that because we know the Bulls will push as hard as they possibly can for every win they can get and there will be other teams who will look at the draft if the season doesn't start the way they expect it to (looking at the Celtics, Raptors or maybe the Pacers, for example). With that being said, the ceiling of this group is being a .500 team IMO. The defense certainly won't be good and I don't see the offense being better than league average.

[Ice Man]

I really, truly do not buy the argument that the Bulls' record after the ASG was meaningless because they were not tanking while other teams were.

For one, as people have noted, the Bulls haven't tried to tank in a long time, not since the league went after them for benching Rolo. Yet here have been their post-ASG records -

2024 13-14
2023 14-9
2022 8-15
2021 15-23
2020 3-7
2019 8-16

There was no pattern, before last year, of the Bulls suddenly winning games late in the year. That's because the NBA doesn't work like that. There aren't *that* many teams that are overtly hoping to lose, and even then, the players on the those teams try when they are on the court. Nobody is handing victories away.

It was quite clear why the Bulls performed so well after last year's ASG -

1) Giddey & Matas went from being bad (Giddey) or invisible (Matas) to outright good.
2) The Bulls had an easy schedule. Not because the teams were tanking, but more simply because they weren't much good.

The 2nd point is very much worth considering. No way the Bulls are anything like the 15-5 team with which they finished the season. But the first point remains. Assuming that Giddey & Matas retain their form, the Bulls will clearly be better than they were when the started last year's season. That's a huge jump, from having two guys who weren't helping you to two starters who look as if they will.

[MGB8]

Voted 35-39. I don’t believe in the end year record, at all - don’t think it is predictive of anything. Circumstances surrounding games were very unique, and favorable to the Bulls (moreso than in some other seasons).

I do believe that the Miami play in game was telling. And that game showed the Bulls as not a true playoff team, but also not embarrassingly bad. A sub-500 team in the 9th to 11th place in East area.

The injury to Collins hurts, and Coby too (though supposedly for a lot less time). But I offset that with a somewhat weakened East - Boston losses, Indiana more vulnerable (though should be a playoff team even without Halli and Turner just with internal developments + Carlisle), Philly questionable, Toronto still weak, Washington awful, Brooklyn going from bad to a bit worse (but still can’t take lightly) and who knows what Charlotte is doing.

Bulls could surprise and show higher consistency and execution on both ends, but until we see it, I am not buying in.

[Jeffster81]

I do 40 or so wins. This is dependant on Matas and Giddey taking that next step.

[Stratmaster]

I really, truly do not buy the argument that the Bulls' record after the ASG was meaningless because they were not tanking while other teams were.

For one, as people have noted, the Bulls haven't tried to tank in a long time, not since the league went after them for benching Rolo. Yet here have been their post-ASG records -

2024 13-14
2023 14-9
2022 8-15
2021 15-23
2020 3-7
2019 8-16

There was no pattern, before last year, of the Bulls suddenly winning games late in the year. That's because the NBA doesn't work like that. There aren't *that* many teams that are overtly hoping to lose, and even then, the players on the those teams try when they are on the court. Nobody is handing victories away.

It was quite clear why the Bulls performed so well after last year's ASG -

1) Giddey & Matas went from being bad (Giddey) or invisible (Matas) to outright good.
2) The Bulls had an easy schedule. Not because the teams were tanking, but more simply because they weren't much good.

The 2nd point is very much worth considering. No way the Bulls are anything like the 15-5 team with which they finished the season. But the first point remains. Assuming that Giddey & Matas retain their form, the Bulls will clearly be better than they were when the started last year's season. That's a huge jump, from having two guys who weren't helping you to two starters who look as if they will.

So the late season record the last 3 seasons, from the numbers in your post, is 42-28. But that isn't a trend showing the Bulls are putting more emphasis on wining than other teams in their situation? They haven't been over .500 for a season, but those numbers represent a .600 winning record.

[madvillian]

I think it's much more likely we win 30 than 40 and as such voted 30-34. Our overall roster talent is the same as last year imo, even if Matas takes a huge step forward.

[HomoSapien]

If we are largely healthy, I think we win around 43 games. We'll have the advantage of continuity while much of the rest of the league is going through injuries and transitions. Most of our players are young and improving, so I don't see anyone key taking a step back besides Vuc. I also think Vuc will be gone one way or the other aafter the deadline, and I suspect we'll play better without him. My biggest worry is that Coby's injury could be worse than reported or could become a nagging thing. If he misses significant time, then I think we'll drop down to the mid 30s. We don't have the perimeter offense or shooting to weather his loss.