Doug on "2014 Plan"

[McBulls]

I have trouble thinking ahead two years when it comes to basketball in general, since so much can change in any given year. It seems to me that if a team has a good chance of competing for a top 2 or 3 seed in the conference, it makes sense to go all out to win. Last year was the first year in a long time when this team had a reasonable chance to win it all. The same could have been true this year if the bench mob hadn't been trashed and Rose & Deng came back in the spring.

The state of the team in 2014 is hard to be optimistic about.
My guess is that Deng will be better than ever. He's the kind of player that ages like fine Bordoux. So it's strange to hear so many folks with "sources" hinting that he'll be dumped overboard.

I love Noah as a center, and have faith that like Bill Walton, he will always find a way to make a positive contribution to his team. But the biomechanical Gods punish the feet and ankles of big men. I worry if Noah can fully recover from his terrible injury. I also wonder whether the Bulls management has done anything to upgrade the embarrassing incompetence of the team medical staff.

Players who depend on "athleticism" to be excellent usually mature early, are brilliant for a few years, and then lose their athletic advantage -- sometimes slowly like Kobe and Jordan, and sometimes overnight like David Thompson or, more recently, Brandon Roy. I'm afraid that Rose will find that he is not incredibly quick or elusive as he was in the past as a result of his recent injury. These abilities would have declined in a few years anyway, but my bet is the process has been accelerated. In short, Rose will not be a better player in 2014 than he was in 2011. A smarter player with better vision and perhaps better defensive skills, but not an unstoppable inside offensive threat.

So much for the so-called "core" in 2014. It's hardly worth discussing the rest of the team. Hinrich, RIP, and all other recent additions will be let go. Gibson will be gone long before 2014, since it is inconceivable that the Bulls will pay him market value. So we are left hoping that European prospects low draft picks and an unprecedented signing of the long-awaited second superstar will fill the gaps. The odds may be better than 1.7/100, but not much.

So, prepare for mediocrity for the foreseeable future with our favorite team. I have a feeling that the last two years were the competive, if not financial high point for the next decade for the Bulls.

[babblin-on]

But given that this is obviously their view, and that I have to accept it, I'm having a hard time being too critical of how they are approaching things going forward (that being staying flexible while preserving the ability to put together a contender in Rose's next full season, rather than deciding, today, to sacrifice that season as well).

I think if they were really interested in the bolded, they'd have gotten Courtney Lee or OJ Mayo.

Both are available next summer.

Lee signed a four year deal, Mayo a 2 year deal. How are they available next summer? Trade? Leaving aside the fact that their availability isn't a given, what's the advantage of trading assets of any sort for someone we could've just as easily absorbed into Korver's TPE this summer?

I agree with you to the extent that though the Bulls haven't cleared the decks for 2014 yet, there's enough time between now and then to make moves to free space up for that. But in terms of maintaining the ability to remain competitive in 12-13' I just don't see anything they've done this summer to further that goal, and in fact think they've made it less likely in letting assets go away for nothing.

[ChicagoStrong]

Lee signed a four year deal, Mayo a 2 year deal. How are they available next summer? Trade? Leaving aside the fact that their availability isn't a given, what's the advantage of trading assets of any sort for someone we could've just as easily absorbed into Korver's TPE this summer?

I agree with you to the extent that though the Bulls haven't cleared the decks for 2014 yet, there's enough time between now and then to make moves to free space up for that. But in terms of maintaining the ability to remain competitive in 12-13' I just don't see anything they've done this summer to further that goal, and in fact think they've made it less likely in letting assets go away for nothing.

Mayo signed a deal with an opt out for next summer.

[EastBayFJ]

A lot of focus on the 2014 plan seems to be to get " the stud" which implies the need for cap room to do so

But there is difficulty in doing so with Rose and Noah and Mirotic + Taj at their assumed cost , + Jimmy, Marqy Marq, and two further first round picks .

And then there is what to do with Lu

If he plays through this season odds are he stays

If he opts fo surgery he will be traded when he heals and re-establishes form

Has anyone bothered to look and understand other teams payroll structures and what the cap space landscape looks like in 2 to 3 years? That as currently structured more teams have future room and bigger capacities than ours ?

And if viewed , it is plain to see that already teams seem to be trending toward a large part of their rosters being draft picks and smaller priced guys around a few big dogs.

The player middle class is and will become increasingly under threat. It wll go 2 ways...desperation in elevating faux star max / big money players like Eric Gordon , Roy Hibbert, Nicolas Batum etc and where you can then get guys like OJ Mayo and Courtney Lee doing deals for what they did

This is where guys like Taj Gibson and Tyreke Evans are fascinating . They're mid class players that will mature into an emerging market where a lot of teams will have cap space. Do they get bid high lke a Gordon and Batum or just become exception type players like OJ Mayo ?

And how much value do Noah and Deng really have as trade assets now for young talent ? Especially now that they plateaued and they are what they are ? Is it worth taking them on at the cost and killing your flexibility - flexibility being hope . Hope that you suck enough to get the next Derrick Rose or Blake Griffin, hope that Kevin Love or LaMarcus Aldridge walk away from millions on their team to choose you because they talk the talk of just wanting to win ?

The strategy of flexibility is about a hope on outcomes that largely can't be controlled

As far as I can tell the 2014 plan is about hoping we get lucky with a couple of 15 to 22 range first round picks the next 2 years , hoping we can retain Taj at a sensible price and hoping Jimmy can develop adequately in the next 2 years to cover the eventual loss of Lu , hoping we can turn Lu into a ball handling scoring 2nd creator , or , hoping we can get that player through the draft with our / the Bobcat picks and hoping we get real value of mid to upper mid tier type players at the mid level exceptions in 2 or 3 years when teams with room go crazy and blow their wad in filling their roster with the 2010 equivalents of Carlos Boozer when they whiff on 2nd tier stars like Love, Aldridge and Gay

The 2014 plan will be about keeping the core less Boozer and Deng and trying to turn Deng into value, developing our young talent and future draft assets and getting bang for buck via the mid level exceptions in free agency have nots that miss in the game of musical chairs that will intensify in free agency

[EastBayFJ]

Lee signed a four year deal, Mayo a 2 year deal. How are they available next summer? Trade? Leaving aside the fact that their availability isn't a given, what's the advantage of trading assets of any sort for someone we could've just as easily absorbed into Korver's TPE this summer?

I agree with you to the extent that though the Bulls haven't cleared the decks for 2014 yet, there's enough time between now and then to make moves to free space up for that. But in terms of maintaining the ability to remain competitive in 12-13' I just don't see anything they've done this summer to further that goal, and in fact think they've made it less likely in letting assets go away for nothing.

Mayo signed a deal with an opt out for next summer.

Yep and for these type of free agency have nots there is going to be a lot of shorter tenured deals and therefore a lot more player movement and a much more active free agency market

[EastBayFJ]

I have trouble thinking ahead two years when it comes to basketball in general, since so much can change in any given year. It seems to me that if a team has a good chance of competing for a top 2 or 3 seed in the conference, it makes sense to go all out to win. Last year was the first year in a long time when this team had a reasonable chance to win it all. The same could have been true this year if the bench mob hadn't been trashed and Rose & Deng came back in the spring.

The state of the team in 2014 is hard to be optimistic about.
My guess is that Deng will be better than ever. He's the kind of player that ages like fine Bordoux. So it's strange to hear so many folks with "sources" hinting that he'll be dumped overboard.

I love Noah as a center, and have faith that like Bill Walton, he will always find a way to make a positive contribution to his team. But the biomechanical Gods punish the feet and ankles of big men. I worry if Noah can fully recover from his terrible injury. I also wonder whether the Bulls management has done anything to upgrade the embarrassing incompetence of the team medical staff.

Players who depend on "athleticism" to be excellent usually mature early, are brilliant for a few years, and then lose their athletic advantage -- sometimes slowly like Kobe and Jordan, and sometimes overnight like David Thompson or, more recently, Brandon Roy. I'm afraid that Rose will find that he is not incredibly quick or elusive as he was in the past as a result of his recent injury. These abilities would have declined in a few years anyway, but my bet is the process has been accelerated. In short, Rose will not be a better player in 2014 than he was in 2011. A smarter player with better vision and perhaps better defensive skills, but not an unstoppable inside offensive threat.

So much for the so-called "core" in 2014. It's hardly worth discussing the rest of the team. Hinrich, RIP, and all other recent additions will be let go. Gibson will be gone long before 2014, since it is inconceivable that the Bulls will pay him market value. So we are left hoping that European prospects low draft picks and an unprecedented signing of the long-awaited second superstar will fill the gaps. The odds may be better than 1.7/100, but not much.

So, prepare for mediocrity for the foreseeable future with our favorite team. I have a feeling that the last two years were the competive, if not financial high point for the next decade for the Bulls.

Disagree about Lu

Given his injury history and how hard that horse has been flogged - I do believe that flogged horse will be a dead horse in 2 years that makes no sense to sign on big bucks for what would likely be his last payday contract

You equate him to a fine Bordeaux... I say if he resign him for the money he will likely command its more like the grapes of wrath

[McBulls]

Disagree about Lu

Given his injury history and how hard that horse has been flogged - I do believe that flogged horse will be a dead horse in 2 years that makes no sense to sign on big bucks for what would likely be his last payday contract

You equate him to a fine Bordeaux... I say if he resign him for the money he will likely command its more like the grapes of wrath

Ask Thibs. Deng earned his salary last year and played most of it with a fixable injury. He'll be better once he gets it fixed.

Then again, maybe you'll have to ask Thibs replacement. No point in paying the coach of a mediocre team a competitive salary. He'll be gone in 2014.

[EastBayFJ]

Disagree about Lu

Given his injury history and how hard that horse has been flogged - I do believe that flogged horse will be a dead horse in 2 years that makes no sense to sign on big bucks for what would likely be his last payday contract

You equate him to a fine Bordeaux... I say if he resign him for the money he will likely command its more like the grapes of wrath

Ask Thibs. Deng earned his salary last year and played most of it with a fixable injury. He'll be better once he gets it fixed.

Then again, maybe you'll have to ask Thibs replacement. No point in paying the coach of a mediocre team a competitive salary. He'll be gone in 2014.

I'm not debating Lu's worth presently

I have serious doubts as to his future worth in 2 years with a banged up body and where his skill level wouldn't see him through

Lu's a draft n graft horse. He's our Boxer from Orwell's Animal Farm

When Boxer was no longer useful and couldn't carry the load they got rid of him

[BIGGIEsmalls 23]

For those criticizing the FO, what exactly was your TITLE-WINNING 2012/2013 plan with your franchise player coming off a torn ACL?

Nobody specifically answers that question on this board.

does anybody have the specific elements of who's available, what's being asked for in trades, what is their intent regarding future draft picks, or how the player budget is allocated?

when someone DOES, then you can get someone with a plan. otherwise, someone offering their OPINION, is just subject to other non-informed fans slamming their OPINION; and since opinions are in mass supply herein, doug's is as credible as anybody else. history is most defiinitely on his side.

just because somebody doesn't co-sign managments moves or lack thereof, doesn't dismiss their valid concerns.

as such, 2014 is a sham, and JR will not PAY for a winner, IMHO.

First of all, my post wasn't a direct attack on Doug, as you implied. I simply asked for those that are constantly complaining that our FO didn't go "balls to the wall" for this upcoming Rose-less season, to submit their title plan for this upcoming season. Obviously you & others feel we had a shot at the title this upcoming season. If not, then it's just a ton of complaining for the sake of complaining.

I do agree that we are only giving our OPINIONS......IMHO.

Why do you need a sure fire title winning plan for the next two years in lieu of what we are doing, for something else to be better? There is likely NO moves that would do that.

Doesn't mean the current course is the best.

People have laid out what they would have done like a million times, roughly similar approaches, how is someone still asking this.

It was either commit to being a big spending team, bringing back guys like Asik/Korver to keep competing with a healthy Rose. Alternately using the UG guys to get on a deal like the Gordon one, which would have returned talent and pick. Then trying to trade for your #2 option, via rebalancing total team talent that was already title worthy, or damn near (see record last two years). OR, if we are going to be a budget team start trading assets to get younger (like Deng at draft time) in order to replenish the great value to dollar deals we had prior to 2010, that helped us create such a good team out of that Free Agency.

In other words, don't go down a middle road where we are still holding on to too many big deals that are going to prevent us from clearing enough space to sign what it would take to create a championship team, while also not paying to surround those big deals with the supporting cast necessary to win that way.

I'm only asking for poster's solutions for this upcoming season since a lot of people on this board believe that GarPax are incompetent & JR is cheap. I truly believe that Asik would have been matched if Houston didn't structure their offer with a $15 million price tag in the 3rd year of that deal. I wanted Korver to stay, but the FO had other plans, in which I will be patient with because I actually trust the guys to put together a title contender once D-Rose is close to being fully healthy.

Others have already pointed out that the "2014 plan" is being distorted by some on this board, because 2013 will be the actual start of our new title quest. It came down to the FO looking at the Rose ACL tear as their new reality. Thus they are making moves designed to coincide with his healthy return in the 2013/2014 season, IMHO. They can't come out & publicly state that this upcoming season is a lost season, so they decided to show us instead.

Cut brewer.
Cut watson
Sign Hinrich
Trade Korver + future first for Mayo
Retain Asik

Hope to tread water until Rose gets back in January then catch fire with
Rose / Hinrich
Mayo / Hinrich / Rip
Deng / Rip / Butler
Boozer / Gibson
Noah / Asik

That team could win a title next year depending on how well Rose responds.

Of course, people are going to ask for a team that has a good chance of winning a title instead and that reply is simple. Never going to happen. Ever. The Bulls are not going to be able to ever create a team that is significant favorites over the Heat or maybe even the Thunder. By using that as a criteria, you are putting the team on a permanent treadmill that will never go for a title.

Thanks for submitting this post, Coldfish.

I would actually give that squad a fighter's chance to beat Miami, but the problem I have with it is the same one that I've had since the end of April.......D-Rose will not be healthy enough to lead us to a title this upcoming season.

I know it's only my OPINION, but I have felt & continue to feel strongly about the devastation that his ACL tear had on the franchise & their plans. It will take a season away from Rose & the Bulls.

[Mech Engineer]

Biggie
I think Gar has mentioned in a way that this season is lost. If I remember right, he did say that they lost short-term flexibility but they are still good with long-term flexibility. If I interpret that, 2012-13 is just play it out season and then we will have flexibility to do whatever to win as we thought before Rose's injury. It also might mean we are screwed this year but we have Rose who is still young and that's our long term flexibility.

Gar is an expert at saying things without saying anything.

I think the discussion is less about 2012-13 but is the path the Bulls are taking the right one for long term success or does it take it closer to a c'ship.
IMO, the path might lead to success but it is not only a risky path(as every path is); it looks like it will take a long, long time for this to succeed because of their reluctance to spend on risky assets.

[Future Coach]

Doug, very good article sir. I agree with pretty much everything. The only potential exception would be to include something about trading Boozer for lesser players + best possible pick(s) to gain some flexibility with the salary situation. I find that option better than amnesty, especially since it could (should) have happened before this last draft and doesn't require waiting for 2014 for the Bulls to compare Boozer to Eddie Robinson.


It really sucks that the Bulls have already tossed in the towel for the season. Not only in regards to giving up on competing for a championship, but also in regards to actively improving the team for seasons down the road. It appears to be potentially an entirely wasted season.

[EastBayFJ]

You are also assuming Boozer can be traded for poop, which means , other teams diminish their amnesty options

Boozer essentially has no market unless on equal contract tenure for lesser player(s)


Why would we do that ?

[Future Coach]

You are also assuming Boozer can be traded for poop, which means , other teams diminish their amnesty options

Boozer essentially has no market unless on equal contract tenure for lesser player(s)


Why would we do that ?

1 potential deal I believe was possible was trading him to Toronto before the draft. Some combo of Calderon, Kleiza, Johnson, Forbes and try to get either Davis or their pick (or a future pick)... I think Toronto would have been into that as they would Boozer, Bargs, Derozan and whatever else to sell to Nash to sign as a free agent, which definitely would have been more attractive than the team they really have. For us it would have cleared Boozer's deal, got a starting PG to fill in for Rose, gets depth on the wings (which is a need with Dengs surgery coming up and Brewer/Korver leaving) and a prospect in Davis/draft pick. We would have regressed a little this season, which we will do regardless, but we would have been set up much better for each season after that than we are now.

[dougthonus]

I think it's more like, they're making cost cutting moves now because they don't believe that the moves that they could have made (that would cost lots of money) would actually help them win a title. If Rose were healthy, I'm not sure that they let Asik walk.

But this is demonstrably false. They could have traded for draft picks for guys they later waived. However, they didn't do that in order to save money. Having extra first rounders vs nothing would help them win in the future, but they choose nothing.

Does someone have a source that we could have traded any of Brewer, CJ or Kyle for a first round pick? That seem extremely hard to believe. Those guys have since been proven to be worth jack.

I know of trades that would have returned a 1st for both Korver and Watson that were rejected because the Bulls would have had to take back a one year contract and didn't want to add the salary.

[dougthonus]

Trading Watson/Brewer for bad salary and picks doesn't hurt flexibility, it helps it by adding more assets.

Not having bad contracts is an asset. Why do you think teams pay draft picks to get rid of them? It ABSOLUTELY hurts future flexibility.

How many late first round draft picks are going to help you feel better should Dwight chagne his tune and we don't have the capspace to take him?

We're talking about 1 year deals, those contracts would be more useful for trading for Dwight than the position we're in now. It's HARDER to trade for Dwight now than if we got these picks and kept one year deals on the books. It's harder to trade for Dwight than if we just kept CJ/Watson/Brewer. As I said, we've lost flexibility, not gained it.

[BIGGIEsmalls 23]

But this is demonstrably false. They could have traded for draft picks for guys they later waived. However, they didn't do that in order to save money. Having extra first rounders vs nothing would help them win in the future, but they choose nothing.

Does someone have a source that we could have traded any of Brewer, CJ or Kyle for a first round pick? That seem extremely hard to believe. Those guys have since been proven to be worth jack.

I know of trades that would have returned a 1st for both Korver and Watson that were rejected because the Bulls would have had to take back a one year contract and didn't want to add the salary.

Are we allowed to hear more specifics about these trades?

I'm not asking for a source because I take it from your post that you are the source.

[GetBuLLish]

15 pages into this thread and I read only one poster who actually refuted Doug's article. And that was Duck. Duck basically proposed that the Bulls' '2014' plan might actually consist of dumping every player on the roster not named Rose or Noah. That way, the Bulls would have cap space for a max salary, unlike in Doug's article.

But is that plan really something to dump two years for? Is it better than the two alternatives that Doug laid out. I don't believe so, and it's not even close IMO. First of all, as has been pointed out numerous times, the 2014 free agent class is pretty much a pile of ass. I can't see one realistic option that makes losing the next two years worth it. Secondly, even with this new FA acquisition, this team would be replete with holes. We would still have to replace two starting spots and an entire bench. That would almost certainly mean that 2015-16 would be the only possible and serious chance at contending. So add another year of waiting to your "To Do" list if this is really the approach the Bulls take.

But in reality, the Bulls are most likely doing what Doug has stated: take the "tread water" approach which involves leaking assets for nothing while not creating enough flexibility to land another elite player.

[cot2]

Since Watson, and Brewer were not traded, waived, not claimed, and signed for minimum salary contracts, the players had zero value by themselves. The only value was that of being able to clear cap space, by cutting them, before they became guaranteed. Korver had enough positive value, relative to his contract, to get out from under the $500K guarantee, but not enough to bring a pick, without taking something bad back, or they would have jumped on it.

If there really were deals, that would have returned draft picks, almost by definition, the players obtained would have had a negative value, at least equal to those picks. The other team would in essence be paying the Bulls to take the contracts off their hands, sticking the Bulls with players that would tie up the limited cap space they had to work with.

So if there were any offered deals, the negative value of their contracts would make the Bulls worse short term, to gain whatever picks were supposedly offer. You can see why the Bulls would pass on that type of opportunity. I am surprised the Bulls board would want to go that route, but after the call for a Deng deal, and suggestions like this, it does support the tank idea some suggest.

[dougthonus]

Are we allowed to hear more specifics about these trades?

I'm not asking for a source because I take it from your post that you are the source.

The Korver trade was verified to me by sources from both organizations involved, so yeah, I know the Bulls could have had a 1st and a 1 year deal for Korver but opted not do it. The player would have been useful for us too IMO and made under 5 million.

[EastBayFJ]

Doug, very good article sir. I agree with pretty much everything. The only potential exception would be to include something about trading Boozer for lesser players + best possible pick(s) to gain some flexibility with the salary situation. I find that option better than amnesty, especially since it could (should) have happened before this last draft and doesn't require waiting for 2014 for the Bulls to compare Boozer to Eddie Robinson.


It really sucks that the Bulls have already tossed in the towel for the season. Not only in regards to giving up on competing for a championship, but also in regards to actively improving the team for seasons down the road. It appears to be potentially an entirely wasted season.

If Nash was prepared to go to Toronto then Boozer, Deng and #29 for Calderon, Bargnani and #8 would have made sense to me

A forward line of Boozer and Deng with Valunciunas at the rear and backed by Kleiza's shooting and Amir Johnson and Ed Davis would be very solid Re-do Bayless to back in behind Nash and Derozan and an ex ception play for Fields

That's a team they could have run with the next 3 years where the holdovers would be Valunciunas and Derozan and as much cap space as you can poke a stick at

Its also a team that could have been leveraged in Nash back in Canada and a solid playoff team for the next 3 seasons - not a contender but a legitimate and well balanced playoff team

I had espoused this trade back in early June but outside of this I saw no market for Boozer

My argument as to why it made sense for the Bulls was that Bargnani would have got our offense acclimated to a stretch, outside/in type player in readiness for Nikola Mirotic in 2 seasons