Freakonomics: Losing is not a Winning Strategy

[Rerisen]

Bulls might blow it up in 3 years if he leaves or is never the same, but until then they are going to try and build around him. You can't give up on the max contract franchise player you already have until he is proven done.

[Mech Engineer]

If Indy is going to be the new standard from 2014, what is the point of blowing up the Bulls. If healthy and with the addition of a few good pieces like Mirotic, draft picks...the Bulls will be a lot better than Indy. I think the Bulls have to change Boozer(and possibly Deng) for a player who can get some baskets without assistance from Rose. That is all the Bulls need. The Bulls better build for the next super team in 2015 rather than being focused on Miami or Indy.

[Action Paxson]

If you take Derrick out of the equation (which is probable) - and now look at your team. Absolute garbage with salary cap killers like Luol Deng stringing us out for years.

If Rose is 'out of the equation' you aren't winning a title despite him anyway, not while he is hogging 30% of the team's cap space. Just impossible.

Rose's contract expires in 3 years. We're not winning a title in the next years - regardless. That's why it is so imperative to blow it up and try to get a franchise player. When his rookie contract is close to expiring, Rose will be off the books.

We need to blow the team up down to the ashes.

If you were so convinced Rose is toast, I'm sure you could trade him for Pau Gasol, and wash your hands of him. Personally, I think that would be very foolish. He still projects to be a very very good player. You're pretty much the Charlotte Bobcats without Rose.

[blumeany]

There's a difference between giving up on Rose and hedging your bets that he won't be the franchise player you thought he was. One involves getting rid of him, the other involves finding a way to get a more likely franchise player playing next to him.

Proceedingly blindly as if nothing is wrong and still building around Rose? That would be the worst move IMHO.

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[d boy gentleman]

If you take Derrick out of the equation (which is probable) - and now look at your team. Absolute garbage with salary cap killers like Luol Deng stringing us out for years.

If Rose is 'out of the equation' you aren't winning a title despite him anyway, not while he is hogging 30% of the team's cap space. Just impossible.

Rose's contract expires in 3 years. We're not winning a title in the next years - regardless. That's why it is so imperative to blow it up and try to get a franchise player. When his rookie contract is close to expiring, Rose will be off the books.

We need to blow the team up down to the ashes.

And become a perennial lottery team for 5-10 years...

[Rerisen]

There's a difference between giving up on Rose and hedging your bets that he won't be the franchise player you thought he was. One involves getting rid of him, the other involves finding a way to get a more likely franchise player playing next to him.

If you want another franchise player at all costs, the most sure method is trade all non D-Rose talent, or even Derrick himself, in any package that will net that proven superstar player. As well as including Mirotic, and the Charlotte pick.

Essentially be willing to trade your whole team or however much is necessary for a new franchise player. Is Melo one? Is Aldridge one? Is Kevin Love one?

But regardless who you think is one, that would be a *far* better avenue to try instead of dumping all the talent off the team just to have a maybe 1 in 10 shot, with 10 other tanking teams at some more lottery balls.

And heck even if you win that lottery, none of the players there are as proven as existing superstars. So yet another layer of risk. They might very well be, or they could be Darius Miles, Michael Beasley, and Tyrus Thomas. Or they could just be very good players, All-Star capable even, like a John Wall, but not guys that will carry your franchise to titles on their back, like LeBron or Duncan.

[kingkirk]

Bulls might blow it up in 3 years if he leaves or is never the same, but until then they are going to try and build around him. You can't give up on the max contract franchise player you already have until he is proven done.

It's a shame you even need to highlight this .

What would be this teams reputation around the league if we blew it all up and gave up on Rose being the leader if this team?

I'm sure that would go over well with players and their agents.

[Blackstone63]

Losing may not be a good strategy, but it's often the *only* strategy for small-market teams who can't compete for big-name free agents.

Big-market teams like Chicago don't need to tank. It's pathetic.

[Just_Bullz]

if we were being real we'd recognize that the heat have a limited shelf life

It would be fascinating to see how people's perception about the Bulls and team build would get blown up if Indy were to beat Miami this year.

Would we suddenly stop needing a second superstar, while people got busy about the new paradigm, building a team that could 'out Indy, Indy' via spread out talent?

That's a big IF though.

[DJhitek]

if we were being real we'd recognize that the heat have a limited shelf life

It would be fascinating to see how people's perception about the Bulls and team build would get blown up if Indy were to beat Miami this year.

Would we suddenly stop needing a second superstar, while people got busy about the new paradigm, building a team that could 'out Indy, Indy' via spread out talent?

The talent isn't the question, actually it never was. The question is health, and banking on injury prone players to stay healthy is at this point is wishful thinking.

All I want is financial flexibility and for the Bulls to stop overpaying above-average players.

[SpinninHouse]

Bulls might blow it up in 3 years if he leaves or is never the same, but until then they are going to try and build around him. You can't give up on the max contract franchise player you already have until he is proven done.

It's a shame you even need to highlight this .

What would be this teams reputation around the league if we blew it all up and gave up on Rose being the leader if this team?

I'm sure that would go over well with players and their agents.

First off, after playing 50 games in 3 years - no agent or player would blame us for moving on from Rose. To suggest that is ridiculous. Injuries have destroyed many players careers ( Arenas, Oden, Roy, etc) and eventually their teams moved on. They were left with no choice. Derrick's body clearly cannot withstand playing in the NBA. It's the reality of the situation. He cannot stay healthy. One year or maybe twos could be chalked up to bad luck. But to not think something is wrong after three failed seasons? We cannot keep our heads in the sand.

Our entire team is built around a player who is physically unable to perform. We need to move on.

[kingkirk]

First off, after playing 50 games in 3 years - no agent or player would blame us for moving on from Rose. To suggest that is ridiculous. Injuries have destroyed many players careers ( Arenas, Oden, Roy, etc) and eventually their teams moved on. They were left with no choice. Derrick's body clearly cannot withstand playing in the NBA. It's the reality of the situation. He cannot stay healthy. One year or maybe twos could be chalked up to bad luck. But to not think something is wrong after three failed seasons? We cannot keep our heads in the sand.

Our entire team is built around a player who is physically unable to perform. We need to move on.

Oden ad Roy has issues coming into the league, Rose didn't.

Its not like he ruptured the same ACL again. Its a completely separate injury.

Giving up on him will only piss him off and will burn the reputation of this management around the league.

You're not considering the reality of the interpersonal aspects and the deteriments it may have.

Giving up on Rose and kicking him whilst he is down would be a PR nightmare.

[Payt10]

Trading for a star player is not really a feasible option. Your best bet would be to do it this year while the Charlotte pick is still available and your team is not very good at basketball, but #1- for who? and #2- for what?

Next year, Taj and Noah will be 29, Deng is either gone or re-signed, which means he can't be traded. This isn't exactly the world's most appealing roster to entice GM's to hand you over their best player for your aging veterans and a Jimmy Butler.

The draft is a better option to acquiring a 2nd star. The risk is the same, but the reward is greater. The Bulls need multiple lottery picks in this draft. I want as many lottery picks as possible. Decrease your odds of picking a bust, and let the front office do what they do best.

[Bluewaterheaven]

I don't know if anyone has said this yet, but, at least to me, in certain situations for teams that are already good, but have been plagued by injury it seems tanking is not a horrible idea. This up coming draft is a crap-shoot, yes it is hyped, but we really have no idea how it will turn out. That being said, I trust this front office when it comes to the draft, and if we have two lotto picks, the way this team drafts that is two potential all-stars.

There is no doubt in my mind, we will be back to being a top 5 team in the NBA next year (unless, god forbid, Rose is hurt again) if the team stays constructed as it currently is! But, we have the potential to be better then that if we tank. We most likely will get the Charlotte pick, unless they get lucky and move into the top 3, or they start trying to tank themselves (It actually looks like they are trying to make the playoffs in the weak east, but still are not good enough, its just they are not bad enough to make the bottom 10 either.) And to cap things off, we will have Mirotic, plus of we amnesty Boozer and do not resign Deng, the Bulls will have room for a big time free agent. I am not sure who that is, but we will have the room . At this point, I think even Noah is on the table, for high picks or young players. I just don't think we will trade him.

The point is, even if we were to lose two of Deng, Boozer, Noah, or Taj, we would still come out looking quite strong, and extremely flexable, which is very important in this modern CBA era. The Heat are not going to be around like this for too much longer, whether they lose Lebron or Bosh or both, or they just start to age. We have seen what spending copious amounts of money does too in this modern CBA, just look at the Nets and Knicks! During this CBA era, the types of teams that will succeed are the ones who can draft amazingly well, and the teams that are really flexible. We can be both!

Teams like the Pacers are the future for as long as this CBA exists. The Heat, as good as they are, are looking to be a once in a generation pairing, that only worked because of Lebron growing up and actually becoming a leader. If that had not happened, if he had kept that Dwight Howard mentality, the Heat would have lost against OKC in the 2012 finals, or Boston or maybe even Indy in the ECF and ECSF respectively. In 2013, they would have probably been destroyed by Indiana in the ECF, or if they had made it to the Finals, swept by the Spurs. But this didn't happen, Lebron grew up, put most of his Ego aside, and imposed his will on that team, especially on Wade and Bosh. There is no question whose team that is now, when there used to be.

The point I am trying to make with the Heat, is that like all of the other Big Three type "Dynasties" that have been tried in the last 10 years, they are the only one to win, or even be remotely successful. The Nets, Knicks, and Lakers have all tried to emulate what the Heat did, and failed. It takes a mature Lebron type player to do it.

So In the new CBA, teams need to grow from within. They need to draft well, and the Bulls specialize in this. The Bulls are going no where this year. Why not maximize our future. We should take the risk. Even if it does not pan out, we will still be a strong team, and possibly a title contender if Mirotic works out and reaches his potential, and the Heat fall apart.

[Bluewaterheaven]

Trading for a star player is not really a feasible option. Your best bet would be to do it this year while the Charlotte pick is still available and your team is not very good at basketball, but #1- for who? and #2- for what?

Next year, Taj and Noah will be 29, Deng is either gone or re-signed, which means he can't be traded. This isn't exactly the world's most appealing roster to entice GM's to hand you over their best player for your aging veterans and a Jimmy Butler.

The draft is a better option to acquiring a 2nd star. The risk is the same, but the reward is greater. The Bulls need multiple lottery picks in this draft. I want as many lottery picks as possible. Decrease your odds of picking a bust, and let the front office do what they do best.

I think you said it better then me, and Much more concise!!!!

I completely agree though, there is clearly a big risk in tanking, but this year especially the risk-reward for the Bulls is very small. We cannot contend this year, and this is a great draft. We are going to lose players, whether it is Deng or Boozer. We need young talent to fill the holes, and this draft has GOOD young talent. They might not live up to the potential, but there is HUGE potential!.