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Dez wrote:F*** winning a championship as long as we have fun!
I'd rather take a punt on Zion's health than re-sign Coby for what he's going to want. Zion was in excellent shape and then the Pelicans shut him down for tanking purposes.
MGB8 wrote:Hornets Lineup last night was Miles Bridges, Mark Williams (solid, but they tried to trade him), Seth Curry (career journeyman, great shooter), Okogie (young journeyman, hasn’t been able to stick), and 2nd round rookie KJ Simpson at point, who is averaging 8 ppg and 3 apg o. 36% shooting. Salaun and Nurkic were the only other notable players who got in.
Point being, it is great that the team is looking better and Coby is putting up big numbers. Fortunately, we have next year to see if that translates into something beyond a bump from end-of-season-garbage-time. I think it may - he is definitely improved in many ways - but I don’t think there is a big chance that he is a season long efficient 26/4/4 guy.
I think his current annual stats (which include the current elevated play) are likely an accurate reflection of where Coby is at. And that is a good player… but Jordan Poole, Cam Thomas, Norm Powell, McCullom, DeRozan, Miles Bridges, John Collins (a F, I know), Tyler Herro are all at (or a bit above) that same ballpark. Ingram and RJ Barrett too, with more on the boards and assists… Quickley with way more assists.
And not far behind are a bunch of other guys who if they kept up pace laying 10-20% more minutes would be right there with Coby, too, like Colin Sexton
rosenthall wrote:MGB8 wrote:Hornets Lineup last night was Miles Bridges, Mark Williams (solid, but they tried to trade him), Seth Curry (career journeyman, great shooter), Okogie (young journeyman, hasn’t been able to stick), and 2nd round rookie KJ Simpson at point, who is averaging 8 ppg and 3 apg o. 36% shooting. Salaun and Nurkic were the only other notable players who got in.
Point being, it is great that the team is looking better and Coby is putting up big numbers. Fortunately, we have next year to see if that translates into something beyond a bump from end-of-season-garbage-time. I think it may - he is definitely improved in many ways - but I don’t think there is a big chance that he is a season long efficient 26/4/4 guy.
I think his current annual stats (which include the current elevated play) are likely an accurate reflection of where Coby is at. And that is a good player… but Jordan Poole, Cam Thomas, Norm Powell, McCullom, DeRozan, Miles Bridges, John Collins (a F, I know), Tyler Herro are all at (or a bit above) that same ballpark. Ingram and RJ Barrett too, with more on the boards and assists… Quickley with way more assists.
And not far behind are a bunch of other guys who if they kept up pace laying 10-20% more minutes would be right there with Coby, too, like Colin Sexton
Good take and I agree.
For contract negotiations, I'd use his annual averages as the projection and not his current hot streak.
What's tricky with Coby (and Giddey) is they've played themselves into a tier of guys who are both unusually good but really easy to overpay.
So despite the fact that they're really good, it's extremely easy to hamper your team's ability to keep improving if you pay them based on their counting stats. What makes these types of guys worth it is really subtle, IMO. What's troublesome with this category of player is that they're often good enough at everything to play their game on a mediocre team and gobble up box-score events, but nothing about their game is elite enough to do that in the playoffs.
These guys are usually a 6 or 7 across a lot of different categories, but really good teams need to be at least an 8 or above, so having them eat up your cap puts a ceiling on what you can do with the team. I think RJ Barrett is a good example of this.
In Coby's case, I do think his shooting translates to winning teams, and he can probably be a 2nd option with the right star, but it's iffy to me if he provides value at more than $30 million / year. If you pay him much more than that you have the Zach problem all over again.
Onibuh wrote:why would we trade a 25 year old player we need on the roster? If think its clear they won't tank, I don't think you can trade him for a Top15 player and I wouldn't gamble on guys with issues that get paid or will get paid - like Coby.
sco wrote:rosenthall wrote:MGB8 wrote:Hornets Lineup last night was Miles Bridges, Mark Williams (solid, but they tried to trade him), Seth Curry (career journeyman, great shooter), Okogie (young journeyman, hasn’t been able to stick), and 2nd round rookie KJ Simpson at point, who is averaging 8 ppg and 3 apg o. 36% shooting. Salaun and Nurkic were the only other notable players who got in.
Point being, it is great that the team is looking better and Coby is putting up big numbers. Fortunately, we have next year to see if that translates into something beyond a bump from end-of-season-garbage-time. I think it may - he is definitely improved in many ways - but I don’t think there is a big chance that he is a season long efficient 26/4/4 guy.
I think his current annual stats (which include the current elevated play) are likely an accurate reflection of where Coby is at. And that is a good player… but Jordan Poole, Cam Thomas, Norm Powell, McCullom, DeRozan, Miles Bridges, John Collins (a F, I know), Tyler Herro are all at (or a bit above) that same ballpark. Ingram and RJ Barrett too, with more on the boards and assists… Quickley with way more assists.
And not far behind are a bunch of other guys who if they kept up pace laying 10-20% more minutes would be right there with Coby, too, like Colin Sexton
Good take and I agree.
For contract negotiations, I'd use his annual averages as the projection and not his current hot streak.
What's tricky with Coby (and Giddey) is they've played themselves into a tier of guys who are both unusually good but really easy to overpay.
So despite the fact that they're really good, it's extremely easy to hamper your team's ability to keep improving if you pay them based on their counting stats. What makes these types of guys worth it is really subtle, IMO. What's troublesome with this category of player is that they're often good enough at everything to play their game on a mediocre team and gobble up box-score events, but nothing about their game is elite enough to do that in the playoffs.
These guys are usually a 6 or 7 across a lot of different categories, but really good teams need to be at least an 8 or above, so having them eat up your cap puts a ceiling on what you can do with the team. I think RJ Barrett is a good example of this.
In Coby's case, I do think his shooting translates to winning teams, and he can probably be a 2nd option with the right star, but it's iffy to me if he provides value at more than $30 million / year. If you pay him much more than that you have the Zach problem all over again.
I think this is good point. It is hard to say that Coby has cracked that top tier of SG's that includes Ant, Booker and Mitchell (may Harden depending on what you call him). And the 2nd tier of guys is a pretty long list with guys like Zach, Herro, McCollum, Powell, Reaves, Green, Bane, Poole, Simons. Then you have guys who have taken off since the ASB like Grimes, Sharpe and Castle. Are all of those guys gonna get MAX deals?
Jcool0 wrote:GoBlue72391 wrote:NecessaryEvil wrote:Ay, you guys sure you don't wanna pay Coby?? cuz holy s**t lol
At the risk of being labeled a hater, we've seen him go on extended stretches of high level play many times over his career. Up to this point he's always eventually reverted to the mean. Maybe this time is different, but maybe it's not.
If he can play at this level for an entire season then the discussions about maxing him will have merit. If not, you run the risk of potentially crippling the franchise financially for a streaky player. You should try to avoid maxing non-max players whenever possible. We gave Zach a max and almost immediately regretted and spent years trying to move him. Are we trying to get back to that situation?
Coby's a very good player, but a stretch of high level play in the dog days of the season against a lot of tanking teams isn't enough to justify maxing him.
Imagine we give Coby the bag and it turns out it was just another one of his hot stretches. Suddenly we're looking at Coby, Pat, and Giddey (another guy who's been playing great as of late but has question marks on his own) taking up the majority of our cap.
You have to take emotion out of it and look at it logically. Not just "what have you done for me lately" but the whole picture and projecting into the future. I feel like a lot of this discussion is emotionally charged.
I dont even know if he plays like this you want to max him. We have seen Zach play at this level and it got us fighting for the play in. Maybe Coby's style is more conducive to a 40+ win team. IDK. I know someone with his current stats used get maxed no matter what, but does the 2nd apron change that? A lot of maybes and its in both the team and Coby interest to play his contract out. So at lest nothing has to happen this summer.
sco wrote:Jcool0 wrote:GoBlue72391 wrote:At the risk of being labeled a hater, we've seen him go on extended stretches of high level play many times over his career. Up to this point he's always eventually reverted to the mean. Maybe this time is different, but maybe it's not.
If he can play at this level for an entire season then the discussions about maxing him will have merit. If not, you run the risk of potentially crippling the franchise financially for a streaky player. You should try to avoid maxing non-max players whenever possible. We gave Zach a max and almost immediately regretted and spent years trying to move him. Are we trying to get back to that situation?
Coby's a very good player, but a stretch of high level play in the dog days of the season against a lot of tanking teams isn't enough to justify maxing him.
Imagine we give Coby the bag and it turns out it was just another one of his hot stretches. Suddenly we're looking at Coby, Pat, and Giddey (another guy who's been playing great as of late but has question marks on his own) taking up the majority of our cap.
You have to take emotion out of it and look at it logically. Not just "what have you done for me lately" but the whole picture and projecting into the future. I feel like a lot of this discussion is emotionally charged.
I dont even know if he plays like this you want to max him. We have seen Zach play at this level and it got us fighting for the play in. Maybe Coby's style is more conducive to a 40+ win team. IDK. I know someone with his current stats used get maxed no matter what, but does the 2nd apron change that? A lot of maybes and its in both the team and Coby interest to play his contract out. So at lest nothing has to happen this summer.
So here's what I was thinking about. Trading Zach seemed to immediately the aggressiveness and impact of both Coby and Giddey. IMO, this season Zach has been playing his most unselfish basketball I can remember. My question is why did it take that huge event to bring out that behavior in those 2 guys. The surface argument is that somebody had to take those shots and playmake more because wasn't there, and it just sorta worked out. But when I look at both Coby and Giddey, they both seemed to be aggressive from the perspective of not shying away from shots and playmaking. Was there something about Zach that caused them to be deferential? I just don't see that about Zach. My point is why couldn't Billy get those two to step up before the trade? If we added another star to the team, like Zion, should we expect a similar regression?
Jcool0 wrote:sco wrote:Jcool0 wrote:
I dont even know if he plays like this you want to max him. We have seen Zach play at this level and it got us fighting for the play in. Maybe Coby's style is more conducive to a 40+ win team. IDK. I know someone with his current stats used get maxed no matter what, but does the 2nd apron change that? A lot of maybes and its in both the team and Coby interest to play his contract out. So at lest nothing has to happen this summer.
So here's what I was thinking about. Trading Zach seemed to immediately the aggressiveness and impact of both Coby and Giddey. IMO, this season Zach has been playing his most unselfish basketball I can remember. My question is why did it take that huge event to bring out that behavior in those 2 guys. The surface argument is that somebody had to take those shots and playmake more because wasn't there, and it just sorta worked out. But when I look at both Coby and Giddey, they both seemed to be aggressive from the perspective of not shying away from shots and playmaking. Was there something about Zach that caused them to be deferential? I just don't see that about Zach. My point is why couldn't Billy get those two to step up before the trade? If we added another star to the team, like Zion, should we expect a similar regression?
Didn't Coby see himself as the little brother to Zach and DeMar? Could be as simple as wanting to prove now he can be the guy. Could also be someone had to take those shots once Zach left. Probably similar with Giddey i'm sure he saw this as Zacks team and kind of deferred to him. GIddey was getting rebounds and assists all year its the scoring thats gone up since the break.
WindyCityBorn wrote:Dez wrote:F*** winning a championship as long as we have fun!
I'd rather take a punt on Zion's health than re-sign Coby for what he's going to want. Zion was in excellent shape and then the Pelicans shut him down for tanking purposes.
He played 30 games. He’s cooked. Again. I doubt he will ever stay healthy and he’s not a superstar. Not worth the risk.
Ballerkingn23 wrote:Zion ate and sexed his way out the league. He will never stay healthy esp as he gets older. And will unfortunately go down as this generations Shawn Kemp, not Charles Barkely
kodo wrote:sco wrote:rosenthall wrote:
Good take and I agree.
For contract negotiations, I'd use his annual averages as the projection and not his current hot streak.
What's tricky with Coby (and Giddey) is they've played themselves into a tier of guys who are both unusually good but really easy to overpay.
So despite the fact that they're really good, it's extremely easy to hamper your team's ability to keep improving if you pay them based on their counting stats. What makes these types of guys worth it is really subtle, IMO. What's troublesome with this category of player is that they're often good enough at everything to play their game on a mediocre team and gobble up box-score events, but nothing about their game is elite enough to do that in the playoffs.
These guys are usually a 6 or 7 across a lot of different categories, but really good teams need to be at least an 8 or above, so having them eat up your cap puts a ceiling on what you can do with the team. I think RJ Barrett is a good example of this.
In Coby's case, I do think his shooting translates to winning teams, and he can probably be a 2nd option with the right star, but it's iffy to me if he provides value at more than $30 million / year. If you pay him much more than that you have the Zach problem all over again.
I think this is good point. It is hard to say that Coby has cracked that top tier of SG's that includes Ant, Booker and Mitchell (may Harden depending on what you call him). And the 2nd tier of guys is a pretty long list with guys like Zach, Herro, McCollum, Powell, Reaves, Green, Bane, Poole, Simons. Then you have guys who have taken off since the ASB like Grimes, Sharpe and Castle. Are all of those guys gonna get MAX deals?
Giddey's play lately has been translating to us winning while he's on court. We have a 121 offensive rating while he's playing which would tie us for best offense in the league with the Cavs and better than Boston, if Giddey played 48. And I hope the damn defense myth is dead, we're a net +10 rating while he's playing which would be 2nd best in the league behind OKC and ahead of Boston. The guy was a starter on the 4th best D in the league for a full season and a 57 win team. His resume far exceeds anything any other Bull has done since Rose. Giddey has proven he can win 57 games, no other Bull has. I'm more comfortable "overpaying" Giddey.
Coby is a lot more debatable on how he impacts the team.
+/- +3.0 (behind Giddey, Huerter, Lonzo, and Vucevic)
Offensive Rating 115 (9th, below Vuc, Tre, THT)
Net Rating +5 (good but not close to Giddey or Lonzo at +10 to +12, on par with Vucevic)
FWIW since it's a small sample size, in games where Coby played without Giddey we were overall a -36.
In games where Giddey played without White, we were a +4.
Other than exactly how they get buckets (Zach shoots more long range, Coby draws fouls more lately) I don't think there's much difference between White & Lavine. But I never thought Lavine (or Demar) were bad players and you need a volume PPG guy on a team with no superstar. But winning impact, there's nothing to suggest Coby is better than Lavine on that. It's mainly been the new additions (Giddey, Huerter, Collins, Tre, Lonzo etc)
boozapalooza wrote:Daxel wrote:Coby has an all time high trade value for him.
He has proven many times how streaky he is and always comes back to earth.
Regardless of that, if he finishes the season playing like that then its time to trade him or at least test the market, you never know what return value you'll get until you offer something.
Agreed. He could be a major trade piece for a big time player like Ja, Zion, Sabonis (to a lesser extent), other stars who may hit the market. Its crazy to think that is possible, but with how well hes playing, on an expiring 12 million salary next year, thats got some real value these days.
The true test will be, can he keep up this level of play in the playoffs….. (same with Giddey). I honestly think both of them can. It doesnt mean were gonna win, but it will be a good measuring stick.
GoBlue72391 wrote:NecessaryEvil wrote:Ay, you guys sure you don't wanna pay Coby?? cuz holy s**t lol
At the risk of being labeled a hater, we've seen him go on extended stretches of high level play many times over his career. Up to this point he's always eventually reverted to the mean. Maybe this time is different, but maybe it's not.
If he can play at this level for an entire season then the discussions about maxing him will have merit. If not, you run the risk of potentially crippling the franchise financially for a streaky player. You should try to avoid maxing non-max players whenever possible. We gave Zach a max and almost immediately regretted and spent years trying to move him. Are we trying to get back to that situation?
Coby's a very good player, but a stretch of high level play in the dog days of the season against a lot of tanking teams isn't enough to justify maxing him.
Imagine we give Coby the bag and it turns out it was just another one of his hot stretches. Suddenly we're looking at Coby, Pat, and Giddey (another guy who's been playing great as of late but has question marks on his own) taking up the majority of our cap.
You have to take emotion out of it and look at it logically. Not just "what have you done for me lately" but the whole picture and projecting into the future. I feel like a lot of this discussion is emotionally charged.
Jcool0 wrote:Ballerkingn23 wrote:Zion ate and sexed his way out the league. He will never stay healthy esp as he gets older. And will unfortunately go down as this generations Shawn Kemp, not Charles Barkely
Shawn Kemp had pretty good prime years, for about 500 starts he was 18.7/10.4/2.2 with 1.4 steals and 1.5 blocks. Made 3 All NBA teams, 6 All Star teams & top 11 in MVP voting 4x. When he got out of shape he was in his 30s.
rosenthall wrote:So after watching Coby tonight........as good as he's been playing, he still struggles against good defenses and good defenders. OKC bottled him up completely, and he struggled tonight against Davion Mitchell. Even when he was scoring he never looked comfortable. If we make the playoffs I bet he struggles mightily against the Cavs.
If this was old Coby he would have been garbage tonight. Probably 10 points on 14 shots. He was able to tread water today, but it still feels like he struggles to find air in the tightest circumstances. It's one thing that still separates him from great scorers, including Zach.
SpongeWorthy wrote:rosenthall wrote:So after watching Coby tonight........as good as he's been playing, he still struggles against good defenses and good defenders. OKC bottled him up completely, and he struggled tonight against Davion Mitchell. Even when he was scoring he never looked comfortable. If we make the playoffs I bet he struggles mightily against the Cavs.
If this was old Coby he would have been garbage tonight. Probably 10 points on 14 shots. He was able to tread water today, but it still feels like he struggles to find air in the tightest circumstances. It's one thing that still separates him from great scorers, including Zach.
OKC is an elite defense and mitchell could be an elite defender one day but it's a valid point.
one thing i'll say is coby was big in the 4th and got to the line even when his shot was struggling PLUS the ball was still moving (33 team assists) against a pretty good defense that was actually trying. zach and demar had bad shooting nights and still could get to the line but the ball didn't move like this typically.