Lauri Markkanen Discussion Thread

[Indomitable]

So you bumped 2 Lauri threads to say the same thing based on a 7 game sample size?

You seem surprised.

[PaKii94]

So you bumped 2 Lauri threads to say the same thing based on a 7 game sample size?

Actually 3. I bumped them because there were different points of discussion at different points in time which gives a good snapshot. But it's also good to revisit hot takes.

-One was about his overall progression
-One was a discussion about healthy vs injured Lauri
-One was about his shooting ability

Are you annoyed that I seem to know what I am talking about?

[dougthonus]

I think it's time we revisit this discussion Doug. A mostly healthy Lauri this season: (per36 mins) 23p/9r on 48/40, 64%TS, 23%USG

This is again, right in line with his "healthy" numbers from last year: 21p/7.3r on 50/41, 64%TS, 22%USG

The difference being he has yet again improved. His shot is imo overall more consistent than last years (on higher volume) and he's been more aggressive leading to more free throws. Rebounds are up a bit because he's now playing a drop defense instead of a blitzing on the perimeter defense. Unfortunately his usage is overall not substantially increased....

Lauri's off to a great start and playing at what I perceived his ceiling to be.

For his threes:
100% of his threes are catch and shoot
96% open (~28%) or wide open (~68%)

Overall:
76% of shots are catch and shoot
10% of his shots he dribbled three or more times on

The reason his usage isn't ramped up is because Lauri is playing within himself. He's not pressing the issue much. He's not attacking when he has the ball. He's mostly just taking open looks after another player generates all the defensive attention. The Bulls should get Lauri as many looks like that as possible, but it's not easy to get a three point shooter a wide open catch and shoot three point attempt and the Bulls likely can't ramp up that shot any more.

He has definitely gotten inside a bit more this year, and is also moving around the perimeter quite a bit more this year to make himself available for more shots. He's finishing much better inside when the Bulls find him on a pass with a mismatch, and he's hitting a much, much better percentage of his open looks from distance.

At his current ability level I think he's probably a ~18M player. He's still weak defensively and lacks versatility on top of that, and he still doesn't initiate offense. That said while he may require other people to set up his looks, he's finishing with great efficiency and if he continues will start to create gravity and defensive attention even without the all which will open up the court for others (and is quite valuable).

All in all, it's a great start for Lauri. This is more or less what I picture Lauri's best case scenario being (other than doing the same thing at just slightly more efficient rates). I'm not sure he can grow the overall package more, but even if not, he's a very good player doing what he is now. I'm also not necessarily confident he will continue to play as well as he has to date, but we'll give it some time and see what happens.

[ImSlower]

Paki, can you at least change this thread title to "Lauri wanted out in 2020, not sure 2021" or something?

[kodo]

His confidence & assertiveness on offense is 180 from last season. Last season if he got the ball on the perimeter he would consider if he would shoot or not, and if the defense was there he would just move the ball along. The ball eventually just moved everywhere unless the other team screwed up, and assuming they didn't screw up it was Lavine hero-ball time. This was probably 80% of our possessions.

This season, there are more possessions like this one where Lauri doesn't even think about anything, as soon as he gets the ball he's already attacking the rim.



That's really what he always needed, to not be a tall Kyle Korver. I don't think it fully utilizes him, and I don't think he's such a pure shooter that you would purposefully only have him park at the 3. Ever since we got Lauri he was a combination of 3P and rim scoring. If we wanted just a guy who hangs out by the 3 point line all game, there are better players at that (like Bertrans). But Bertrans will only shoot 2% of his shots at the rim, he effectively gets you nothing attacking the paint.

The other thing was that Fred & Boylen didn't really have him shooting corner 3s, which was a really odd way to use a big man shooter. There are bigs who only shoot corner 3s. But Lauri only shot 11%-14% of his 3s in the corner under the old coaches. He's increased that up quite a bit this year to 22% and it's helped tremendously. Turns out he's actually pretty good at them now that he's actually placed there, he's shooting 60%+.

[Dez]

So you bumped 2 Lauri threads to say the same thing based on a 7 game sample size?

Actually 3. I bumped them because there were different points of discussion at different points in time which gives a good snapshot. But it's also good to revisit hot takes.

-One was about his overall progression
-One was a discussion about healthy vs injured Lauri
-One was about his shooting ability

Are you annoyed that I seem to know what I am talking about?

We don't know whether or not you know what you're talking about because you're using a 7 game sample size, maybe come back after the halfway point at the earliest.

[DanChee33]

So you bumped 2 Lauri threads to say the same thing based on a 7 game sample size?

Don't be unfair dude! Maybe he is wrong but he made his homework with that deep and informative data research (I found it even enjoyable too). And of course he could point out if he think he was right.

[Dez]

So you bumped 2 Lauri threads to say the same thing based on a 7 game sample size?

Don't be unfair dude! Maybe he is wrong but he made his homework with that deep and informative data research (I found it even enjoyable too). And of course he could point out if he think he was right.

Again he might be right but you can't be right or wrong when you use a 7 game sample size.

[DroseReturnChi]

At his current ability level I think he's probably a ~18M player. He's still weak defensively and lacks versatility on top of that, and he still doesn't initiate offense. That said while he may require other people to set up his looks, he's finishing with great efficiency and if he continues will start to create gravity and defensive attention even without the all which will open up the court for others (and is quite valuable).

65% TS with 23/9 per 36 is 18mil? 4 finger bertrans got 80mil.
I dont expect him to maintain that efficiency but if he produces better numbers than yr 2 with that above abg defense, he is commanding a max. AK lost tens of millions bc he decided to bet against Dirk successor.

[dougthonus]

65% TS with 23/9 per 36 is 18mil? 4 finger bertrans got 80mil.
I dont expect him to maintain that efficiency but if he produces better numbers than yr 2 with that above abg defense, he is commanding a max. AK lost tens of millions bc he decided to bet against Dirk successor.

I said what he's worth, not what he will get. I wouldn't want Bertrans on his deal either.

I think when we didn't come to an extension agreement with Lauri that it became highly likely he leaves the roster this off-season, and I would likely trade him this trade deadline.

[sco]

It is easy to get excited about Lauri's performance so far, BUT he has already been injured once, and a big knock against keeping a guy like Lauri is his perceived lack of durability. Even if his stats suggest a $20M deal per year, his durability would still push me to trading him for whatever we can get at the deadline unless he plays healthy until then.

[ChettheJet]

If you don't understand that it's a different world including for the Bulls from a year ago, you need help

[ATRAIN53]

amazing how much harder guys play in a contract year, isn't it?

think about it, this will be his biggest possible payday. 23, lottery pick, still not in prime.
Someone will cut him a 4 year deal, then he'll be 27 and will have to have proven it to earn another big deal.

but this payday is coming, he knows it.

Guys who play HARD after they sign a deal and improve their numbers that are rarer.
there's on on our roster wearing #8 I hope we keep around.

[Stratmaster]

So you bumped 2 Lauri threads to say the same thing based on a 7 game sample size?

You seem surprised.

Imma gonna have to set aside several hours to go back and find all the Lavine threads and comments about Lavine holding back Lauri.

[Tetlak]

Honestly, who cares if Lauri is shooting well?

Why would a team/franchise that is trying to reshape themselves pay big money for a guy who does almost nothing outside of shooting standstill, open 3s? A guy who is a straight up liability in other facets of the game, who doesn't fit either the 4 or 5 in today's game?

I'm glad he's finally doing fine on the court, but does it really matter? Guys with Lauri's game are not building blocks.

[gobullschi]

Honestly, who cares if Lauri is shooting well?

Why would a team/franchise that is trying to reshape themselves pay big money for a guy who does almost nothing outside of shooting standstill, open 3s? A guy who is a straight up liability in other facets of the game, who doesn't fit either the 4 or 5 in today's game?

I'm glad he's finally doing fine on the court, but does it really matter? Guys with Lauri's game are not building blocks.

You can’t let him go for nothing and if you trade him, it needs to be for someone who has a similar upside.

[ZOMG]

It is easy to get excited about Lauri's performance so far, BUT he has already been injured once, and a big knock against keeping a guy like Lauri is his perceived lack of durability. Even if his stats suggest a $20M deal per year, his durability would still push me to trading him for whatever we can get at the deadline unless he plays healthy until then.

Lauri's had his red flags in the past, but you can't hold it against him that Wendell-san kicked him.

[coldfish]

Lauri has played well this year. The big difference I see is that he is driving. In the past, he fell in love with the jumper too much and would sometimes force them. This year he is driving on hard closeouts and its getting him high percentage looks. Beyond that, his 3p% is better because he is taking better shots.

His usage rate is virtually the same as his career average (23.3 this year vs 22.7 career). He isn't really generating more assists or rebounds or anything. I would say that his help defense is marginally better . . . but that's because it was nonexistant in the past.

Its only 7 games though. For a guy who has struggled with consistency and health, I'm still holding my breath.

[madvillian]

Lauri has played well this year. The big difference I see is that he is driving. In the past, he fell in love with the jumper too much and would sometimes force them. This year he is driving on hard closeouts and its getting him high percentage looks. Beyond that, his 3p% is better because he is taking better shots.

His usage rate is virtually the same as his career average (23.3 this year vs 22.7 career). He isn't really generating more assists or rebounds or anything. I would say that his help defense is marginally better . . . but that's because it was nonexistant in the past.

Its only 7 games though. For a guy who has struggled with consistency and health, I'm still holding my breath.

He might be driving more but his shot chart says he's shooting more threes than ever. 56.2% of his shots have been from deep and over 1/3 of those (22% overall) have been corner threes. He's shooting 63% on corner threes. 100% of his threes are assisted. 100%! This is not a guy that can create his own shots from deep. He should thank Zach and Coby for getting him good looks.

What I think people are seeing as "driving more" is just perhaps his increased FT rate. Which is easily the highest of his career. So getting fouled more plus shooting well from deep: sustainable? I don't think so. We shall see.

The people crowning him are cray cray tho. He's had a nice little stretch. He's done this numerous times. His underlying stats say he's mostly just hitting wide open shots. That's good, but it's not a fundamental change in his long term outlook.

[weneeda2guard]

This board gets hilarious sometimes lol

Posters judge lavine and coby harsher for duties they were not even supposed to have, then take it light with benefit of the doubt for lauri when he is mediocre to poor on things he supposed to be doing well as a 7ft 4/5 lol