Lauri:' I can make the comeback'

[FriedRise]

I'm not sure what type of leverage Lauri has here with free agency essentially over. If the length of term is what's important to him, the Bulls should be able to offer him something at a much lower $ amount per year (think Pippen's contract).

[Pax for Prez]

I wondering what the contract would look like for Lari would sign early to get security, maybe 4 yr 64 mil ? average 16 million per season.

Thoughts ??

[ZOMG]

i truly believe he wants to stay and and personally doesn't care about money that much. His agent does, though - it's his job - so he won't just roll over.

The way Lauri lives, I'd be shocked if he hasn't saved up like 98% of what he's made so far.

He's a really young guy raising a family in a foreign country. I wouldn't be surprised if stability was a HUGE deal for him.

[Dez]

2 years 24 million, he's currently not even worth that but it's not a cap killing short-term extension.

[dougthonus]

To a large degree, I think a lot of people are behind the times. Lauri was a 4 back in the days when stretch 4's just started appearing. Nowadays, 4's are actually far more athletic and shooting the 3 is a full expectation. No one in the league wants to start a 4 who can't shoot. Pascal Siakam is a prototypical 4, not Lauri.

As another note, Lauri has never shown the ability to take advantage of smaller players. When shorter players are up on him, he struggles to shoot and can't drive by them. His size at the 4, as a result, is largely neutralized.

IMO, Lauri is a 5 in today's NBA from a size and footspeed standpoint. Unfortunately, Lauri isn't a good help defender, doesn't like to body up big players and isn't a great rebounder. He really doesn't fit here either.

I don't think Lauri has a position in today's NBA. He will have a few months to prove me and a whole bunch of other people wrong. If he can't, I would like to see him moved at the deadline. Based on a lot of what I have read here, its his end goal to go to Dallas and chill. We don't want to lose him for nothing.

He definitely needs to play the 5 if teams go small, but he can probably do that. I'm not quite as grim about your view on Lauri, but I think you're generally on track there. The main problem is not so much the shooting, there are tons of guys with Lauri's level of shooting or worse. The probably is really that teams are going smaller and more athletic with better defensive versatility.

For Lauri to really find a place, I think he needs to do exactly what you said, punish small players whom are on them. He's most likely to do that by shooting over them rather than beating them up in the post though.

[Ugly Duckling]

This is an interesting one that I'm not sure about. I was one of the few ppl on this board high on Markkanen on draft night. He looked good out of the gate, but turned out not to be as much of a perimeter threat as I'd hoped for. He also wasn't as good on defense as I thought he could be. Last season was obviously a huge disappointment and made me almost lose all faith in him. He did have a lingering shoulder injury and maybe he can be more aggressive under this front office. He's young, tall, can shoot and has decent handles for a 7 footer. Someone said 2yrs 24 million, which seems like a fair deal for now, although I doubt he takes it

[Leslie Forman]

To a large degree, I think a lot of people are behind the times. Lauri was a 4 back in the days when stretch 4's just started appearing. Nowadays, 4's are actually far more athletic and shooting the 3 is a full expectation. No one in the league wants to start a 4 who can't shoot. Pascal Siakam is a prototypical 4, not Lauri.

Frankly he wouldn't be any good at the 4 in any era. Even Ryan Anderson really didn't work there - he didn't even start half the games in his career, and he was absolutely atrocious in the playoffs. The Rockets regretted signing him immediately and didn't even have him in the rotation by the end of his second year there. He basically became a 12th man by the time he was 30.

And this is a guy who was better than Lauri. Any time before the 2010s, of course, Lauri would have just been absolutely wrecked by all the more post-oriented 4s of the time. Imagine him going up against the likes of McHale, Barkley, Malone, Kemp. Even combo forwards back then were guys like Larry goddamn Bird, Chambers, McDaniel, Schrempf.

He is simply the deadly combination of soft and slow - not just physically, but in terms of processing the game. He is the antithesis of what Karnisovas wants, judging by the Williams draft pick. If he wants a new contract here, he better come in looking like he was on the Barry Bonds vitamin plan these last eight months.

I assume he's just gonna be the same exact guy he has been for these last four years in America, however.

[sco]

To a large degree, I think a lot of people are behind the times. Lauri was a 4 back in the days when stretch 4's just started appearing. Nowadays, 4's are actually far more athletic and shooting the 3 is a full expectation. No one in the league wants to start a 4 who can't shoot. Pascal Siakam is a prototypical 4, not Lauri.

As another note, Lauri has never shown the ability to take advantage of smaller players. When shorter players are up on him, he struggles to shoot and can't drive by them. His size at the 4, as a result, is largely neutralized.

IMO, Lauri is a 5 in today's NBA from a size and footspeed standpoint. Unfortunately, Lauri isn't a good help defender, doesn't like to body up big players and isn't a great rebounder. He really doesn't fit here either.

I don't think Lauri has a position in today's NBA. He will have a few months to prove me and a whole bunch of other people wrong. If he can't, I would like to see him moved at the deadline. Based on a lot of what I have read here, its his end goal to go to Dallas and chill. We don't want to lose him for nothing.

He definitely needs to play the 5 if teams go small, but he can probably do that. I'm not quite as grim about your view on Lauri, but I think you're generally on track there. The main problem is not so much the shooting, there are tons of guys with Lauri's level of shooting or worse. The probably is really that teams are going smaller and more athletic with better defensive versatility.

For Lauri to really find a place, I think he needs to do exactly what you said, punish small players whom are on them. He's most likely to do that by shooting over them rather than beating them up in the post though.

I think Lauri can be quick enough to be effective on defense at the 4. The combination of injuries and Boylen's system hurt Lauri, IMO. Offensively, I totally agree that he just needs to learn to shoot over little guys, but honestly, he just needs to consistently make open 3's... he had a ton of missed open 3's last season, and while it doesn't need to be his whole game, it is a great foundational piece to open other parts of his game. I'd be fine if he took (and made) a few more open mid-range shots, but being a 3pt making threat is key to Lauri being better on offense. Lauri admitted not moving enough on offense (which from my observation was just him hiding when his shots weren't falling...so same issue).

[sco]

Thought a poll would be useful.

IMO, it comes down to whether you believe last year was an anomaly, or think he has some upside despite 3 years to show us more vs. not wanting to pay for a guy who's game was predicated on becoming and elite shooter - not being more than average.

Discuss.

[dougthonus]

I think Lauri can be quick enough to be effective on defense at the 4. The combination of injuries and Boylen's system hurt Lauri, IMO. Offensively, I totally agree that he just needs to learn to shoot over little guys, but honestly, he just needs to consistently make open 3's... he had a ton of missed open 3's last season, and while it doesn't need to be his whole game, it is a great foundational piece to open other parts of his game. I'd be fine if he took (and made) a few more open mid-range shots, but being a 3pt making threat is key to Lauri being better on offense. Lauri admitted not moving enough on offense (which from my observation was just him hiding when his shots weren't falling...so same issue).

Yeah, Lauri's path has been a bit like Mirotic to me.

Came in thinking he was going to be a great stretch four, but he was really just kind of a decent but not great shooter. His actual strength was attacking close outs rather than shooting threes.

I think Lauri can guard the non stars PFs adequately, the problem is the pick and roll defense and switching.

[Nate3carp]

I don’t think the Bulls should go over $10-12mil on an extension. If Lauri doesn’t want that, no problem, prove what you’re worth and then go get it in free agency and we’ll have the choice of matching it.

[dougthonus]

lauri at his best was never better than niko in any facet (except being tall) and lauri was put in a better position to succeed by management and coaching. i really feel for niko, his career would have been much different had bobby never broken his face. even if the stats don't make it abundantly obvious, the bulls were a better team when niko played. even the pelicans were a MUCH better team when he replaced cousins.

Lauri's best vs Niko's best

At absolute peak, you might be right that Niko's best was better than Lauri's best, but it's more or less a coin flip, and Lauri's best is better than every season of Niko except that one.

Beyond that, Lauri's still not as old as Niko was in his rookie year, so we're comparing Niko's peak with another four years of development playing professional basketball to Lauri where he is now which is an uneven comparison.

On top of that, I don't know why anyone would think Niko had worse coaching. You think Hoiberg/Boylen was this amazing situation for Lauri to succeed in vs Thibodeau? You think the guys around Lauri were going to help him play better vs the guys around Niko? Only in that last season here was Niko in a bad spot, and that was actually the only time in his career he actually played well.

[fleet]

One of the worst things a team can do is pay a player that hasn’t proven anything yet. The smart teams avoid that, find an alternate route.

[cjbulls]

Advocating 10-12 is a bit over the top. Might as well not make him an offer so you don’t piss him off. I am down on Lauri almost as much as anyone, but that’s 7th man money. Or MLE money. He put up 19 and 9 at age 22.

Looking at just FA last year, here are the guys closest to that range in average annual value and/or position

Jerami Grant - 20M
Bertans - 16M
Morris - 16M
M. Beasley - 14.9M
Clarkson - 12.88
C. Wood - 13.7
KCP - 13.1
Crowder - 9.7M
Derick Jones Jr - 9.5M

I would say that Lauri’s value in production + age is higher than any of these players.

[sco]

Advocating 10-12 is a bit over the top. Might as well not make him an offer so you don’t piss him off. I am down on Lauri almost as much as anyone, but that’s 7th man money. Or MLE money. He put up 19 and 9 at age 22.

Looking at just FA last year, here are the guys closest to that range in average annual value and/or position

Jerami Grant - 20M
Bertans - 16M
Morris - 16M
M. Beasley - 14.9M
Clarkson - 12.88
C. Wood - 13.7
KCP - 13.1
Crowder - 9.7M
Derick Jones Jr - 9.5M

I would say that Lauri’s value in production + age is higher than any of these players.

I would say that Grant, Bertans, Wood and Crowder all had better years last year than Lauri and I'd be willing to bet, have better careers for the next 3 seasons too.

[cjbulls]

Advocating 10-12 is a bit over the top. Might as well not make him an offer so you don’t piss him off. I am down on Lauri almost as much as anyone, but that’s 7th man money. Or MLE money. He put up 19 and 9 at age 22.

Looking at just FA last year, here are the guys closest to that range in average annual value and/or position

Jerami Grant - 20M
Bertans - 16M
Morris - 16M
M. Beasley - 14.9M
Clarkson - 12.88
C. Wood - 13.7
KCP - 13.1
Crowder - 9.7M
Derick Jones Jr - 9.5M

I would say that Lauri’s value in production + age is higher than any of these players.

I would say that Grant, Bertans, Wood and Crowder all had better years last year than Lauri and I'd be willing to bet, have better careers for the next 3 seasons too.

But last year was a regression most aren’t expecting to continue. We should all agree that the situation changes if last year’s Lauri is the permanent Lauri.

Quick eval of pts, reb, 3pt%. These are the stats Lauri as a pf is measured in, arguably defense should be included here but no good stats exist. It’s enough to say that none of these guys are great PF defenders except for Crowder (Grant is good). Compared against Lauri year 2 (note all ages based on actual FA age)

Grant (26) - 12, 3.5, 38.9%
Bertans (28) - 15.4, 4.5, 42.4%
Wood (25) - 13.1, 6.3, 38.6%
Crowder (30) - 10.5, 5.9, 34.3%

Lauri (24) 18.7, 9.0, 36.1%

This is before getting into the “upside” component that only Wood has. The others largely are what they are, but I guess we can see what Grant does since he thinks he’s capable of more.

[Ccwatercraft]

not really on board with an early extension, but if there is one I prefer its highly discounted, a win win for everyone, I doubt he'll turn into a useless bench contract like Felicio so I won't lose much sleep if an extension is done now.

[ZOMG]

Advocating 10-12 is a bit over the top. Might as well not make him an offer so you don’t piss him off. I am down on Lauri almost as much as anyone, but that’s 7th man money. Or MLE money. He put up 19 and 9 at age 22.

Looking at just FA last year, here are the guys closest to that range in average annual value and/or position

Jerami Grant - 20M
Bertans - 16M
Morris - 16M
M. Beasley - 14.9M
Clarkson - 12.88
C. Wood - 13.7
KCP - 13.1
Crowder - 9.7M
Derick Jones Jr - 9.5M

I would say that Lauri’s value in production + age is higher than any of these players.

I would say that Grant, Bertans, Wood and Crowder all had better years last year than Lauri and I'd be willing to bet, have better careers for the next 3 seasons too.

Grant is 26.
Bertans is 28.
Wood is 25.
Crowder is 30, FFS.

At age 24, Bertans averaged 14/4 per 36 for the Spurs, possibly an ideal team for a guy like him, with GREAT, HOF level coaching.

Lauri won't be 24 until May.

[Shill]

The bottom line is Lauri needs to become elite at *something* to justify being misfit at either the 4 or the 5.

Right now, he’s kind of average at everything: shooting, post play, passing, rebounding.

[fleet]

not really on board with an early extension, but if there is one I prefer its highly discounted, a win win for everyone, I doubt he'll turn into a useless bench contract like Felicio so I won't lose much sleep if an extension is done now.

Rather would wait than to try and get a discount. If we pay more later, at least it would be an informed decision. Those White Sox tactics would be bad policy for the Bulls. Even a slightly discounted deal is hard to move if the player doesn’t pan out. If I am paying just for offense, Show me some first. Show me some consistency, sustained health. If Lauri had a defensive side to his game, an earlier discounted deal might be worth thinking about if you wanted to roll the dice on his offense etc. He’s got to prove more first in my book. I voted no deal.