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Lauri:' I can make the comeback'

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Lauri extension?

Don't want to see one happen - let him show me more first
40
33%
4 years/$40M-$50M
22
18%
4 year/$50M-$65M
28
23%
4 years/$65M-$80M
22
18%
4 years/$80M+
6
5%
Other (explain)
4
3%
 
Total votes: 122

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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#281 » by cjbulls » Wed Dec 2, 2020 11:17 pm

dougthonus wrote:
cjbulls wrote:Ok so it’s fair to say you see Lauri as a roughly 19/9 guy on decent efficiency and above average 3pt% and attempts.

It seems hard to argue that player isn’t a 3rd banana type, with some remaining upside to be a 2nd banana. 3rd bananas are worth more than 14.8% of the cap (17M/115M cap next year).

I agree that Lauri is pretty limited so fit on some teams doesn’t always make sense (Bulls may be an example of one of those teams. But for places where he does fit, he becomes worth above 20M. Or places desperate to spend available cap money even if he’s not a perfect fit.

Maybe I’m mixing up what you would pay him over what he’s worth on the open market, but it feels like you are underestimating his market value.


He had a worse season than Mirotic, whom was offered 3/45 and is getting early security. It's hard for me to see why you think he's so much better than Mirotic. He's worse defensively and not really definitively better at anything. He's younger, so maybe there is some upside there, but not a whole bunch.

A 3rd banana type (especially if you think there is upside to be a 2nd banana) should have a lot more versatility and add defensive abilities.


Well for one the cap is larger. Two, we don’t know if that was Niko’s highest offer, just what he turned down. Mirotic was interested in more than just money and the Jazz had a perceived title contender.

And most importantly you’re basing it off of Lauri’s down year compared to Niko, which you do not expect to be replicated.
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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#282 » by coldfish » Wed Dec 2, 2020 11:31 pm

Dez wrote:
coldfish wrote:
Swuul wrote:If Bulls and Lauri doesn't come on terms during the season (Bulls are free to offer an extension any time they want), then the QO is just a technical thing.


It is a cultural thing, ie the finnish code of honor which demands you always see through all agreements you have made (a promise is a promise, a contract is a promise, an agreement is a promise, and you *always* keep your promises or you become a pariah). Not only that, as Lauri has publically (at least twice now) and privately (several times) said he has already more money than he knows what to do with, but that he wants to win in basketball, and be a meaningful part of that win. If it comes down to Bulls offering QO, Lauri won't hang around and see what the "market price" for him is, but accept the QO and then play out the contract and thus being free according to the finnish code of honor.

You have to remember Lauri is from a very traditional region in Finland, and has been grown up in that enviroment, and he truly believes in those very traditional values. It probably is hard for americans to understand, but money isn't everything for him (in his hometown there is an old saying "raha on välttämätön paha" aka "money is the necessary/unavoidable evil"). Maybe it is a moron thing, but most finns believe in life there are more important things than money.


I don't think people understand that Lauri *is* leaving. Chicago needs to get his value up and then trade him for whatever they can to whomever will give it. The QO is just a disaster for all involved and the odds that Lauri ends up taking it next year are very high.


There was a tweet yesterday that Lauri told his agent to get an extension done, now obviously I don't see why he would do this given his value is in the toilet but if they could get him cheap I'd be fine.

I'd go like 2 years 24 million, probably an overpay still honestly but not cap killing otherwise just trade him for whatever.


I would go a lot higher than that and I'm hardly his biggest fan. I would do 4/60 declining. That is to say 16.5 / 15.5 / 14.5 / 13.5.

This seems like a Dak Prescott situation though. I highly doubt his agent lets him take a good value contract even if he wants to. Its bad business for the agent. End result is that everyone ends up with hard feelings and he is forced to move on.
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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#283 » by jump » Thu Dec 3, 2020 12:06 am

Lauri opened last season with a bang. After the game, he told the coach, "I can do better." I remember Zach pulling him aside as the game ended and said something that made Lauri shrink. Later, I recall talk that Boylan scolded him for taking too many mid-range shots, or something like that. Barring injury, I feel he's going to have a great season this year.

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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#284 » by sco » Thu Dec 3, 2020 1:08 am

Swuul wrote:
dougthonus wrote:Lauri is under contract this year, they would offer him the QO next year regardless to put him in restricted status.

If Bulls and Lauri doesn't come on terms during the season (Bulls are free to offer an extension any time they want), then the QO is just a technical thing.

dougthonus wrote:Why do you think Lauri would take the QO? That's an extremely disadvantageous contract for the player most of the time. You seem to think Lauri is a moron, Lauri is awful, or simply are ignorant to basketball economics all together.

It is a cultural thing, ie the finnish code of honor which demands you always see through all agreements you have made (a promise is a promise, a contract is a promise, an agreement is a promise, and you *always* keep your promises or you become a pariah). Not only that, as Lauri has publically (at least twice now) and privately (several times) said he has already more money than he knows what to do with, but that he wants to win in basketball, and be a meaningful part of that win. If it comes down to Bulls offering QO, Lauri won't hang around and see what the "market price" for him is, but accept the QO and then play out the contract and thus being free according to the finnish code of honor.

You have to remember Lauri is from a very traditional region in Finland, and has been grown up in that enviroment, and he truly believes in those very traditional values. It probably is hard for americans to understand, but money isn't everything for him (in his hometown there is an old saying "raha on välttämätön paha" aka "money is the necessary/unavoidable evil"). Maybe it is a moron thing, but most finns believe in life there are more important things than money.

I gotta say that I appreciate the local flavor from the Finn fans.

That said, I would think that the point of honor (since it isn't about $$$) would be how he's treated by new coaching staff. Lauri, in his interview, admitted he basically leaves the contract stuff to his agent (although he half-heartedly said something like "I told him to try to get a deal done with the Bull"). I think the main determinant as to his staying or not is the role he's playing during this season. If he is starting and getting plays run for him on offense, he'll stay (assuming a better offer is forthcoming from the Bulls during next offseason tied to better performance).
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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#285 » by dougthonus » Thu Dec 3, 2020 1:32 am

coldfish wrote:I don't think people understand that Lauri *is* leaving. Chicago needs to get his value up and then trade him for whatever they can to whomever will give it. The QO is just a disaster for all involved and the odds that Lauri ends up taking it next year are very high.


Why would you think the odds of Lauri taking the QO are very high? QOs are pretty rare for anyone worth more than the QO on the open market. I would say by default, its very low odds that anyone takes the QO unless they are in a boat like Val where it is arguably the best contract he can get.

If Lauri does take the QO next year, its likely because he had an awful season this year and figures he has a better chance of rebuilding his value on it.
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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#286 » by MrSparkle » Thu Dec 3, 2020 4:19 am

So I know Lauri is a partisan debate. This sums up my A-B-C thoughts on the guy:

A. Why'd we draft him? Uh Niko/Bobby/PF-defender-blunder-pt.2?

B. Hey this guy is way better than Niko and Bobby (and Jabari).

C. Hey wait, no he's not. He's the same mold. I'd rather have my PF be a mediocre 3P threat with great 5-position defense and handle/pass skills, sooner than a shooter with little big skills, molasses feet and poor defensive awareness.

But anyway, I said it before and I'll say it again:

All he has to do is convert 1 more 3P a game and his PPG and 3P% becomes much better. That's step 1. His 3P% last season can be improved; it's not even debatable. Just a matter of him getting comfortable.

Now where the problems lie: he's got an atrocious AS:TO ratio. Also, despite being an excellent FT shooter, he has not been a serious FTA threat, and for that matter, he really doesn't take anybody off-the-dribble besides Cody Zeller and Kevin Love.

That's not even talking about defense, rebounding, shot-blocking and post-up scoring, which are all below-average for his frame and weight-class.

If he can somehow get his FTAs up to 6 or 7 like Zach, and average 1 more 3P-make a game, his scoring goes up to 21 PPG or so, with margin for more on hot-shooting nights. Which is Dirk-lite. For a nanosecond, I did see a Dirk-lite trajectory, because I thought he was gonna be a lights-out shooter, but he's been downright mediocre amongst all big men. So his strength isn't even a strength in the NBA.

Anyway, whereas GarPax probably would've resigned him at first chance cause of their infatuation for good-character, nice guy draft picks... The right thing is to wait this one out. I think he's an empty calorie PF, but if AK/Donovan can somehow make that Denver triple-tower thing work in Chicago, and Lauri can kind of fit alongside some different defensive line-ups (ie PW & WCJ), he might work out.

Personally I really don't think he's worth more than $12m, but I realize he'll be looking for 20m+. PROBABLY moving on from Lauri unless he's okay with a 40/2y deal and a possible bench role.
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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#287 » by GrowingHorns » Thu Dec 3, 2020 5:12 am

MrSparkle wrote:Sp scoring, which are all below-average for his frame and weight-class.
If he can somehow get his FTAs up to 6 or 7 like Zach, and average 1 more 3P-make a game, his scoring goes up to 21 PPG or so, with margin for more on hot-shooting nights. Which is Dirk-lite. For a nanosecond, I did see a Dirk-lite trajectory, because I thought he was gonna be a lights-out shooter, but he's been downright mediocre amongst all big men. So his strength isn't even a strength in the NBA..



Up to 6 or 7 is unlikely at least for next season, but IF we get our offense working well so there lot of motion and cutting he'll thrive more. He gets to the line the better the more we have motion and cutting. He is bad big rn when he's in stagnated places and can't force things to happen. When he got his FTA'S higher close to 5fta for a while it was when we first inserted Otto and run good schemes with him. I expect that kinda thing. My predictions are career high on FTA's next season. It's not even hard as it's just on 3,8. I expect 5 FTA per game and other improvements.Shall be seen how much, but hope dies last.
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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#288 » by ZOMG » Thu Dec 3, 2020 7:25 am

MrSparkle wrote:All he has to do is convert 1 more 3P a game and his PPG and 3P% becomes much better. That's step 1. His 3P% last season can be improved; it's not even debatable.


This is something we can all agree on: he absolutely has to shoot better from the perimeter. In the NBA, it's enough to shoot 35% IF your main skills are elsewhere - finishing at the rack, for instance. In that case you just have to be respectable so you can attack close outs.

However, if you're a "shooter"... 35 just isn't enough. You have to get near 40. Lauri comfortably shot something like 42% in college (and on high volume to boot) but it hasn't fully translated. Personally, I've said for years that he needs to work with a shooting coach to get more consistency.

Anyway, I've never seen Markkanen as a sharpshooter. IMO he's something of a jack of all trades right now - which isn't a horrible thing to be in the NBA if youre 7ft instead of 6'2''. But again... he has to improve.

That's not even talking about defense, rebounding, shot-blocking and post-up scoring, which are all below-average for his frame and weight-class.


You can forget about shot blocking. Lauri simply doesn't have the length. As for his post game - we all know it's atrocious, but I'm not sure how much Donovan is worrying about that. Something tells me he's not planning to have Lauri banging under the basket. That said, Lauri still has to be respectable there, like every dude his size.

To sum up, while shot blocking and post-up scoring are two definite weaknesses for Markkanen, I don't believe they have much of an effect on how the Bulls see him as a future piece.

I think you're way, way off on rebounding. I think this is an area where Lauri has truly gotten an undeserved bad rap. You're saying he's a "below average" rebounder for a PF. Well, for his career, Lauri is averaging 9rbs per 36. Here's some of his competition, career averages per 36 minutes:

Gallinari 5.7
Harrell 8.5
Porzingis 8.8
Siakam 7.7
Jackson Jr 6.1
Gordon 8.1
Collins 11.2
Sabonis (basically a center) 11.2

As you can see, Lauri most definitely isn't a below average rebounder for a modern PF. The fact is that these perimeter centric guys just don't average 10+ anywhere. Hell, Gallinari averages 4.9rbs for his career and nobody bats an eye. It's a league where scoring is much, much more important.

If Lauri can improve his 3pt shooting and generally drag himself close to 20ppg this season, he'll both deserve and get a 20 million deal from the open market in this modern NBA. That's just how it is. However, I still think he's ready to take less money in exchange for security if they can get an extension done soon.
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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#289 » by Leslie Forman » Thu Dec 3, 2020 9:44 am

coldfish wrote:I do see why certain people are enamored with Lauri. He isn't slow for a 7 footer and does have some driving abilities. If he were to accept certain things, I think he could be a good player. I just don't think he or the people around him accept him as a big and look at him as a wing. He just doesn't have the skills or speed to play the game he seems to want to play at an NBA level.

IMO, as a perimeter 5 he could be an asset but he really needs to learn help defense or be willing to body up people like Embiid.

Yes, this is what I've been saying since he came in the league, he will only ever have value as a true big that spaced the floor, like a more prolific Brook Lopez. He has the physical potential but clearly no desire whatsoever to be that kind of player though, and for that reason he's really just a generally useless sack on the floor now and presumably the future. He is, frankly, the stereotypical soft Euro, but without a high enough skill level or IQ to make up for it.

I have yet to see what makes him any better a player than Bobby Portis, yet I sure don't remember anybody saying Portis really needed to be extended.
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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#290 » by ZOMG » Thu Dec 3, 2020 9:51 am

Leslie Forman wrote:
coldfish wrote:I do see why certain people are enamored with Lauri. He isn't slow for a 7 footer and does have some driving abilities. If he were to accept certain things, I think he could be a good player. I just don't think he or the people around him accept him as a big and look at him as a wing. He just doesn't have the skills or speed to play the game he seems to want to play at an NBA level.

IMO, as a perimeter 5 he could be an asset but he really needs to learn help defense or be willing to body up people like Embiid.

Yes, this is what I've been saying since he came in the league, he will only ever have value as a true big that spaced the floor, like a more prolific Brook Lopez. He has the physical potential but clearly no desire whatsoever to be that kind of player though, and for that reason he's really just a generally useless sack on the floor now and presumably the future. He is, frankly, the stereotypical soft Euro, but without a high enough skill level or IQ to make up for it.

I have yet to see what makes him any better a player than Bobby Portis, yet I sure don't remember anybody saying Portis really needed to be extended.


Bobby is an athletically challenged black hole who can't finish anything near the basket if his jump hook isn't falling. He gets hot from the perimeter once in a while. Big whoop.

And, you know, he once punched a teammate and tends to look unhinged when ge gets a "head full of steam".
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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#291 » by Leslie Forman » Thu Dec 3, 2020 10:02 am

ZOMG wrote:Lauri is an athletically challenged black hole who can't finish anything near the basket if his soft little flippity flip isn't falling. He gets hot from the perimeter once in a while. Big whoop.

FTFY
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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#292 » by dougthonus » Thu Dec 3, 2020 12:23 pm

cjbulls wrote:Well for one the cap is larger. Two, we don’t know if that was Niko’s highest offer, just what he turned down. Mirotic was interested in more than just money and the Jazz had a perceived title contender.


The cap was literally exactly the same last year as this year. Seems really unlikely that Mirotic had better offers and only the worse offer was reported, and clearly Mirotic wasn't interested in the Jazz or he would have signed there so the idea that he was offered a discount because of special interest in winning doesn't seem to make much sense.

And most importantly you’re basing it off of Lauri’s down year compared to Niko, which you do not expect to be replicated.


A few other factors:
Niko was an unrestricted free agent, so that was the best he could get anywhere. Lauri is not even a free agent, and will be restricted when he next is a free agent, both of these would make his deal considerably smaller than Niko's deal due to leverage.

Niko was better than Lauri when entering the market, and you use most recent data when negotiating unless there is a huge reason not to, and there really is no huge reason not to with Lauri. A full season of data is a large sample size.

There is no real reason to expect significant growth from Lauri. Maybe he can improve his scoring volume some, but there isn't a ton of upside for a guy that doesn't have an athletic or skill advantage at his position and can only defend one of five spots and only defend that one adequately.

Do you think Lauri will become a great shot creator for others?
Do you think Lauri is someone who will start becoming an offensive initiator off the dribble?
Do you think Lauri will be a guy who can draw double teams?
Do you think Lauri will become a good help defender?
Do you think Lauri will become a guy who can guard multiple positions?

My answer to all of these things is no.

He's a guy who can chip in points at good but not great efficiency but can't create offense or draw double teams and hurts you on the defensive end.

Lauri has also had health problems in each of his first three seasons in the league and is no sure bet to stay healthy or play well.

So is he valuable? Yes. He's not a vet min guy or even a MLE guy. His scoring ability is valuable enough to make him more money than that, but without adding some of the above features, I fail to see where the upside is here.

If you pay Lauri 20m+ per season you will regret it in 2 years. If you pay him 16-17m it probably won't kill you, but you don't sign a guy a year early that is coming off a down year, can't stay healthy, and has massive limitations to a deal that "won't kill you".

Maybe another comparison is Domantas Sabonis whom signed for 4/77 and was a considerably better looking player than Lauri at similar age when he signed his extension. I'd say that puts an absolute ceiling on where Lauri's contract is as less than that one which was effectively 20M per season.
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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#293 » by Leslie Forman » Thu Dec 3, 2020 12:37 pm

dougthonus wrote:So is he valuable? Yes. He's not a vet min guy or even a MLE guy.

I'd argue that the MLE is more than fair for him. The MLE is pretty dang big these days. It's a little over $9mil a year. Harrell and Saric just got similar money and Lauri is certainly not better than either of them.

This $15mil-ish a year talk is absolutely absurd to me. I have no idea what people here have been watching for the last three years, because it's certainly not what I've been watching.
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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#294 » by dougthonus » Thu Dec 3, 2020 12:47 pm

Leslie Forman wrote:
dougthonus wrote:So is he valuable? Yes. He's not a vet min guy or even a MLE guy.

I'd argue that the MLE is more than fair for him. The MLE is pretty dang big these days. It's a little over $9mil a year. Harrell and Saric just got similar money and Lauri is certainly not better than either of them.

This $15mil-ish a year talk is absolutely absurd to me. I have no idea what people here have been watching for the last three years, because it's certainly not what I've been watching.


I can't say I'm watching a whole lot of Dario Saric, but Lauri seems a decent amount better than Saric even if he were not to improve. It was reported that Harrell turned down a larger offer from the Hornets to sign with the Lakers. On First Take, Kendrick Perkins said it was 4/80, but I can't find any other sources to back it up (though he clearly turned down more money from the Hornets, so the question is just how much more).

Harrell was definitely better last year and was unrestricted rather than a guy seeking early security whom will be restricted, and so also had tons more leverage.
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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#295 » by Leslie Forman » Thu Dec 3, 2020 1:23 pm

dougthonus wrote:I can't say I'm watching a whole lot of Dario Saric, but Lauri seems a decent amount better than Saric even if he were not to improve. It was reported that Harrell turned down a larger offer from the Hornets to sign with the Lakers. On First Take, Kendrick Perkins said it was 4/80, but I can't find any other sources to back it up (though he clearly turned down more money from the Hornets, so the question is just how much more).

Harrell was definitely better last year and was unrestricted rather than a guy seeking early security whom will be restricted, and so also had tons more leverage.

Saric is better. He's nothing amazing either, hence his contract, but he is a far better ballhandler and passer, just as good a shooter, and just plays a smarter and more versatile brand of basketball. He lacks length and quickness, which limits his defense and shot creation ability but hey same goes for Lauri. I would say he's closer to a Mirotic in overall quality than a Markkanen.

I highly doubt Harrell was offered anything remotely like that and turned it down - he has only made about $15mil in his career up to now. Obviously has far less than that in the bank after taxes. Very few players of his ability have made so little so far in their careers. I would guess it was more about the years than a salary more than double what he got. I don't think there's any chance playing with LeBron is worth that much money to any player.

I don't actually think Lauri will end up getting only MLE money, but just as a player…he really hasn't proven he is worth any more than it. It'll be interesting to see what Kuzma gets. I'd say they're at about a similar level as players.
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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#296 » by sco » Thu Dec 3, 2020 1:43 pm

There is an (optimistic) scenario where PWill shows he needs to be starting this season and shows better at the PF than SF position, if we sign Lauri to a deal for more than $15M, we could regret it.
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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#297 » by cjbulls » Thu Dec 3, 2020 2:12 pm

dougthonus wrote:
cjbulls wrote:Well for one the cap is larger. Two, we don’t know if that was Niko’s highest offer, just what he turned down. Mirotic was interested in more than just money and the Jazz had a perceived title contender.


The cap was literally exactly the same last year as this year. Seems really unlikely that Mirotic had better offers and only the worse offer was reported, and clearly Mirotic wasn't interested in the Jazz or he would have signed there so the idea that he was offered a discount because of special interest in winning doesn't seem to make much sense.


Lauri's raise wouldn't be this year. His extension or RFA is next year where the cap is already raised and cannot be changed per CBA.

I don't see how you can say it's unlikely Niko received better offers. The Knicks gave $15m to Bobby Portis! Harrison Barnes (21), Rozier (18.9), Rubio (17), Gay (16) also struck deals. It seems like Niko wanted to be happy which meant playing for a winner or playing in Spain. This isn't unusual as you point out Harrell took significantly less money in a post just above.


dougthonus wrote: Niko was an unrestricted free agent, so that was the best he could get anywhere. Lauri is not even a free agent, and will be restricted when he next is a free agent, both of these would make his deal considerably smaller than Niko's deal due to leverage.


RFAs make more money than they would as a UFA as offering teams sweeten the deal to get the other team not to match. The leverage is to the player's advantage, not the reverse. Bulls did something similar with Zach and ended up overpaying for him (which Zach ended up overperforming anyways)

dougthonus wrote:Niko was better than Lauri when entering the market, and you use most recent data when negotiating unless there is a huge reason not to, and there really is no huge reason not to with Lauri. A full season of data is a large sample size.


There is a huge reason that you keep saying may not matter, but clearly does: age. And that's before getting into the fact everyone agrees last year was an unusual down year that we do not expect to be replicated this year. Yes, I'm not expecting Lauri to become a 25/12 guy, but it's reasonable to think he can hit his second year numbers under BD.

As much as you want to use Niko (agree they are similar), why not choose Gallinari. His last year was nearly identical to Lauri's year 2 and he has similar issues, injury history, etc. to the problems you described for Lauri:

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=gallida01&p1yrfrom=2020&player_id2=markkla01&p2yrfrom=2019

At age 31 and on Lauri's second year numbers, DG just received 3/61.5

dougthonus wrote:If you pay Lauri 20m+ per season you will regret it in 2 years. If you pay him 16-17m it probably won't kill you, but you don't sign a guy a year early that is coming off a down year, can't stay healthy, and has massive limitations to a deal that "won't kill you".


It seems you are using your own judgment, which is fine btw, I largely agree with you. He should get something like 4/66 now or tell him to play out the year. But don't be frustrated when they have to pay much more next year even when Lauri produces the expected good but not great numbers. The FA market is a different world and it's hard for me to see him topping out at 16-17 AAV unless of course he continues the regression from last season. The winner's curse aspect of FA tends to force these contracts beyond what "reasonable" worth is established at.
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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#298 » by dougthonus » Thu Dec 3, 2020 3:27 pm

cjbulls wrote:Lauri's raise wouldn't be this year. His extension or RFA is next year where the cap is already raised and cannot be changed per CBA.


What does future cap room have to do with that? You sign based on current cap. The expected cap growth over the next four years was certainly greater last year than this year, where it will likely be capped at 3M per year growth, and was previously expected to grow much more.

I don't see how you can say it's unlikely Niko received better offers.


Well, because they weren't reported. There's literally no reason to think he did.

The Knicks gave $15m to Bobby Portis!


Bobby Portis signed a one year deal.

Harrison Barnes (21), Rozier (18.9), Rubio (17), Gay (16) also struck deals.


None of whom are remotely similar players to Lauri and aren't useful comparisons.

RFAs make more money than they would as a UFA as offering teams sweeten the deal to get the other team not to match. The leverage is to the player's advantage, not the reverse. Bulls did something similar with Zach and ended up overpaying for him (which Zach ended up overperforming anyways)


That is not my impression historically. Typically, I would say historically, teams are hesitant to bid, and less likely to get in a bidding war due to the threat of matching and having their cap room tied up. That may be less true today because they shortened the restricted period to 2 days though.

There is a huge reason that you keep saying may not matter, but clearly does: age. And that's before getting into the fact everyone agrees last year was an unusual down year that we do not expect to be replicated this year. Yes, I'm not expecting Lauri to become a 25/12 guy, but it's reasonable to think he can hit his second year numbers under BD.


I don't think everyone agrees that last year was an unusual down year. It was a down year, but whether Lauri can be a contributor on a winning team is highly questionable.

As much as you want to use Niko (agree they are similar), why not choose Gallinari. His last year was nearly identical to Lauri's year 2 and he has similar issues, injury history, etc. to the problems you described for Lauri:


Gallinari is a much better play maker and can initiate offense, if Lauri could do this, then I think he'd be worth way more money. If you think Lauri can do this, then I can understand why you think Lauri would be worth more money.

Again, comparing Lauri of two years ago makes little sense. His value is what it is now because of last year, not because what he did two years ago. If he had his season of two years ago this season, then I think he'd be worth a lot more, because you would expect he could improve on that season of two years ago, but instead, we're hoping he can get back to that season.

It seems you are using your own judgment, which is fine btw, I largely agree with you. He should get something like 4/66 now or tell him to play out the year. But don't be frustrated when they have to pay much more next year even when Lauri produces the expected good but not great numbers. The FA market is a different world and it's hard for me to see him topping out at 16-17 AAV unless of course he continues the regression from last season. The winner's curse aspect of FA tends to force these contracts beyond what "reasonable" worth is established at.


If we have to pay more for Lauri in a year, we should not pay him more. He's not a good player to build around. As noted, he has way too many flaws and doesn't fit into the modern NBA paradigm.

FA does become an interesting negotiation, because you either become someone good enough people are willing to bid for in which case your value ends up getting inflated, or you don't, in which case it can get deflated. Its certainly an inefficient market.

As an example that Leslie Forman brought up, Harrell, whom is clearly a better player, just got 2/19M from the Lakers. Obviously he wanted to win a title and probably wanted to stay in LA.

We'll see what happens with him, if we keep Lauri on a deal closer to 20M then I think we'll be very unhappy with it shortly after signing it regardless of whether that is now or whether it is in a year. Maybe he will probe me wrong, I'm certainly wrong plenty.
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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#299 » by Indomitable » Thu Dec 3, 2020 3:47 pm

Lauri is a limited player. He lacks the will to be more. Jimmy grew because he stayed healthy and he refused to fail.

Hey that is a great trait to have in life. Lauri is a good guy but he is not a peace to build around.

People like to blame everyone for his failure. He is man enough to admit he failed. He is nothing special.

If this was 2009. Lauri would be a perfecf piece to finish the team. Actually a team of Lauri, Noah, Jimmy, Rose, Deng would have be unstoppable. Lauri needs a decent post game to work as a 4 today or he needs to become a Center. He is a terrible Center. He does not have the instincts.
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Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#300 » by ZOMG » Thu Dec 3, 2020 4:05 pm

dougthonus wrote:As an example that Leslie Forman brought up, Harrell, whom is clearly a better player, just got 2/19M from the Lakers. Obviously he wanted to win a title and probably wanted to stay in LA.


Harrell is "clearly" a better player?? :lol: He's different, that's for sure. An undersized non-shooter who doesn't pass the ball isn't exactly every GM's dream these days.

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