cjbulls wrote:Lauri's raise wouldn't be this year. His extension or RFA is next year where the cap is already raised and cannot be changed per CBA.
What does future cap room have to do with that? You sign based on current cap. The expected cap growth over the next four years was certainly greater last year than this year, where it will likely be capped at 3M per year growth, and was previously expected to grow much more.
I don't see how you can say it's unlikely Niko received better offers.
Well, because they weren't reported. There's literally no reason to think he did.
The Knicks gave $15m to Bobby Portis!
Bobby Portis signed a one year deal.
Harrison Barnes (21), Rozier (18.9), Rubio (17), Gay (16) also struck deals.
None of whom are remotely similar players to Lauri and aren't useful comparisons.
RFAs make more money than they would as a UFA as offering teams sweeten the deal to get the other team not to match. The leverage is to the player's advantage, not the reverse. Bulls did something similar with Zach and ended up overpaying for him (which Zach ended up overperforming anyways)
That is not my impression historically. Typically, I would say historically, teams are hesitant to bid, and less likely to get in a bidding war due to the threat of matching and having their cap room tied up. That may be less true today because they shortened the restricted period to 2 days though.
There is a huge reason that you keep saying may not matter, but clearly does: age. And that's before getting into the fact everyone agrees last year was an unusual down year that we do not expect to be replicated this year. Yes, I'm not expecting Lauri to become a 25/12 guy, but it's reasonable to think he can hit his second year numbers under BD.
I don't think everyone agrees that last year was an unusual down year. It was a down year, but whether Lauri can be a contributor on a winning team is highly questionable.
As much as you want to use Niko (agree they are similar), why not choose Gallinari. His last year was nearly identical to Lauri's year 2 and he has similar issues, injury history, etc. to the problems you described for Lauri:
Gallinari is a much better play maker and can initiate offense, if Lauri could do this, then I think he'd be worth way more money. If you think Lauri can do this, then I can understand why you think Lauri would be worth more money.
Again, comparing Lauri of two years ago makes little sense. His value is what it is now because of last year, not because what he did two years ago. If he had his season of two years ago this season, then I think he'd be worth a lot more, because you would expect he could improve on that season of two years ago, but instead, we're hoping he can get back to that season.
It seems you are using your own judgment, which is fine btw, I largely agree with you. He should get something like 4/66 now or tell him to play out the year. But don't be frustrated when they have to pay much more next year even when Lauri produces the expected good but not great numbers. The FA market is a different world and it's hard for me to see him topping out at 16-17 AAV unless of course he continues the regression from last season. The winner's curse aspect of FA tends to force these contracts beyond what "reasonable" worth is established at.
If we have to pay more for Lauri in a year, we should not pay him more. He's not a good player to build around. As noted, he has way too many flaws and doesn't fit into the modern NBA paradigm.
FA does become an interesting negotiation, because you either become someone good enough people are willing to bid for in which case your value ends up getting inflated, or you don't, in which case it can get deflated. Its certainly an inefficient market.
As an example that Leslie Forman brought up, Harrell, whom is clearly a better player, just got 2/19M from the Lakers. Obviously he wanted to win a title and probably wanted to stay in LA.
We'll see what happens with him, if we keep Lauri on a deal closer to 20M then I think we'll be very unhappy with it shortly after signing it regardless of whether that is now or whether it is in a year. Maybe he will probe me wrong, I'm certainly wrong plenty.