OT: Bears Talk - Justin Fields era begins

[patryk7754]

Justin Fields has the potential to be better than what Josh Allen showed this past season. Coming out of college, he's a better, more accurate passer. Makes better decisions and has gone up against more NFL talent meaning he'll be more ready than Allen was. Second, physically, they are similar Allen is just a couple inches taller. Athletically, Fields has him beat and Allen is a pretty damn good athlete. And overall their playstyle is similar mostly the tendency to go deep.

On top of all that, Fields will have a better roster coming out of college giving him a huge advantage. Robinson is a top ten WR, Mooney has shown potential to be a number one and with the addition of Goodwin and Newsome (and possibly still keep Miller) the depth at WR is pretty good. Kmet and Graham can be one of the top TE duos in the NFL. And then you got Cohen and Monty in the backfield. Plus an elite defense. Possibly most importantly, he has less pressure. If Fields isn't ready right away Dalton is there. I don't think Allen had that advantage.

I think Fields rookie season floor will be similar to what Herbet did in LA

[patryk7754]

An underrated storyline that I think will happen is Nagy's redemption with Fields. As much as Nagy failed with the QB situation in Chicago, I think Fields gives Nagy the opportunity to unlock his offense the way he's been wanting to. When he sees Mitch miss a wide-open Robinson by ten years or Foles throw a 10-yard duck int he lost all faith in running an offense. Although you would expect a HC to not break mentally, it's somewhat understandable for Nagy to reach the level of frustrations he did.

He should have been fired two years ago, imo, but this is the first real chance to showcase his "offensive genius" so he can possibly save his job and reputation. And Hopefully, he learns how not to be mentally weak like he's shown the tendency to be with Mitch.

[Dresden]

Justin Fields has the potential to be better than what Josh Allen showed this past season. Coming out of college, he's a better, more accurate passer. Makes better decisions and has gone up against more NFL talent meaning he'll be more ready than Allen was. Second, physically, they are similar Allen is just a couple inches taller. Athletically, Fields has him beat and Allen is a pretty damn good athlete. And overall their playstyle is similar mostly the tendency to go deep.

On top of all that, Fields will have a better roster coming out of college giving him a huge advantage. Robinson is a top ten WR, Mooney has shown potential to be a number one and with the addition of Goodwin and Newsome (and possibly still keep Miller) the depth at WR is pretty good. Kmet and Graham can be one of the top TE duos in the NFL. And then you got Cohen and Monty in the backfield. Plus an elite defense. Possibly most importantly, he has less pressure. If Fields isn't ready right away Dalton is there. I don't think Allen had that advantage.

I think Fields rookie season floor will be similar to what Herbet did in LA

Considering Herbert blew most people away with his rookie season, saying that that will be Field's floor is perhaps going overboard a tad. I would say it's more likely his ceiling, for his rookie year.

But like many others have said, I also feel Fields is the best QB prospect we've drafted since I've been following the Bears (going back to the Jack Concannon/Virgil Carter era). There's almost nothing not to like about the kid- he's very accurate, he's got a great deep ball, he's super fast, he's tough and durable, he's well liked by teamates and is a hard worker, he has proven big game success, he's got a great resume coming out of college. I honestly don't know how much more you could hope to get in a QB coming out of college, esp. considering they got him at pick #11. As big of a mistake as what they did to get Mitch was, it seems like this has the potential to be just as big of a swing in the other direction. Let's just hope he stays healthy now.

[patryk7754]

I think there are a couple of moves the Bears can do and be in legit contention to win the division and more. Here they are;

Cut Leno: He's an average talent at best and with penalty issues, he's been a net negative the past two seasons and he's getting hurt more often as he gets older and I doubt that stops this season. Saving 6.2m is worth cutting him alone and on top of that we drafted two OT and one of them is a day one starter. With Fields athleticism, he takes some pressure off the line and as insurance, there are a few decent OTs that can be signed and step in for Teven if need be.

Cut Wims: self-explanatory. cutting him saves 920k

Try and trade Foles: Eagles would have been the best option but they got Flacco so that's off the table. I think it would be worth sending a 7th or even maybe a 6th to get him off the roster. Trading him saves 1.3m and cutting him would cause the bears to lose cap space. Possible trade candidates: Panthers, Chiefs, and Giants. None of those teams have real legit backups except the Chiefs kinda but they could put a lot of stock in Foles being a great "locker room guy" and there's already a connection between Reid and Foles. The likelihood is that he's on the roster this season but I'll operate under the best-case scenario. Fole and a 7th to one of these teams saving 1.6m in cap

Extend Daniels and Nicols: Extending both of them makes sense because the FO should want them both on the roster past this season and doing so would allow the Bears to convert some of their salaries into signing bonuses. I'll say 1m each saving 2m total. Not only does that help in the short-term but we could win in the long term. Nelson is about to reset the market for OGs and extending Daniels now could save us money on his contract if we wait. Nicolas played better than most would have expected, imo, at NT and now that he's playing DE he'll probably play close to a pro bowl level and we should extend him now at a discount

Sign to vet-min
Ryan Kerrigan
Justin Houston
Russel Okung
Brian Poole (I'd actually be surprised if he signs for the min but there's a chance since he's still a FA. I think the most the FO should sign him for is 3-4m depending on how much cap can be freed up. If we can't sign him there are plenty of options for the Bears at the min; Kirkpatrick, Sherman, Dennard, Heyward, etc)

Kerrigan and Houston bring much-needed pass rush depth imo. Even tho they are past their primes I think in a limited role they still bring good value with their experience and intelligence. Bucs showed you can never have too many pass-rushers. Russel Okung might not be the best OT available but he has the most experience at LT and will probably be the cheapest out of the best left. If Wagner is possible to the vet min or close to it then I want him.

Post June 1st

Convert Quinn's salary into a bonus to create 10m worth of cap space.

Trade Miller, 3rd, and a 6th for Julio. IIRC, Antonio Brown was traded to the Raiders for a 3rd and 5th so I think this is fair vaule for Julio. If anything, this might be too much given his age, injuries, and the fact that the Falcons are in a very tough spot.


Fields
Robinson/Julio/Mooney
Kmet/Graham
Monty/Cohen
Teven/Whitehair/Mustiphar/Daniels/Ifedi
Hicks/Goldman/Nicols(Edwards/Tonga/Blackson)
Mack/Smith/Trevathan/Quinn(Kerrigan/Houston/Jones/Attacho)
Johnson/Trufant/Poole (Shelley/Vindor)
Jackson/Gibson

[dice]

Justin Fields has the potential to be better than what Josh Allen showed this past season. Coming out of college, he's a better, more accurate passer. Makes better decisions and has gone up against more NFL talent meaning he'll be more ready than Allen was. Second, physically, they are similar Allen is just a couple inches taller. Athletically, Fields has him beat and Allen is a pretty damn good athlete. And overall their playstyle is similar mostly the tendency to go deep.

On top of all that, Fields will have a better roster coming out of college giving him a huge advantage. Robinson is a top ten WR, Mooney has shown potential to be a number one and with the addition of Goodwin and Newsome (and possibly still keep Miller) the depth at WR is pretty good. Kmet and Graham can be one of the top TE duos in the NFL. And then you got Cohen and Monty in the backfield. Plus an elite defense. Possibly most importantly, he has less pressure. If Fields isn't ready right away Dalton is there. I don't think Allen had that advantage.

I think Fields rookie season floor will be similar to what Herbet did in LA

the bears have not had an elite defense since 2018. they might be no better than average this season (though i anticipate another above average year)

[patryk7754]

Justin Fields has the potential to be better than what Josh Allen showed this past season. Coming out of college, he's a better, more accurate passer. Makes better decisions and has gone up against more NFL talent meaning he'll be more ready than Allen was. Second, physically, they are similar Allen is just a couple inches taller. Athletically, Fields has him beat and Allen is a pretty damn good athlete. And overall their playstyle is similar mostly the tendency to go deep.

On top of all that, Fields will have a better roster coming out of college giving him a huge advantage. Robinson is a top ten WR, Mooney has shown potential to be a number one and with the addition of Goodwin and Newsome (and possibly still keep Miller) the depth at WR is pretty good. Kmet and Graham can be one of the top TE duos in the NFL. And then you got Cohen and Monty in the backfield. Plus an elite defense. Possibly most importantly, he has less pressure. If Fields isn't ready right away Dalton is there. I don't think Allen had that advantage.

I think Fields rookie season floor will be similar to what Herbet did in LA

the bears have not had an elite defense since 2018. they might be no better than average this season (though i anticipate another above average year)

were they not top five in scoring defense? That would be elite, especially considering how much they were on the field.

edit:
just checked and no they weren't but they are definitely a top 10 defense which is always a good thing to have

[fleet]

The UDFAs are interesting. Seem like more upside than floor.

[transplant]

I've given it some thought and I'm going to remain a Bears fan even if the Niners are better. I've stuck with them since the early 60s so it wasn't a tough decision.

The Bears draft was all about those first 2 picks. Getting Fields was an unreal surprise. He may or may not be an upper-tier NFL QB, but the fact that he may be changes everything for me as a fan. That pick infused hope where there was none. Trading up to get Jenkins in the second round, when many mocks had the Bears taking him with the 20th overall pick, would normally have been the highlight of any team's draft. With all due respect to the rest of the Bears 2021 picks, they had a great draft with these two picks. Anything they get from the rest of their picks is just gravy.

I don’t think the Bears maxed out reasonable good outcomes. As previously mentioned, If Jenkins was not playing a position of plenty in this draft it would have been about the top 2 picks for me as well. But again the Bears fall in love with certain guys and overdo things. That 3rd rounder was a big loss considering that this draft was rich in OLinemen. I don’t want to fixate on it though. Just saying, because nobody else is, and it should be noted.

Respect ya, Fleet and obviously, you can feel however you feel. I didn't think there was any chance that the Bears could get a reasonably-possible franchise QB in this draft without doing something completely ruinous to their future, but they did it. The reasonable possibility of getting the QB position right on a rookie contract is an absolute game-changer. To be able to pull this off and then get the OT that many experts thought you'd take with the 20th overall pick that you traded to the Giants was delicious. The value of these 2 picks greatly exceeds anything I believed the Bears might have gotten out of their first 3 picks.

[Jcool0]

That happened to Vanderbilt Jay Cutler as well, when caucasion Vince Young leaped over him in the draft.

Stop living in the past. NFL scouts can no longer afford to be racist against black QBs, kind of is bad for their job prospects.

Vince was the best QB in college football. What are talking about. And I still believe it may not be overt, but these black QBs like Watson, Mahommes and Fields keep sliding down one draft despite clearly being immense talents. I will absolutely shocked if that that guy from BYU has a better career than Fields.

i'm sure that some people were saying the same thing about daniel jones and dwayne haskins. jones has been excellent as a pro, haskins a total train wreck

haskins at OSU: 70% completion, 54 TD, 9 INT, 174.0 rating, 3rd in heisman
jones at duke: 60% completion, 52 TD, 29 INT, 122.9 rating, didn't even get an honorable mention all-ACC as a senior

trubisky fits the racism narrative, jones doesn't

Daniel Jones as been excellent as a pro? I take it you don't follow football? That is the only reason for making that statement. He has lead the league in fumbles each of his two years in the NFL. He has been sacked 83 times in 26 starts. In 14 starts last season he threw 11 TDs and 10 INTs.

[dice]

Justin Fields has the potential to be better than what Josh Allen showed this past season. Coming out of college, he's a better, more accurate passer. Makes better decisions and has gone up against more NFL talent meaning he'll be more ready than Allen was. Second, physically, they are similar Allen is just a couple inches taller. Athletically, Fields has him beat and Allen is a pretty damn good athlete. And overall their playstyle is similar mostly the tendency to go deep.

On top of all that, Fields will have a better roster coming out of college giving him a huge advantage. Robinson is a top ten WR, Mooney has shown potential to be a number one and with the addition of Goodwin and Newsome (and possibly still keep Miller) the depth at WR is pretty good. Kmet and Graham can be one of the top TE duos in the NFL. And then you got Cohen and Monty in the backfield. Plus an elite defense. Possibly most importantly, he has less pressure. If Fields isn't ready right away Dalton is there. I don't think Allen had that advantage.

I think Fields rookie season floor will be similar to what Herbet did in LA

the bears have not had an elite defense since 2018. they might be no better than average this season (though i anticipate another above average year)

were they not top five in scoring defense? That would be elite, especially considering how much they were on the field.

edit:
just checked and no they weren't but they are definitely a top 10 defense which is always a good thing to have

these guys have the bears D ranked 13th heading into next season:

https://sportsnaut.com/nfl-defense-rankings/

that's average to above average. and here are the DVOA rankings for the D for the last 3 seasons:

2018 #1 with a bullet
2019 10th
2020 8th

so a projection of 13th makes total sense given that fuller is now gone and neither the draft nor free agency did much to supplement the unit. that said, PFF does like their round 6 CB pick (as well as the entire draft for the bears):

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-grades-all-32-teams

[dougthonus]

The Bears had a draft that I would think fans would love. Tried to shore up the offensive line and the QB position. It's a bummer they signed Dalton. What a waste of money that is now. Obviously they didn't know they'd get a QB in the draft even if they knew they'd target one, but I'd be nearly just as comfortable starting Foles as Dalton and would rather have the money back to use elsewhere.

[dice]

Vince was the best QB in college football. What are talking about. And I still believe it may not be overt, but these black QBs like Watson, Mahommes and Fields keep sliding down one draft despite clearly being immense talents. I will absolutely shocked if that that guy from BYU has a better career than Fields.

i'm sure that some people were saying the same thing about daniel jones and dwayne haskins. jones has been excellent as a pro, haskins a total train wreck

haskins at OSU: 70% completion, 54 TD, 9 INT, 174.0 rating, 3rd in heisman
jones at duke: 60% completion, 52 TD, 29 INT, 122.9 rating, didn't even get an honorable mention all-ACC as a senior

trubisky fits the racism narrative, jones doesn't

Daniel Jones as been excellent as a pro? I take it you don't follow football? That is the only reason for making that statement. He has lead the league in fumbles each of his two years in the NFL. He has been sacked 83 times in 26 starts. In 14 starts last season he threw 11 TDs and 10 INTs.

rookie QBR 55.7
2nd year 61.5

only macro stat that matters. because it's situational. that he managed those above average results despite running for his life behind an awful line while learning the position at the pro level is remarkable. and you don't KNOW football if you think that a QB should be judged heavily on how often he's sacked. TD passes are overrated as well. jones's INT % is low given how much he's pressured. he needs to reduce negative outcomes under pressure, for sure, but he ranked 12th in passing grade from a clean pocket last season and is highly accurate on the deep ball

meanwhile, haskins's QBR under similarly bad circumstances:

rookie 28.0
2nd year 31.0

horror movie

[WindyCityBorn]

i'm sure that some people were saying the same thing about daniel jones and dwayne haskins. jones has been excellent as a pro, haskins a total train wreck

haskins at OSU: 70% completion, 54 TD, 9 INT, 174.0 rating, 3rd in heisman
jones at duke: 60% completion, 52 TD, 29 INT, 122.9 rating, didn't even get an honorable mention all-ACC as a senior

trubisky fits the racism narrative, jones doesn't

Daniel Jones as been excellent as a pro? I take it you don't follow football? That is the only reason for making that statement. He has lead the league in fumbles each of his two years in the NFL. He has been sacked 83 times in 26 starts. In 14 starts last season he threw 11 TDs and 10 INTs.

rookie QBR 55.7
2nd year 61.5

only macro stat that matters. because it's situational. that he managed those above average results despite running for his life behind an awful line while learning the position at the pro level is remarkable. and you don't KNOW football if you think that a QB should be judged heavily on how often he's sacked. TD passes are overrated as well. jones's INT % is low given how much he's pressured. he needs to reduce negative outcomes under pressure, for sure, but he ranked 12th in passing grade from a clean pocket last season and is highly accurate on the deep ball

meanwhile, haskins's QBR under similarly bad circumstances:

rookie 28.0
2nd year 31.0

horror movie

TD passes are overrated? Now I have read of all.

[dougthonus]

TD passes are overrated? Now I have read of all.

As a predictive metric? Yes.

[fleet]

I've given it some thought and I'm going to remain a Bears fan even if the Niners are better. I've stuck with them since the early 60s so it wasn't a tough decision.

The Bears draft was all about those first 2 picks. Getting Fields was an unreal surprise. He may or may not be an upper-tier NFL QB, but the fact that he may be changes everything for me as a fan. That pick infused hope where there was none. Trading up to get Jenkins in the second round, when many mocks had the Bears taking him with the 20th overall pick, would normally have been the highlight of any team's draft. With all due respect to the rest of the Bears 2021 picks, they had a great draft with these two picks. Anything they get from the rest of their picks is just gravy.

I don’t think the Bears maxed out reasonable good outcomes. As previously mentioned, If Jenkins was not playing a position of plenty in this draft it would have been about the top 2 picks for me as well. But again the Bears fall in love with certain guys and overdo things. That 3rd rounder was a big loss considering that this draft was rich in OLinemen. I don’t want to fixate on it though. Just saying, because nobody else is, and it should be noted.

Respect ya, Fleet and obviously, you can feel however you feel. I didn't think there was any chance that the Bears could get a reasonably-possible franchise QB in this draft without doing something completely ruinous to their future, but they did it. The reasonable possibility of getting the QB position right on a rookie contract is an absolute game-changer. To be able to pull this off and then get the OT that many experts thought you'd take with the 20th overall pick that you traded to the Giants was delicious. The value of these 2 picks greatly exceeds anything I believed the Bears might have gotten out of their first 3 picks.

The Fields deal was fine.

[Jcool0]

i'm sure that some people were saying the same thing about daniel jones and dwayne haskins. jones has been excellent as a pro, haskins a total train wreck

haskins at OSU: 70% completion, 54 TD, 9 INT, 174.0 rating, 3rd in heisman
jones at duke: 60% completion, 52 TD, 29 INT, 122.9 rating, didn't even get an honorable mention all-ACC as a senior

trubisky fits the racism narrative, jones doesn't

Daniel Jones as been excellent as a pro? I take it you don't follow football? That is the only reason for making that statement. He has lead the league in fumbles each of his two years in the NFL. He has been sacked 83 times in 26 starts. In 14 starts last season he threw 11 TDs and 10 INTs.

rookie QBR 55.7
2nd year 61.5

only macro stat that matters. because it's situational. that he managed those above average results despite running for his life behind an awful line while learning the position at the pro level is remarkable. and you don't KNOW football if you think that a QB should be judged heavily on how often he's sacked. TD passes are overrated as well. jones's INT % is low given how much he's pressured. he needs to reduce negative outcomes under pressure, for sure, but he ranked 12th in passing grade from a clean pocket last season and is highly accurate on the deep ball

meanwhile, haskins's QBR under similarly bad circumstances:

rookie 28.0
2nd year 31.0

horror movie

\

QBR is an ESPN made up stat they came up with years ago that they tried to push to replace QB Rating... It flopped and no one uses it. I am surprised they still update it each season. Oh and who else had an 61 QBR last season (20th best).... Mitch Trubisky...

[WindyCityBorn]

TD passes are overrated? Now I have read of all.

As a predictive metric? Yes.

It’s not predictive. He is in the NFL now.

[2018C3]

Kevin White was a monumental bust. .

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears/why-former-bears-wide-receiver-kevin-white-feels-cheated-football

what is your point?

Nothing, other then some good guys sometimes get injured and are not able to display the talent that got them drafted. Fans like to criticize players like this, but sometimes injury's are real, and do effect performance.

It would suck to work your life into a position to athletically succeed, and make good choices along the way. Only to have a series of injury's take it all away.

I don't like calling people who try and fail to injury busts.

I try to reserve that term to people who cause there own demise through bad choices.

[Jcool0]

TD passes are overrated? Now I have read of all.

As a predictive metric? Yes.

It’s not predictive. He is in the NFL now.

For two seasons and one more down season for him and NY will be looking for a new QB.

[dougthonus]

TD passes are overrated? Now I have read of all.

As a predictive metric? Yes.

It’s not predictive. He is in the NFL now.

Then let me rephrase, it isn't that meaningful as a metric of total ability or future ability. Granted, I'm not that excited necessarily about Jones as a great QB either.