2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th: PT 2

[cjbulls]

Brandon Clarke is exactly who I expected him to be. He’s an energy big man, with great athleticism, and does all the little things really well. That being said, his ceiling was always a borderline starter because he’s limited offensively and has below average size for the position. He’s fortunate to be playing with one of the best young passing guards in the NBA. Clarke is a nice player to have on your roster but comparing him to LaVine is laughable. They’re completely different players with completely different roles on their teams.

This board still surprises me with how critical y’all are on Zach LaVine. He’s one of the best young scoring guards in the NBA. He might not be that elite two-way player, but let’s not pretend a lot of guards are. (Harden, Mitchell, Booker, Beal)

LaVine would be an all star if the Bulls made the playoffs. It’s not his fault WCJ, OPJ, and Markkanen all can’t stay healthy.

Zach is only 1.5 years older too

[TheSuzerain]

Clarke was clearly better than White as a prospect. That was botched.

You are clearly wrong. It is a close call to the point where there would be a good split depending on the GM, but there is no “clearly better” for Clarke as a prospect over White.

The botched piece was that he could have been had for very little. Bulls should have jumped on him as he was dropping, but so should have everyone.

The draft isn’t easy.

I'm not wrong. And I said it in draft night.

Clarke is plainly superior to White. On offense and defense.

[TheSuzerain]

Clarke isn't a borderline starter. He's clearly a starting quality 4.

[PlayerUp]

Carsen Edwards was a smart and productive player, but older with below average length (at a position where length matters less). He has sucked so far.

Advanced stats aren't good for Edwards in college. Have to look at advanced stats.

110 Offensive Rating
104 Defensive Rating
23 PER
54% TS

For someone his age, these are just okay advanced numbers for someone going in the draft. Much better options.

Fair rebuttal, but the point was advanced stats (or any one factor) are not indicative of much on their own, especially for college, and even more especially for weak advanced stats like Org and Drtg. It’s not like the GMs missed those factors. They are the reason he went as high as he did.

There are examples of older college players who did perform well (advanced stats) but struggled in the NBA. I'd have to dig deep to find them. Carsen Edwards just not a good example.

[Chicago-Bull-E]

Lots of advanced stats had him high.

538 had him 7th in their CARMELO projections

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-top-50-nba-draft-prospects-according-to-our-carmelo-projections/amp/

STATS NBA draft model had him 3rd

https://www.statsperform.com/resource/introducing-stats-nba-draft-model-an-inside-look-at-2019-prospect-rankings-and-comparisons-using-stats-proprietary-data-analysis/

This link notes 2nd highest plus minus behind Zion, 2nd highest PER behind Zion

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/nba/2019/12/19/21023793/brandon-clarke-grizzlies-nba-draft-stats-highlights-gonzaga

Stepien has him as tier 2 (top 5)

https://www.thestepien.com/2019-draft-rankings/

[cjbulls]

Clarke was clearly better than White as a prospect. That was botched.

You are clearly wrong. It is a close call to the point where there would be a good split depending on the GM, but there is no “clearly better” for Clarke as a prospect over White.

The botched piece was that he could have been had for very little. Bulls should have jumped on him as he was dropping, but so should have everyone.

The draft isn’t easy.

I'm not wrong. And I said it in draft night.

Clarke is plainly superior to White. On offense and defense.

How is one plainly superior over the other?

You seem to forget one is 20 and the other is 24. White as a prospect From both an age and skill perspective has a lot more room to grow over Clarke.

Clarke’s biggest remaining issue is he can’t become a star. He’s a great role player but can’t generate his own offense and is undersized on defense. His skills translated to quick success but a peak ceiling.
Nothing wrong with that and it may prove better than Coby long term but we will have to wait and see.

[kodo]

Lots of advanced stats had him high.
538 had him 7th in their CARMELO projections
...

Yeah, but CARMELO had Bamba #1 in his class.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-most-promising-players-in-the-nba-draft-according-to-my-computer/

1 Mohamed Bamba 3 C 20.7 21.8 Greg Oden, Anthony Davis, Derrick Favors
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. 4 C 19.4 18.8 Myles Turner, Marquese Chriss, Derrick Favors
3 Deandre Ayton 1 C 20.5 17.3 Jahlil Okafor, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love
4 Zhaire Smith 16 SF 19.7 15.0 Brandan Wright, Malik Beasley, Kevon Looney
5 Wendell Carter Jr. 7 C 19.8 14.7 Noah Vonleh, Derrick Favors, Julius Randle

CARMELO had all these guys ahead of Trae Young & SGA.

It's easy to translate low-skill attributes like rebounding and dunking to the NBA level, but these type of players tend to be productive roleplayers in the NBA compared to the offensive coordinators or self-sufficient scorers. These guys are still key cogs to a good team, but it's not hard to get these kind of guys through trade or lower picks, compared to getting someone like Trae or SGA.

Nate Silver himself said he wouldn't take CARMELO's ranking over scouts.

As both an empirical and a philosophical matter, we think it’s hard to beat the consensus rankings of NBA scouts and franchises. NBA teams are smart these days: Many of them have projection systems that are at least as sophisticated as CARMELO, plus they have lots of other information that we can’t possibly account for. So if CARMELO disagrees with the consensus of NBA teams, we don’t necessarily want to take CARMELO’s side of the bet.

[Chicago-Bull-E]

Lots of advanced stats had him high.
538 had him 7th in their CARMELO projections
...

Yeah, but CARMELO had Bamba #1 in his class.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-most-promising-players-in-the-nba-draft-according-to-my-computer/

1 Mohamed Bamba 3 C 20.7 21.8 Greg Oden, Anthony Davis, Derrick Favors
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. 4 C 19.4 18.8 Myles Turner, Marquese Chriss, Derrick Favors
3 Deandre Ayton 1 C 20.5 17.3 Jahlil Okafor, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love
4 Zhaire Smith 16 SF 19.7 15.0 Brandan Wright, Malik Beasley, Kevon Looney
5 Wendell Carter Jr. 7 C 19.8 14.7 Noah Vonleh, Derrick Favors, Julius Randle

CARMELO had all these guys ahead of Trae Young & SGA.

It's easy to translate low-skill attributes like rebounding and dunking to the NBA level, but these type of players tend to be productive roleplayers in the NBA compared to the offensive coordinators or self-sufficient scorers. These guys are still key cogs to a good team, but it's not hard to get these kind of guys through trade or lower picks, compared to getting someone like Trae or SGA.

Nate Silver himself said he wouldn't take CARMELO's ranking over scouts.

As both an empirical and a philosophical matter, we think it’s hard to beat the consensus rankings of NBA scouts and franchises. NBA teams are smart these days: Many of them have projection systems that are at least as sophisticated as CARMELO, plus they have lots of other information that we can’t possibly account for. So if CARMELO disagrees with the consensus of NBA teams, we don’t necessarily want to take CARMELO’s side of the bet.

Yeah I don’t think anyone is arguing advanced stats paint the entire picture and should be gospel. I noted there were a lot of signs that Clarke was being slept on. I think that holds true with all the numbers I posted.

[samwana]

I think Melo is the least likely to bust. Guys with his size, ball handling, and passing skills always have a place in the NBA.

I don’t care how much cap space the Bulls have. A new GM isn’t going to change anything. Players want to win a championship. If the Bulls aren’t competing in the playoffs they aren’t signing a big free agent. Plain and simple.

So to you draft selection doesn't matter. What matters is if you are able to last in the NBA? So Kris Dunn going #5 is still a good pick because he still has a place in the NBA?

Nope. I value elite/unique skills and the positive impact they bring to the team. Dunn’s elite skill is defense which isn’t a unique/valuable enough skill set. Guys like David Nwaba and Shaq Harrison can be picked up for pennies.

Can you name a player with Ball’s size, ball handling, and passing skill set that’s flopped in the NBA?

Michael Carter Williams

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[MrFortune3]

Brandon Clarke is a monster. Depending on what a team needs, but I think most teams would take Clarke and the 15 million a year to spend elsewhere over Lavine. Clarke has the highest production rating and net rating on the Grizzlies according to 82games, as a rookie! His advanced numbers crush anything WCJ has done so far in his career.

What’s funny about Clarke is his advanced college numbers were off the charts. All the signs to be a very good player were there. Teams just ignored them and cited age.

If the Bulls could somehow guarantee getting Edwards (not really feasible), I’d probably trade Lavine for Clarke.

White
Edwards
Clarke
Lauri
WCJ

Really great balance on that team, will be really tough defensively, if Edwards can create for himself, watch out.

Clarke plus asset over Lavine, who is on great contract??? stop smoking weed, bro..

It’s not weed

[MrFortune3]

Clarke was clearly better than White as a prospect. That was botched.

You are clearly wrong. It is a close call to the point where there would be a good split depending on the GM, but there is no “clearly better” for Clarke as a prospect over White.

The botched piece was that he could have been had for very little. Bulls should have jumped on him as he was dropping, but so should have everyone.

The draft isn’t easy.

I'm not wrong. And I said it in draft night.

Clarke is plainly superior to White. On offense and defense.

Nothing was botched. We have no need for Clarke. We needed a PG who can create their own offense.

[TheHrvReport]

Why are we spending so much time talking about a player we don't have?

[Jvaughn]

Why are we spending so much time talking about a player we don't have?

Just based off the BR trade ideas article. I didn't expect for Lavine to get valued so low on our board though. I half expect people here would trade a late 1st in this draft for him at this point.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

A lot of draft twitter (notably the Stepien guys) had Clarke graded out as a better prospect than Coby. Obviously NBA GMs didn’t for the most part, but this wouldn’t be the first time the fringe analysts beat the pros on scouting. It’s why a few of those guys (e.g. Cole Zwicker) have been scooped up for FO jobs.

[wonderboy2]

I would still take Coby over Clarke. Coby arguably was about to have a better season then Clarke if he would’ve continued playing like he did toward the end of the season. Coby is 3 years younger than Clarke also.

[Grodoboldo]

Man, Clarke and MPJ permeate every thread in this board.

Let it go, people. GarPax are gone.

[GimmeDat]

No, it's not a competitive offer at all. It literally makes no sense for the Bulls.
My point in picking Harrison Barnes as an example is that Barnes would be viewed in a similar vein to LaVine in terms of contract parameters you would have to use to sign him into your cap space as a FA.
If a guy like him costs that much, the player you get for that 15 mil + Clarke is not going to be comparable to LaVine alone. Cap space and flexibility does the Bulls no good.

We've gone down this road before. We need players and to develop talent. In today's NBA, someone will always been looking to trade a player with a bigger contract. But no one is going to sign in Chicago without talent already there.

A guy like him, in general, does not cost that much though. If he was on the open market right now, I would be dumbfounded if Harrison Barnes got a 4/85 deal. It's not a reasonable measuring stick.

Again, I never advocated for the deal. My opinion is, if we trade anyone, trade Lauri. But it's wrong to just completely dismiss this from a value standpoint.

Thad Young cost 13.6 mil per just last season. Guys like Brogdon, Rubio, Valanciunas, Randle, Bogdanovic, Rozier, Barnes all signed for 15 mil per or better. Most of them were 17-21 mil per. There is no way in hell you're signing a player for 15 mil that is even baseline as good as LaVine, much less better.

It's pretty easy to dismiss because it makes no sense and the value is not commiserate. People have this weird hang up about LaVine and what his value is. It's far more than Clarke and some cap space.

You're hand picking guys that went to absolute bottom feeder teams once the market for the good players had dried up (apart from Brogdon, he's a stud).

We can agree to disagree. I've been a long time defender of Lavine on this board amidst the silly hate. But you're vastly underestimating how good Clarke is, the disparity in long term control, and the value of cap space.

[nomorezorro]

Just based off the BR trade ideas article. I didn't expect for Lavine to get valued so low on our board though. I half expect people here would trade a late 1st in this draft for him at this point.

the people who are posting good things about brandon clarke like him way way way way more than a late first round pick in a crappy draft!

[nomorezorro]

(people write over the top effusive praise for brandon clarke) wow some folks on this board really hate zach lavine huh!

[MGB8]

Memphis cratered when, due to injury, they downgraded from JJJ to Clarke. Folks here are deluded as to Clarke’s value.