Lauri Markkanen Discussion Thread

[PaKii94]

Frankly, it's not surprising they run the most plays for him. He's one of their best scorers and relies on the system for his touches. Lavine/Coby can get theirs without the system. and I agree. im all for Lauri at 16 PPG if it's for the good of the team but it's frustrating when Coby is getting the same amount of focus when his efficiency is 10% lower.

I'm super frustrated with Coby White. I think the Bulls definitely have to consider how long they want to keep allowing Coby to play this way with the results it is generating.

"The plays that don't yield a good look for him" are very guard/system dependent. the timing is key. The timing isn't there with the starting lineup (i.e. coby). It's there with the bench and that's why he's producing more from the bench. Now that Lavine is taking more of the playmaking role (and things have started to click with him), we are starting to see more Lauri usage with the starting group which is encouraging.

It is partially that, as I said, Chris Paul would definitely get Lauri more good looks, but that would be more due to Paul's greatness. Lauri isn't a guy who creates the same type of separation or is as easy to feed more looks to as a superstar type player. I mean obviously he's getting a pretty healthy amount of looks now, it isn't like trying to generate looks for a scrub either.

See I agree with that. My argument has never been Lauri will be a superstar with x,y,z. It's all about maximizing what he has. That's why my ask isn't even CP3. It's just competent playmaking. That's why I said Lauri with more looks doesn't change his overall ceiling. It wouldn't be a fundamental change to his game. It's just taking more advantage of the missed opportunities. What's encouraging is even with the current flaws, he's still at 23ppg @ 64TS% p36. just minor changes would bring him above 25ppg p36.

Agree the system is much better, and I think it has gotten much better as the season has progressed too. It is worth remembering there was a very short preseason, very few practices to date, tons of guys missing time due to COVID contact tracing (including Lauri), a new coach, etc... I'm actually incredibly impressed so far with how well Donovan has pieced things together so quickly and how much improvement we have seen in such a short time.

It's amazing how much difference a competent coach can make. Now we just need a competent PG and the bulls can start making waves.

[coldfish]

Just as a general note, while Lauri might be better with a whole team focused on maximizing his numbers, I'm not sure how much better the Bulls are in that situation.

OTOH, imagine if the Bulls had a creative big. Someone who could collapse the defense and find shooters. Personally, I think this, not PG is what is missing on the team offensively.

The Joker has a 47% assist rate. AD is only at 17% this year but that's not terrible. Embiid is at 15% and Giannis is at 27%. Lauri is at 5.8%, which is pathetic. He is a black hole.

Just imagine how much Coby, Lavine, Otto and Pat would benefit from a creative big. I think this is where the complaints about Lauri's post game and passing come from. Its also why a lot of people question him as a building block. I'm not sure if there has ever been a foundational high level player who passes as little as Lauri does.

[dougthonus]

One thing worth noting, and it's not here or there necessarily with Lauri, but is related to everything as a whole.

The offense is simply much better. The Bulls are 13th in offensive efficiency this year. Their totals are also much higher because their pace is much higher AND efficiency overall is much higher.

As a team, they are shooting the three really well (38.5%) which is opening up a lot more space for everyone too, making everyone's job easier.

Lauri / Zach have been the high volume super efficient players, but the Bulls actually have 8 rotation players right now with TS% over 59%. In fact, of regular rotation players, only Coby White (51%) and Denzel Valentine (55%) aren't at a prety amazing offensive efficiency.

If Coby's efficiency was actually good, this might be the #1 offense in the league.

[PerkinsFor3]

We're only making plans for Lauri
We only want what's best for him
We're only making plans for Lauri
Lauri just needs that helping hand
And if young Lauri says he's happy
He must be happy
He must be happy
He must be happy in his world
We're only making plans for Lauri
He has his future in a Bulls team
We're only making plans for Lauri
Lauri's whole future is as good as sealed
Yeah
And if young Lauri says he's happy
He must be happy
He must be happy
He must be happy in his world
Lauri is not outspoken
But he likes to speak
And loves to be spoken to (in his world)
Lauri is happy in his world (in his world)
Lauri is happy in his world (in his world)
We're only making plans for Lauri
We only want what's best for him
We're only making plans for Lauri
Lauri just needs this helping hand
And if young Lauri says he's happy
He must be happy
He must be happy
He must be happy in his world
We're only making plans for Lauri
We only want what's best for him
We're only making plans for Lauri
Lauri just needs this helping hand
We're only making plans for Lauri
He has his future in a Bulls team
Bulls, Bulls, Bulls, Bulls, Bulls,
We're only making plans for Lauri
Lauri, Lauri, Lauri, ...

[Stratmaster]

So you bumped 2 Lauri threads to say the same thing based on a 7 game sample size?

Don't be unfair dude! Maybe he is wrong but he made his homework with that deep and informative data research (I found it even enjoyable too). And of course he could point out if he think he was right.

Thanks. At least someone got use out of it.

Paki, can you at least change this thread title to "Lauri wanted out in 2020, not sure 2021" or something?

Sorry. I wasn't the OP on this thread.

You seem surprised.

Imma gonna have to set aside several hours to go back and find all the Lavine threads and comments about Lavine holding back Lauri.

You should. And also maybe you should go back and watch the f**king games without your internal bias. Just because Lavine is much better now mentally this year (I am #teamlavine now) doesn't absolve him from his poor play in the past. He WAS part of the problem last year. He's been a lot better this year. Frustratingly now that Lavine can play in the team concept, Coby decided the team can't go without a handicap so now he's taken over the role of bad shot selection/missed reads/blinders on playmaking.

I know. Every possesion Lauri doesn't score now is Coby's fault. Zach says "thanks Coby".

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[MGB8]

One thing worth noting, and it's not here or there necessarily with Lauri, but is related to everything as a whole.

The offense is simply much better. The Bulls are 13th in offensive efficiency this year. Their totals are also much higher because their pace is much higher AND efficiency overall is much higher.

As a team, they are shooting the three really well (38.5%) which is opening up a lot more space for everyone too, making everyone's job easier.

Lauri / Zach have been the high volume super efficient players, but the Bulls actually have 8 rotation players right now with TS% over 59%. In fact, of regular rotation players, only Coby White (51%) and Denzel Valentine (55%) aren't at a prety amazing offensive efficiency.

If Coby's efficiency was actually good, this might be the #1 offense in the league.

Ready to revisit your prior evaluation of Boylen, as “bad, but not that bad?”

[nomorezorro]

eye test: lauri is performing well now in part because he's been driving more, but i have no real confidence that he can reliably make shots inside. doesn't look super comfortable doing it, has shown flashes in the past only to have this part of his game disappear

stat check:

lauri fg% at rim, 20-21: 70.6% (18.9 ppg, 63.8% ts)

lauri fg% at rim, dec. 2019: 80.4% (17.6 ppg, 64.9% ts)
lauri fg% at rim, oct/nov/jan/march 19-20: 57.7% (11.8-17.4 ppg, 49-56.9% ts)

lauri fg% at rim, feb. 2019: 71.4% (26 ppg, 62% ts)
lauri fg% at rim, dec/jan/march 18-19: 58.9% (16.8-17.2 ppg, 41-54.4% ts)

basically...much like his elevated 3pt%, i think there's reason to be skeptical if he can keep this aspect of his game up until he does it over a longer time horizon

[nomorezorro]

also full disclosure, that's a super rudimentary analysis. doesn't taking volume into account, didn't break down as cleanly if you incorporated shots from 3-10 feet, his ft% was elevated in feb. 2019 but not dec. 2019, 3pt% was high in dec. 2019 but not feb. 2019, etc. etc.

i just don't think it's as simple as "lauri needs to be more aggressive and he'll elevate his game." he needs to maintain effectiveness, too, and i think that's far from a given

[PaKii94]

also full disclosure, that's a super rudimentary analysis. doesn't taking volume into account, didn't break down as cleanly if you incorporated shots from 3-10 feet, his ft% was elevated in feb. 2019 but not dec. 2019, 3pt% was high in dec. 2019 but not feb. 2019, etc. etc.

i just don't think it's as simple as "lauri needs to be more aggressive and he'll elevate his game." he needs to maintain effectiveness, too, and i think that's far from a given

That's a good breakdown. It also coincides with the portions of the seasons he is healthy vs when he is not. He is healthy now. If he continues to be healthy, I think it's a given. If he gets injured I also think it's a given he's gonna be pretty bad. It hinges on can he stay healthy? Past 3 years, a lot of freak injuries but if they keep happening that's a bad trend.

[PaKii94]

Don't be unfair dude! Maybe he is wrong but he made his homework with that deep and informative data research (I found it even enjoyable too). And of course he could point out if he think he was right.

Thanks. At least someone got use out of it.

Paki, can you at least change this thread title to "Lauri wanted out in 2020, not sure 2021" or something?

Sorry. I wasn't the OP on this thread.

Imma gonna have to set aside several hours to go back and find all the Lavine threads and comments about Lavine holding back Lauri.

You should. And also maybe you should go back and watch the f**king games without your internal bias. Just because Lavine is much better now mentally this year (I am #teamlavine now) doesn't absolve him from his poor play in the past. He WAS part of the problem last year. He's been a lot better this year. Frustratingly now that Lavine can play in the team concept, Coby decided the team can't go without a handicap so now he's taken over the role of bad shot selection/missed reads/blinders on playmaking.

I know. Every possesion Lauri doesn't score now is Coby's fault. Zach says "thanks Coby".

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

A lot of it is. I am really happy with Zach the scorer. I am content with Zach the playmaker now. I am also okay with Coby the scorer, consistency will come with time. I am super super frustrated with Coby the playmaker. It's sad because I was hyping Coby the playmaker>Zach the playmaker last year but zach has improved drastically while Coby has regressed with more volume/attention/usage.

And it's not just for Lauri but for Lavine too. If Coby can't be the playmaker, it forces Zach into a bigger on ball role. Which while he has improved, he still has a ways to go.

[Indomitable]

Just as a general note, while Lauri might be better with a whole team focused on maximizing his numbers, I'm not sure how much better the Bulls are in that situation.

OTOH, imagine if the Bulls had a creative big. Someone who could collapse the defense and find shooters. Personally, I think this, not PG is what is missing on the team offensively.

The Joker has a 47% assist rate. AD is only at 17% this year but that's not terrible. Embiid is at 15% and Giannis is at 27%. Lauri is at 5.8%, which is pathetic. He is a black hole.

Just imagine how much Coby, Lavine, Otto and Pat would benefit from a creative big. I think this is where the complaints about Lauri's post game and passing come from. Its also why a lot of people question him as a building block. I'm not sure if there has ever been a foundational high level player who passes as little as Lauri does.

I have always questioned his work ethic. He is not a grinder.

[coldfish]

Just as a general note, while Lauri might be better with a whole team focused on maximizing his numbers, I'm not sure how much better the Bulls are in that situation.

OTOH, imagine if the Bulls had a creative big. Someone who could collapse the defense and find shooters. Personally, I think this, not PG is what is missing on the team offensively.

The Joker has a 47% assist rate. AD is only at 17% this year but that's not terrible. Embiid is at 15% and Giannis is at 27%. Lauri is at 5.8%, which is pathetic. He is a black hole.

Just imagine how much Coby, Lavine, Otto and Pat would benefit from a creative big. I think this is where the complaints about Lauri's post game and passing come from. Its also why a lot of people question him as a building block. I'm not sure if there has ever been a foundational high level player who passes as little as Lauri does.

I have always questioned his work ethic. He is not a grinder.

I question the advice he gets. He has noticeably bulked up so I think he is working. I just think his inner circle gives him bad advice. They have turned him into a chucker.

On the floor, I see him more as confused than lazy. He seems to want to do the right thing but when you watch his head, he doesn't instinctively know what that is so he is always late. That's on everything from loose balls, to rebounds to help rotations. His lateness makes him look lazy but IMO, its a lack of decisiveness.

[dougthonus]

Ready to revisit your prior evaluation of Boylen, as “bad, but not that bad?”

I've said a few times on my podcast and in various forum posts, that Donovan has made a much bigger difference than I anticipated.

Sadly, the defense is a wreck under Donovan, and I do think that is largely due to his drop coverage scheme (but also ramping up the pace typically lowers defensive efficiency since both sides tend to get better looks too), but the players are much happier, playing better, and feel good. The overall impact is very positive.

[sco]

Just as a general note, while Lauri might be better with a whole team focused on maximizing his numbers, I'm not sure how much better the Bulls are in that situation.

OTOH, imagine if the Bulls had a creative big. Someone who could collapse the defense and find shooters. Personally, I think this, not PG is what is missing on the team offensively.

The Joker has a 47% assist rate. AD is only at 17% this year but that's not terrible. Embiid is at 15% and Giannis is at 27%. Lauri is at 5.8%, which is pathetic. He is a black hole.

Just imagine how much Coby, Lavine, Otto and Pat would benefit from a creative big. I think this is where the complaints about Lauri's post game and passing come from. Its also why a lot of people question him as a building block. I'm not sure if there has ever been a foundational high level player who passes as little as Lauri does.

I have always questioned his work ethic. He is not a grinder.

I question the advice he gets. He has noticeably bulked up so I think he is working. I just think his inner circle gives him bad advice. They have turned him into a chucker.

On the floor, I see him more as confused than lazy. He seems to want to do the right thing but when you watch his head, he doesn't instinctively know what that is so he is always late. That's on everything from loose balls, to rebounds to help rotations. His lateness makes him look lazy but IMO, its a lack of decisiveness.

I agree with your point about his advice...seems like it was partially Boylen and partially his "Finn team". That said, seems he got good advice this offseason, IIRC (can't find link) he said he was trying to not bulk up and I noticed for the first time last game that he seems thinner and less bulky.

I've said this from the beginning that Lauri should pattern his body and game like Durant. Obviously, he's not Durant, but I think that's a guy who he could successfully emulate.

[MGB8]

Ready to revisit your prior evaluation of Boylen, as “bad, but not that bad?”

I've said a few times on my podcast and in various forum posts, that Donovan has made a much bigger difference than I anticipated.

Sadly, the defense is a wreck under Donovan, and I do think that is largely due to his drop coverage scheme (but also ramping up the pace typically lowers defensive efficiency since both sides tend to get better looks too), but the players are much happier, playing better, and feel good. The overall impact is very positive.

See, I don't think the defense is fundamentally any worse, with two major exceptions - the lack of Dunn and Harrison as true defensive specialists / "plus factors."

What I mean by the defense not being fundamentally worse is that although, by the metrics, Boylen's defense was sort of better --- it wasn't a defense that "held up" under pressure, throughout the course of a game or even throughout the course of the season (with the exception, again, of Dunn and Shaq). Note also that last year, the Bulls gave up a 4th worst opponent 47.9% Opp FG% (currently at 5th worst 47.8% Opp FG%), a middling 17th 35.3 Opp 3pt% (now an 8th/9th worst .382 Opp 3pt% - though Opp 3pt% also up across the board about 1% [0.01] - meaning the drop-off is more like 2% rather than 3%, but still significant). And despite the faster pace (which largely explains the points), the Bulls actually have fewer Opp FTA this season than last (by about half a FT).

Back to the gimmick (though analytic based, and also heavily impacted by Dunn/Harrison) part of the Boylen defense, the Bulls were #1 in steals last season with 10 per game. This season they are a middling 12/13/14 with 7.9 per game (and pace adjusted, that may look worse). On the offensive end, but impacting the defense, the Bulls are currently 2nd worst in steals against them (9.4) though last year they weren't much better being 5th worst at 8.2 Opp Stl per game - and factoring in pace (and Coby starting, WCJr's putrid first few games, etc.)...

But those are overall stats - they aren't "crunch time" stats, or stats that take into account whether the team was getting blown out and how intensely the opponent was playing. The reality last season was that pretty much any time a quality opponent wanted to take a game out of reach - usually in the 3rd quarter - they would, and fairly easily. I wish there was a website that tracked "per quarter" stats - I think that looking at the 3rd quarter of games and the Bulls would be very telling.

[dougthonus]

But those are overall stats - they aren't "crunch time" stats, or stats that take into account whether the team was getting blown out and how intensely the opponent was playing. The reality last season was that pretty much any time a quality opponent wanted to take a game out of reach - usually in the 3rd quarter - they would, and fairly easily. I wish there was a website that tracked "per quarter" stats - I think that looking at the 3rd quarter of games and the Bulls would be very telling.

It doesn't matter a whole lot, but in the end, the overall numbers are what they are.

The idea that teams just don't try to score most of the game and score at the end at will just doesn't really fly to me. The Bulls still got a good amount of stops at the end, its just that they couldn't score. Even their crunch time defense looked much better than this Bulls crunch time defense to me.

There are some real factors in the numbers though. Boylen slowed the game down a lot, so both sides played more possessions in the half court. Even though efficiency numbers are rate adjusted, the quality of looks in transition vs half court means this still lowers offensive efficiency and increases defensive efficiency for both teams generally, so I think that way his numbers were juiced a bit.

I don't think he really had better defenders per se. I mean Dunn/Harrison were there, but they combined to play less total minutes than Zach LaVine last season. I'm not sure that's so much different than having Temple out there and Wendell Carter for all the games (whom was missing for a ton of the season too). I think the personnel is largely a wash.

Either way, not too relevant. The team is much better. Our defense probably isn't quite as bad as the numbers for the opposite reason of what I noted above, and our offense may actually be as good as the numbers, because it was really bad the first few games which balances out the artificial increases.

[MGB8]

Just as a general note, while Lauri might be better with a whole team focused on maximizing his numbers, I'm not sure how much better the Bulls are in that situation.

OTOH, imagine if the Bulls had a creative big. Someone who could collapse the defense and find shooters. Personally, I think this, not PG is what is missing on the team offensively.

The Joker has a 47% assist rate. AD is only at 17% this year but that's not terrible. Embiid is at 15% and Giannis is at 27%. Lauri is at 5.8%, which is pathetic. He is a black hole.

Just imagine how much Coby, Lavine, Otto and Pat would benefit from a creative big. I think this is where the complaints about Lauri's post game and passing come from. Its also why a lot of people question him as a building block. I'm not sure if there has ever been a foundational high level player who passes as little as Lauri does.

I have always questioned his work ethic. He is not a grinder.

I question the advice he gets. He has noticeably bulked up so I think he is working. I just think his inner circle gives him bad advice. They have turned him into a chucker.

On the floor, I see him more as confused than lazy. He seems to want to do the right thing but when you watch his head, he doesn't instinctively know what that is so he is always late. That's on everything from loose balls, to rebounds to help rotations. His lateness makes him look lazy but IMO, its a lack of decisiveness.

I think you are right - but I think that also gives room for optimism. Good coaching and playing under that coaching may well correct a lot of the mental issues that we are seeing, at least over time.

For me, Lauri is a 4/5 who in fact does have the footspeed to defend most opposing 4s (though not the true small ball SF's playing as 4s). I also think that strength inside is largely overrated in the current NBA because of the ability to use zone concepts and the NBA allowing more physical play inside than they do on the perimeter.

His negative marks are some "frailty" issues (significant, though not as bad, at least to date, as, say, Otto Porter) and the lack of elite speed and explosion (but note Sabonis, who is no faster or more explosive, is putting up ~22p/12.5r/5.5a perG/per36 with good defense, mostly at the 4).

The biggest thing with Lauri is expectations --- and how much you pay to retain him. While he is naturally skilled, he's not, as some had hoped he was coming in, some superlatively skilled player in the mold of Dirk. But he's also not, as some had feared, a "stiff" along the lines of Meyers Leonard. And he appears more well rounded than Ryan Anderson was - something that wasn't evident with the way that Boylen used him, but is more evident now.

But how much do you pay per year for a pretty good but not elite offensive big who is fairly poor (but may well get up to average) on defense, and, unlike some other "good but note elite" 4s, can't really create for himself? Basically a slightly better version of Davis Bertans - Lauri slightly bigger, slightly less quick, more offensively versatile, but not quite as good a shooter from range.

Bertans signed for 5 years 80 Mil, but with last year non-guaranteed - though conditionally up to 5M - a 16M/year annual average with a team friendly final year. And many thought that was a significant overpay, but one that a bad DC team "had to" make.

[kapo]

I have always questioned his work ethic. He is not a grinder.

I question the advice he gets. He has noticeably bulked up so I think he is working. I just think his inner circle gives him bad advice. They have turned him into a chucker.

On the floor, I see him more as confused than lazy. He seems to want to do the right thing but when you watch his head, he doesn't instinctively know what that is so he is always late. That's on everything from loose balls, to rebounds to help rotations. His lateness makes him look lazy but IMO, its a lack of decisiveness.

I agree with your point about his advice...seems like it was partially Boylen and partially his "Finn team". That said, seems he got good advice this offseason, IIRC (can't find link) he said he was trying to not bulk up and I noticed for the first time last game that he seems thinner and less bulky.

I've said this from the beginning that Lauri should pattern his body and game like Durant. Obviously, he's not Durant, but I think that's a guy who he could successfully emulate.

I don't think Finns has nothing to do with the advices to bulk up. We finns still remember how agile Lauri was before he went overseas...

[sco]

I question the advice he gets. He has noticeably bulked up so I think he is working. I just think his inner circle gives him bad advice. They have turned him into a chucker.

On the floor, I see him more as confused than lazy. He seems to want to do the right thing but when you watch his head, he doesn't instinctively know what that is so he is always late. That's on everything from loose balls, to rebounds to help rotations. His lateness makes him look lazy but IMO, its a lack of decisiveness.

I agree with your point about his advice...seems like it was partially Boylen and partially his "Finn team". That said, seems he got good advice this offseason, IIRC (can't find link) he said he was trying to not bulk up and I noticed for the first time last game that he seems thinner and less bulky.

I've said this from the beginning that Lauri should pattern his body and game like Durant. Obviously, he's not Durant, but I think that's a guy who he could successfully emulate.

I don't think Finns has nothing to do with the advices to bulk up. We finns still remember how agile Lauri was before he went overseas...

I suspect there is someone over there who was involved in it because he came back after his rookie and soph years bulkier after spending time over there. I'm not saying the stupidity didn't belong with the Bulls trainers because they should have been leading his training and I would see pic after pic in the Bulls training facility of Lauri pumping and flexing.

[Indomitable]

I have always questioned his work ethic. He is not a grinder.

I question the advice he gets. He has noticeably bulked up so I think he is working. I just think his inner circle gives him bad advice. They have turned him into a chucker.

On the floor, I see him more as confused than lazy. He seems to want to do the right thing but when you watch his head, he doesn't instinctively know what that is so he is always late. That's on everything from loose balls, to rebounds to help rotations. His lateness makes him look lazy but IMO, its a lack of decisiveness.

I think you are right - but I think that also gives room for optimism. Good coaching and playing under that coaching may well correct a lot of the mental issues that we are seeing, at least over time.

For me, Lauri is a 4/5 who in fact does have the footspeed to defend most opposing 4s (though not the true small ball SF's playing as 4s). I also think that strength inside is largely overrated in the current NBA because of the ability to use zone concepts and the NBA allowing more physical play inside than they do on the perimeter.

His negative marks are some "frailty" issues (significant, though not as bad, at least to date, as, say, Otto Porter) and the lack of elite speed and explosion (but note Sabonis, who is no faster or more explosive, is putting up ~22p/12.5r/5.5a perG/per36 with good defense, mostly at the 4).

The biggest thing with Lauri is expectations --- and how much you pay to retain him. While he is naturally skilled, he's not, as some had hoped he was coming in, some superlatively skilled player in the mold of Dirk. But he's also not, as some had feared, a "stiff" along the lines of Meyers Leonard. And he appears more well rounded than Ryan Anderson was - something that wasn't evident with the way that Boylen used him, but is more evident now.

But how much do you pay per year for a pretty good but not elite offensive big who is fairly poor (but may well get up to average) on defense, and, unlike some other "good but note elite" 4s, can't really create for himself? Basically a slightly better version of Davis Bertans - Lauri slightly bigger, slightly less quick, more offensively versatile, but not quite as good a shooter from range.

Bertans signed for 5 years 80 Mil, but with last year non-guaranteed - though conditionally up to 5M - a 16M/year annual average with a team friendly final year. And many thought that was a significant overpay, but one that a bad DC team "had to" make.

Anderson before his girlfriends suicide was a better player. He actually had legit post game.