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Matas Progress Tracker

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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#321 » by Jstock12 » Wed Dec 4, 2024 11:47 am

eierluke wrote:Looking for the draft pick is one thing, OK.
But looking for what is best for Matas: we should keep Vuc. Vuc ain't Jokic but still is a "team1st" bigman role model for learning how to pass the ball.

That may be true, but the Bulls still need to prioritize accumulating as many assets as possible for the rebuild. Matas can learn the ball sharing secrets in the summer from Sabonis while they play for the Lithuanian national team 8-)
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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#322 » by Stratmaster » Wed Dec 4, 2024 4:39 pm

dougthonus wrote:
DASMACKDOWN wrote:Man if Matas can keep shooting his 3s at 37-38% its going to be tremendous for the team.

The thing that is an advantage is that he is a big target. Its like easy to find him for the 3 or the break. And he played it to perfection last night.

I do like what Billy has done with Matas in the absence of PWill.

But I still worry when PWill returns. No one wants to ice Matas and lose all the momentum he has in favor of more PWill.

AKME has to help Billy help himself. A move needs to be made with Vooch and Zach or whomever.


This team is bad, there's no reason you need to move anyone to play Matas. Every minute Philips plays could go to Matas instead. I'm certainly not opposed to trading a single player on this roster, but you should make the best trades at the best times vs worrying about how the existence of a better player on the roster may impact Matas.

As an example, if we could move Vuc for a single 2nd rounder now, but could get a late 1st for him in 2 months, I'd rather wait the 2 months even if this impacted Matas's playing time for two months. Obviously, it is unknowable how trade value will change over time, but I wouldn't rush a bad trade to open up minutes that's all, and good trades usually happen closer to the deadline when there is time pressure.


Meh. The team isn't bad. Unless you consider over half the teams in the league to be bad. One high quality (not even all star) big probably makes this a 50 win team. As is, they are a .500 team.

I agree that they could give Phillips minutes to Matas. I would rather they give Williams minutes to Matas, Phillips and Terry. I am all for the Bulls trading Williams at the first opportunity, if such an opportunity ever presents itself.
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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#323 » by dougthonus » Wed Dec 4, 2024 4:46 pm

Stratmaster wrote:Meh. The team isn't bad. Unless you consider over half the teams in the league to be bad. One high quality (not even all star) big probably makes this a 50 win team. As is, they are a .500 team.

I agree that they could give Phillips minutes to Matas. I would rather they give Williams minutes to Matas, Phillips and Terry. I am all for the Bulls trading Williams at the first opportunity, if such an opportunity ever presents itself.


We're 22nd in net rating and 20th in record. Maybe we're not bad relative to our conference, where yes, more than half the teams are bad.

Maybe we're splitting hairs over what "bad" is, but we aren't a .500 team, we're presently on pace for 33.5 wins while playing the much lighter EC schedule. We're 1-7 against the west. If we were in the west, we'd probably be on pace for 28 wins.
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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#324 » by DuckIII » Wed Dec 4, 2024 5:23 pm

We’re bad. The only reason anyone is talking about us being “good” is because this year’s EC is one of the worst conferences of my lifetime. Not the worst, but it’s up there. And that matters to determining the value of “making the playoffs” if your goal is to actually contend rather than to just hang onto personal favorites on the roster.

Even if we make the playoffs we are just the fastest turtles and still have no path to contention.
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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#325 » by Stratmaster » Wed Dec 4, 2024 8:31 pm

dougthonus wrote:
Stratmaster wrote:Meh. The team isn't bad. Unless you consider over half the teams in the league to be bad. One high quality (not even all star) big probably makes this a 50 win team. As is, they are a .500 team.

I agree that they could give Phillips minutes to Matas. I would rather they give Williams minutes to Matas, Phillips and Terry. I am all for the Bulls trading Williams at the first opportunity, if such an opportunity ever presents itself.


We're 22nd in net rating and 20th in record. Maybe we're not bad relative to our conference, where yes, more than half the teams are bad.

Maybe we're splitting hairs over what "bad" is, but we aren't a .500 team, we're presently on pace for 33.5 wins while playing the much lighter EC schedule. We're 1-7 against the west. If we were in the west, we'd probably be on pace for 28 wins.


Bulls are .500 when Lavine has played, and played one of the toughest schedules in the league. We have one of the 3 easiest schedules the rest of the season. Where do you get this "light" schedule from?

Net rating after 20 games with the schedule they had? I don't think you believe in that any more than I do. Talk to me about net rating at the 50 game mark.

EDIT: I just checked some SOS/RPI rankings to be sure I want dreaming this. I found 4 sites with formulas for SOS to date. The Bulls were either 2nd, 3rd or 4th toughest.

I found 2 sites ranking the remaining schedule. Both showed the Bulls with the easiest schedule the rest of the season.
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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#326 » by Stratmaster » Wed Dec 4, 2024 8:46 pm

DuckIII wrote:We’re bad. The only reason anyone is talking about us being “good” is because this year’s EC is one of the worst conferences of my lifetime. Not the worst, but it’s up there. And that matters to determining the value of “making the playoffs” if your goal is to actually contend rather than to just hang onto personal favorites on the roster.

Even if we make the playoffs we are just the fastest turtles and still have no path to contention.


Making the playoffs with no path to contention is not a bad team. It may not be what you want, but that isn't a bad team by any reasonable definition.
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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#327 » by dougthonus » Wed Dec 4, 2024 8:46 pm

Stratmaster wrote:Bulls are .500 when Lavine has played, and played one of the toughest schedules in the league. We have one of the 3 easiest schedules the rest of the season. Where do you get this "light" schedule from?


What are the records of all other teams if we only count the games they had no injuries? Off the top of my head we played the Grizzlies without Morant twice, the Jazz without Lauri, Pelicans without Zion, the nets recently without almost everyone.

Net rating after 20 games with the schedule they had? I don't think you believe in that any more than I do. Talk to me about net rating at the 50 game mark.


Sure, we can see where we are at the 50 game mark. I suspect it will not be at .500, but who knows.
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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#328 » by GoBlue72391 » Wed Dec 4, 2024 8:50 pm

Stratmaster wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
DASMACKDOWN wrote:Man if Matas can keep shooting his 3s at 37-38% its going to be tremendous for the team.

The thing that is an advantage is that he is a big target. Its like easy to find him for the 3 or the break. And he played it to perfection last night.

I do like what Billy has done with Matas in the absence of PWill.

But I still worry when PWill returns. No one wants to ice Matas and lose all the momentum he has in favor of more PWill.

AKME has to help Billy help himself. A move needs to be made with Vooch and Zach or whomever.


This team is bad, there's no reason you need to move anyone to play Matas. Every minute Philips plays could go to Matas instead. I'm certainly not opposed to trading a single player on this roster, but you should make the best trades at the best times vs worrying about how the existence of a better player on the roster may impact Matas.

As an example, if we could move Vuc for a single 2nd rounder now, but could get a late 1st for him in 2 months, I'd rather wait the 2 months even if this impacted Matas's playing time for two months. Obviously, it is unknowable how trade value will change over time, but I wouldn't rush a bad trade to open up minutes that's all, and good trades usually happen closer to the deadline when there is time pressure.


Meh. The team isn't bad. Unless you consider over half the teams in the league to be bad. One high quality (not even all star) big probably makes this a 50 win team. As is, they are a .500 team.

I agree that they could give Phillips minutes to Matas. I would rather they give Williams minutes to Matas, Phillips and Terry. I am all for the Bulls trading Williams at the first opportunity, if such an opportunity ever presents itself.

We're 4th in PPG, 9th in FG%, 6th in 3PT% and 3rd in attempts per game, have the 5th best TS%, and we're 1st in pace.

Yet we have a 41% win percentage in a spectacularly weak Eastern Conference. That shows how truly terrible our defense is, which for the record is 3rd worst in DRTG. If we even had just a below-average defense rather than a horrendous defense we might actually be able to make some noise this year.

Defense wins games and we have none.
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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#329 » by Stratmaster » Wed Dec 4, 2024 8:53 pm

dougthonus wrote:
Stratmaster wrote:Bulls are .500 when Lavine has played, and played one of the toughest schedules in the league. We have one of the 3 easiest schedules the rest of the season. Where do you get this "light" schedule from?


What are the records of all other teams if we only count the games they had no injuries? Off the top of my head we played the Grizzlies without Morant twice, the Jazz without Lauri, Pelicans without Zion, the nets recently without almost everyone.

Net rating after 20 games with the schedule they had? I don't think you believe in that any more than I do. Talk to me about net rating at the 50 game mark.


Sure, we can see where we are at the 50 game mark. I suspect it will not be at .500, but who knows.


I'm basing my opinion on who is on the court now. I didn't even mention Ball being out. The guy who has the highest individual net rating on the team. If you believe in net ratings, which to be clear, I don't put much stock in them.

Every arrow is pointing up for the Bulls right now. 2 previous all stars who are having the best seasons of their careers. Lonzo Ball back and seemingly healthy. Matas looking like he isn't just another guy. The easiest schedule left in the league.

Obviously a significant trade or injury changes that. I don't have a crystal ball...
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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#330 » by DuckIII » Wed Dec 4, 2024 9:29 pm

Stratmaster wrote:
DuckIII wrote:We’re bad. The only reason anyone is talking about us being “good” is because this year’s EC is one of the worst conferences of my lifetime. Not the worst, but it’s up there. And that matters to determining the value of “making the playoffs” if your goal is to actually contend rather than to just hang onto personal favorites on the roster.

Even if we make the playoffs we are just the fastest turtles and still have no path to contention.


Making the playoffs with no path to contention is not a bad team. It may not be what you want, but that isn't a bad team by any reasonable definition.


There are all sorts of definitions that can make a playoff team a bad team when more than half of the teams in the league make the playoffs. Negative point differentials, sub .500 winning records, and of course only reaching the playoffs because your conference was in a historically weak down period. All of these things have happened and will happen again.

Those are objectively reasonable definitions of being bad.
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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#331 » by Guru » Wed Dec 4, 2024 9:32 pm

Defense is the easiest thing for a team to improve. And the most likely.
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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#332 » by Stratmaster » Wed Dec 4, 2024 9:52 pm

DuckIII wrote:
Stratmaster wrote:
DuckIII wrote:We’re bad. The only reason anyone is talking about us being “good” is because this year’s EC is one of the worst conferences of my lifetime. Not the worst, but it’s up there. And that matters to determining the value of “making the playoffs” if your goal is to actually contend rather than to just hang onto personal favorites on the roster.

Even if we make the playoffs we are just the fastest turtles and still have no path to contention.


Making the playoffs with no path to contention is not a bad team. It may not be what you want, but that isn't a bad team by any reasonable definition.


There are all sorts of definitions that can make a playoff team a bad team when more than half of the teams in the league make the playoffs. Negative point differentials, sub .500 winning records, and of course only reaching the playoffs because your conference was in a historically weak down period. All of these things have happened and will happen again.

Those are objectively reasonable definitions of being bad.


Then half the teams in the best basketball league in the world are bad. That's not a reasonable definition. Even if comparing in context, it isn't a reasonable definition. It's an emotional reaction.

Average? Probably. Mediocre? Maybe. But bad?
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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#333 » by dougthonus » Wed Dec 4, 2024 10:25 pm

Stratmaster wrote:I'm basing my opinion on who is on the court now. I didn't even mention Ball being out. The guy who has the highest individual net rating on the team. If you believe in net ratings, which to be clear, I don't put much stock in them.


You aren't relying on the guy who didn't play for 2.5 years prior to this year and is only cleared to play around 15 minutes a game and can't do back to backs? I mean ok. Was anyone going into this season relying on Ball?

Every arrow is pointing up for the Bulls right now. 2 previous all stars who are having the best seasons of their careers. Lonzo Ball back and seemingly healthy. Matas looking like he isn't just another guy. The easiest schedule left in the league.

Obviously a significant trade or injury changes that. I don't have a crystal ball...


Hey, no one has a crystal ball, and every team is one injury away from being a whole different team. That said, their record at the moment is still on pace for a 33.5 win rate in the situation you described everything pointing up.
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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#334 » by Dez » Wed Dec 4, 2024 10:43 pm

Guru wrote:Defense is the easiest thing for a team to improve. And the most likely.


Not with this team or within the space of a season.

We're ass defensively now and we'll be ass defensively at the end of the season.
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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#335 » by DuckIII » Wed Dec 4, 2024 10:51 pm

Stratmaster wrote:
DuckIII wrote:
Stratmaster wrote:
Making the playoffs with no path to contention is not a bad team. It may not be what you want, but that isn't a bad team by any reasonable definition.


There are all sorts of definitions that can make a playoff team a bad team when more than half of the teams in the league make the playoffs. Negative point differentials, sub .500 winning records, and of course only reaching the playoffs because your conference was in a historically weak down period. All of these things have happened and will happen again.

Those are objectively reasonable definitions of being bad.


Then half the teams in the best basketball league in the world are bad.


Not every year. But bearing in mind that the general quality of the league - “the best basketball league in the world” - is irrelevant. To the extent you were under the impression I was stating the Bulls are bad relative to all other basketball teams on Earth, I was not.

I am referring to relative peer quality.

That's not a reasonable definition. Even if comparing in context, it isn't a reasonable definition. It's an emotional reaction.


It’s not at all emotional. Losing more than you win over the course of an entire season is bad. So is finishing the season with a negative point differential illustrating you were clearly worse than your opponents over the course of a full sample size. For example, right now we are 23rd in point differential. That is objectively bad.

I’ll give you that evaluating the strength of your conference is subjective, though not necessarily emotional.
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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#336 » by Stratmaster » Thu Dec 5, 2024 12:23 am

dougthonus wrote:
Stratmaster wrote:I'm basing my opinion on who is on the court now. I didn't even mention Ball being out. The guy who has the highest individual net rating on the team. If you believe in net ratings, which to be clear, I don't put much stock in them.


You aren't relying on the guy who didn't play for 2.5 years prior to this year and is only cleared to play around 15 minutes a game and can't do back to backs? I mean ok. Was anyone going into this season relying on Ball?

Every arrow is pointing up for the Bulls right now. 2 previous all stars who are having the best seasons of their careers. Lonzo Ball back and seemingly healthy. Matas looking like he isn't just another guy. The easiest schedule left in the league.

Obviously a significant trade or injury changes that. I don't have a crystal ball...


Hey, no one has a crystal ball, and every team is one injury away from being a whole different team. That said, their record at the moment is still on pace for a 33.5 win rate in the situation you described everything pointing up.


So your analysis is that they are on a 33.5 pace so that is how they will end up? No facts that might affect that analysis are meaningful? Your prediction is Lonzo Ball won't play a meaningful number of games. That's fair. It has a historical basis. Or maybe he will.

What about the other things I have mentioned?
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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#337 » by Stratmaster » Thu Dec 5, 2024 12:26 am

DuckIII wrote:
Stratmaster wrote:
DuckIII wrote:
There are all sorts of definitions that can make a playoff team a bad team when more than half of the teams in the league make the playoffs. Negative point differentials, sub .500 winning records, and of course only reaching the playoffs because your conference was in a historically weak down period. All of these things have happened and will happen again.

Those are objectively reasonable definitions of being bad.


Then half the teams in the best basketball league in the world are bad.


Not every year. But bearing in mind that the general quality of the league - “the best basketball league in the world” - is irrelevant. To the extent you were under the impression I was stating the Bulls are bad relative to all other basketball teams on Earth, I was not.

I am referring to relative peer quality.

That's not a reasonable definition. Even if comparing in context, it isn't a reasonable definition. It's an emotional reaction.


It’s not at all emotional. Losing more than you win over the course of an entire season is bad. So is finishing the season with a negative point differential illustrating you were clearly worse than your opponents over the course of a full sample size. For example, right now we are 23rd in point differential. That is objectively bad.

I’ll give you that evaluating the strength of your conference is subjective, though not necessarily emotional.


Point diff isn't meaningful at this point of the season unless you qualify it... which is what I am doing by talking about strength of schedule. If the Bulls played their first 10 games of the season against the 3 best teams in the league, and then didn't have to play any of them again, what good would point diff be?
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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#338 » by kodo » Thu Dec 5, 2024 1:00 am

I hope Patrick returning doesn't cut into Matas minutes, but not sure how that's possible especially with Lonzo back.

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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#339 » by sco » Thu Dec 5, 2024 1:12 am

kodo wrote:I hope Patrick returning doesn't cut into Matas minutes, but not sure how that's possible especially with Lonzo back.

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I'm most interested in seeing more minutes with Pat and Matas together.

I'm glad that Matas has taken steps forward since getting more minutes. Hopefully he would get Phillips' and Terry's minutes. Also, IDK why Zach, Coby (especially) and Vuc need more than 30 minutes per night.
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Re: Matas Progress Tracker 

Post#340 » by DuckIII » Thu Dec 5, 2024 1:35 am

Stratmaster wrote:
DuckIII wrote:
Stratmaster wrote:
Then half the teams in the best basketball league in the world are bad.


Not every year. But bearing in mind that the general quality of the league - “the best basketball league in the world” - is irrelevant. To the extent you were under the impression I was stating the Bulls are bad relative to all other basketball teams on Earth, I was not.

I am referring to relative peer quality.

That's not a reasonable definition. Even if comparing in context, it isn't a reasonable definition. It's an emotional reaction.


It’s not at all emotional. Losing more than you win over the course of an entire season is bad. So is finishing the season with a negative point differential illustrating you were clearly worse than your opponents over the course of a full sample size. For example, right now we are 23rd in point differential. That is objectively bad.

I’ll give you that evaluating the strength of your conference is subjective, though not necessarily emotional.


Point diff isn't meaningful at this point of the season unless you qualify it... which is what I am doing by talking about strength of schedule. If the Bulls played their first 10 games of the season against the 3 best teams in the league, and then didn't have to play any of them again, what good would point diff be?


Sample sizes matter. But aren’t we talking about the significance of making the playoffs and whether a team can accomplish that and still be bad? That’s what I was discussing, and it necessarily assumes the sample size of 82 games.
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