OT Bears 2019/20 season and beyond

[otwok]

I think Mitch could be a solid backup QB. But he is not starter material. He most definitely is not a Franchise QB. For every "look at that great pass" moment from Mitch there are 5 "oh my, this guy sucks" moments. He can play well in moments, but that is the difference between a starter and a reserve - consistency. At this point we should see some positive constants from Mitch which we don't.

[Stratmaster]

When you have a QB who has been left for dead by 90+% of the fandom, any sign of life is a big deal.

I don't know how to say it without coming off more aggressively than I mean it to be.

I think Mitch had a nice day against a bad defense. I still think he's one of the worst QBs in the NFL. I still think he has absolutely no chance to be a quality future starting QB. So I am happy for his win and decent performance, but for me a big deal would be something that changes my belief about what is possible in the future, and this didn't do that.

I still leave Mitch for dead. It doesn't mean I think he will be god awful every game the rest of the year and that the Bears will lose out, but it means I think there is no chance he's an above average starting QB nor do I think he's capable of being a caretaker QB with an elite defense.

The only possible way Mitch can succeed is to turn him loose. We saw a little of that yesterday.

If you do, he is going to throw some picks, but a lot of great QB's threw picks.

For Mitch to be succesful his stat line needs to read 3-5 td passes and 1 or 2 interceptions a game, with 70 yards rushing. But the int's need to be going for big plays, not flare passes in the shadow of your own goalposts.

He probably still won't make it, but it is the only chance you have with him. Let him gunsling and run the rest of the season and depending on the result you make your changes in the offseason.

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[Chicago-Bull-E]

A couple of interesting stats.

Mitch is 6th the league in lowest interception rate.

Bears have the most dropped passes in the NFL.

Lots of blame to go around.

[RedBulls23]

A couple of interesting stats.

Mitch is 6th the league in lowest interception rate.

Bears have the most dropped passes in the NFL.

Lots of blame to go around.

Feel like the drop passes are a mixture of receivers fault and also his inaccuracy.

I could be wrong, but I think a dropped pass is also when it hits a guys hands and is an incomplete pass. But if he throws it too high or low it can have an effect too. Plus he also has a tendency to not throw tight spirals. A wobbly ball is harder to catch.

[Betta Bulleavit]

A couple of interesting stats.

Mitch is 6th the league in lowest interception rate.

Bears have the most dropped passes in the NFL.

Lots of blame to go around.

Feel like the drop passes are a mixture of receivers fault and also his inaccuracy.

I could be wrong, but I think a dropped pass is also when it hits a guys hands and is an incomplete pass. But if he throws it too high or low it can have an effect too. Plus he also has a tendency to not throw tight spirals. A wobbly ball is harder to catch.

I think they mentioned yesterday (during the game) that Bears receivers have dropped 15 balls this season. As a Trubisky supporter, I’ve paid close attention to that particular stat and can tell you that I’ve clocked 11 that were flat out drops by the receivers. Balls that average receivers would have routinely caught. But his inaccuracy and overthrows get much more attention because that’s been the book on him.

I think the last two games have been a bit of a mixed bag to be honest. We’ve seen some of the inaccuracies that have plagued him. However, he’s thrown some straight beauties too. If this continues, we’re cooked because we no longer have margin for error. However, if he is turning a corner so to speak, this could get interesting.

[dougthonus]

The only possible way Mitch can succeed is to turn him loose. We saw a little of that yesterday.

If you do, he is going to throw some picks, but a lot of great QB's threw picks.

For Mitch to be succesful his stat line needs to read 3-5 td passes and 1 or 2 interceptions a game, with 70 yards rushing. But the int's need to be going for big plays, not flare passes in the shadow of your own goalposts.

He probably still won't make it, but it is the only chance you have with him. Let him gunsling and run the rest of the season and depending on the result you make your changes in the offseason.

I don't think that will help him any to be honest. I think it'd make things worse. His deep ball is terrible. I don't think throwing more of them will make him better, it will just further expose him. That timing is built up in practice not in games IMO.

For him to be much better, he's going to need to develop into a better QB. Make smarter reads, make more accurate throws. I think those things are done in the film room and practice. Turning him loose might help, and I certainly don't care if they try it, but I don't think it's the primary difference maker in whether he succeeds. I just think it makes it more obvious that he's a failure when that makes things dramatically worse.

[Chicago-Bull-E]

A couple of interesting stats.

Mitch is 6th the league in lowest interception rate.

Bears have the most dropped passes in the NFL.

Lots of blame to go around.

Feel like the drop passes are a mixture of receivers fault and also his inaccuracy.

I could be wrong, but I think a dropped pass is also when it hits a guys hands and is an incomplete pass. But if he throws it too high or low it can have an effect too. Plus he also has a tendency to not throw tight spirals. A wobbly ball is harder to catch.

You’re essentially taught at high school that if it hits your hands, you need to catch it, period. The stat is defined as drops, not qb inaccuracies for a reason.

Their receiving corp has never been good. Robinson is a very good possession receiver, but even he isn’t close to a guy like Brandon Marshall who Jay had. After Robinson, it’s a bunch of journeymen and draft picks that aren’t going to pan out. It’s a bottom 10 corp, maybe bottom 5.

It’s an issue that wasn’t addressed in the offseason and the team is paying for it. It’s ok to admit that.

[dice]

if you're looking for the miracle playoff berth, you should probably prefer the cowboys to lose to the vikings. would give the eagles (who the bears LOSE the tiebreaker to) a better shot at taking the division and would put the bears only a game behind the cowboys with a home game against them in week 14

Not sure if that ends up being true.

They need to pass one of the two seven win teams (Seahawks/Vikings) presently and hope none of the other teams between those teams and them pass them by even more.

Had the Vikings lost, they would have had to pass the Seahawks or whomever came out of the six/five win teams. The Eagles would have been equivalent of a six win team due to owning the tiebreaker which would have still been a better scenario than the Bears are in now IMO.

Assume Seattle is just gone.

They're effectively now need to pass:
2.5 games behind the Vikings (3 in win column)
1 game behind Dallas (tiebreaker pending)
1 game behind Rams (tiebreaker pending)
1 game behind Carolina (Bears probably win tiebreaker in a tie scenario)

Assuming Philly can take the division.

If Dallas had won instead of Minnesota, and we assume Dallas takes the division:
1 game behind Philly (but lose tie breaker so effectively 2)
1.5 games behind Vikings (2 in win column)
1 game behind Rams (tiebreaker pending)
1 game behind Carolina (Bears probably win tiebreaker in a tie scenario)

Effectively now they much chase down Minnesota or Seattle (along with everyone else whom are both three games up in the win column) instead of Philly whom is 1 game in the win column but they would need to beat out for the tiebreaker (though possibly a three way tie could give them the group tiebreaker).

Probably doesn't matter much one way or the other, but they're in a half game worse state now. Granted, they play one against Minnesota, so if they win that one, they're effectively 1.5 behind Minnesota (2 in the win column) which maybe makes it about even since you have to assume that the Bears need to win 6 of their 7 remaining games to stand a realistic chance.

At any rate, no matter how you slice it, the odds are pretty bleak. That missed FG against the Chargers really hurts as at 5-4, you'd have a lot more wiggle room to go 5-2 the rest of the way and still have a good chance instead of 6-1. Their odds would still be long, but they'd certainly be way more in the mix.

minnesota had a better chance at the playoffs heading into tonight than seattle (and seattle is losing 10-0 as i type this...oops, now 10-7)

i figured that if the bears couldn't overtake the 2nd place team in the nfc east, all hope is lost. and the easier team to overtake would be dallas given the tiebreaker scenarios. but you're right that the taller (and necessary) order of overtaking either seattle or minny became that much taller with the minnesota win

seattle's schedule is tough the rest of the way:

at eagles
vikings
at rams
at panthers
cards
niners

edit: hoo boy. after seattle win, 5 teams in the nfc now projected to win 11 games or more. add the automatic bid for the nfc east and looks like bears might have to win out now (which conceivably STILL won't get them in the playoffs)

[RedBulls23]

A couple of interesting stats.

Mitch is 6th the league in lowest interception rate.

Bears have the most dropped passes in the NFL.

Lots of blame to go around.

Feel like the drop passes are a mixture of receivers fault and also his inaccuracy.

I could be wrong, but I think a dropped pass is also when it hits a guys hands and is an incomplete pass. But if he throws it too high or low it can have an effect too. Plus he also has a tendency to not throw tight spirals. A wobbly ball is harder to catch.

You’re essentially taught at high school that if it hits your hands, you need to catch it, period. The stat is defined as drops, not qb inaccuracies for a reason.

Their receiving corp has never been good. Robinson is a very good possession receiver, but even he isn’t close to a guy like Brandon Marshall who Jay had. After Robinson, it’s a bunch of journeymen and draft picks that aren’t going to pan out. It’s a bottom 10 corp, maybe bottom 5.

It’s an issue that wasn’t addressed in the offseason and the team is paying for it. It’s ok to admit that.

Yes, I know that. Still how crisp a pass is can make a difference as well.

A tight spiral is going to be easier to catch than a ball that wobbles.

[Chi town]

A couple of interesting stats.

Mitch is 6th the league in lowest interception rate.

Bears have the most dropped passes in the NFL.

Lots of blame to go around.

Mitch’s placement sucks though too. He’s not 100% of the problem but close to it.

[Susan]

So of our tens of QB experts on this board, how many of you watched Jimmy G today?

[thedarkstark]

The issues with Mitch are plainly obvious to anyone who isn't named Matt Nagy, I've been saying it for 2 seasons and Dan Fouts (HOF QB) touched on it a lot during the past few broadcasts: he's being misused.

If you scheme your offense for Tom Brady the same way you scheme it for Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson, or Alex Smith then you're bound to fail. Mitch is a big athletic mobile quarterback who excels at throwing on the run. They need to run more bootlegs and play action to open up throwing lanes by forcing the defense to react to his mobility. He's not going to be an elite pocket passer, his mechanics aren't where they need to be, so why are they using him like one?

In addition to that the offensive line has been amongst the worst in football; near the top in sacks allowed, penalties taken, and fewest rushing yards. Also as mentioned Bears are tied for the league lead in dropped passes.

I don't think Mitch is a "franchise QB" but he's easily a middle of the pack top 16ish qb when utilized properly and while that's not ideal from you #2 overall pick, there are still 16 other teams that would love to have a guy like that. And quite frankly an "average qb" is probably good enough to break every single franchise passing record.

[dougthonus]

The issues with Mitch are plainly obvious to anyone who isn't named Matt Nagy, I've been saying it for 2 seasons and Dan Fouts (HOF QB) touched on it a lot during the past few broadcasts: he's being misused.

If you scheme your offense for Tom Brady the same way you scheme it for Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson, or Alex Smith then you're bound to fail. Mitch is a big athletic mobile quarterback who excels at throwing on the run. They need to run more bootlegs and play action to open up throwing lanes by forcing the defense to react to his mobility. He's not going to be an elite pocket passer, his mechanics aren't where they need to be, so why are they using him like one?

In addition to that the offensive line has been amongst the worst in football; near the top in sacks allowed, penalties taken, and fewest rushing yards. Also as mentioned Bears are tied for the league lead in dropped passes.

I don't think Mitch is a "franchise QB" but he's easily a middle of the pack top 16ish qb when utilized properly and while that's not ideal from you #2 overall pick, there are still 16 other teams that would love to have a guy like that. And quite frankly an "average qb" is probably good enough to break every single franchise passing record.

I agree with this. I think Mitch kind of sucks, but I definitely think more boot legs and play action would make him more effective than he currently is. Not sure if it'd get him to 16th best QB in the league, but it'd probably get him out of the conversation for worst starting QB in the league.

[dougthonus]

edit: hoo boy. after seattle win, 5 teams in the nfc now projected to win 11 games or more. add the automatic bid for the nfc east and looks like bears might have to win out now (which conceivably STILL won't get them in the playoffs)

I think the Bears would still have a decent chance at getting in if they get 10 wins and the loss is to the Chiefs (or someone else irrelevant).

It doesn't really matter, because I think the Bears will probably finish 7-9 or 8-8.

[Red Larrivee]

A couple of interesting stats.

Mitch is 6th the league in lowest interception rate.

Bears have the most dropped passes in the NFL.

Lots of blame to go around.

Interception rate doesn't tell me anything in this circumstance. Trubisky was dead last among qualified QBs in Y/A before this week. It's not difficult to avoid interceptions when the majority of your attempts are near the LOS.

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[thedarkstark]

The Bears won't win out but if they do I'm certain they'll make the playoffs. On excedingly rare ocassions 11-5 teams do miss the playoffs but there are bound to be a few teams that have a 2nd half meltdown due to injuries or just plain bad luck.

[ATRAIN53]

So of our tens of QB experts on this board, how many of you watched Jimmy G today?

He wasn't great but he didn't cost them the game.....

OT Game Wining drive and I thought it was gonna be Brady 101 with a handful of sideline passes, then trot the kicker out for 40 yarder and the W. Who called those plays and wasted the clock?

and the irony is we coveted their kicker and Gould is hurt now.

so they had to turn to a rookie and it cost them-

Even more bad clock management and another team that wasted a down when they could have moved the ball a few yards to get the kicker a better shot. a kicker who had never kicked a FG in OT. you get that kid every yard you can, ask Pinero.

[micromonkey]

He probably still won't make it, but it is the only chance you have with him. Let him gunsling and run the rest of the season and depending on the result you make your changes in the offseason.

YES!
I would think those that are haters and those who have hope--this would be a point all could agree on.
The don't Run Mitch and Shoop playcalling isn't cutting it...

I don't know about everyone else--but the older guys have to be yelling at their TVs and a whole lotta "shoop" bombs getting dropped
Ahh the F-ing shoop offense
Not another shoop sh*t pass
Nagy, John Shoop called-he wants his playbook back
Nagy--"Shoop" isn't the only Salt and Pepa song--at least try to "Push it" (and pushing it real good would be preferable)

I'm texting my brother like a teenage girl during the games to complain about the endless short passes--its unbelievable. Shoop and shooping have re-entered my vocabulary...been what 15 years?

[tgmxd]

He probably still won't make it, but it is the only chance you have with him. Let him gunsling and run the rest of the season and depending on the result you make your changes in the offseason.

YES!
I would think those that are haters and those who have hope--this would be a point all could agree on.
The don't Run Mitch and Shoop playcalling isn't cutting it...

I don't know about everyone else--but the older guys have to be yelling at their TVs and a whole lotta "shoop" bombs getting dropped
Ahh the F-ing shoop offense
Not another shoop sh*t pass
Nagy, John Shoop called-he wants his playbook back
Nagy--"Shoop" isn't the only Salt and Pepa song--at least try to "Push it" (and pushing it real good would be preferable)

I'm texting my brother like a teenage girl during the games to complain about the endless short passes--its unbelievable. Shoop and shooping have re-entered my vocabulary...been what 15 years?

People who watch the film say the bears plays have all kinds of deep shot options for Trubisky. For whatever reason he hasnt had the confidence to pull the trigger.

[molepharmer]

People who watch the film say the bears plays have all kinds of deep shot options for Trubisky. For whatever reason he hasnt had the confidence to pull the trigger.

That may very well be true but without knowing the read progression that Nagy's giving Mitch you can't put this all on Mitch. If Nagy wants the receiver reads short to long, Mitch may be taking the underneath routes first. On some plays it's clear the deep throw seems to be first option based on match up and defense alignment (e.g. Gabriel TD against Lions).

The Bears receiving corp stinks, except for AR. No TE worth a crap. A 5'8" 'deep' threat, a 5'9" rb and Miller/Wims, who either can't get open or Nagy always has as 2nd/3rd option, and C Patterson who has more runs than targets. I'm sure Rodgers/Brees/Brady could get something out of this ragtag group but MT ain't them.