OT: COVID-19 thread #2

[Dresden]

So it's possible that many, many more people have had the virus than is thought, and that the mortality rate is actually much lower than thought as well. Maybe on par with the flu. The difference is how quickly and easily this virus seems to spread. We've already had close to 40K deaths, and normally the flu only kills around 10-12K in a bad year.

[dice]

So it's possible that many, many more people have had the virus than is thought, and that the mortality rate is actually much lower than thought as well. Maybe on par with the flu. The difference is how quickly and easily this virus seems to spread. We've already had close to 40K deaths, and normally the flu only kills around 10-12K in a bad year.

flu kills a lot more than that:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

[Dresden]

So it's possible that many, many more people have had the virus than is thought, and that the mortality rate is actually much lower than thought as well. Maybe on par with the flu. The difference is how quickly and easily this virus seems to spread. We've already had close to 40K deaths, and normally the flu only kills around 10-12K in a bad year.

flu kills a lot more than that:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

In that case, maybe Corona will not kill any more than the seasonal flu does....in the same ballpark at least.

[dice]

So it's possible that many, many more people have had the virus than is thought, and that the mortality rate is actually much lower than thought as well. Maybe on par with the flu. The difference is how quickly and easily this virus seems to spread. We've already had close to 40K deaths, and normally the flu only kills around 10-12K in a bad year.

flu kills a lot more than that:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

In that case, maybe Corona will not kill any more than the seasonal flu does....in the same ballpark at least.

hopefully not much more, yeah. and people will probably be more mindful going forward, reducing seasonal flu deaths. but we'll probably have another (much reduced?) round of COVID-19 in the fall too. and although cases are no longer growing exponentially, it's still steady daily increases w/o close to adequate testing, so there's no indication that we'll be out of the woods soon

[dumbell78]

flu kills a lot more than that:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

In that case, maybe Corona will not kill any more than the seasonal flu does....in the same ballpark at least.

hopefully not much more, yeah. and people will probably be more mindful going forward, reducing seasonal flu deaths. but we'll probably have another (much reduced?) round of COVID-19 in the fall too. and although cases are no longer growing exponentially, it's still steady daily increases w/o close to adequate testing, so there's no indication that we'll be out of the woods soon

The recent Stanford study that just came out is fascinating, it lines up with the mortality rate being lot lower than many thought initially. I was talking to my wifes uncle two weeks ago and arguing that there are probably millions of ppl walking around that had it and didn't even realize it. This thing was running roughshod around the world for six weeks before ppl knew what was what. Taking antibodies is so critical.

Here is the link:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

At the time of the study, Santa Clara county had 1,094 confirmed cases of Covid-19, resulting in 50 deaths. But based on the rate of participants who have antibodies, the study estimates it is likely that between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara county by early April.
That also means coronavirus is potentially much less deadly to the overall population than initially thought. As of Tuesday, the US’s coronavirus death rate was 4.1% and Stanford researchers said their findings show a death rate of just 0.12% to 0.2%.

[Chi town]

So it's possible that many, many more people have had the virus than is thought, and that the mortality rate is actually much lower than thought as well. Maybe on par with the flu. The difference is how quickly and easily this virus seems to spread. We've already had close to 40K deaths, and normally the flu only kills around 10-12K in a bad year.

flu kills a lot more than that:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

In that case, maybe Corona will not kill any more than the seasonal flu does....in the same ballpark at least.

Again, it’s seems we still don’t much at all.

We need massive testing to really understand where we are and then how to proceed.

You’d think if millions have already had it w very minimal symptoms and normal immunity would happen then we’d be fine as a society.

I personally believe millions have and have had it. There just aren’t nearly enough tests.

[coldfish]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/

More tidbits of information that LOTS of people have had this. One neighborhood in Boston showed 33% with antibodies. Again, that's a whole lot more than what the current data shows. Like, at the time, 50x.

This is going to prove itself out. NYC metro is approaching 0.1% deaths. If there really is a super low death rate, they have to be at herd immunity levels or close to it. If you can get immunity AND its a low death rate, NYC's cases are just going to stop very soon. If it just continues on then we have to worry that immunity isn't possible or that the death rate is much higher than 0.1%.

As another note, counting deaths is much harder than people make it out to be. Sure, if its an otherwise healthy 30 year old who dies due to pneumonia while testing positive for covid, that's easy to classify. Most of the deaths are people who were in bad shape already though. There are lots of anecdotal stories of people being tagged as covid deaths who probably weren't floating around. If we are going to tag every 80+ year old who dies of natural causes as a covid death than we are going to permanently have a lot of covid deaths.

[Chi town]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/

More tidbits of information that LOTS of people have had this. One neighborhood in Boston showed 33% with antibodies. Again, that's a whole lot more than what the current data shows. Like, at the time, 50x.

This is going to prove itself out. NYC metro is approaching 0.1% deaths. If there really is a super low death rate, they have to be at herd immunity levels or close to it. If you can get immunity AND its a low death rate, NYC's cases are just going to stop very soon. If it just continues on then we have to worry that immunity isn't possible or that the death rate is much higher than 0.1%.

As another note, counting deaths is much harder than people make it out to be. Sure, if its an otherwise healthy 30 year old who dies due to pneumonia while testing positive for covid, that's easy to classify. Most of the deaths are people who were in bad shape already though. There are lots of anecdotal stories of people being tagged as covid deaths who probably weren't floating around. If we are going to tag every 80+ year old who dies of natural causes as a covid death than we are going to permanently have a lot of covid deaths.

These incoming tests would confirm China’s leaked massacre too. They’d be in the tens of millions of infected and hundreds of thousands of deaths.

[JimmyButler21]

So it's possible that many, many more people have had the virus than is thought, and that the mortality rate is actually much lower than thought as well. Maybe on par with the flu. The difference is how quickly and easily this virus seems to spread. We've already had close to 40K deaths, and normally the flu only kills around 10-12K in a bad year.

flu kills a lot more than that:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

In that case, maybe Corona will not kill any more than the seasonal flu does....in the same ballpark at least.

COVID-19 has already killed 40,000 in the United States in about a month span and that's with extreme social distancing being taken. It's nothing like the flu.

[AKfanatic]

flu kills a lot more than that:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

In that case, maybe Corona will not kill any more than the seasonal flu does....in the same ballpark at least.

COVID-19 has already killed 40,000 in the United States in about a month span and that's with extreme social distancing being taken. It's nothing like the flu.

Yeah that’s the scary part.

There will be those that attempt to paint the social distancing and closing things down extreme “because it killed about the same #’s as the flu” while completely ignoring that those numbers would be much much higher had those steps not been taken.

We’d likely be looking at 100k deaths right now without closing things and distancing.

It could’ve been treated like the flu, if there was an existing “covid shot”....

[coldfish]

flu kills a lot more than that:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

In that case, maybe Corona will not kill any more than the seasonal flu does....in the same ballpark at least.

COVID-19 has already killed 40,000 in the United States in about a month span and that's with extreme social distancing being taken. It's nothing like the flu.

People struggle with the flu comparison. There are two aspects to it, the fatality rate and the infection rate. The fatality rate may or may not be similar to the flu but the infection rate is definitely much, much higher than the flu.

I will note that the vast majority of those 40k people who died were infected before the lockdowns really kicked into place. The lag time from infection to death is pretty significant. We won't know how effective our lockdowns have been for a little bit. Hopefully the death rate comes way down.

[2018C3]

.

[2018C3]

Smart people have been preparing for something like this for years, and others always assume someone will be there to protect them.

I knew people who were preparing for something like this for the last 25 years. I have had several co-workers who were storing food and water to last them though events like this. Back then everyone thought they were crazy, but now people are starting to see that the prepper's are not crazy. They have been telling the rest of us this would happen for years. Most just refused to listen.

No they're still crazy.

Most of the people I know do not, but the reason my post was made, is right before it I watched a youtube video that was recommended to me about prepers and covid-19, and how they prepared for a situation like this,

Looking back the people who did this are smart even though they have suffered through ridicule over the years. Looking back, they are the ones who were prepared for this type of situation.

Its always smart to keep at least a month or two supply of food handy. A close family member I have always kept stock of a three month supply of food that does not go bad. With todays packaging its not a hard thing to do, and it really does not take up that much space.

And to tell you the truth, I am not a prepper.

[Dez]

Smart people have been preparing for something like this for years, and others always assume someone will be there to protect them.

I knew people who were preparing for something like this for the last 25 years. I have had several co-workers who were storing food and water to last them though events like this. Back then everyone thought they were crazy, but now people are starting to see that the prepper's are not crazy. They have been telling the rest of us this would happen for years. Most just refused to listen.

No they're still crazy.

Most of the people I know do not, but the reason my post was made, is right before it I watched a youtube video that was recommended to me about prepers and covid-19, and how they prepared for a situation like this,

Looking back the people who did this are smart even though they have suffered through ridicule over the years. Looking back, they are the ones who were prepared for this type of situation.

Its always smart to keep at least a month or two supply of food handy. A close family member I have always kept stock of a three month supply of food that does not go bad. With todays packaging its not a hard thing to do, and it really does not take up that much space.

And to tell you the truth, I am not a prepper.

I'll tell you how I prepared.

- Go to supermarket
- Buy things I need
- Go home

I'm now as prepared as those preppers.

[Dresden]

flu kills a lot more than that:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

In that case, maybe Corona will not kill any more than the seasonal flu does....in the same ballpark at least.

COVID-19 has already killed 40,000 in the United States in about a month span and that's with extreme social distancing being taken. It's nothing like the flu.

Optimistic projections say death toll in the US may be around 60K. that would put it in the same ballpark as the seasonal flu in a bad year. yes, the difference is that social distancing and lockdowns are needed to keep the COVID death toll at 60K, whereas we don't do any of that with the flu. So there is a difference there. But if we are able to keep the death toll to around 60K, when all this is over, we can say that at least in terms of the mortality rate, this outbreak will be in line with what we've had with a really bad flu season.

The economic toll the virus is taking is another story. I don't know what the final number is going to be, but the bailout package is already twice what was spent in 2008, so it could be a couple of trillion just for the bailout, not including all the other economic costs.

But on the other hand, if some of these early anti-body tests prove to be accurate, the mortality rate of the virus might also not be much worse than the seasonal flu. We're a long way of saying that right now, but it's possible, if further testing reveals that number of infections that we've seen in the tests in Chelsea and Santa Clara.

[Chi town]

Anyone get $ for their small business or non profit before it ran out?

[JimmyButler21]

In that case, maybe Corona will not kill any more than the seasonal flu does....in the same ballpark at least.

COVID-19 has already killed 40,000 in the United States in about a month span and that's with extreme social distancing being taken. It's nothing like the flu.

People struggle with the flu comparison. There are two aspects to it, the fatality rate and the infection rate. The fatality rate may or may not be similar to the flu but the infection rate is definitely much, much higher than the flu.

I will note that the vast majority of those 40k people who died were infected before the lockdowns really kicked into place. The lag time from infection to death is pretty significant. We won't know how effective our lockdowns have been for a little bit. Hopefully the death rate comes way down.

Not to mention the fact that perfectly healthy people are carrying this virus and unknowingly passing it on to vulnerable people which is different than a flu.

[Dresden]

Anyone get $ for their small business or non profit before it ran out?

I'm in an email thread with 6 other small contractors, of the 7 of us, 2 got approved, the rest did not. We're hopeful though that since we're all in the queue, with applications turned it, that when this new money gets allocated, we'll all get approved.

By the numbers, they say 1.6 million loans were approved before the money ran out, totaling around 342 billion. And there were 800K more applications received. So if another 310 B goes through on this new bill, it should fund the rest of us who have already turned in applications. So I"m hopeful, but nothing is certain until you get the notice. It's such a huge deal for a small or mid sized business, to know that you'll have the money to pay your employees for 2 months of inactivity (not to mention how crucial it is for the employees).

I think if these programs had been rolled out sooner, and more efficiently, we wouldn't be seeing the kinds of protests we're seeing right now- which I imagine are mainly being staged by people who are upset over the economic burden they are being put under.

[thedarkstark]

My uncle passed away over the weekend from Covid-19, he was 65 years old and a Viet Nam war veteran.

Not looking for condolonces just want everyone out there to stay safe, this is not the flu please stop downplaying it. My uncle aside from being a bit overweight was in very good health. 10 days with a 103 fever, hopsitalized placed on oxygen for 3 days, spent 2 days in ICU on ventilator in a medically induced coma then passed on.

If you have loved ones over the age of 50 please take all precautions to protect them.

[Ccwatercraft]

Anyone get $ for their small business or non profit before it ran out?

I'm in an email thread with 6 other small contractors, of the 7 of us, 2 got approved, the rest did not. We're hopeful though that since we're all in the queue, with applications turned it, that when this new money gets allocated, we'll all get approved.

By the numbers, they say 1.6 million loans were approved before the money ran out, totaling around 342 billion. And there were 800K more applications received. So if another 310 B goes through on this new bill, it should fund the rest of us who have already turned in applications. So I"m hopeful, but nothing is certain until you get the notice. It's such a huge deal for a small or mid sized business, to know that you'll have the money to pay your employees for 2 months of inactivity (not to mention how crucial it is for the employees).

I think if these programs had been rolled out sooner, and more efficiently, we wouldn't be seeing the kinds of protests we're seeing right now- which I imagine are mainly being staged by people who are upset over the economic burden they are being put under.

I'm in a similar thread, and in touch with some rotary friends. Out of 10 that I know only 3 for sure were approved, 7 in the queue.

If/when round 2 rolls out the ones I'm the most curious about are the ones that havent lost income yet, but applied because
1) hey. Free money
1a) hey, even if not free its Super cheap
2) Long term we will likely lose $ just not immediately.

Those that weren't immediately desperate but that got a jump on the paperwork might be the reason that some of the companies that are really hurting might get nothing or experience delays because they were a tad slow on the draw.