Bulls Covid related stuff: Everyone out but Caruso who just entered

[Michael Jackson]

Because it seems the mechanism Omicron uses to attach to cells is different than previous variants, I wonder if a new vaccine that is Omicron specific may be developed eventually.

Maybe but at the rate this is moving, and it is moving faster than the reports, just like we saw a 7% rate when the Bulls got shut down to a 73% the next week, I just think it moves to fast to justify a vaccine. It will have passed through everyone by that point. Now building a bad off of it for future variants that are similar will likely happen

[Michael Jackson]

We will see how it changes with Omicron, the sad news is that since around Sept 1st (about 4 full months now) we're averaging a mortality rate that would be around 500k deaths a year from COVID which is a tick below Heart Disease and Cancer (600k or so each) but more than triple the next leading causes.

According to my quick google search, Omicron is now about 56% of cases, given that it just got here a month ago, odds are that it will be nearly 100% of cases shortly (much like Delta took over) and if that happens we'll find out in maybe 3 months what the mortality rate looks like.

My hope is that it falls, because at its current level, I suspect we'll still be at significant restrictions, but hopefully the combination of boosters, vaccination rate increases, natural immunity from infection, and a less deadly dominant strain will combine to give us a much lower mortality rate going forward.

One thing to keep in mind is that if Omicron mutates into something more deadly while keeping it's contagious behavior and still being resistant to vaccines then things could turn worse really fast too at some point in a year. That said, based on similar types of viruses historically, it doesn't seem like that's all that likely. With other similar outbreaks it kind of feels like people get exposed enough and then develop enough immunities towards it that the deadliness is less.

I'm sure you have read this:

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-thrives-airways-not-lungs-new-data-asymptomatic-cases-2021-12-15/
https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/17/preliminary-laboratory-data-hint-at-what-makes-omicron-the-most-superspreading-variant-yet/

TLDR: Omicron infects upper airway cells 70x as much as delta but lung tissue 1/10th as much as delta.

There is a real, biological reason for the difference in severity. To some extent, this actual physical difference between upper airway and lung tissue explains why viruses tend to get more infectious and less deadly. Anything taking off in the upper airways is going to have a massive reproductive advantage, yet be more mild.

It would be difficult for omicron to go backwards without giving up infectiousness.

As someone who has omicron (most likely, I'm positive in a high omicron area with omicron symptoms) right now and had real covid last year, they aren't the same virus.

Yeah I had no real respiratory problems but a sore throat that wouldn’t go away. It entered our company mid-late November. Now a good chunk of us have it (ironically all except the 3 old ladies who are anti vax but I swear to anything they are just to stubborn to get anything lol). My 7 year old had it but pushed through symptom wise in about 18 hours. My wife and I are still fighting it honestly. I never had a previous version, and I was around it plenty even prior to being vaxxed. I can def say this one is more contagious.

[Dresden]

South Africa reports that they are at the end of their Omicron surge, and are saying that really had no spike in deaths, despite all the new cases. This bodes very well for the rest of us. Our cases in the US hit 344,000 yesterday. It was less than a month ago when we were at 70K per day. It will be interesting to see where we top out at. I have to believe we are near the peak now, or will see the peak shortly after the holidays end.

[MGB8]

South Africa reports that they are at the end of their Omicron surge, and are saying that really had no spike in deaths, despite all the new cases. This bodes very well for the rest of us. Our cases in the US hit 344,000 yesterday. It was less than a month ago when we were at 70K per day. It will be interesting to see where we top out at. I have to believe we are near the peak now, or will see the peak shortly after the holidays end.

Let’s hope, though keep in mind that the US is so big that you really have different regional peaks.

I’m up near Philly and the numbers are huge and don’t seem to be slowing down yet. My guess is we might have another 1-3 weeks of huge numbers before the come-down begins. But it’s all speculation. At least the hospitalizations and ICU / vent cases, while up, aren’t nearing the increases in case percentage growth. We are back to where we were in mid April of this 2021 at the slow, plateau like come down post wave 2. That might lag a by a few days, but still… fingers crossed.

[gf2020hotmail]

Read on Twitter

Looks like Ball and McKinnie are cleared, but are going to take a day or two.

[sco]

It would be great to see Bell play today. I feel like Gafford is a good matchup.

[sco]

Read on Twitter

Looks like Ball and McKinnie are cleared, but are going to take a day or two.

Looking forward to seeing both guys tonight!

[cool007]

Really want to see Lonzo back and Coby as a 6th man - If Coby can provide the same spark (3pt shooting especially) off the bench then we could have something nice here. Sometimes feels like everything happened for a reason. Perfect timing for Lonzo to be out and Coby getting the opportunity and finding his rhythm. Now that he does have it, Lonzo is back to put everything in place.

Now we need Tony Bradley back and him playing great off the bench - we just need a solid 10-12 minutes off the bench and we would have a pretty good bench unit with (Coby, Ayo, Caruso, DJJ, Bradley, TBJ, McKinnie).

[Dresden]

Omicron continues to explode across the country. Yesterday there were 548K new cases. It's just staggering how this variant has taken off. Just two months ago, we were averaging just 75K per day. That's almost an 8 fold increase. Over 95% of all new cases are now Omicron. We are just so fortunate that it is milder than previous mutations, or else we'd be in a real crisis. As it is, hospitals are again overflowing with covid patients, and are having difficulty finding enough healthy staff to maintain operations.

[dougthonus]

Omicron continues to explode across the country. Yesterday there were 548K new cases. It's just staggering how this variant has taken off. Just two months ago, we were averaging just 75K per day. That's almost an 8 fold increase. Over 95% of all new cases are now Omicron. We are just so fortunate that it is milder than previous mutations, or else we'd be in a real crisis. As it is, hospitals are again overflowing with covid patients, and are having difficulty finding enough healthy staff to maintain operations.

What is interesting is the number of Omicron cases in a day is actually likely 2-5x this amount because it is milder and so many cases are asymptomatic, and it is actually hard to find testing now because places are out of tests or lines are out the door, that you likely have a huge amount of additional cases going unreported.

[FriedRise]

Read on Twitter

Our team has been hit pretty hard by COVID. #2 on the list according to Fansure in terms of number of player days missed (~240). Lucky that it only cost us 2 Ls, but hopefully those make-up games won't hit us too hard in terms of fatigue. At least we'll be playing with almost a full roster for most of it.

[micromonkey]

Omicron continues to explode across the country. Yesterday there were 548K new cases. It's just staggering how this variant has taken off. Just two months ago, we were averaging just 75K per day. That's almost an 8 fold increase. Over 95% of all new cases are now Omicron. We are just so fortunate that it is milder than previous mutations, or else we'd be in a real crisis. As it is, hospitals are again overflowing with covid patients, and are having difficulty finding enough healthy staff to maintain operations.

What is interesting is the number of Omicron cases in a day is actually likely 2-5x this amount because it is milder and so many cases are asymptomatic, and it is actually hard to find testing now because places are out of tests or lines are out the door, that you likely have a huge amount of additional cases going unreported.

I know close people who got Omicron. My Brother and his son (and this morning his daughter/ likely wife to follow) all were vaccinated (my brother was also boosted) but had a sore throat , mild chills for about a day and a half. Besides being milder in general and spreading more--I swear the incubation has to be way less--which is potentially good to burn itself out. I see online "less than 5 days"--seems like 2 days or even faster.

My brother's family minus my nephew was at my house for NYE--my family had all tested negative on the 30th (PCR one of my kids had a temp) --but my nephew went to another party and was sick on evening of 1/1 tested positive on 1/2--then the rest of his family got sick. My Brother had a sore throat 1/3 1 day after his son tested positive--but at the sore throat onset he tested negative (rapid/home). The next day he still had a lingering sore throat and tested again 1/4--this time positive-he is fine this morning 1/5. Then his daughter had a 101 fever (1/4) but tested negative. They might test her again today to see if she shows positive--as these are home tests at this point. If they were not obsessive testers--it likely slips under the radar--but this is still "unreported" in that they are not contacting the health department, etc. And as said I'm sure some people are getting almost no symptoms or have very mild cold like symptoms that go away in a day or 2. If the nephew NYE bash was the "event" then it was like 36 hours or less to spread to each person?

A family friend's brother and his wife are currently in the hospital (both unvaccinated). While I think that is less common for omicron its still happening. They are about the same age as my brother. No one is in the obese/diabetic, or obvious higher risk groups. The family friend is a nurse and is now saying "I told you so" re: vaccines but luckily everyone will be fine.

My father in law who is in his 70s and boosted had a case but only was down for 2 days. 4 days after a positive PCR test--he tested negative on PCR. So its clearing out quick as well. And this is a 70 year guy--not a prime NBA athlete--which is why I think the 5 day is likely a smart play--its a new ballgame with omicron.

As for vaccines--by the time any "omicron specific" shot gets approval might be a decent booster - just a better match for the mutated virus at that point. Hopefully it continues its milder trend. But in the meantime the existing shots work well enough to reduce deaths/hospital and slapping some booster doses based on risk-likely works for now. Israel who has been ahead of other health departments is doing a 4th for over 60. Another booster down the road and perhaps mixing --likely will be enough to deal with the hospitalization and death rate in the near future. Omicron is trending to flu-ish death rates and we have tools that are far superior to treating flu -largely because of more doses. Makes me wonder if 2 shot flu vaccines are in the works for older/risk groups.

Not to sidetrack too much--but now that Chicago/some of suburban cook have vaccination proof requirements---if you didn't get electronic verification codes initially--you can get them on the Illinois vax verify site. It was surprisingly easy and well designed site--you need to answer 3 security questions like you would for a credit report and there is a multi factor token setup -whether they patched log4j I can't say for certain . I was able to get 2D barcodes for my whole family and my wife and I both have them in Apple wallet now. I think android /google has a similar thing but don't know what it is. Of course you could bring the card (I'd always forget) or take a picture--but I have so many pics It was a pain flipping thru all of that.
Flipping thru pictures at egg harbor for 10 minutes is what led me to get the electronic barcode...I had only thought it was Chicago proper--but Glenview in cook also has the proof requirements....I just wanted an omelette

[coldfish]

What is interesting is the number of Omicron cases in a day is actually likely 2-5x this amount because it is milder and so many cases are asymptomatic, and it is actually hard to find testing now because places are out of tests or lines are out the door, that you likely have a huge amount of additional cases going unreported.

Statistic:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html
The CDC thought that we were at 4x for the whole pandemic a few months ago.

Anecdote:
Over Christmas, I know of the following infections:
- Myself and the other 3 in my family
- 3 other coworkers
- SIL and family in PA
- Cousin and family in PA
- Mother and sister in PA
- Cousin and family in NY
- Cousin IL in NY
- Friend and family in OH
In all of these cases (approximately 30), only 1 was reported to the state. PCR tests in this area are currently scheduling a week out and are of little value. Most were either at home tests or people with symptoms directly exposed to a positive person. These were all symptomatic cases. I have no idea how many asymptomatics were out there.

The at home testing really has made it so that the case reporting is just a glimpse of the whole picture.

Lastly, the at home antigen tests throw off a lot of false negatives. Out of the above group, many got sick, tested negative and then tested positive later.

I wouldn't be surprised if the real infection count was significantly more than a 2-5x ratio.

[DuckIII]

I’m positive right now and so is my 14 year old. Presumably Omicron because he is asymptomatic and my symptoms are mild. Wife and other two kids negative so far but I suspect that will change with how incredibly contagious this is. We are all fully vaxxed in the legal sense except my wife who does not have her booster yet.

Like many of you, I know numerous others who have gotten it but just did not report.

On testing, anecdotally, a friend of mine who was exposed to me sought drive through testing in Fairview Heights, IL (east of St. Louis about 20 miles) and had to wait in line for 4 hours. To get an appointment at a pharmacy for a test he would have had to wait 6 days.

[GoBlue72391]

Just to chime in with some anecdotal stuff, I tested positive and had to spend Christmas Day and NYE alone, which sucked ass. I'm not sure which strain I had, but the first 3-4 days were brutal, as I was fighting a fever and overall just felt like I had the body of a 90-year old man. No strength whatsoever, it was a struggle just to stand up. However, the 6 or so days of quarantine after that was a cakewalk as I felt fine.

My sister had it like 2 weeks before I did and was asymptomatic. I assume everyone in my household had it too and just didn't realize it. Both my brother's and my grandparent's entire households are completely infected, but with mild symptoms. Even though this strain is more contagious, it seems like it's generally weaker and milder. That gives me some hope for the future that hopefully, this will remain but kind of just peeter out into a manageable, non-life-threatening virus.

[Ice Man]

My nonscientific view is that Omicron is quiet good news. Obviously, this virus was never going to be eliminated. The best hope was to contain the damage and wait for it to mutate to become something milder, something that isn't life-threatening, at least not to those who are otherwise healthy and who take the appropriate precautions. It seems that Omicron might be that mutation.

[Chi town]

Like many of you I know dozens of people out with Onicron right now too. The unvaxxed over 50 crowd seem to be getting the chills and fever for 24 hours and the younger crew more mild symptoms.

What’s most interesting is the speed of recovery and transmission. The at home tests seem to show negative until like the 3rd day after symptoms.

A bunch of people I know that got it were boosted and masked indoors at holiday events with others that were masked and vaxxed. Still got it.

UCSF thought leader said weeks ago that he expects us to be endemic by end of February. Let’s hope so.

As others have said it’s really hard to get an at home test for get tested here in Bay Area without long waits. I know many people that know they have it and are quarantining without testing because they were at same events with people that have tested positive.

What’s also interesting is how SFUSD will not shut down schools even though they had 600 teachers in the district call out sick on Monday. They are rallying ever district employee with a teaching credential to fill in. Chronicle reporting how “devastating” vurtual learning was for kids mental health and academics. Times have changed.

[Chi town]

My bad… early February.

https://www.instagram.com/sfchronicle/p/CYFsTvCJTkq/?utm_medium=copy_link

[madvillian]

Read on Twitter

Our team has been hit pretty hard by COVID. #2 on the list according to Fansure in terms of number of player days missed (~240). Lucky that it only cost us 2 Ls, but hopefully those make-up games won't hit us too hard in terms of fatigue. At least we'll be playing with almost a full roster for most of it.

That is an incredible visualization of how disparate the outcomes for COVID have been in the league. Honestly looking at that graph it's hard to take this regular season that seriously. There are teams like Chicago that have missed 10x the minutes of the teams towards the bottom of the list.

[FriedRise]

Our entire family got it last year in April (me, my wife, our 4-year old, and 10-month old baby). It was fortunately super mild for our young ones; they just had a low grade fever and runny nose. My wife got it a little worse; she felt super exhausted for like a few days.

But I definitely got the worst of it; constant high fever for 6 straight days, extreme headaches (likely from dehydration), nausea, loss of taste/smell, no appetite, no energy. I ended up in the ER because it was becoming unmanageable with the fevers and headaches. Turned out I also had pneumonia so I'm glad we decided to get me to the hospital. Spent 3 days there on oxygen and mostly with the same symptoms minus the extreme headaches before things finally started to get better. Lost 16 lbs in 2 weeks from not eating.

Yeah, ****'s serious. I'm glad to hear the Omnicron strain is a lot milder because I wouldn't wish that on my worst enemy.