The Zach Lavine Problem

[Paxson43]

LaVine's on/off numbers were brutal each of his three years in the league. One year can be an accident, due to the numbers just being what they were or lineups or whatever. Three years is not. The guy has been a bad NBA player. We are got him for potential, not for who he is now.

For a kid that just turned 21 and has gotten better every season in the NBA, I'm willing to bet he can improve.

Based on last season's stats, he would have been the 2nd best 3PT shooter on our roster, and as the 3rd option in Minnesota he still averaged 18.9 ppg, which would have been 2nd best on our roster.

Kid just needs to get better on defense, and based on the work ethic I keep reading about, I'm willing to bet he'll get better. Question at the end of the day will be his BBIQ, which, again, can be learned.

[Mattya]

Zach Lavine defense problems are overrated. Whole Minny team sucks on the defense. It's hard to have any positive outlook if whole team isnt good on defense. Not saying Zach is good defender, he likely isnt. Not single 20-21 year old I know in this NBA is good defender by any means. Does anyone really think KAT is worst defensive big in the league. I dont buy that for a second. But numbers say he is. And yet he is next big superstar.

Same crap goes for Markkanen's rebounding problems. Get's compared to Doug Mcdermott's rebounding numbers. They either played same competition or played same conference at college. You taking stats into contest without looking at bigger picture.

Great post. Zach isn't a good defender, but none of Towns, Wiggins or LaVine are near the worst defenders at their positions. But, when you take a group of guys who aren't used to communicating as leaders on defense you are going to have issues. Then their problems just compound themselves. I also wouldn't believe a stat that says Gorgui Dieng had a near Anthony Davis type defensive impact last season or that Nemanja Bjelica is a better defender than Kristaps Porzingis.

[Jcool0]

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[AshyLarrysDiaper]

LaVine's on/off numbers were brutal each of his three years in the league. One year can be an accident, due to the numbers just being what they were or lineups or whatever. Three years is not. The guy has been a bad NBA player. We are got him for potential, not for who he is now.

For a kid that just turned 21 and has gotten better every season in the NBA, I'm willing to bet he can improve.

Based on last season's stats, he would have been the 2nd best 3PT shooter on our roster, and as the 3rd option in Minnesota he still averaged 18.9 ppg, which would have been 2nd best on our roster.

Kid just needs to get better on defense, and based on the work ethic I keep reading about, I'm willing to bet he'll get better. Question at the end of the day will be his BBIQ, which, again, can be learned.

Minor point but I've seen this mistake made a few times now: Zach LaVine is 22. Born 3/10/95.

That's still young as hell, obviously.

[Paxson43]

LaVine's on/off numbers were brutal each of his three years in the league. One year can be an accident, due to the numbers just being what they were or lineups or whatever. Three years is not. The guy has been a bad NBA player. We are got him for potential, not for who he is now.

For a kid that just turned 21 and has gotten better every season in the NBA, I'm willing to bet he can improve.

Based on last season's stats, he would have been the 2nd best 3PT shooter on our roster, and as the 3rd option in Minnesota he still averaged 18.9 ppg, which would have been 2nd best on our roster.

Kid just needs to get better on defense, and based on the work ethic I keep reading about, I'm willing to bet he'll get better. Question at the end of the day will be his BBIQ, which, again, can be learned.

Minor point but I've seen this mistake made a few times now: Zach LaVine is 22. Born 3/10/95.

That's still young as hell, obviously.

I stand corrected!

[JimmyJammer]

I am going to make the bold prediction of saying that LaVine has the potential to be as good as Kobe Bryant has ever been as long as he dedicates himself to put in the work. When I look at their third year numbers, the similarities are undeniable. Their minutes are about the same, their ppg averages are about the same, their assists averages are the same, their 2pt fg% are about the same, with Kobe being the slightly better rebounder and LaVine the much better long distance shooter. Go ahead, call me crazy![youtube]
https://youtu.be/RPNJ4e7C2RA[/youtube]

[Klomp]

His first two seasons, he played out of position at PG.

This past year, he was a third option in a system that probably wasn't the best for him. Highly productive, but that production would come in spurts mostly due to him being the third option. As red hot as LaVine can get, there were also nights he would struggle big time. And if the shot wasn't there, he wasn't really helping much on defense either. Personally, I believe Thibs wanted more consistency from that spot on both ends of the court, which is why he dealt him. Thibs hadn't given up on Zach; it wasn't like that at all. Needed a veteran presence, and someone who could be a big help on defense.

Zach wasn't either of those. But when his shot is falling, it's a beautiful thing. I'd honestly say he's one of the purest scorers in the league.

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[DarthDiggler69]

one thing I notice when I watch Lavine play is he goes at it 110% on the offensive end like all the time, his effort reminds me of pre-ACL Rose going full speed all the time

[JimmyJammer]

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I have not seen highlights like this from a Bulls player in a while. He is going to be a multiple all-star player.

[WindyCityBorn]

one thing I notice when I watch Lavine play is he goes at it 110% on the offensive end like all the time, his effort reminds me of pre-ACL Rose going full speed all the time

He doesn't put his body only the line as much as Rose did though. Seems to be a more of an opportunistic slasher.

[Benedict Miller]

The Bulls traded up in Lavines draft, passed on him, and then talked up trading for him after he's torn his ACL and he's a year away from FA even though they gave up an All-NBA talent and a mid first to do it. All of us hope we could be this bad at a job that has this much pay and status.

Was hilarious when Paxson said the package wasn't good enough when talking to the TWolves last year about Jimmy.

Since then, Lavine tore his ACL and Dunn had a horrible rookie season. And Jimmy blossomed into a fringe Superstar. TIME TO STRIKE!

Excellent point, and gave up the 16th pick.

[rugbyrugger23]

I still don't like the trade but if Dunn/Lavine was a decent backcourt (with one defensive STUD) and Lauri maximizes his potential (a what if, I know) then you could POTENTIALLY have 3 YOUNG dynamic starters for 1 aging, bullying, ball stopping, vet.

That's the rose colored glasses version. Don't actually buy it.

I find Dunn fascinating. He had such HUGE vibe coming out of college.

Dunn and LaVine did play quite a bit together- but not in a quality way. Usually spot minutes and in a 3 guard rotation. Get them use to each other and with a 3D SF, LaVine will shine.

Honestly I was a huge supporter of keep LaVine and on smaller scale keep Dunn. Look where Wolves are now, maybe dumping Rubio for pure cap.

If I was GM and made the Butler trade (again not my first choice) it would have been Wiggins instead of LaVine. And I would have offered Rubio and kept Dunn -- taking Rondo off your hands too. While keeping the 7th. Then flip Rondo's expiring or add to the max cap room Wolves would now have. I think my lineup before FA looks better:
Towns
Markkanen/Dieng
Butler
LaVine
Dunn/Jones
And just like Thibs is doing now, except with more cap, try for PG upgrade (Holiday, Beverley, other).

[League Circles]

I was just listening to his radio interview from today on ESPN 1000 and he seemed to indicate that he didn't know what Lake Michigan was. That when he saw it he was confused as to whether or not it was the ocean. Most likely a flat earther.

[DroseReturnChi]

Zach Lavine defense problems are overrated. Whole Minny team sucks on the defense. It's hard to have any positive outlook if whole team isnt good on defense. Not saying Zach is good defender, he likely isnt. Not single 20-21 year old I know in this NBA is good defender by any means. Does anyone really think KAT is worst defensive big in the league. I dont buy that for a second. But numbers say he is. And yet he is next big superstar.

Same crap goes for Markkanen's rebounding problems. Get's compared to Doug Mcdermott's rebounding numbers. They either played same competition or played same conference at college. You taking stats into contest without looking at bigger picture.

Great post. Zach isn't a good defender, but none of Towns, Wiggins or LaVine are near the worst defenders at their positions. But, when you take a group of guys who aren't used to communicating as leaders on defense you are going to have issues. Then their problems just compound themselves. I also wouldn't believe a stat that says Gorgui Dieng had a near Anthony Davis type defensive impact last season or that Nemanja Bjelica is a better defender than Kristaps Porzingis.

This is why RPM can be really misleading but haters gonna keep posting garbage meaningless stats to prove what they believe. This Gar pax fire movement is getting out of control as well and most of the fans are getting too emotional and havent thought about what they got in return in Lavine, Dunn, and the Finisher.

[Poohdini1]

His first two seasons, he played out of position at PG.

This past year, he was a third option in a system that probably wasn't the best for him. Highly productive, but that production would come in spurts mostly due to him being the third option. As red hot as LaVine can get, there were also nights he would struggle big time. And if the shot wasn't there, he wasn't really helping much on defense either. Personally, I believe Thibs wanted more consistency from that spot on both ends of the court, which is why he dealt him. Thibs hadn't given up on Zach; it wasn't like that at all. Needed a veteran presence, and someone who could be a big help on defense.

Zach wasn't either of those. But when his shot is falling, it's a beautiful thing. I'd honestly say he's one of the purest scorers in the league.

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Reminds me of a more athletic, better ball handling, less consistent version of Klay minus the all NBA defense

[tedwilliams1999]

I think a great comparison for LaVine would be Derozan. They both play a pretty similar style of ball, from what I've seen, except that LaVine is just way more talented at scoring. How good would Derozan be if he was actually efficient at scoring the ball?

I've also seen plenty of Jamal Crawford comparisons as well. Those aren't insulting in any way, since JC has been an incredibly useful player through out his career. However, Crawford has only had one season where he's approached the level of offensive efficiency that LaVine did in his 3rd year.

The all-star potential is quite tantalizing with Zach; we have absolutely no reason not to resign him.

[kulaz3000]

I think a great comparison for LaVine would be Derozan. They both play a pretty similar style of ball, from what I've seen, except that LaVine is just way more talented at scoring. How good would Derozan be if he was actually efficient at scoring the ball?

I've also seen plenty of Jamal Crawford comparisons as well. Those aren't insulting in any way, since JC has been an incredibly useful player through out his career. However, Crawford has only had one season where he's approached the level of offensive efficiency that LaVine did in his 3rd year.

The all-star potential is quite tantalizing with Zach; we have absolutely no reason not to resign him.

If by DeRozan, you mean they are both relatively one-dimensional then I'd agree. But in terms of games, they are quite different. LaVine is the superior shooter, and DeRozan makes a living getting to the line. Both a basically weak on the defensive end.

That said, as many have alluded to, he is so damn young, he is basically as young as many of the rookies coming into the league this upcoming season and he has a head start with the years of experience he has. The kid is definitely a gamer, and if players like Korver or Redik can improve their games with their lack of athleticism and natural gifts as a defensive player over the years, I players like LaVine can most definitely learn and grow into a capable defender. Maybe not all defensive type of defender, but to the point where he isn't a liability on that end.

[WindyCityBorn]

I was just listening to his radio interview from today on ESPN 1000 and he seemed to indicate that he didn't know what Lake Michigan was. That when he saw it he was confused as to whether or not it was the ocean. Most likely a flat earther.

You are doing your best to find the most petty, inconsequential things to criticize. Seriously who gives a flying crap if this guy isn't familiar with Midwest or wasn't thrilled moving to Minnesota after growing up on the West coast?

[BullsFTW]

I'm hoping he makes strides on his defense and playmaking abilities. His offensive tools is definitely there. I'm sure he's even more motivated now that he's the alpha-male of the team.

[bennjuiced34]

He's a net positive offensively for his career... not sure how you keep saying his team is worse with him on the floor, unless you're referring to his -2.0 BPM for his career, which if you looked has improved from -4.5 his rookie year to -1.4 his second year, to -0.3 last year. #progress

Last year his team had a Net Rating of -3.6 when he was on floor.

They had a Net Rating of +1.0 when he was on the bench.

That's per 100 possessions. So roughly 3.5 to 4 points per game difference in the negative, accounting for minutes per game, which is pretty big.

He's young so the hope is he improves, but he's got to improve a LOT to be a foundational player.

^^^
What he said.

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