GO CRAZY PAT! - Patrick Williams thread p2

[JimmyButler21]

People hating on the Kawhi comps... we are talking Rookie Kawhi who was 3 years older than PaW btw too

People are hating on the Kawhi comps because Kawhi is a superstar and top 5 player in the NBA and Williams has shown literally nothing so far that's warranted those comps. Doesn't mean Williams can't be good. I didn't really care for the Williams pick but I've enjoyed him so far and think he's a piece they should keep going forward but nothing he's done so far screams "superstar" to me. But I guess it's possible, we all knew Williams was going to be a work in progress based on his age and the fact that he didn't start in college and with COVID-19 decimating his first rookie summer. We'll see how he develops these next few seasons.

You are aware that when people make that comparison they aren't saying he is Kawhi but that aspects of his game remind people of Kawhi right?

It's perfectly reasonable to compare him to Kawhi, nobody legitimately thinks he's Kawhi Leonard right now.

I mean LeBron literally said Williams reminded him of Kawhi after playing him.

LeBron said Williams had "Kawhi-type hands", he didn't say he reminded him of Kawhi. There's so much more to Kawhi's game than just his hands.

[fleet]

People are hating on the Kawhi comps because Kawhi is a superstar and top 5 player in the NBA and Williams has shown literally nothing so far that's warranted those comps. Doesn't mean Williams can't be good. I didn't really care for the Williams pick but I've enjoyed him so far and think he's a piece they should keep going forward but nothing he's done so far screams "superstar" to me. But I guess it's possible, we all knew Williams was going to be a work in progress based on his age and the fact that he didn't start in college and with COVID-19 decimating his first rookie summer. We'll see how he develops these next few seasons.

You are aware that when people make that comparison they aren't saying he is Kawhi but that aspects of his game remind people of Kawhi right?

It's perfectly reasonable to compare him to Kawhi, nobody legitimately thinks he's Kawhi Leonard right now.

I mean LeBron literally said Williams reminded him of Kawhi after playing him.

LeBron said Williams had "Kawhi-type hands", he didn't say he reminded him of Kawhi. There's so much more to Kawhi's game than just his hands.

He said he thinks Pat is going to be an exceptional talent and has a great in between game. Which is interesting to me personally because I was concerned about his in-between game. I’ll have to cede this point to Lebron.

[WindyCityBorn]

I think his best comparison is Kawhi and I’m sticking with that. That doesn’t mean I think he is future superstar. I have no idea, but the raw tools and skills are there. He plays nothing like Thaddeus Young and he already had much better jump shot than him at 19.

[DroseReturnChi]

People hating on the Kawhi comps... we are talking Rookie Kawhi who was 3 years older than PaW btw too

People are hating on the Kawhi comps because Kawhi is a superstar and top 5 player in the NBA and Williams has shown literally nothing so far that's warranted those comps. Doesn't mean Williams can't be good. I didn't really care for the Williams pick but I've enjoyed him so far and think he's a piece they should keep going forward but nothing he's done so far screams "superstar" to me. But I guess it's possible, we all knew Williams was going to be a work in progress based on his age and the fact that he didn't start in college and with COVID-19 decimating his first rookie summer. We'll see how he develops these next few seasons.

What do you mean nothing? He is the closest thing to Kawhi if he were to be a rookie.
No ones saying he is Kawhi leonard level good, just the playstyle reminds of Kawhi and its pretty evident PW copied literally every move.
If you dont like the comp, just root for White. No need to hate on the guy when he is a big project that has superstar potential.

[dougthonus]

Alarmist was the wrong word. But there is also a difference between saying there is zero reason at all to be exited, and saying something more moderate about what he is up to at such a young age and development axis point. If the fair opinion that he can be Thad Young is offered, that's cool.

Fair enough.

Zero reason to be excited was probably incomplete and an over statement. I see little reason to be excited about him becoming an all-star. Rookies with what I would view his initial impact and combination of skills, athleticism, and size probably have about a 1 in 15 chance of really killing it. Some will do so, maybe Pat will be one of them, but I don't see any reason to think he will be other than hopes and dreams.

To put it this way, if we had Isaac Okoro, people would be saying the same thing about Okoro, but we don't have Okoro, so they are saying it about Pat Williams. He hasn't been exceptional or even particularly good so far. His body / skills aren't exceptional. The main reason people now project him to be great is that he plays for the Chicago Bulls and we are Bulls fans. If he were on the Cavs or Pistons, few here would be like "wow, future all-star that Pat Williams, wish we drafted him" whereas we might be saying that about Tyrese Haliburton right or LaMelo Ball right now even though they are on different teams because their performance has warranted it.

That's in a nutshell what I'm saying, the primary reason for most people that love Pat now is simply cognitive bias.

[dougthonus]

If Williams turns into a decent starter for the next decade, I think that's a huge win for the Bulls coming out of a weak draft. Sure, you'd like to grab a superstar at #4 but that wasn't realistic picking outside of the top 3 in that specific Draft. And really, I think Williams becoming a decent starter, somewhere below an All Star player is the most likely outcome. That's not hate, that's just being realistic. Coming out of the draft, I definitely would have taken that out of Williams.

Unfortunately, like Carter, Markkanen, and White; it doesn't help the Bulls go from a mediocre team in NBA Hell to a contender in the East and that's what you got out of your tank years.

Yeah, I generally agree with this. If Williams becomes what I think he will become then it's an okay pick. The problem with it isn't so much Williams, it's the lack of total talent on the team. If we had a legit second star next to Zach then the type of player Williams is likely to become would be a heck of a lot more valuable to the team.

[AKfanatic]

Given his age, the way his college season ended and his professional career began... canceled seasons, lockdowns, virtual meetings, limited training camps on a new team which had a new coaching staff and front office, Williams has looked solid and unsurprisingly inconsistent.

Yeah he’s not contributing as a rookie like a Luka/Lamelo, two guys that played pro ball and spent childhoods being groomed to be professional basketball players.... or Zion, a freak athlete/physical specimen... *insert sarcastic surprise gif here*.

Williams certainty hasn’t shown enough for fans to be giddy about the future but he’s shown enough, given the oddity of the season and circumstances leading to it and surrounding his new team to have fans feeling a bit excited about his potential over the next coming years. His age and physical/athletic profile alone are reason enough for some excitement. Add to that skills that he’s shown already and there’s plenty to he hopeful and excited about. Will he be an all-star? superstar? It’s not absurd to believe he could reach great heights and next season (the coming offseason) will be huge towards his achieving them.


The biggest plus is that he’s on a Bulls team that seemingly has put in place the right staff to help him develop as a player. Not having Boylen as the HC is as good a reason as any to be excited about Williams’ development.

[JimmyButler21]

People hating on the Kawhi comps... we are talking Rookie Kawhi who was 3 years older than PaW btw too

People are hating on the Kawhi comps because Kawhi is a superstar and top 5 player in the NBA and Williams has shown literally nothing so far that's warranted those comps. Doesn't mean Williams can't be good. I didn't really care for the Williams pick but I've enjoyed him so far and think he's a piece they should keep going forward but nothing he's done so far screams "superstar" to me. But I guess it's possible, we all knew Williams was going to be a work in progress based on his age and the fact that he didn't start in college and with COVID-19 decimating his first rookie summer. We'll see how he develops these next few seasons.

What do you mean nothing? He is the closest thing to Kawhi if he were to be a rookie.
No ones saying he is Kawhi leonard level good, just the playstyle reminds of Kawhi and its pretty evident PW copied literally every move.
If you dont like the comp, just root for White. No need to hate on the guy when he is a big project that has superstar potential.

Yeah I get it, he's the new toy. You could say every rookie has superstar potential until they're not a superstar. Markkanen and Carter Jr were future superstars too.

And again, I like Williams and think he's gonna be a key player going forward, but I also think expectations need to be tempered a ton.

[nomorezorro]

To put it this way, if we had Isaac Okoro, people would be saying the same thing about Okoro, but we don't have Okoro, so they are saying it about Pat Williams.

if we had a 6'5" guy who was shooting 39% from the field and 28% on threes, i personally would not be saying good things about him

i think it's perfectly reasonable to say bulls fans are overly optimistic about patrick williams just because he's a guy on the team we like. but i think it's overcorrecting to say there's no reason to believe he's got legitimate potential to turn into something good.

people's outlook on williams isn't solely rooted in hopes and dreams. it's based on demonstrated skills (shooting) and reasonably projectable skills based on things he's shown flashes of (defense, some shot creation, some passing). his flaws right now aren't super damning, either — he can be passive. he hesitates sometimes when he gets the ball on the perimeter, passing up open looks and getting way too many traveling calls. his handle is loose but it's much further along than i expected it to be when we drafted him. if he's developed properly, none of those really place a hard ceiling on what his game can become.

it would be silly to assume he hits his 90th percentile outcome as a player, but the path to maxing his potential isn't particularly hard to imagine. jaylen brown had a similar rookie season at age 20. jaylen brown's development was exceptional, but from what i can tell there's nothing really precluding williams from following a similar arc (even if you acknowledge it's far from the most likely outcome). he's probably a slightly worse athlete than jaylen is and it might be harder for a bigger player to improve his handles to the same degree, but pat has the advantage of being a better shooter at this point in his career than jaylen was.

[dougthonus]

if we had a 6'5" guy who was shooting 39% from the field and 28% on threes, i personally would not be saying good things about him

Most people would say the same about a sub 10 PER player.

i think it's perfectly reasonable to say bulls fans are overly optimistic about patrick williams just because he's a guy on the team we like. but i think it's overcorrecting to say there's no reason to believe he's got legitimate potential to turn into something good.

I'm speaking not to the people who say he will be good, but the people whom seem to assume he will be elite. This generally seems to be a thing lots of fans of any team assume about their rookies. People were saying the same about Coby at the end of last season.

[kulaz3000]

if we had a 6'5" guy who was shooting 39% from the field and 28% on threes, i personally would not be saying good things about him

Most people would say the same about a sub 10 PER player.

i think it's perfectly reasonable to say bulls fans are overly optimistic about patrick williams just because he's a guy on the team we like. but i think it's overcorrecting to say there's no reason to believe he's got legitimate potential to turn into something good.

I'm speaking not to the people who say he will be good, but the people whom seem to assume he will be elite. This generally seems to be a thing lots of fans of any team assume about their rookies. People were saying the same about Coby at the end of last season.

I don't dispute anything said but the last bolded part. Did people really think he could be elite though? I don't know about that.

Only speaking for myself, I thought he would be a really good 6th man, and had the potential to be a starter if developed correctly, but I never imagined he would be elite, and from memory, I don't think many did either. I could be wrong, but I can't recall a massive hype with regards to Coby having the potential to be elite, not like there is currently with Patrick.

[madvillian]

I'm not going to make any ceiling or floor judgement about pat until he's at least 21 and in his 3rd year. Hell, I thought Lauri was the next Dirk after his rookie year. For now I'm just happy he doesn't look like a complete scrub at 19 with a very raw game.

[Chi town]

My bad. I was wrong about Kawhi age as a rookie.

Here are his stats as a rookie though.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/leonaka01.html

[coldfish]

Its funny that I had to go to page 3 to even find this thread.

Right now, Pat has a 10.3 PER. His scoring efficiency is actually down from the start of the year. Early on, his on/off type numbers weren't terrible but as the season has gone on they have actually got worse. He now has the worst net rating on the team. Out of 479 NBA players, he has the 460th best rpm.

A lot of people have Williams as a locked on piece going forward. I'll give him that he is very young and he has shown flashes. That said, anyone who makes it to the NBA should be able to do impressive basketball things. Doing them consistently is what separates good players and many never figure out how to do that.

I can't say that there is someone else Chicago should have drafted maybe other than Haliburton. Just about everyone has been terrible in this draft class.

As others are saying, Patrick Williams is a project and no one knows how he is going to turn out. Its going to be years before we really know.

[sco]

Its funny that I had to go to page 3 to even find this thread.

Right now, Pat has a 10.3 PER. His scoring efficiency is actually down from the start of the year. Early on, his on/off type numbers weren't terrible but as the season has gone on they have actually got worse. He now has the worst net rating on the team. Out of 479 NBA players, he has the 460th best rpm.

A lot of people have Williams as a locked on piece going forward. I'll give him that he is very young and he has shown flashes. That said, anyone who makes it to the NBA should be able to do impressive basketball things. Doing them consistently is what separates good players and many never figure out how to do that.

I can't say that there is someone else Chicago should have drafted maybe other than Haliburton. Just about everyone has been terrible in this draft class.

As others are saying, Patrick Williams is a project and no one knows how he is going to turn out. Its going to be years before we really know.

I saw this happening. When something seems too good to be true, it usually is. It's too easy to fall in love with rookies. His shooting went from elite to below average. Also, he's been matched up against almost every elite forward in the game, and while making some good plays, he's far too inexperienced not to get torched. Also, with Lauri out, PWill has received a little more defensive attention.

PWill has shown that he has above average skills and athleticism for a rookie, as well as a decent BBIQ. If he continues to get playing time over the next 2 season, we'll see improvement, just from learning curve. After that, it's going to be all about what sort of work ethic he has. If he is surrounded by guys like Zach and Thad to see what good habits are, it will help, but it's on him.

[DuckIII]

I'm speaking not to the people who say he will be good, but the people whom seem to assume he will be elite. This generally seems to be a thing lots of fans of any team assume about their rookies. People were saying the same about Coby at the end of last season.

I can only speak for myself. And I’ve said repeatedly, and say again now, that Willy will be a franchise player and that we have “guy 2” to pair with Lavine. Now we need “guy 3.”

But that is not an assumption. It’s a prediction. About a guy I didn’t want to draft. And when the guy I did want to draft - Halliburton - looks like the real deal. I have plenty of subjective reasons to be anti-Willy to be “right” about my original view.

I also never thought White had any tools to be elite and have always maxed his projection as a 6th man role player. I was so vocal about his lack of high end tools that someone named the thread about his drafting after me. His NBA career has so far only confirmed my view of his decent yet unremarkable potential. I had WCJ as a role player (but starter), and now advocate for him as a potential value contract to retain. I did think Lauri’s production as a rookie showed star level upside and placed him in the “untouchable prospect to develop” column and was wrong. **** happens. But there’s a significant variance in predictions among the last 4 lottery prospects, not just “he’s a Bull, he’s gonna be great!”

Point being fans - most fans on this board anyway which in my opinion is pretty tough on the team’s players - don’t evaluate team prospects based on being on the team. They do so based on a review of their skills, physical traits and perceived intangibles. Which often causes us to reach a wide variety of opinions on a spectrum. Willy is a perfect example. Yours on the left, mine on the right, and a whole lot falling on a range of different points between.

Suggesting it’s just fan optimism is kind of easy. My general view of the board is that our fans view most things Bulls related with a pretty healthy dose of pessimism. Including prospects.

[Wingy]

I worry that he has been given too much, too soon in terms of minutes. I get the pluses of development, and learning through mistakes.

Yet that’s also a risk if it leads to a softening of his work ethic, and gives him any kind of sense of entitlement. Subconsciously that is. I don’t think he’d make an intentional choice to throttle back.

Seems like he gets time no matter what, and that’s risky if it’s not managed the right way. Depends on who he is, and how he shows up to work behind the scenes too...but ultimately, it’s a league of results. I’d like to see his time reduced, in hopes of lighting a fire that he seems to lack by most accounts.

[dougthonus]

Suggesting it’s just fan optimism is kind of easy. My general view of the board is that our fans view most things Bulls related with a pretty healthy dose of pessimism. Including prospects.

I think most fans, and not necessarily for bad reason, will always overestimate how well young players will develop. It does take time, and there are countless examples where guys develop into stars people point to. The typical process is to be overly hyped about young players and have that hype slowly wear off as they age and fail to make the necessary improvements to reach the lofty heights people have.

It's fine to get excited of course, I'm guilty of the same thing with different players I really like. I'm also right/wrong on various guys like everyone else. It's an inexact science, and it'd be silly to hold anyone to some super high standard when the professionals doing this 8 hours a day can't figure it all out with 5x the information the common fan has.

[moorhosj]

Its funny that I had to go to page 3 to even find this thread.

Right now, Pat has a 10.3 PER. His scoring efficiency is actually down from the start of the year. Early on, his on/off type numbers weren't terrible but as the season has gone on they have actually got worse. He now has the worst net rating on the team. Out of 479 NBA players, he has the 460th best rpm.

The advanced stats from Basketball Reference disagree with you. There have only been two full months of play and he was better in Feb than Jan. He was -5.9 in January at 9.1/4.4/0.9 with a .544 TS% and +0.5 in February at 10.6/6.1/1.5 with a .551 TS%.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willipa01/splits/2021

[DuckIII]

I worry that he has been given too much, too soon in terms of minutes. I get the pluses of development, and learning through mistakes.

Yet that’s also a risk if it leads to a softening of his work ethic, and gives him any kind of sense of entitlement. Subconsciously that is. I don’t think he’d make an intentional choice to throttle back.

Seems like he gets time no matter what, and that’s risky if it’s not managed the right way. Depends on who he is, and how he shows up to work behind the scenes too...but ultimately, it’s a league of results. I’d like to see his time reduced, in hopes of lighting a fire that he seems to lack by most accounts.

There isn’t any indication that he “lacks fire” to improve. Don’t confuse that with instances of in-game reluctance.

As for what he’s been given, he’s starting and playing 28 minutes a game. It’s significant exposure for a 19 year old, I agree. But the gross minute numbers are offset by the role he plays which is essentially 5th wheel.

The Bulls have taken an unusual approach with Willy, which is giving him the minutes, but significantly reducing his role. Had they brought him off the bench with limited minutes, but used those minutes to give him a bigger role when he’s in, I don’t think anyone would say he’s being gifted anything. But the approaches are similar despite their differences in my view.

It’s unique. And it has its ups and downs. But I like the approach. I also liked the approach with White last year, which was to do the opposite. Different things can make sense for different prospects.

I’d also add that some of this “entitlement” may also stem from injuries to OPJ, Lauri and Hutch being AWOL. BD has limited options anyway. He may have made Willy “earn it” more or reduced his role had the roster been healthier.