Matas Progress Tracker

[sco]

Billy on Buz…

“There’s going to be these ups and downs (with Buzelis), so I give him a lot of credit (after) the five or six-minute rotation against Boston,” said Donovan. “One of his great strengths — he gets disappointed — he wants to do better and it doesn’t paralyze him. I’ve seen players afraid to make mistakes and don’t do anything; he’s not that way. He came out pretty focused and earned his minutes. The work ethic, the competitiveness, all that stuff I love. I think that’s going to be a huge. He’s got a really good mentality.

“He has to find an offensive game in terms of there are things he is accustomed to doing he can’t get away with up here,” Donovan counseled. “Not so much change his game, but in particular on drives to the basket there are times he tries to eurostep because he’s long and tall. But as strong as guys are a lot of times on drives he gets knocked off balance. Those are things he always got away with. He’s established himself as a good catch-and-shoot guy. He’s a guy who also can put the ball on the floor and I think he’ll learn how and when to do it. But for a young player like Matas, 6-foot-10 and athletic and a very good runner I think the athleticism in the open floor translates. I think he can evolve because he does have a skill set to do that. He’s not afraid of failure or messing up. So it’s going be a process for him. But he can get there and be a very good player.”

Based on what Billy has said (and not based on his minutes, necessarily) - where do we think he is on Matas? Reading between the lines of the few things I've read, I get the sense Billy is constantly rolling his eyes in frustration at him. He sees ability, but the details that coaches love to obsess over drive him nuts, I think. And, he talks about him potentially being a very good player one day, but never great. It may just be a psychological thing in developing a very young player, where he wants him to stay hungry and not get too happy with his flowers until later. But since he said "he's going to play!" in the offseason, there isn't once where I've thought, Billy is all in on this kid. His raw skills are exciting to me, but while Billy usually seems complimentary, he's also sort of matter-of-fact and (perhaps intentionally) not all that impressed. Maybe he feels like Buz is getting plenty of buttering-up from other directions. Loving the mentality but remaining reserved on his play seems like a standard coach-'em-up thing.

The part about not getting paralyzed and passive in the fear of making mistakes - I wonder how much of that was comparing/contrasting to PAW.

I definitely agree on the Pat part.

IMO, Billy is rarely, if ever, negative about his guys in the press, which I respect. I think his selective wording on Matas seems very deliberate. I have done a bunch of "between the lines" reading and concluded that it was due to Matas having a less-than-desireable work ethic or some attitude of entitlement, but with Matas' improved play not drawing more praise, I'm coming around on Billy just not wanting to get he kid too "up", because rooks have ups and downs.

[cocktailswith_2short]

I look forward to the point in this thread when he inevitably replaces Pat in the starting lineup. Probably around page 28 or so.

page 20 now still time for this prophecy to take place .

[sco]

I look forward to the point in this thread when he inevitably replaces Pat in the starting lineup. Probably around page 28 or so.

page 20 now still time for this prophecy to take place .

I could see him replace Giddey before Pat.

[Chi town]

Billy on Buz…

“There’s going to be these ups and downs (with Buzelis), so I give him a lot of credit (after) the five or six-minute rotation against Boston,” said Donovan. “One of his great strengths — he gets disappointed — he wants to do better and it doesn’t paralyze him. I’ve seen players afraid to make mistakes and don’t do anything; he’s not that way. He came out pretty focused and earned his minutes. The work ethic, the competitiveness, all that stuff I love. I think that’s going to be a huge. He’s got a really good mentality.

“He has to find an offensive game in terms of there are things he is accustomed to doing he can’t get away with up here,” Donovan counseled. “Not so much change his game, but in particular on drives to the basket there are times he tries to eurostep because he’s long and tall. But as strong as guys are a lot of times on drives he gets knocked off balance. Those are things he always got away with. He’s established himself as a good catch-and-shoot guy. He’s a guy who also can put the ball on the floor and I think he’ll learn how and when to do it. But for a young player like Matas, 6-foot-10 and athletic and a very good runner I think the athleticism in the open floor translates. I think he can evolve because he does have a skill set to do that. He’s not afraid of failure or messing up. So it’s going be a process for him. But he can get there and be a very good player.”

Based on what Billy has said (and not based on his minutes, necessarily) - where do we think he is on Matas? Reading between the lines of the few things I've read, I get the sense Billy is constantly rolling his eyes in frustration at him. He sees ability, but the details that coaches love to obsess over drive him nuts, I think. And, he talks about him potentially being a very good player one day, but never great. It may just be a psychological thing in developing a very young player, where he wants him to stay hungry and not get too happy with his flowers until later. But since he said "he's going to play!" in the offseason, there isn't once where I've thought, Billy is all in on this kid. His raw skills are exciting to me, but while Billy usually seems complimentary, he's also sort of matter-of-fact and (perhaps intentionally) not all that impressed. Maybe he feels like Buz is getting plenty of buttering-up from other directions. Loving the mentality but remaining reserved on his play seems like a standard coach-'em-up thing.

The part about not getting paralyzed and passive in the fear of making mistakes - I wonder how much of that was comparing/contrasting to PAW.

I definitely agree on the Pat part.

IMO, Billy is rarely, if ever, negative about his guys in the press, which I respect. I think his selective wording on Matas seems very deliberate. I have done a bunch of "between the lines" reading and concluded that it was due to Matas having a less-than-desireable work ethic or some attitude of entitlement, but with Matas' improved play not drawing more praise, I'm coming around on Billy just not wanting to get he kid too "up", because rooks have ups and downs.

I think Billy really believes in Buz so he’s coaching him hard. Tough love.

Coby has said Buz comes in on off days to watch film with coaches and shoot. He raved about his work ethic.

[Jstock12]

Based on what Billy has said (and not based on his minutes, necessarily) - where do we think he is on Matas? Reading between the lines of the few things I've read, I get the sense Billy is constantly rolling his eyes in frustration at him. He sees ability, but the details that coaches love to obsess over drive him nuts, I think. And, he talks about him potentially being a very good player one day, but never great. It may just be a psychological thing in developing a very young player, where he wants him to stay hungry and not get too happy with his flowers until later. But since he said "he's going to play!" in the offseason, there isn't once where I've thought, Billy is all in on this kid. His raw skills are exciting to me, but while Billy usually seems complimentary, he's also sort of matter-of-fact and (perhaps intentionally) not all that impressed. Maybe he feels like Buz is getting plenty of buttering-up from other directions. Loving the mentality but remaining reserved on his play seems like a standard coach-'em-up thing.

The part about not getting paralyzed and passive in the fear of making mistakes - I wonder how much of that was comparing/contrasting to PAW.

I definitely agree on the Pat part.

IMO, Billy is rarely, if ever, negative about his guys in the press, which I respect. I think his selective wording on Matas seems very deliberate. I have done a bunch of "between the lines" reading and concluded that it was due to Matas having a less-than-desireable work ethic or some attitude of entitlement, but with Matas' improved play not drawing more praise, I'm coming around on Billy just not wanting to get he kid too "up", because rooks have ups and downs.

I think Billy really believes in Buz so he’s coaching him hard. Tough love.

On the one hand, you can force feed minutes to your rookie and let him try to figure out things by trial and error. Problem is, if the rookie isn't quite ready to get thrown to the wolves, and mostly what happens is him failing, that could shatter his confidence.

On the other hand, you can make your rookie earn every single minute, starting from a very limited role, and reward him for good play and let him slowly discover what doesn't work at the next level. If he succeeds and builds up his minutes to a significant amount, that will build up his confidence and the sense of achievement. At least I hope that's what's happening

[Chi town]

Don’t look now but Buz is a 40% (39.6 round that up)) 3pt shooter on 7 attempts per 36.

I think Buz will be shooting 10 per game as soon as year 3 when he has the ball more in his hands.

[Dez]

Don’t look now but Buz is a 40% (39.6 round that up)) 3pt shooter on 7 attempts per 36.

I think Buz will be shooting 10 per game as soon as year 3 when he has the ball more in his hands.

He's doing well but per 36 numbers are meaningless.

[Muzbar]

Don’t look now but Buz is a 40% (39.6 round that up)) 3pt shooter on 7 attempts per 36.

I think Buz will be shooting 10 per game as soon as year 3 when he has the ball more in his hands.

He's doing well but per 36 numbers are meaningless.

I agree. Per 36 stats are, IMO, stupid.

Buzelis is playing really well and very confidently at the moment, though. I love it.

[Chi town]

Don’t look now but Buz is a 40% (39.6 round that up)) 3pt shooter on 7 attempts per 36.

I think Buz will be shooting 10 per game as soon as year 3 when he has the ball more in his hands.

He's doing well but per 36 numbers are meaningless.

I agree. Per 36 stats are, IMO, stupid.

Buzelis is playing really well and very confidently at the moment, though. I love it.

I’m not a fan of per 36 either as few players even play 36 mins these days. What they do is confirm the eye test… Buz lets it fly. He can become a high volume 3pt shooter.

[kodo]

HIs scoring progression has gone the complete opposite of what I expected.
A guy who dropped to 11th in the draft because scouts doubted his 3P shooting ability, but known for his length athleticism and dunking.

His 3P% has already hit 40% and we're just 1/4 way through the season. I thought this would take multiple years.
His 2P% is awful, 42%. Even just around the rim he's only 53%, which is terrible. Considering he's a frequent dunker, that means his layup/floater % is abysmal.

He clearly has a lot to work on, but he's been excellent on the two areas that are the biggest question marks for rookies, hitting NBA 3s in actual games at a high % and defense.

[sco]

HIs scoring progression has gone the complete opposite of what I expected.
A guy who dropped to 11th in the draft because scouts doubted his 3P shooting ability, but known for his length athleticism and dunking.

His 3P% has already hit 40% and we're just 1/4 way through the season. I thought this would take multiple years.
His 2P% is awful, 42%. Even just around the rim he's only 53%, which is terrible. Considering he's a frequent dunker, that means his layup/floater % is abysmal.

He clearly has a lot to work on, but he's been excellent on the two areas that are the biggest question marks for rookies, hitting NBA 3s in actual games at a high % and defense.

Yeah, I see it sorta the opposite. IMO his 3pt % will likely come down below 35% for the season. I like his confidence in taking the show, but his form still needs a little work (mainly his footing is inconsistent and he brings the ball down too low). Nothing "Giddey bad", just needs refinement in the offseason(s) to become easier to make consistent. Look, I'm thrilled they're falling and would love to be wrong, but we've all been fooled by a month of 3pt success.

His 2pt %'s I think stem from his aggressive attacking of the rim against capable rim protectors. Again, I'm thrilled with his aggressivenss. I think he just needs to learn which of his moves work and which don't in the NBA.

[DASMACKDOWN]

HIs scoring progression has gone the complete opposite of what I expected.
A guy who dropped to 11th in the draft because scouts doubted his 3P shooting ability, but known for his length athleticism and dunking.

His 3P% has already hit 40% and we're just 1/4 way through the season. I thought this would take multiple years.
His 2P% is awful, 42%. Even just around the rim he's only 53%, which is terrible. Considering he's a frequent dunker, that means his layup/floater % is abysmal.

He clearly has a lot to work on, but he's been excellent on the two areas that are the biggest question marks for rookies, hitting NBA 3s in actual games at a high % and defense.

Yeah, I see it sorta the opposite. IMO his 3pt % will likely come down below 35% for the season. I like his confidence in taking the show, but his form still needs a little work (mainly his footing is inconsistent and he brings the ball down too low). Nothing "Giddey bad", just needs refinement in the offseason(s) to become easier to make consistent. Look, I'm thrilled they're falling and would love to be wrong, but we've all been fooled by a month of 3pt success.

His 2pt %'s I think stem from his aggressive attacking of the rim against capable rim protectors. Again, I'm thrilled with his aggressivenss. I think he just needs to learn which of his moves work and which don't in the NBA.

Honestly I think Matas shot is like Steph Curry's in comparison to Giddeys. Giddeys is a complete line drive with nothing underneath the ball .

[Chi town]

HIs scoring progression has gone the complete opposite of what I expected.
A guy who dropped to 11th in the draft because scouts doubted his 3P shooting ability, but known for his length athleticism and dunking.

His 3P% has already hit 40% and we're just 1/4 way through the season. I thought this would take multiple years.
His 2P% is awful, 42%. Even just around the rim he's only 53%, which is terrible. Considering he's a frequent dunker, that means his layup/floater % is abysmal.

He clearly has a lot to work on, but he's been excellent on the two areas that are the biggest question marks for rookies, hitting NBA 3s in actual games at a high % and defense.

Yeah, I see it sorta the opposite. IMO his 3pt % will likely come down below 35% for the season. I like his confidence in taking the show, but his form still needs a little work (mainly his footing is inconsistent and he brings the ball down too low). Nothing "Giddey bad", just needs refinement in the offseason(s) to become easier to make consistent. Look, I'm thrilled they're falling and would love to be wrong, but we've all been fooled by a month of 3pt success.

His 2pt %'s I think stem from his aggressive attacking of the rim against capable rim protectors. Again, I'm thrilled with his aggressivenss. I think he just needs to learn which of his moves work and which don't in the NBA.

Spot on. Totally agree.

What I like is he lets it fly from 3 even when contested. He makes the contested ones too.

Buz just needs to keep stretching himself and learning what he can and can’t do. It will hurt his percentage overall but in time it will make him a much better player.

[Jcool0]

Not a great game shooting 0-5 from 3. But was a team high +13

[DASMACKDOWN]

Not a great game shooting 0-5 from 3. But was a team high +13

I thought he took good shots though. Also I think his bread and butter defensively is on the weakside/help D. He consistently gets blocks like that.

[Stratmaster]

HIs scoring progression has gone the complete opposite of what I expected.
A guy who dropped to 11th in the draft because scouts doubted his 3P shooting ability, but known for his length athleticism and dunking.

His 3P% has already hit 40% and we're just 1/4 way through the season. I thought this would take multiple years.
His 2P% is awful, 42%. Even just around the rim he's only 53%, which is terrible. Considering he's a frequent dunker, that means his layup/floater % is abysmal.

He clearly has a lot to work on, but he's been excellent on the two areas that are the biggest question marks for rookies, hitting NBA 3s in actual games at a high % and defense.

I think his around the rim % is low because he still makes a lot of bad choices driving into multiple defenders.

[Chi town]

PG talking up Buz…

Read on Twitter

[Chi town]

Read on Twitter

Billy played Buz big 4th quarter mins. Awesome ti hear why he is playing him.

[Stratmaster]

Don’t look now but Buz is a 40% (39.6 round that up)) 3pt shooter on 7 attempts per 36.

I think Buz will be shooting 10 per game as soon as year 3 when he has the ball more in his hands.

He's doing well but per 36 numbers are meaningless.

They are only meaningless if they are misused to judge a player, with an assumption that they are going to play 36 minutes and will perform the same playing 36 minutes as playing less than that. That isn't their purpose.

If you understand what you are using them for, they are valuable, and commonly used and quoted by experts.

[Stratmaster]

That's all very fair. My assessment is admittedly heavily based on the schedule. If you took a formula that adjusted the record and projected record based on SOS I believe the Bulls would rate as the equivalent of a .500 team, possibly over that. I will have to see if I can find any such metrics.

If you look at their net-rating as -4.2 and their schedule has a net rating of 1.35 worse than average, if you adjust for the league average net rating ignoring the Bulls net rating (since they can't play themselves), that would be 1.2 worse, giving them an adjusted net rating of -3 which would tie them with the Pistons for 19th/20th. I could see the case to say that's an "average" team vs a bad team.

Last year, the Bulls had a net rating of -1.4 and were 37-45, the Nets had a -2.9 (closest to this mark) and had a 30-52 finish.

I don't know how valid this approach is, throwing it out there as it seems quasi-reasonable for what I could come up with in a few seconds.

Here's a site that I believe is regressing the net ratings and has the Bulls in a similar range:

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/ranking/predictive-by-other/

I fear you are right and I am wrong. While factoring in the schedule, I failed to factor in Billy Donovan managing to get the least possible out of each of his players. Coby, and eventually Pwill, back in the starting lineup can lead us directly to that 33 win total you predicted.

I am still holding out for .500 though.