Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[GoBlue72391]

giddey can easily be a #2, i just have no idea how we obtain #1.

I think him being a #2 is a huge stretch. He's not a natural scorer. He seems like an ideal #3 or #4 for a contending team if his end of season run was real and if his defense can be covered by his teammates.

Giddey and Coby is an either/or situation. You can't commit to your whole backcourt being awful defensively. You can hide one guy on defense but not multiple.

[dougthonus]

Giddey being bottom quartile in all three of those categories is utter nonsense. Anyone can look up any number of metrics or stats to disprove all of these easily.

I said he was really bad over the first 50 games, and I'm referring to creating an advantage off the dribble as a primary ball handler, and there really is no stat that shows that, or if there is, I'm happy for you to show it to me. He had a TS% of 54%, that's a woefully inadequate number for that role over that time.

There are no meaningful defensive stats that have any real statistical value, so yes, that is gut feel there too, and in the first 2/3rds of the season he was an absolute train wreck on defense IMO, if you disagree then fair enough.

So you're citing specific statistical criteria (bottom 25th percentile) then saying the actual data is completely arbitrary. So if another random person thinks Giddey is a 99th percentile defender, that statement is just as valid.

I have rephrased. I do not mean my criteria to be objective numbers, I believe them to be a subjective opinion about how I viewed him as a bottom quartile player in terms of off-ball effectiveness, defensive effectiveness, and as a primary on-ball player over a time frame of the first 50 games of the season. No different than when other people in this thread say "he's average at defense".

This is a subjective opinion of mine based on watching the majority of the games and seeing teams not stand within 15 feet of him over that time period when he does not have the ball, show extremely low effort on defense and miss assignments regularly and being the most likely player to be hunted on defense, while on offense he generated a really low TS% (54%) over this time frame which is horribly low and did not generate meaningful FT attempts or efficient offense.

If you want to argue differently, be my guest. I'm open to changing my mind about Giddey's first 50 games in these three categories if you have something meaningful to present as a counter argument. You can also simply disagree and not present anything else, because I would guess it is really hard to come up with a way to argue these points objectively.

I also stated in other threads really it is whether you believe his very significant improvement in the last 30 games was due to competition, real improvement, change in team dynamics etc... If the primary driver was variance and competition playing very poorly, then you should feel far worse about Giddey than if the change was due to team dynamics / real improvement.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

I think he signs a 3+ year deal - I don't think he has much of a choice. I think its too big a risk for him to sign the QO - he'll take the 60+ million guaranteed the Bulls are offering now and hope to cash in on the next deal (as if 60 million isn't 'cashing in').

[waffle]

giddey can easily be a #2, i just have no idea how we obtain #1.

yes I should say a 2

and yes I agree with your other statement.

This does not, however, mean we shouldn't sign him.

BOTTOM line with team construction is 1) can a player be a useful part of a GOOD team and 2) IF #1 is true can a team be constructed that best utilizes the sum of the parts, including the aforementioned player

I think 1 is true for Giddey and I think the Bulls are starting to pick a lane, but like many on this board I am not sold that the Bulls FO is up to the task

[TheJordanRule]

If he's the dude he was during the early part of the year, Idk how you say we'd need to just straight up let him walk, brother. Josh could still defend other SFs, and still demonstrate incredible court vision, Doug. TBH I tend to view those scoring bonanzas in the last 30 as outliers. I think we use the first 50 as a bargaining chip and get him at discount. 20 - 25 mil per year would be a deal that's likely to favor us as his game blossoms. He's still very much a young kid headed to his prime.

Name a player that is a meaningful player in the past 25 years that fits these three things that are true about Giddey:
1: A bottom 25th percentile defender
2: A bottom 25th percentile off-ball player
3: A guy whom cannot create off the dribble

I cannot think of one, and even if I could, I'd say outlier. Maybe Giddey will be the absolute fricken unicorn of terrible defender, off-ball players that also can't create off the dribble, but I'm willing to say that type of player generally is simply not a meaningful player. First 50 games Giddey was that dude.

I cannot deny points #1 & #2, brother. But Josh is a playmaker who creates off the dribble, Doug. Surely you've noticed. You're far more observant than I am. I know Josh doesn't bring the ISO scoring ala Coby but that court vision and a deep understanding of Xs and Os makes an impact. His Lonzo-ish IQ on the floor on one end of the floor is a huge part of why the team bought in as the year progressed. Opportunities are there that otherwise wouldn't be because he reads and reacts so well on offense. This is one of the reasons I consider Josh to be a core component, and why Coby doesn't exactly qualify. The hope with Josh is, even if he doesn't improve on defense, his deficiencies can be masked-- which I have a lot of hope for, actually, since he's big enough that we can switch him on to a SF and with Okoro and Jones alongside him as well as Buz, and hopefully a rim protecting agile center instead of Vuce, we can have a pittbull Top 5 defense even with him.

[HomoSapien]

The longer this goes on the more uneasy I start to feel. Not worried about losing him, but I also don't want a situation where we strong arm our way into a bringing back a disgruntled player.

[dougthonus]

I cannot deny points #1 & #2, brother. But Josh is a playmaker who creates off the dribble, Doug. Surely you've noticed. You're far more observant than I am. I know Josh doesn't bring the ISO scoring ala Coby but that court vision and a deep understanding of Xs and Os makes an impact. His Lonzo-ish IQ on the floor on one end of the floor is a huge part of why the team bought in as the year progressed. Opportunities are there that otherwise wouldn't be because he reads and reacts so well on offense. This is one of the reasons I consider Josh to be a core component, and why Coby doesn't exactly qualify. The hope with Josh is, even if he doesn't improve on defense, his deficiencies can be masked-- which I have a lot of hope for, actually, since he's big enough that we can switch him on to a SF and with Okoro and Jones alongside him as well as Buz, and hopefully a rim protecting agile center instead of Vuce, we can have a pittbull Top 5 defense even with him.

Two points of clarity:
1: I'm talking about his ability as an advantage creator as the primary on ball player. I don't think Giddey can consistently create an advantage against a set defense as the primary on ball player.

2: I quoted a specific time frame of the first 50 games.

Generally speaking, I've said you saw two very distinct versions of Giddey this past year, one looked like a really good player, and one looked like a bench player.

Many people seem very focused on the good player being whom you will get in an extension, and seem to feel there is no risk of getting the bench player version. I disagree with that. I think there's a reasonable chance you might get either version.

[drosestruts]

Giddey did leave the Olympics with an injured ankle, hard to tell how much that still affected him in the early parts of the season.

But yes, Giddey was bad to start the year.

I suppose there's a risk that that's the "real Giddey"

It's just not a fear I have, but I can see why one would

[waffle]

well, that talent didn't just APPEAR. What you are talking about then is Ceiling, and his ceiling, as supported by the last 1/3rd of the season, has a pretty darn high ceiling. The only explanation then for reverting to early season Giddey is 1) he's lazy or 2) he's injured

[nomorezorro]

The longer this goes on the more uneasy I start to feel. Not worried about losing him, but I also don't want a situation where we strong arm our way into a bringing back a disgruntled player.

ignoring the fact that we are less than 72 hours into the free agency negotiation window: what are the examples of a protracted restricted free agency period ruining the relationship between a player and a team where every indication going in is that both sides want to come to an agreement?

the closest thing i'm aware of is the ben gordon situation, but that was a case where we actively pulled our best offer despite him eventually wanting to take it, so obviously we weren't particularly motivated to make things work. it was also 17 years ago, so on its own it's not really a data point that suggests this is a common thing that we have to be worried about.

he might have sore feelings if this drags out. he'll have tens of millions of dollars to get over it.

[nomorezorro]

well, that talent didn't just APPEAR. What you are talking about then is Ceiling, and his ceiling, as supported by the last 1/3rd of the season, has a pretty darn high ceiling. The only explanation then for reverting to early season Giddey is 1) he's lazy or 2) he's injured

or sometimes people have a short stretch where they play significantly better than they usually do, for a variety of reasons that are not sustainable

[Red8911]

If Giddey tried to be DeMar it wouldn't go well, I agree.

Giddey is not a player you can drop anywhere and he will work (as evidence by his exit from the Thunder - though I do feel the "badness" of his fit is enitrely overblown, but that's probably a separate discussion).

To be clear, back to my original post, I said "Giddey over the first 50 games was that guy". I didn't say "Giddey is this guy". I said there is a risk depending on how you weigh 50 games against meaningful competition where everyone is trying to win vs 30 games largely against tanking competition where our opponents are throwing out G-League rosters and how much of his change was based on what.

But Giddey does have unique and standout strengths, and one thing I've been happy to see is us playing to those strengths - primarily in pace.

Giddey is a great rebounder and will immediatley look to push the pace. Even off made baskets he's quickly getting the ball inbounded and attacking. We saw the Pacers utterly wear teams out throughout the playoffs implementing a similar strategy.

Giddey's "iso" scoring is often much less breaking down someone off the dribble, but rather his good first step and length atacking the rim.

It's under the "iso" umbrella, but I'd agree that it's very different than what many coloquially refer to when talking about "iso scoring"

Can Giddey be a part of a winning team - I'd say yes, I'm someone who believes our end of season performance was real (as was the Pacers and Trailblazers).

It does require to play a specific way (which we are) and assemble other peices around him that fits this style (looking at you Vuc).

I agree all of this might be true too.

I'm mostly arguing against the narrative that this is definitively true and what seems to be many people ignoring the possibility that the issues I mentioned are going to resurface against meaningful competition.

Look first 50 games I agree Josh wasn’t that good and was very inconsistent. Once Zach left though he started having more control of the offense, had a much bigger role and showed us what he can do and he did it quite well.

Don’t forget he was also 22 playing on a new team. It is perfectly logical for him to need time and the right role to be more comfortable.

Im confident that the player we saw post Zach is the player he is and will continue to be (when/if he actually resigns).

Idk why you’re trying to diminish him as a player saying he did it only against tanking teams? That’s nonsense he played well against any team, it wasn’t just vs tanking teams.

Also there was plenty of times where he drove past his opponents to score, uses his size to his advantage and it’s one of his strengths.

[Red8911]

Giddey did leave the Olympics with an injured ankle, hard to tell how much that still affected him in the early parts of the season.

But yes, Giddey was bad to start the year.

I suppose there's a risk that that's the "real Giddey"

It's just not a fear I have, but I can see why one would

Yup forgot about that, he only started practicing right when camp/preseason started. That played a role as well for sure.

[Bulliever2020]

As has been mentioned, my main concern with Giddey is he looked good ONLY when he was given free reign on a team that just traded their best player. Will he be able to co-exist and lessen his usage and still be efficient in a reduced role when we eventually find our #1 and even #2 players for this team? How effective will he be playing off ball? Will he improve enough on defense to not be relentlessly targeted in a playoff situation where every weakness is exploited to a greater degree than a meaningless regular season game? Will his improved shooting percentages sustain or will he still be a guy where the opposing team goes under screens for and sags off of and dares to shoot? These are the questions that make me doubt whether he's a guy I want as a core piece on this team going forward.

[boozapalooza]

[
But hasnt Josh already proven that his floor is somewhere in the middle? As a 20 year old 2nd year player he put up 17/8/6 over 76 games. That was while shooting 32% from 3. OKC wouldve hung up the phone if we offered Caruso for him straight up after year 2. His personal life imploded year 3 and his game was affected, and we were able to buy low.

Hes 22 years old and has shown what he can do in this offense when he has the keys. 21/10/9 post all star break. Hes so young and still improving. I think his upside is immense from a stats perspective. I really love what Giddey is capable of doing for us over the next 4-5 years as he continues to improve as a player.

Every argument that simply lists counting stats is not a meaningful argument to me.

Explain to me instead how a guy whom is not even defended off the ball, isn't anywhere near good enough to be the primary on ball guy, and is awful on defense fits into a contending team? The answer is they don't.

Some people feel more positive about those traits than me though, if you do, then I can see why you'd feel differently, but I believe those three things are still true about Giddey. At the right price, I think he's okay, but that price isn't 30M. At 30M, I think he's just a bad contract.

Why cant he be the primary on ball guy? He makes **** happen when the ball is in his hands. I was impressed by his ability to drive on guys, its not like hes exceptionaly quick, but hes got enough speed in combination with his size to beat guys off the dribble. Hes also an extremely talented passer with a knack for finding the open guy and keeping the ball moving. Doesnt always lead to an assist but it opens up the offense. His shot improved enough to keep defenses honest too, not just left wide open

[TheJordanRule]

I cannot deny points #1 & #2, brother. But Josh is a playmaker who creates off the dribble, Doug. Surely you've noticed. You're far more observant than I am. I know Josh doesn't bring the ISO scoring ala Coby but that court vision and a deep understanding of Xs and Os makes an impact. His Lonzo-ish IQ on the floor on one end of the floor is a huge part of why the team bought in as the year progressed. Opportunities are there that otherwise wouldn't be because he reads and reacts so well on offense. This is one of the reasons I consider Josh to be a core component, and why Coby doesn't exactly qualify. The hope with Josh is, even if he doesn't improve on defense, his deficiencies can be masked-- which I have a lot of hope for, actually, since he's big enough that we can switch him on to a SF and with Okoro and Jones alongside him as well as Buz, and hopefully a rim protecting agile center instead of Vuce, we can have a pittbull Top 5 defense even with him.

Two points of clarity:
1: I'm talking about his ability as an advantage creator as the primary on ball player. I don't think Giddey can consistently create an advantage against a set defense as the primary on ball player.

2: I quoted a specific time frame of the first 50 games.

Generally speaking, I've said you saw two very distinct versions of Giddey this past year, one looked like a really good player, and one looked like a bench player.

Many people seem very focused on the good player being whom you will get in an extension, and seem to feel there is no risk of getting the bench player version. I disagree with that. I think there's a reasonable chance you might get either version.

How high is the risk that Josh will return to his previously established floor in your estimation? Please consider the following:
-Age: He's only 22. So young he could still be a draft pick, and if he had been in the last draft, he would have been within the Top 2 of the first round. We would have been so giddy to get Giddey if that was happening through the draft lol!
-He had seven triple doubles last season, including some when he was in the "bad" early stretch.
-His usage started at 26 % continued to climb to 31.4 % as the year progressed and so did his assist rate, which indicates two things: 1. the team expanded his role in response to his effectiveness 2. he was up to shouldering the increased burden.
-Thriving after adversity (call him P Giddey j/k) post All-Star break indicates a Kobe mentality.
-Increased experience tends to lead to smarter choices, which is relevant for the PG position.
I realize I can't hide the fact that I'm pretty because I'm so high on this kid, and it was an absolute joy watching him grow last year. I can't remember the last time I said that about a kid on our roster.

[dougthonus]

Why cant he be the primary on ball guy? He makes **** happen when the ball is in his hands. I was impressed by his ability to drive on guys, its not like hes exceptionaly quick, but hes got enough speed in combination with his size to beat guys off the dribble. Hes also an extremely talented passer with a knack for finding the open guy and keeping the ball moving. Doesnt always lead to an assist but it opens up the offense. His shot improved enough to keep defenses honest too, not just left wide open

Maybe he can be. The guy who is a primary on ball guy is generally a max level superstar. I don't think Giddey is that guy. If you do, fair enough. If you think the primary on ball guy can be a good but not great player and you still have a great team, I disagree (or we're defining primary on ball guy differently).

[waffle]

well, that talent didn't just APPEAR. What you are talking about then is Ceiling, and his ceiling, as supported by the last 1/3rd of the season, has a pretty darn high ceiling. The only explanation then for reverting to early season Giddey is 1) he's lazy or 2) he's injured

or sometimes people have a short stretch where they play significantly better than they usually do, for a variety of reasons that are not sustainable

Which, technically, is still ceiling, and 1/3rd of a season I think is NOT a SSS...that's a good stretch of good basketball

[GoBlue72391]

well, that talent didn't just APPEAR. What you are talking about then is Ceiling, and his ceiling, as supported by the last 1/3rd of the season, has a pretty darn high ceiling. The only explanation then for reverting to early season Giddey is 1) he's lazy or 2) he's injured

Those are not the only 2 reasons and every player has stretches of great play, but it doesn't mean it's their ceiling.

We don't know what the real Giddey is.

[HomoSapien]

The longer this goes on the more uneasy I start to feel. Not worried about losing him, but I also don't want a situation where we strong arm our way into a bringing back a disgruntled player.

ignoring the fact that we are less than 72 hours into the free agency negotiation window: what are the examples of a protracted restricted free agency period ruining the relationship between a player and a team where every indication going in is that both sides want to come to an agreement?

the closest thing i'm aware of is the ben gordon situation, but that was a case where we actively pulled our best offer despite him eventually wanting to take it, so obviously we weren't particularly motivated to make things work. it was also 17 years ago, so on its own it's not really a data point that suggests this is a common thing that we have to be worried about.

he might have sore feelings if this drags out. he'll have tens of millions of dollars to get over it.

Ayton and the Suns is a recent example.