OT: COVID-19 thread #2

[AKfanatic]

KENTUCKY REPORTS HIGHEST CORONAVIRUS INFECTION INCREASE AFTER A WEEK OF PROTESTS TO REOPEN STATE

[Dresden]

KENTUCKY REPORTS HIGHEST CORONAVIRUS INFECTION INCREASE AFTER A WEEK OF PROTESTS TO REOPEN STATE

Sad, but you could see that coming.

[Dresden]

Another anti-body test, this time from LA:

"Of the 1,000 individuals tested in early April, 4.1 percent were found to have COVID-19 antibodies. When adjusting for statistical margin of error, the study finds that 2.8 percent to 5.6 percent of the county's adult population has already been infected, which translates to 221,000 to 442,000 people. There were nearly 8,000 confirmed cases when the study was conducted, which leads researchers to believe the county is underreporting infections by a factor of 28 to 55."

...

If infections are this vastly underreported, then the mortality rate of COVID-19 is substantially lower than current estimates."

It's possible these testing kits are flawed, but they all seem to be showing similarly high rates of COVID 19 infection among the populations tested. These tests so far have all been done in communities known to have high or fairly high rates of infection, so these results wouldn't be accurate for the whole country.

[Nikola]

Another anti-body test, this time from LA:

"Of the 1,000 individuals tested in early April, 4.1 percent were found to have COVID-19 antibodies. When adjusting for statistical margin of error, the study finds that 2.8 percent to 5.6 percent of the county's adult population has already been infected, which translates to 221,000 to 442,000 people. There were nearly 8,000 confirmed cases when the study was conducted, which leads researchers to believe the county is underreporting infections by a factor of 28 to 55."

...

If infections are this vastly underreported, then the mortality rate of COVID-19 is substantially lower than current estimates."

It's possible these testing kits are flawed, but they all seem to be showing similarly high rates of COVID 19 infection among the populations tested. These tests so far have all been done in communities known to have high or fairly high rates of infection, so these results wouldn't be accurate for the whole country.

A factor of 28 to 55 would be much higher than 2.8-5.6% at this point. Based on those numbers Covid would be in line with just the regular flu in terms of mortality.

[samwana]

Munich cancelled the world famous 'Oktoberfest' for this year already.
Many more existences killed, people living from these 3 weeks just got their income reduced to 0.

[Ccwatercraft]

That seems unreal. So they are producing all this oil each day, and there is literally no place to put it? Are there no empty oil tankers around? How long would it take to build storage tanks to add to capacity? Couldn't it be stored underground somehow? Very bizarre.

Strategic Petroleum reserve has room I think.

[Ccwatercraft]

KENTUCKY REPORTS HIGHEST CORONAVIRUS INFECTION INCREASE AFTER A WEEK OF PROTESTS TO REOPEN STATE

Sad, but you could see that coming.

Are you suggesting that the protests increased the numbers?

[dougthonus]

KENTUCKY REPORTS HIGHEST CORONAVIRUS INFECTION INCREASE AFTER A WEEK OF PROTESTS TO REOPEN STATE

Sad, but you could see that coming.

Are you suggesting that the protests increased the numbers?

I think the assumption is that people are protesting while things are getting worse. While certainly possible that large gatherings like protests could infect lots of people, you likely wouldn't see that this quickly.

[Ccwatercraft]

Sad, but you could see that coming.

Are you suggesting that the protests increased the numbers?

I think the assumption is that people are protesting while things are getting worse. While certainly possible that large gatherings like protests could infect lots of people, you likely wouldn't see that this quickly.

Depends on the POV, business owners are likely going broke faster than the cases are growing. I can see both sides.

Most of the protesters are fringe types anyway IMO.

[dougthonus]

Depends on the POV, business owners are likely going broke faster than the cases are growing. I can see both sides.

Most of the protesters are fringe types anyway IMO.

I wasn't arguing about the merits of reopening or not reopening. I was only stating what I felt the article implied.

I agree it's a complicated issue on what to do with work. I do think that if we were smart we could open up lots of areas of the economy faster than we are or not have shut them down in the first place.

[Dresden]

KENTUCKY REPORTS HIGHEST CORONAVIRUS INFECTION INCREASE AFTER A WEEK OF PROTESTS TO REOPEN STATE

Sad, but you could see that coming.

Are you suggesting that the protests increased the numbers?

Not definitely in this state, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was. Odds are some people will contract the virus during the protests that are going on. It's just a numbers game. Many of them are not practicing social distancing, and inevitably we will see some new cases as a result.

[Dresden]

Sad, but you could see that coming.

Are you suggesting that the protests increased the numbers?

I think the assumption is that people are protesting while things are getting worse. While certainly possible that large gatherings like protests could infect lots of people, you likely wouldn't see that this quickly.

If protests were a week ago, that's enough time for symptoms to start showing up.

[dougthonus]

If protests were a week ago, that's enough time for symptoms to start showing up.

Sure, but that isn't what the article is suggesting if you read it, and it would likely be easy to track if it were the case.

[Ccwatercraft]

Are you suggesting that the protests increased the numbers?

I think the assumption is that people are protesting while things are getting worse. While certainly possible that large gatherings like protests could infect lots of people, you likely wouldn't see that this quickly.

If protests were a week ago, that's enough time for symptoms to start showing up.

A trip to the grocery store is likely just as risky.

Working at one is probably 10x as risky.

I heard today on the news that 24 (I think that was the figure) grocery store employees have died across the country that's an incredibly small number considering the exposure. I asked the mgr at my local chain (100+ employees) zero infected.

[Dresden]

I think the assumption is that people are protesting while things are getting worse. While certainly possible that large gatherings like protests could infect lots of people, you likely wouldn't see that this quickly.

If protests were a week ago, that's enough time for symptoms to start showing up.

A trip to the grocery store is likely just as risky.

Working at one is probably 10x as risky.

I heard today on the news that 24 (I think that was the figure) grocery store employees have died across the country that's an incredibly small number considering the exposure. I asked the mgr at my local chain (100+ employees) zero infected.

Yeah, it could be a lot of things. And working at a grocery store does seem super risky. But at least those people all are wearing PPE now. Some of these protesters are not wearing any protection, and I've seen some photos where they are gathering in crowds fairly close to each other. You'd think grocery store infections would also be pretty stable over time, but if they saw a spike in infections a week after the protests, it could indeed be coming from the protests. Or from Easter Sunday church services.

[Ccwatercraft]

If protests were a week ago, that's enough time for symptoms to start showing up.

A trip to the grocery store is likely just as risky.

Working at one is probably 10x as risky.

I heard today on the news that 24 (I think that was the figure) grocery store employees have died across the country that's an incredibly small number considering the exposure. I asked the mgr at my local chain (100+ employees) zero infected.

Yeah, it could be a lot of things. And working at a grocery store does seem super risky. But at least those people all are wearing PPE now. Some of these protesters are not wearing any protection, and I've seen some photos where they are gathering in crowds fairly close to each other. You'd think grocery store infections would also be pretty stable over time, but if they saw a spike in infections a week after the protests, it could indeed be coming from the protests. Or from Easter Sunday church services.

Or increase in testing. or just a coincidence. Ps my cashier's are wearing masks but not the stockers or bag boys and they just started this past weekend so they were exposed to hundreds of people for a few weeks. If they tested every employee they would likely find a high # with antibodies.

[johnnyvann840]

So that's actually on futures contracts that are due to expire tomorrow- someone will pay you as much as $37/barrel just to take it off their hands. But a month from now, prices are around $20 (on the positive side). So I suppose they figure by then, they'll have figured out a place to put it, or demand will come back.

It went so deep because everyone is stuck but only May had no limit. So other contracts were gold mines if you could sell at limit.

I don't see the demand coming back that much by June to support $20 Barrel prices. So I have a feeling that those June Futures contracts are going to crash pretty hard.

Jesus.. June down to 12.49. All the experts were saying yesterday that June would stay at 20.00 but it was just like common sense. What people don't realize is that even if the President came out and said he was buying all the oil and putting it into the country's strategic reserves it would take over a month. It just doesn't happen like that. There is no storage for May delivery... whatever was left was bought and that is why the May contract that expires today went back up to 4.00-5.00. But now we have an even worse problem for June. What has to happen is either the nation is opened back up and people start driving/flying again, or the big oil companies are going to have to stop pumping and just leave it in the ground which will cost them a fortune that even they can't handle for very long.

[johnnyvann840]

make that 11.96. wow. What a play June long puts (options betting on the June contract tanking) with a strike of say 15.00 would have made some serious money. They weren't "cheap", but cheap enough if they were far enough away.

[dougthonus]

make that 11.96. wow. What a play June long puts (options betting on the June contract tanking) with a strike of say 15.00 would have made some serious money. They weren't "cheap", but cheap enough if they were far enough away.

You could probably make the same play with July now if you were so inclined. I don't know what the July price is, but odds are the economy is not going to open so fast that oil is going to take off.

[Dresden]

make that 11.96. wow. What a play June long puts (options betting on the June contract tanking) with a strike of say 15.00 would have made some serious money. They weren't "cheap", but cheap enough if they were far enough away.

You seem to be very knowledgeable on this subject. Is that part of your profession?