OT: future of jobs or lack thereof

[sco]

Look, eventually we'll all have robots who go to work for us so we can watch more Bulls (robots) games.

[PaKii94]

To make this OT thread a bit more OT. This discussion might not even be relevant if the AI revolution does happen : https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html

[League Circles]

To make this OT thread a bit more OT. This discussion might not even be relevant if the AI revolution does happen : https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html

Yeah, the big question IMO is, how long will the lag be between AI/robots being able to do our work for us and the time when the masses are able to enjoy the fruits of the advancements. Basically, how long will the controlling parties take to transition from a wealth hoarding mindset to a benevolent one. I don't really have a value judgment on it but I could easily imagine it being decades or even hundreds of years.

[dice]

I think universal basic rations will be, and should be, more likely to come about than universal basic income. To take the profit margins out of our basic necessities of food, water and shelter. I think there will be, and should be, major state run industries for these.

People generally spend money very unwisely on an individual level, even if they're smart. UBI would exacerbate that problem and cause excessive inflation IMO.

the UBI should be tied to GDP and (obviously) phased in. market forces would create an equilibrium. and perhaps, as you say, there should be a basic necessities option provided by the government en lieu of cash (housing, food). but obviously those things wouldn't be necessary for those who are doing OK financially. maybe if someone squanders their cash they can get an advance on their next distribution, but only in the form of government-provided basic necessities

I think GDP is to economics what points per game is to bball stats, or worse frankly. It's a nonsense measure that tricks society into confusing activity with productivity.

that may be true, but this discussion isn't about productivity. it's about distribution of wealth. and GDP measures wealth

If you could get free food, shelter, clothing of adequate quality, I don't know why anyone would work all day. Work sucks for 99% of people.

I've got news for ya: there ARE places where you can get gov-provided food and housing. and yet, somehow, their economies did not crumble

people work because they want to IMPROVE their lives, not just to get by. if that were not the case the workforce would be much smaller because people would only work until they could afford to retire (which for many people is decades before age 65 or whatever). hell, the average college graduate would only need to work into his or her 40s if they didn't care about their quality of life

and by the way, a UBI would not reasonably be large enough to be a living wage (but with single payer health care people wouldn't necessarily need to work 40 hour workweeks either). also, and I find this dubious, but 20% of people report being passionate about their jobs

[Dominator83]

While it's a shame that last thread was locked, it's understandable. But a silver lining is, there was a good offseason style discussion brewing about how jobs are rapidly disappearing. Would like to build on that one.

Personally, I've been saying for several years now that while this whole Internet and digital age is nice and all, it's also the worst thing that ever happened to the economy. Sure, it's created some companies and jobs, but it's also wiped out a hell of a lot more than its created imo. Video rental industry? Completely wiped out. Retail stores? Being wiped out unless your target or Walmart. Newspaper industry? Barely hanging on. CD/DVD distribution and businesses? Gone. And those are just a few examples. There's many many more and it ain't gonna get better.

Best things left to get into IMO: medical, teaching, real estate, law enforcement, chef, and skilled trades (mechanic, HVAC, plumbing, etc)

These are pretty Internet safe industries. But not nearly enough to fill an entire population.

By the way, real estate and medicine will get automated at some point too. Real estate sooner rather than later. Finance is a good industry still but will be automated too.

But the industries that you mentioned that are whipped out deserve to be. They got replaced with better alternatives. It technological evolution and it is nothing new in the grand scheme of existence. I am sure the people who sold horse and buggies were pretty upset when cars became mainstream. Or locomotive and commercial ship operators when airplanes became safe.

Really? I've bought 2 houses in my life and sold 1.the 2nd being thru a realtor that specifically takes on short sales /auction houses. Don't really see how the Internet could've showed me those houses (other than pics, which doesn't tell the whole story) that I saw while shopping. And conversely, showed several shoppers mine before finding one to make a deal with. Internet is definitely huge with the shopping process. But you gotta see the houses your buying in person.

But I'm guessing you probably know something I don't so I'm sure it's not impossible

[transplant]

Luckily for me, the world will still need good bartenders for a long time!

You don't think a machine will replace bartenders like soda dispensers.

Only the upscale places will use them. But we are a long way off of that.

That's the obvious answer, and certainly a large percentage of drinkers would be OK buying a pint from a machine at a game, but my career is about 2% pouring-a-pint and 98% tending a bar. Star Wars and Star Trek have space bars! My niche will survive!!

I agree. I have no interest in having a machine telling me I'm not as big an a-hole as everyone says...wouldn't be the same.

[Ctownbulls]

While it's a shame that last thread was locked, it's understandable. But a silver lining is, there was a good offseason style discussion brewing about how jobs are rapidly disappearing. Would like to build on that one.

Personally, I've been saying for several years now that while this whole Internet and digital age is nice and all, it's also the worst thing that ever happened to the economy. Sure, it's created some companies and jobs, but it's also wiped out a hell of a lot more than its created imo. Video rental industry? Completely wiped out. Retail stores? Being wiped out unless your target or Walmart. Newspaper industry? Barely hanging on. CD/DVD distribution and businesses? Gone. And those are just a few examples. There's many many more and it ain't gonna get better.

Best things left to get into IMO: medical, teaching, real estate, law enforcement, chef, and skilled trades (mechanic, HVAC, plumbing, etc)

These are pretty Internet safe industries. But not nearly enough to fill an entire population.

By the way, real estate and medicine will get automated at some point too. Real estate sooner rather than later. Finance is a good industry still but will be automated too.

But the industries that you mentioned that are whipped out deserve to be. They got replaced with better alternatives. It technological evolution and it is nothing new in the grand scheme of existence. I am sure the people who sold horse and buggies were pretty upset when cars became mainstream. Or locomotive and commercial ship operators when airplanes became safe.

Really? I've bought 2 houses in my life and sold 1.the 2nd being thru a realtor that specifically takes on short sales /auction houses. Don't really see how the Internet could've showed me those houses (other than pics, which doesn't tell the whole story) that I saw while shopping. And conversely, showed several shoppers mine before finding one to make a deal with. Internet is definitely huge with the shopping process. But you gotta see the houses your buying in person.

But I'm guessing you probably know something I don't so I'm sure it's not impossible

Virtual reality will change how people initially look at homes while will make actually seeing as many homes as necessary. I am also assuming that eventually pre-approved buyers/users will be able to enter homes through biometric authentication at specific times without a broker there.

Real estate companies are definitely exploring ways to pay brokers less, use them less, or cut them out completely.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

[Hangtime84]

By the way, real estate and medicine will get automated at some point too. Real estate sooner rather than later. Finance is a good industry still but will be automated too.

But the industries that you mentioned that are whipped out deserve to be. They got replaced with better alternatives. It technological evolution and it is nothing new in the grand scheme of existence. I am sure the people who sold horse and buggies were pretty upset when cars became mainstream. Or locomotive and commercial ship operators when airplanes became safe.

Really? I've bought 2 houses in my life and sold 1.the 2nd being thru a realtor that specifically takes on short sales /auction houses. Don't really see how the Internet could've showed me those houses (other than pics, which doesn't tell the whole story) that I saw while shopping. And conversely, showed several shoppers mine before finding one to make a deal with. Internet is definitely huge with the shopping process. But you gotta see the houses your buying in person.

But I'm guessing you probably know something I don't so I'm sure it's not impossible

Virtual reality will change how people initially look at homes while will make actually seeing as many homes as necessary. I am also assuming that eventually pre-approved buyers/users will be able to enter homes through biometric authentication at specific times without a broker there.

Real estate companies are definitely exploring ways to pay brokers less, use them less, or cut them out completely.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

If you talking about real estate/construction AR will have a bigger impact to me. VR is nice but the renderings still look like early 90s computer game (early days Wolfenstein) until graphics and processing speeds increase.

There machines out right now that can build an entire building without using a single "trade worker".

[dougthonus]

Yeah, the big question IMO is, how long will the lag be between AI/robots being able to do our work for us and the time when the masses are able to enjoy the fruits of the advancements. Basically, how long will the controlling parties take to transition from a wealth hoarding mindset to a benevolent one. I don't really have a value judgment on it but I could easily imagine it being decades or even hundreds of years.

At the point where people can "have" without taking from others, then the transition will happen naturally. If AI/Robot revolution works out in the best way possible, there willb e nothing left to hoard because it is all available for free and irrelevant to roll out to everyone.

[Ctownbulls]

Really? I've bought 2 houses in my life and sold 1.the 2nd being thru a realtor that specifically takes on short sales /auction houses. Don't really see how the Internet could've showed me those houses (other than pics, which doesn't tell the whole story) that I saw while shopping. And conversely, showed several shoppers mine before finding one to make a deal with. Internet is definitely huge with the shopping process. But you gotta see the houses your buying in person.

But I'm guessing you probably know something I don't so I'm sure it's not impossible

Virtual reality will change how people initially look at homes while will make actually seeing as many homes as necessary. I am also assuming that eventually pre-approved buyers/users will be able to enter homes through biometric authentication at specific times without a broker there.

Real estate companies are definitely exploring ways to pay brokers less, use them less, or cut them out completely.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

If you talking about real estate/construction AR will have a bigger impact to me. VR is nice but the renderings still look like early 90s computer game (early days Wolfenstein) until graphics and processing speeds increase.

There machines out right now that can build an entire building without using a single "trade worker".

Sorry, I meant AR or whatever the technology is that makes you feel like you are there. The same techology the NBA is starting to tinker with to make you feel like you are courtside.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

[Hangtime84]

Virtual reality will change how people initially look at homes while will make actually seeing as many homes as necessary. I am also assuming that eventually pre-approved buyers/users will be able to enter homes through biometric authentication at specific times without a broker there.

Real estate companies are definitely exploring ways to pay brokers less, use them less, or cut them out completely.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

If you talking about real estate/construction AR will have a bigger impact to me. VR is nice but the renderings still look like early 90s computer game (early days Wolfenstein) until graphics and processing speeds increase.

There machines out right now that can build an entire building without using a single "trade worker".

Sorry, I meant AR or whatever the technology is that makes you feel like you are there. The same techology the NBA is starting to tinker with to make you feel like you are courtside.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

Lots of things being done in sports are very applicable to real estate. AR augmented reality like pokemon go. Ikea is using it to help people learn how to use to assemble their furniture right now.

I'm a VR fan just feel like we about 30 years away from that. (which isn't really that long from now)

[Dominator83]

Really? I've bought 2 houses in my life and sold 1.the 2nd being thru a realtor that specifically takes on short sales /auction houses. Don't really see how the Internet could've showed me those houses (other than pics, which doesn't tell the whole story) that I saw while shopping. And conversely, showed several shoppers mine before finding one to make a deal with. Internet is definitely huge with the shopping process. But you gotta see the houses your buying in person.

But I'm guessing you probably know something I don't so I'm sure it's not impossible

Virtual reality will change how people initially look at homes while will make actually seeing as many homes as necessary. I am also assuming that eventually pre-approved buyers/users will be able to enter homes through biometric authentication at specific times without a broker there.

Real estate companies are definitely exploring ways to pay brokers less, use them less, or cut them out completely.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

If you talking about real estate/construction AR will have a bigger impact to me. VR is nice but the renderings still look like early 90s computer game (early days Wolfenstein) until graphics and processing speeds increase.

There machines out right now that can build an entire building without using a single "trade worker".

Its really a shame the way we just keep looking for ways to unemploy America. Down the line it's gonna get real ugly. Crimes gonna go up due to people having less and less ways to feed their families (think Dennis Leary in demolition man) and also, we think America's bankrupt now? Well it's gonna get a lot worse because who's gonna be paying taxes if nobody's working?

[Hangtime84]

It's really a shame the way we just keep looking for ways to unemploy America. Down the line, it's gonna get real ugly. Crimes gonna go up due to people having less and less ways to feed their families (think Dennis Leary in demolition man) and also, we think America's bankrupt now? Well, it's gonna get a lot worse because who's gonna be paying taxes if nobody's working?

Humans will always find something else to do.

Just as the internet gave new ways to complain about things.

There will always be a guy who will have to maintain said machines and fix them. Teams will be smaller, adaptable and more coordinated.

When the next generation (whom are 8 years and younger today) becomes the mature "workforce" typical late 20s and early 40s. They will know an only know a world where then they touch a screen they expect something to happen. The demand for immediate feedback will only grow.

By that time people in their late 20s & 40s today around that time will be 60s or 70s and will be begging for less manually intensive work. Who knows maybe around that time cryptocurrency might be a normal thing.

[transplant]

The unemployment rate is decreasing. I have no doubt that the availability of jobs that folks believe they deserve are in short supply. Not sure this has ever not been the case.

[Hangtime84]

The unemployment rate is decreasing. I have no doubt that the availability of jobs that folks believe they deserve are in short supply. Not sure this has ever not been the case.

yup since Obama era. Not sure how much lower it's gonna get.

https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-rate-by-year-3305506

[Ctownbulls]

Virtual reality will change how people initially look at homes while will make actually seeing as many homes as necessary. I am also assuming that eventually pre-approved buyers/users will be able to enter homes through biometric authentication at specific times without a broker there.

Real estate companies are definitely exploring ways to pay brokers less, use them less, or cut them out completely.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

If you talking about real estate/construction AR will have a bigger impact to me. VR is nice but the renderings still look like early 90s computer game (early days Wolfenstein) until graphics and processing speeds increase.

There machines out right now that can build an entire building without using a single "trade worker".

Its really a shame the way we just keep looking for ways to unemploy America. Down the line it's gonna get real ugly. Crimes gonna go up due to people having less and less ways to feed their families (think Dennis Leary in demolition man) and also, we think America's bankrupt now? Well it's gonna get a lot worse because who's gonna be paying taxes if nobody's working?

Technology and advancement creates jobs too...it creates new industries and new products. Obviously, a lot of current or historically relevant professions become irrelevant...and that is okay too.

[HoopsterJones]

On a very vaguely related note, I am three episodes into Westworld. My fellow futurist - minded friend said I'd love it. Just OK so far IMO. Does it get awesome?

Season 1 is great. Season 2 is good but not as good as season 1. It’s worth watching though.

[dougthonus]

To make this OT thread a bit more OT. This discussion might not even be relevant if the AI revolution does happen : https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html

If you go on to part 2, it's a very dark future that the author proposes.

I don't think the AI revolution will look like this for a few reasons though. I think it makes some assumptions about compute power (ie that intelligence can improve exponentially without exponential improvement of hardware, that intelligence is capable of resolving anything if we were just smart enough (like there may be considerably greater physical limitations than let on), intelligence is limitless (and can be grown exponentially), that intelligence is really a one dimensional item rather than a wide swath of collections of various items.

Either way, I'm not quite so pessimistic as the author, though I do agree that there is a fair chance that AI ends all human life eventually.

[kodo]

The impact of technology isn't the reduction of jobs; it's that jobs can be outsourced around the globe.
And the education & skill level of global workers, even outside the EU, is rising making them more than viable alternative to US based employees.

20 years ago my tech industry was 100% locally based teams in major cities, Chicago/LA/Seattle.
Now, a minority of the people working on my projects are in a major US city and the majority around the globe. Key decision makers are always here & in CA, but there are very few of those jobs obviously.

Job creation is not the issue; it's whether the job created by us are going to young US kids or somewhere on the other side of the planet. Technology makes "the other side of the planet" easier every year.

Kids in the future may generate income less & less via their "job" and more through alternative revenue sources like patreon, streaming, etsy, and things like that. "Job" is becoming less & less important. I remember a nice story about a Destiny player who had cancer. His friends got him in touch with a streamer, and within 1 day the streamer generated $7000 for him.

We may move away from relying on companies to take care of you (they really don't want to be your parents btw) and communities taking care of each other.

[PaKii94]

To make this OT thread a bit more OT. This discussion might not even be relevant if the AI revolution does happen : https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html

If you go on to part 2, it's a very dark future that the author proposes.

I don't think the AI revolution will look like this for a few reasons though. I think it makes some assumptions about compute power (ie that intelligence can improve exponentially without exponential improvement of hardware, that intelligence is capable of resolving anything if we were just smart enough (like there may be considerably greater physical limitations than let on), intelligence is limitless (and can be grown exponentially), that intelligence is really a one dimensional item rather than a wide swath of collections of various items.

Either way, I'm not quite so pessimistic as the author, though I do agree that there is a fair chance that AI ends all human life eventually.

Yeah I've read it all a few times. I didn't link part two because if people do end up reading part 1, part 2 is a pretty much a must . I try to look at the optimistic side but there is a reason why the top minds are working on trying to lay down how to handle AI in the future. If those things aren't addressed now, it will definitely be too late when/if true AI comes into being: https://futureoflife.org/ai-safety-research

As far as technological advancement, he might be a little too optimistic but he did consult with the reputable futurists for his timelines. Even if he is too optimistic, I am a believer that it will eventually happen, probably not this decade, maybe not this century, what about by year 3000?