OT Election Thread

[Dresden]

I'm not so sure Trump will take "the South". FLA is a toss up, leaning blue. GA could well go blue. NC is a toss up. Even Texas may be in play for Biden.

The only southern states firmly red are AL, MS, SC, TN, KY, ARK.

Keyword "could" but unlikely. Those states above I expect to go red. Ignore the polls which have historically been wrong and in this election make it even more likely they're wrong.

This election will come down to the rust belt.

We'll know soon. Polls could also be off in the other direction this time, too.

[PlayerUp]

I'm with you on hating both candidates and both parties with a passion. I feel the same way. They are all corrupt, manipulating pond scum.

Part of the issue is America has become so diverse and so many people want different things that both parties are outright deceiving people making them believe they'll support them to gain their vote when they know that isn't the case.

Lets take for example Kamela Harris who has notoriously said she is not a socialist. She then posts this:

Read on Twitter

Between Pence, Biden, Trump and Harris she is the absolute worst.

Unless you believe in helping those who are worse off.

No need to make me feel like I'm the bad guy here.

1st off I'm not in position of power to do this. 2nd off, I would love for this scenario to happen but it's not realistic. Most of the mega rich will not give up their wealth. If you force them to do this, then will eventually leave and you know what happens after that.

If you want true change, it starts at the top not just who is the president but the mega wealthy. Forcing them however to change will not work. They need to be ones to change themselves.

[Dresden]

it's really funny when people accuse politicians of being socialists when actual socialists are like "that person suuuucks." kamala is just a (relatively) harmless weirdo with no political instincts

Right. She's clueless. She will try to appease to everyone. I personally think she is the most deceptive politician I have ever seen in the VP spot. It's funny as much as I dislike Biden/Trump, wow they're so much better than Harris. At least they believe what they're saying to some degree. Harris just says whatever will appeal to whomever she is speaking to at that given moment. Terrible VP pick.

It would take some doing to be more deceptive than Dick Cheney, who convinced the whole nation we should invade Iraq over a bogus claim that they had WMD. Only cost 3,000 Americans their lives, countless others who will be on disability the rest of their lives, and close to a trillion dollars of taxpayers money.

[dice]

I'm not so sure Trump will take "the South". FLA is a toss up, leaning blue. GA could well go blue. NC is a toss up. Even Texas may be in play for Biden.

The only southern states firmly red are AL, MS, SC, TN, KY, ARK.

Keyword "could" but unlikely. Those states above I expect to go red. Ignore the polls which have historically been wrong and in this election make it even more likely they're wrong.

This election will come down to the rust belt.

the polls have not historically been wrong. the polls have historically been within the margins of error. people just don't understand how polling and probability works

here is just the gallup polling over the years vs the actual result:



obviously any single poll could be significantly off, and yet the gallup poll has typically not been off by more than a few points. average a bunch of polls together and the margin shrinks. biden is currently up 8-9 points nationwide in polling averages (hillary was +4 heading into the election and won by 3)

this year is harder than ever to predict for a variety of reasons, but if biden wins the popular vote by 5-6 points it's hard to imagine trump hitting his electoral college flush on the river again

[PlayerUp]

I'm not so sure Trump will take "the South". FLA is a toss up, leaning blue. GA could well go blue. NC is a toss up. Even Texas may be in play for Biden.

The only southern states firmly red are AL, MS, SC, TN, KY, ARK.

Keyword "could" but unlikely. Those states above I expect to go red. Ignore the polls which have historically been wrong and in this election make it even more likely they're wrong.

This election will come down to the rust belt.

We'll know soon. Polls could also be off in the other direction this time, too.

You're right.

It's too unpredictable. There are so many issues and so many x factors.

What I am curious about is how many will vote in this election? 150 million, 175 million? More? Only on or around 127 million voted last election.

[PlayerUp]

it's really funny when people accuse politicians of being socialists when actual socialists are like "that person suuuucks." kamala is just a (relatively) harmless weirdo with no political instincts

Right. She's clueless. She will try to appease to everyone. I personally think she is the most deceptive politician I have ever seen in the VP spot. It's funny as much as I dislike Biden/Trump, wow they're so much better than Harris. At least they believe what they're saying to some degree. Harris just says whatever will appeal to whomever she is speaking to at that given moment. Terrible VP pick.

It would take some doing to be more deceptive than Dick Cheney, who convinced the whole nation we should invade Iraq over a bogus claim that they had WMD. Only cost 3,000 Americans their lives, countless others who will be on disability the rest of their lives, and close to a trillion dollars of taxpayers money.

You're right. I forgot about Cheney.

Pretty incredible how many bad politicians make it to the top.

[dice]

Trump is already outright stating that he'll be ready Wednesday with his herd of lawyers.

Unless Biden wins a true landslide, this thing won't be resolved for a couple days or possibly weeks in a worst-case.

problem for trump is that a whoooooole lotta people voted early...and well in advance. those votes will be counted, and in many cases BEFORE the same-day results come in. we will have a mountain of data on election night. that said, there will still probably be millions of votes postmarked before the deadline but received later, so hopefully we'll have a good idea of the winner already

[dice]

I think that it's important to vote as it will help shape not only your local but your federal government and that will always affect you.

Even if it's just for your local government, still got out and cast your vote. If for no other reason than your own self interests.

I live in Alabama, Trump is going to win the state in a landslide. I will still cast my vote for the presidential election and to help shape the local government and state senate.

Quite frankly, I think it should be mandatory, but that's just my opinion.

i disagree, because then you have enormous quantities of low information, disinterested, easily manipulated voters deciding elections...even more of a lowest common denominator situation than we already have (at least in the good ole US of A)

[PlayerUp]

I'm not so sure Trump will take "the South". FLA is a toss up, leaning blue. GA could well go blue. NC is a toss up. Even Texas may be in play for Biden.

The only southern states firmly red are AL, MS, SC, TN, KY, ARK.

Keyword "could" but unlikely. Those states above I expect to go red. Ignore the polls which have historically been wrong and in this election make it even more likely they're wrong.

This election will come down to the rust belt.

the polls have not historically been wrong. the polls have historically been within the margins of error. people just don't understand how polling and probability works

here is just the gallup polling over the years vs the actual result:



obviously any single poll could be significantly off, and yet the gallup poll has typically not been off by more than a few points. average a bunch of polls together and the margin shrinks. biden is currently up 8-9 points nationwide in polling averages (hillary was +4 heading into the election and won by 3)

this year is harder than ever to predict for a variety of reasons, but if biden wins the popular vote by 5-6 points it's hard to imagine trump hitting his electoral college flush on the river again

Trump doesn't need to win every state he won though. He has room to lose.

I see the polls Dice and it looks good for Biden no doubt about it. Polls do look better in some states than it did for Clinton but Trump did win by a good margin in some of these swing states last time.

It's going to be very interesting to see how this plays out.

Should add here the winner of Ohio has carried the last 14 elections. Trump is favored in that state. There is a possibility that streak may end in this election.

[dice]

Keyword "could" but unlikely. Those states above I expect to go red. Ignore the polls which have historically been wrong and in this election make it even more likely they're wrong.

This election will come down to the rust belt.

We'll know soon. Polls could also be off in the other direction this time, too.

You're right.

It's too unpredictable. There are so many issues and so many x factors.

What I am curious about is how many will vote in this election? 150 million, 175 million? More? Only on or around 127 million voted last election.

many states will be exceeding their totals from last year on early voting alone

[PlayerUp]

many states will be exceeding their totals from last year on early voting alone

Indeed. Look at Texas. Early voting is nearly 10m already. The population of Texas is nearly 30 million. That outpaces the grand total in the 2016 election. That's why it's really unpredictable.

[Michael Jackson]

it's really funny when people accuse politicians of being socialists when actual socialists are like "that person suuuucks." kamala is just a (relatively) harmless weirdo with no political instincts

Right. She's clueless. She will try to appease to everyone. I personally think she is the most deceptive politician I have ever seen in the VP spot. It's funny as much as I dislike Biden/Trump, wow they're so much better than Harris. At least they believe what they're saying to some degree. Harris just says whatever will appeal to whomever she is speaking to at that given moment. Terrible VP pick.

It would take some doing to be more deceptive than Dick Cheney, who convinced the whole nation we should invade Iraq over a bogus claim that they had WMD. Only cost 3,000 Americans their lives, countless others who will be on disability the rest of their lives, and close to a trillion dollars of taxpayers money.

I mean Cheney didn’t even have a pulse or a heart. Now that’s inhuman. Harris is scary to me in a lot of ways, she does seem like someone who would kill a family member to get ahead, yet she is not as scary as Cheney.

[TheSuzerain]

Biden is a solid enough candidate. He's too old. That's about the only glaring negative for the guy.

I get not being blown away by the guy, but there's no way he's a bottom tier candidate.

[dice]

it's really funny when people accuse politicians of being socialists when actual socialists are like "that person suuuucks." kamala is just a (relatively) harmless weirdo with no political instincts

Right. She's clueless. She will try to appease to everyone.

she's certainly not clueless. but she certainly IS a craven politician

[dice]

Biden is a solid enough candidate. He's too old. That's about the only glaring negative for the guy.

I get not being blown away by the guy, but there's no way he's a bottom tier candidate.

i look at him as an empty suit representing the meaty center of the democratic party. has been his whole career. he won't fight hard for anything that the bulk of the party doesn't support, but nothing outside of that has any chance in hell of being passed through congress anyway. so if you're a moderate liberal you should have no issue voting for him. if you're just plain old moderate or liberal, you should have LITTLE issue voting for him simply because of the alternative

[Michael Jackson]

Biden is a solid enough candidate. He's too old. That's about the only glaring negative for the guy.

I get not being blown away by the guy, but there's no way he's a bottom tier candidate.

He is ok enough in the sense that the anti-trump sentiment can get him into office, but I disliked him as a VP choice and dislike him more as a Presidential candidate. I think over the 4 years the DNC could have done better, even though they were planning 4 years ago to be working on a re-election campaign for Hilary. They still should have had someone stronger than Biden in the wings. I get that milquetoast is a strategy against the boisterous Trump, but I do not like it. I get the are going the safest route they can and this is simply a numbers game but man oh man if I am not clicking my heels over Biden.

[dice]

Biden is a solid enough candidate. He's too old. That's about the only glaring negative for the guy.

I get not being blown away by the guy, but there's no way he's a bottom tier candidate.

He is ok enough in the sense that the anti-trump sentiment can get him into office, but I disliked him as a VP choice and dislike him more as a Presidential candidate. I think over the 4 years the DNC could have done better, even though they were planning 4 years ago to be working on a re-election campaign for Hilary. They still should have had someone stronger than Biden in the wings. I get that milquetoast is a strategy against the boisterous Trump, but I do not like it. I get the are going the safest route they can and this is simply a numbers game but man oh man if I am not clicking my heels over Biden.

i agree with most of that, but to be clear, the DNC did not anoint biden. he was even in dire straits cash wise at times. nobody rallied around him until is became clear that the mainstream democratic voter preferred him. significantly

[TheSuzerain]

Biden is a solid enough candidate. He's too old. That's about the only glaring negative for the guy.

I get not being blown away by the guy, but there's no way he's a bottom tier candidate.

He is ok enough in the sense that the anti-trump sentiment can get him into office, but I disliked him as a VP choice and dislike him more as a Presidential candidate. I think over the 4 years the DNC could have done better, even though they were planning 4 years ago to be working on a re-election campaign for Hilary. They still should have had someone stronger than Biden in the wings. I get that milquetoast is a strategy against the boisterous Trump, but I do not like it. I get the are going the safest route they can and this is simply a numbers game but man oh man if I am not clicking my heels over Biden.

Are you concerned with his quality as a candidate (i.e. will he win the election?) or his ability to actually fulfill the office. Those are different things I'd say.

[dougthonus]

I'm not so sure Trump will take "the South". FLA is a toss up, leaning blue. GA could well go blue. NC is a toss up. Even Texas may be in play for Biden.

The only southern states firmly red are AL, MS, SC, TN, KY, ARK.

Keyword "could" but unlikely. Those states above I expect to go red. Ignore the polls which have historically been wrong and in this election make it even more likely they're wrong.

This election will come down to the rust belt.

We'll know soon. Polls could also be off in the other direction this time, too.

For a lot of reasons, it strikes me as somewhat unlikely that polls will be off in the direction of Biden, but we'll see.

[dougthonus]

Biden is a solid enough candidate. He's too old. That's about the only glaring negative for the guy.

I get not being blown away by the guy, but there's no way he's a bottom tier candidate.

He is ok enough in the sense that the anti-trump sentiment can get him into office, but I disliked him as a VP choice and dislike him more as a Presidential candidate. I think over the 4 years the DNC could have done better, even though they were planning 4 years ago to be working on a re-election campaign for Hilary. They still should have had someone stronger than Biden in the wings. I get that milquetoast is a strategy against the boisterous Trump, but I do not like it. I get the are going the safest route they can and this is simply a numbers game but man oh man if I am not clicking my heels over Biden.

Agree, I think Biden is awful.