Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[jnrjr79]

IMO, I don't think it's fair to just sort of assert that shooting is a Giddey weakness anymore. He may regress, particularly if he starts actually having some gravity, but he shot the 3 well this year and IMO the most recent season is the most relevant data set for a player of his age. To me, shooting is more of a question mark than a known negative.

His defense also improved this year, though he has a long way to go before he'd be even an ok defender, and IMO just given his physical attributes that's going to be a tougher nut to crack than shooting.

Yeah, I noted above that I think it's well within the possibility that shooting develops into a non-weakness, but he still only shoots wide open shots, still passes up shots, and still has negative gravity on the floor, so the impact to the team is still a weakness IMO. I agree the percentage he hit this year is promising (and noted so above).

The previous statement was more in line with the risks than meant to be an absolute statement of this will happen this way, though I agree I stated it more absolutely than I meant it.

Yeah, I get you.

The gravity thing will eventually fix itself if he can keep hitting threes at the clip he did this past season. The fact that it didn't happen over the course of the season does suggest that opponents didn't really trust that it was a real trend (though they were wrong about that, at least for purposes of the season).

[Red Larrivee]

It's definitely in the range of reasonable / possible outcomes that he makes enough improvement as a shooter / defender for what I said to not be true. I just wouldn't bet on it being the likely outcome.

I think generally, he's a floor raiser and ceiling lowerer, and I think I would generally always avoid those types of players as they prevent you from getting good draft picks and also aren't part of contenders.

I'm roughly with you on the Giddey issue. What are you thinking we should do regarding contract? IMO, we should offer him (before FA starts) the largest contract that we could live with him on as a prominent 6th man long term. That way, if what we suspect happens, he can still be a valuable 20-25 mpg guy and not kill you long term. I don't know what that means dollar wise - maybe $20 mil/year? I understand he probably wouldn't accept this before FA starts, but he might have to after nobody offers him much. At 20 mil/year, he has the potential to be a good value contract. It just sucks that we already have Patrick making 18 mil as a bench guy.

This is why I wanted to trade Giddey before the deadline. I knew he might blow up numbers wise and that it would be something of a mirage for us. He strikes me as a potentially great regular season player who loses in the first round annually when other teams focus on the straightforward ways to neutralize him.

The absolute minimum for Giddey is $25 million right now. Which I think would be a fair deal.

Yeah, $20M isn't even in reality at this point. If you wanted a shot at that happening, there should've been more effort to extend him before the season. If the Bulls hardline at that number, Giddey will sign the QO and leave next summer.

[jnrjr79]

It's definitely in the range of reasonable / possible outcomes that he makes enough improvement as a shooter / defender for what I said to not be true. I just wouldn't bet on it being the likely outcome.

I think generally, he's a floor raiser and ceiling lowerer, and I think I would generally always avoid those types of players as they prevent you from getting good draft picks and also aren't part of contenders.

I'm roughly with you on the Giddey issue. What are you thinking we should do regarding contract? IMO, we should offer him (before FA starts) the largest contract that we could live with him on as a prominent 6th man long term. That way, if what we suspect happens, he can still be a valuable 20-25 mpg guy and not kill you long term. I don't know what that means dollar wise - maybe $20 mil/year? I understand he probably wouldn't accept this before FA starts, but he might have to after nobody offers him much. At 20 mil/year, he has the potential to be a good value contract. It just sucks that we already have Patrick making 18 mil as a bench guy.

This is why I wanted to trade Giddey before the deadline. I knew he might blow up numbers wise and that it would be something of a mirage for us. He strikes me as a potentially great regular season player who loses in the first round annually when other teams focus on the straightforward ways to neutralize him.

The absolute minimum for Giddey is $25 million right now. Which I think would be a fair deal.

This could be right, but if Brooklyn doesn't offer him that, nobody else can. So the question becomes at what threshold he would bet on himself and play on the QO.

[League Circles]

I'm roughly with you on the Giddey issue. What are you thinking we should do regarding contract? IMO, we should offer him (before FA starts) the largest contract that we could live with him on as a prominent 6th man long term. That way, if what we suspect happens, he can still be a valuable 20-25 mpg guy and not kill you long term. I don't know what that means dollar wise - maybe $20 mil/year? I understand he probably wouldn't accept this before FA starts, but he might have to after nobody offers him much. At 20 mil/year, he has the potential to be a good value contract. It just sucks that we already have Patrick making 18 mil as a bench guy.

This is why I wanted to trade Giddey before the deadline. I knew he might blow up numbers wise and that it would be something of a mirage for us. He strikes me as a potentially great regular season player who loses in the first round annually when other teams focus on the straightforward ways to neutralize him.

I think 25M a year is where my line on Giddey is.

That's the most you'd offer or the most you'd match?

[League Circles]

It's definitely in the range of reasonable / possible outcomes that he makes enough improvement as a shooter / defender for what I said to not be true. I just wouldn't bet on it being the likely outcome.

I think generally, he's a floor raiser and ceiling lowerer, and I think I would generally always avoid those types of players as they prevent you from getting good draft picks and also aren't part of contenders.

I'm roughly with you on the Giddey issue. What are you thinking we should do regarding contract? IMO, we should offer him (before FA starts) the largest contract that we could live with him on as a prominent 6th man long term. That way, if what we suspect happens, he can still be a valuable 20-25 mpg guy and not kill you long term. I don't know what that means dollar wise - maybe $20 mil/year? I understand he probably wouldn't accept this before FA starts, but he might have to after nobody offers him much. At 20 mil/year, he has the potential to be a good value contract. It just sucks that we already have Patrick making 18 mil as a bench guy.

This is why I wanted to trade Giddey before the deadline. I knew he might blow up numbers wise and that it would be something of a mirage for us. He strikes me as a potentially great regular season player who loses in the first round annually when other teams focus on the straightforward ways to neutralize him.

I do not think this is viable. Giddey, if he is anything like he played post-Zach trade, is a starter in the league, and relegating him to the bench is just asking for problems, particularly because he did not take that well in OKC. If you want to sign Giddey, it's because you plan to start him or think you're going to sign him to a deal that you can trade for good stuff.

I imagine Giddey turns down $20M. That could be ok - you might be able to find a S&T partner, but you risk an offer sheet from Brooklyn and letting him walk.

I'd probably offer him something like $25-30M and see if he bites without testing free agency. It's definitely dicey - he's got some obvious limitations and you don't know whether his hot second half of the season is sustainable. He's worth more than $30M if it is, but a guy going on an extreme heater before his contract offseason is definitely dangerous territory.

I certainly wouldn't be planning to bench Giddey. But I think it's a reasonably likely long term outcome. I love how he played after the trade, but I still have significant concerns that he's not built to drive winning, playoff basketball. And if he's ultimately not, he'll need to be benched. So if he signs a 5 year deal, IMO chances are at least 20% that he'll be benched by like year 3.

[League Circles]

I'm roughly with you on the Giddey issue. What are you thinking we should do regarding contract? IMO, we should offer him (before FA starts) the largest contract that we could live with him on as a prominent 6th man long term. That way, if what we suspect happens, he can still be a valuable 20-25 mpg guy and not kill you long term. I don't know what that means dollar wise - maybe $20 mil/year? I understand he probably wouldn't accept this before FA starts, but he might have to after nobody offers him much. At 20 mil/year, he has the potential to be a good value contract. It just sucks that we already have Patrick making 18 mil as a bench guy.

This is why I wanted to trade Giddey before the deadline. I knew he might blow up numbers wise and that it would be something of a mirage for us. He strikes me as a potentially great regular season player who loses in the first round annually when other teams focus on the straightforward ways to neutralize him.

The absolute minimum for Giddey is $25 million right now. Which I think would be a fair deal.

This could be right, but if Brooklyn doesn't offer him that, nobody else can. So the question becomes at what threshold he would bet on himself and play on the QO.

Who knows what he'd do, but IMO, if he passes up 100+ mil guaranteed to be our starting point so that he can play on a one year QO for 11 million, he's deeply insane. That said, he should already be set for life financially, so who am I to judge.

[jnrjr79]

I'm roughly with you on the Giddey issue. What are you thinking we should do regarding contract? IMO, we should offer him (before FA starts) the largest contract that we could live with him on as a prominent 6th man long term. That way, if what we suspect happens, he can still be a valuable 20-25 mpg guy and not kill you long term. I don't know what that means dollar wise - maybe $20 mil/year? I understand he probably wouldn't accept this before FA starts, but he might have to after nobody offers him much. At 20 mil/year, he has the potential to be a good value contract. It just sucks that we already have Patrick making 18 mil as a bench guy.

This is why I wanted to trade Giddey before the deadline. I knew he might blow up numbers wise and that it would be something of a mirage for us. He strikes me as a potentially great regular season player who loses in the first round annually when other teams focus on the straightforward ways to neutralize him.

I do not think this is viable. Giddey, if he is anything like he played post-Zach trade, is a starter in the league, and relegating him to the bench is just asking for problems, particularly because he did not take that well in OKC. If you want to sign Giddey, it's because you plan to start him or think you're going to sign him to a deal that you can trade for good stuff.

I imagine Giddey turns down $20M. That could be ok - you might be able to find a S&T partner, but you risk an offer sheet from Brooklyn and letting him walk.

I'd probably offer him something like $25-30M and see if he bites without testing free agency. It's definitely dicey - he's got some obvious limitations and you don't know whether his hot second half of the season is sustainable. He's worth more than $30M if it is, but a guy going on an extreme heater before his contract offseason is definitely dangerous territory.

I certainly wouldn't be planning to bench Giddey. But I think it's a reasonably likely long term outcome. I love how he played after the trade, but I still have significant concerns that he's not built to drive winning, playoff basketball. And if he's ultimately not, he'll need to be benched. So if he signs a 5 year deal, IMO chances are at least 20% that he'll be benched by like year 3.

If that's your assessment, you should be leaning toward not signing him, IMO, and hoping a S&T partner can be found.

You don't want to sign Giddey to $30M+ if you think he's destined for the bench.

For what it's worth, I don't view him as a bench player, but this board's favorite thing is to say every player (White, LaVine, Giddey, etc.) is best suited to be a sixth man.

[jnrjr79]

The absolute minimum for Giddey is $25 million right now. Which I think would be a fair deal.

This could be right, but if Brooklyn doesn't offer him that, nobody else can. So the question becomes at what threshold he would bet on himself and play on the QO.

Who knows what he'd do, but IMO, if he passes up 100+ mil guaranteed to be our starting point so that he can play on a one year QO for 11 million, he's deeply insane. That said, he should already be set for life financially, so who am I to judge.

He's made something like $26 million. After taxes, he certainly could/should be set for life if he's been conservative with his spending, but by NBA terms, obviously he hasn't hit his big payday yet, and I agree it'd be risky for him to turn down $100M guaranteed or whatever, which is why I would like AK to actually try to negotiate here a bit rather than just do what we suspect he'll do.

[dougthonus]

Giddey Vuc comparison is so lazy.

What do you call a 6 word reply with no evidence or thought whatsoever except insults?

[dougthonus]

That's the most you'd offer or the most you'd match?

It's sort of hard to say, because on the one hand, I just would have done everything so different from this org and would have such different goals that it's hard for me to put my mind in the same spot as them. I think based on our current FO's plans of never ever under any circumstances rebuilding, that I would probably go 30M on Giddey.

[League Circles]

I do not think this is viable. Giddey, if he is anything like he played post-Zach trade, is a starter in the league, and relegating him to the bench is just asking for problems, particularly because he did not take that well in OKC. If you want to sign Giddey, it's because you plan to start him or think you're going to sign him to a deal that you can trade for good stuff.

I imagine Giddey turns down $20M. That could be ok - you might be able to find a S&T partner, but you risk an offer sheet from Brooklyn and letting him walk.

I'd probably offer him something like $25-30M and see if he bites without testing free agency. It's definitely dicey - he's got some obvious limitations and you don't know whether his hot second half of the season is sustainable. He's worth more than $30M if it is, but a guy going on an extreme heater before his contract offseason is definitely dangerous territory.

I certainly wouldn't be planning to bench Giddey. But I think it's a reasonably likely long term outcome. I love how he played after the trade, but I still have significant concerns that he's not built to drive winning, playoff basketball. And if he's ultimately not, he'll need to be benched. So if he signs a 5 year deal, IMO chances are at least 20% that he'll be benched by like year 3.

If that's your assessment, you should be leaning toward not signing him, IMO, and hoping a S&T partner can be found.

You don't want to sign Giddey to $30M+ if you think he's destined for the bench.

For what it's worth, I don't view him as a bench player, but this board's favorite thing is to say every player (White, LaVine, Giddey, etc.) is best suited to be a sixth man.

I certainly don't think he's destined for the bench. He could still maybe be an all star player after all. But most guys that have done what he's done, overall, at his age, are not guaranteed long term starters. If he keeps getting beat in the first round because he can't guard or score in the playoffs, of course you eventually have to look to bench him, even if he's piling up bug regular season counting stats.

Sign and trade is very tricky. I'd let that be initiated by his agent. If we offer him like 5/110, and Brooklyn doesn't make him an offer, and he wants more, let him find a trade partner. We should only trade him if it really helps us relative to paying however much more we'd have to to keep him, and/or relative to letting him walk or play on the QO.

I'm not saying I wouldn't go above 20 mil a year, just saying that the risk goes up quite a bit from there, cause then he starts to enter the "starter or albatross" range, and I question if he's a sure thing as a starter. Such a unique player, good and bad.

[dougthonus]

The gravity thing will eventually fix itself if he can keep hitting threes at the clip he did this past season. The fact that it didn't happen over the course of the season does suggest that opponents didn't really trust that it was a real trend (though they were wrong about that, at least for purposes of the season).

I don't know. Shooting 37% on low volume isn't particularly punishing the defense meaningfully if they get the benefit of not guarding you out there at all, so I'm not sure that this decision really hurt defenses significantly.

[sco]

That's the most you'd offer or the most you'd match?

It's sort of hard to say, because on the one hand, I just would have done everything so different from this org and would have such different goals that it's hard for me to put my mind in the same spot as them. I think based on our current FO's plans of never ever under any circumstances rebuilding, that I would probably go 30M on Giddey.

I think you forgot an "ever" after "never ever".

[dougthonus]

Continue discussion here, copied in recent posts so discussions aren't lsot.

[sco]

So there's no clever sub-title like "Doug ok with paying $30M"?

[dougthonus]

So there's no clever sub-title like "Doug ok with paying $30M"?

Doug when forced to think like the worst GM in the NBA instead of putting in sensible plan would be okay with paying 30M.

[sco]

what do folks think about a 3/$90 deal with year 3 TO instead?

[League Circles]

That's the most you'd offer or the most you'd match?

It's sort of hard to say, because on the one hand, I just would have done everything so different from this org and would have such different goals that it's hard for me to put my mind in the same spot as them. I think based on our current FO's plans of never ever under any circumstances rebuilding, that I would probably go 30M on Giddey.

Yeah I'm talking if you got AK's job right now, what would you offer, and what would you match.

I'd offer him 5 years starting at 20 mil a year with max raises. If he entered FA, and got an offer sheet from Brooklyn, I'd probably match up to like 32 mil/year (and hold my nose while I did it). Outside of that, I'd make him go seek a sign and trade, and I'd maybe go up to 25-28 mil/year at the last second if he looked like he was going to take the QO.

[League Circles]

That's the most you'd offer or the most you'd match?

It's sort of hard to say, because on the one hand, I just would have done everything so different from this org and would have such different goals that it's hard for me to put my mind in the same spot as them. I think based on our current FO's plans of never ever under any circumstances rebuilding, that I would probably go 30M on Giddey.

I think you forgot an "ever" after "never ever".

Funny because this IS the rebuild. In less than a year we went from a core of Vuc, Zach, Derozan and Caruso to Giddey, Coby, Matas. People might not like how we did it, or the outcome, but we certainly just rebuilt the team into a very different, much younger core. We also rebuilt the team when AK first took over.

[sco]

It's sort of hard to say, because on the one hand, I just would have done everything so different from this org and would have such different goals that it's hard for me to put my mind in the same spot as them. I think based on our current FO's plans of never ever under any circumstances rebuilding, that I would probably go 30M on Giddey.

I think you forgot an "ever" after "never ever".

Funny because this IS the rebuild. In less than a year we went from a core of Vuc, Zach, Derozan and Caruso to Giddey, Coby, Matas. People might not like how we did it, or the outcome, but we certainly just rebuilt the team into a very different, much younger core. We also rebuilt the team when AK first took over.

I took his comment to mean tanking, but you are right.