OT: The Giannis trade rumors will "probably" start in earnest now

[dougthonus]

Yeah, I realize more & more that the Bucks are totally screwed and will want someone like Buzelis as a centerpiece. That's a hard no for me.

Come on now, if you could get Giannis for Buzelis and picks, you don't even blink at it, you say yes before they hang up the phone.

[League Circles]

Yeah, I realize more & more that the Bucks are totally screwed and will want someone like Buzelis as a centerpiece. That's a hard no for me.

Come on now, if you could get Giannis for Buzelis and picks, you don't even blink at it, you say yes before they hang up the phone.

Well, considering you can't under the CBA, I'd say you have to see specifics (what other contracts and assets would need to also be involved).

[dougthonus]

Yeah, I realize more & more that the Bucks are totally screwed and will want someone like Buzelis as a centerpiece. That's a hard no for me.

Come on now, if you could get Giannis for Buzelis and picks, you don't even blink at it, you say yes before they hang up the phone.

Well, considering you can't under the CBA, I'd say you have to see specifics (what other contracts and assets would need to also be involved).

We enough expiring contracts to fill in all the gaps, and you'd whichever ones they wanted (Vuc, Collins, Huerter, Lonzo, Carter), but given you just said in a previous post that Giannis is worth more than 20 first round picks, why are you now arguing about the specifics of other contracts we have. Our whole roster isn't worth 20 first round picks.

[DropStep]

I think they definitely overpaid because Holiday probably had a similar impact on winning to Lillard for their set up. The one thing I'll say though is that we probably can't look at age the way we used to. 33 is probably the new 30, especially for star players. Look at how well Steph has held up. The problem for Lillard now is really the achilles injury rathe than age, but that isn't a thing you could have predicted.

Steph is definitely amazing, but he is a LeBron-esque outlier - I get nervous for undersized guards and big men as they age. Age and miles are big questions on what to pay for Giannis. He had a remarkable uptick this year for a thirty-year-old big man, but the clock is ticking fast, and he started getting NBA miles at age 19. Average games played first 6 years of his career: 77.5. Last 6 years: 65.7. 32-33 is the threshold of a steep descent for a lot of good recent big men, and he will be 31 when the league starts boogeying next December. I made a sweet graph of some PER comps, but I can't figure how to get the IMG tag to work with Google Drive so you will all have to live without it.

This is actually a pretty decent time for MIL to cash in on Giannis. You got most of his prime, and a year too early is better than a year too late yada yada. 12 years is a long time. As far as buyers, he is currently one of the very best, but I would be hesitant to mortgage a long-term future for a potentially short and disappointing present. Essentially, that leaves HOU, SA, and OKC as the teams with enough assets to be reasonable destinations in my book. They aren't being talked about as much as Houston, etc. to my ears, but if OKC flames out and they can find a way to finagle salaries, I would watch for them. Fun is fun, but soon Presti is literally going to have a hard time using all the picks he has. Their roster will be full, and all he will want to trade them for is still more picks... unless maybe there is a legit superstar available who is still in his prime, but has championship experience to help them get over the top?

[Dan Z]

So what, they can trade Giannis for a bunch of picks and they’ll be fine. Not that picks are going to save them anyway, Milwaukee will probably go back to being one of the worst teams again.

Milwaukee will probably go back to being bad, but when you are bad, not having control of your own pick for five more years is rough. They can get picks back, but it might be hard to get really good picks back because the teams that will trade for Giannis won't have really good picks available and Giannis immediately devalues any picks they have.

I think that's why they'll try to get New Orleans involved in a three team deal. If they can get their 2026 (swap) and 2027 pick back then they can rebuild for two years.

[League Circles]

Come on now, if you could get Giannis for Buzelis and picks, you don't even blink at it, you say yes before they hang up the phone.

Well, considering you can't under the CBA, I'd say you have to see specifics (what other contracts and assets would need to also be involved).

We enough expiring contracts to fill in all the gaps, and you'd whichever ones they wanted (Vuc, Collins, Huerter, Lonzo, Carter), but given you just said in a previous post that Giannis is worth more than 20 first round picks, why are you now arguing about the specifics of other contracts we have. Our whole roster isn't worth 20 first round picks.

"20 first round picks" isn't a thing. A "first round pick" isn't a "first round pick".

So for example if the only way to get Giannis would be to trade Giddey, Matas, Coby, several other of our best pieces and as many picks as allowed, there's a good chance I wouldn't trade for Giannis, cause next year would be nothing with him and garbage, and then you have at best one year to surround him with free agent teammates, so it would be too risky for me. There is an equation that exists IMO where Matas could be the difference between a deal I'd do and one I wouldn't.

[dougthonus]

"20 first round picks" isn't a thing. A "first round pick" isn't a "first round pick".

No idea what you mean, but you are the one who came up with 20 1st round picks not me.

So for example if the only way to get Giannis would be to trade Giddey, Matas, Coby, several other of our best pieces and as many picks as allowed, there's a good chance I wouldn't trade for Giannis, cause next year would be nothing with him and garbage, and then you have at best one year to surround him with free agent teammates, so it would be too risky for me. There is an equation that exists IMO where Matas could be the difference between a deal I'd do and one I wouldn't.

Literally the exact situation that you think the Bucks should keep Giannis in right now. Their next year is completely screwed already, and they only have one year to figure things out.

FWIW, I'd only really trade the whole team for Giannis because I think you could flip Giannis for other stuff worth more than the rest of the team in trades for other stuff, but the reality is they wouldn't trade him to us for that same reason.

[jnrjr79]

They're in a terrible spot. Might even make sense to consider stretch waiving Lady Lillard next summer. They just can't trade Giannis this summer for anything short of a home run package, which requires a top 3 pick this summer or a young all star caliber talent. Nothing else is worth considering, even "20 (future) first round picks"

I just don't see any path that makes sense for them beyond taking the best deal they can make this summer. They don't have anything they can do other than the MLE to add to help Giannis, and they're not just an MLE player away at this point.

Ideally they will find a team that is owed picks from some third team to avoid the otherwise inevitable outcome where Giannis makes the team trading for him good, and therefore its picks bad. The exception to that, though, is if the team trading for him has a top 3ish pick this year. That might be good enough. I expect Milwaukee would bite at any offer that included Flagg, though I wonder how many teams would trade Flagg for Giannis.

All depends on what they're offered. Just because it seems obvious to us that they can't win a title doesn't mean they should forfeit 2 years of the best player they'll likely have for the next 100 years.

Their choice is to be a first round exit for the next two seasons and then have an empty cupboard for a rebuild vs. get some really useful stuff for a rebuild now.

This is not a difficult decision.

[WookieOnRitalin]

Spurs make too much sense here. The 2nd pick. A good group of young guys to pair with Giannis. They could very well take the West next year.

[League Circles]

"20 first round picks" isn't a thing. A "first round pick" isn't a "first round pick".

No idea what you mean, but you are the one who came up with 20 1st round picks not me.

So for example if the only way to get Giannis would be to trade Giddey, Matas, Coby, several other of our best pieces and as many picks as allowed, there's a good chance I wouldn't trade for Giannis, cause next year would be nothing with him and garbage, and then you have at best one year to surround him with free agent teammates, so it would be too risky for me. There is an equation that exists IMO where Matas could be the difference between a deal I'd do and one I wouldn't.

Literally the exact situation that you think the Bucks should keep Giannis in right now. Their next year is completely screwed already, and they only have one year to figure things out.

FWIW, I'd only really trade the whole team for Giannis because I think you could flip Giannis for other stuff worth more than the rest of the team in trades for other stuff, but the reality is they wouldn't trade him to us for that same reason.

Yeah, I think the Bulls are quite possibly in a better position than the Bucks right now.

The Bucks should trade him if it can plausibly improve the team's prospects over the next 4 years. I jist think that's doubtful.

The first comment was just about how "first round picks" aren't really a category of like-things. One "first round pick" can easily be worth twenty other "first round picks". That's why I never really engage in discussions about X number of first round picks when they're not specified.

[League Circles]

I just don't see any path that makes sense for them beyond taking the best deal they can make this summer. They don't have anything they can do other than the MLE to add to help Giannis, and they're not just an MLE player away at this point.

Ideally they will find a team that is owed picks from some third team to avoid the otherwise inevitable outcome where Giannis makes the team trading for him good, and therefore its picks bad. The exception to that, though, is if the team trading for him has a top 3ish pick this year. That might be good enough. I expect Milwaukee would bite at any offer that included Flagg, though I wonder how many teams would trade Flagg for Giannis.

All depends on what they're offered. Just because it seems obvious to us that they can't win a title doesn't mean they should forfeit 2 years of the best player they'll likely have for the next 100 years.

Their choice is to be a first round exit for the next two seasons and then have an empty cupboard for a rebuild vs. get some really useful stuff for a rebuild now.

This is not a difficult decision.

They shouldn't treat it as a foregone conclusion that he'd leave in 2 years, regardless of what he says IMO.

If they can get a young all star on a rookie deal plus more, it might make sense to trade him. Sure they could somehow find a package with obviously multiple firsts, but the further you look into the future the more all firsts project to be #15, and anyone not on their rookie deal probably also has at most 2-3 years left til UFA just like Giannis, so the problem remains, but with a much worse #1.

[DuckIII]

So I guess he'll be a Spur. No way they actually use that #2 pick and it behooves Milwaukee to trade him for an immediate pick rather than getting picks that will end up being in the 20s every year. Plus SA has additional picks. Just makes way too much sense for everyone.

[GoBlue72391]

If we got the first pick, would you rather keep Cooper or trade for Giannis?

I wonder would Cooper or Giannis hurt Matas development?

That's not a problem you worry about, that's a problem you're happy to have.

[GoBlue72391]

Yeah, I realize more & more that the Bucks are totally screwed and will want someone like Buzelis as a centerpiece. That's a hard no for me.

I thought I was the biggest Buz guy on the board, but drawing the line at Buz for Giannis is crazy talk. And I don't even like Giannis.

[MrSparkle]

Spurs are the logical scenario. They can get it done. I just feel they’d be forced to overpay. Bucks would want Vassell, Castle, #2, #14 and those unprotected ATL picks, which to me are a potential goldmine (Boston style) for SA. And don’t get me wrong, Giannis is worth it, but with Wemby’s health thing and that roster’s age, are they ready to go for it? Fox/Giannis/Wemby would be comically good, but they’d need shooters. Bucks don’t have their pick rights, so they’d want talent. Harper, Vassell, Castle gives Bucks something to build around.

I think Philly will try too. #3, PG13 (rerouted or rehabbed - or maybe Maxey), McCain and then a bunch of future FRPs (28, 30 as well as LAC’s unprotected 28 and 29 swap). Get back Giannis and KPJ, and this year’s #47 2nd rounder. Thing is Bucks don’t own their FRPs- NOP and POR own their next 4Y of swaps. So they don’t benefit being lotto trash, although washed PG13 doesn’t guarantee anything. Frankly I don’t think Ace Bailey gets this done.

[dougthonus]

Yeah, I think the Bulls are quite possibly in a better position than the Bucks right now.

I think so only because the Bucks don't have access to their own picks which doesn't give them a viable draft option going forward.

The Bucks should trade him if it can plausibly improve the team's prospects over the next 4 years. I jist think that's doubtful.

I'd say the Bucks have to view themselves as a play-in caliber team next year. After that they need trade Giannis or lose him for nothing. It's kind of a lousy position to be in, but I'd probably trade him whenever they think they can get the most back.

The first comment was just about how "first round picks" aren't really a category of like-things. One "first round pick" can easily be worth twenty other "first round picks". That's why I never really engage in discussions about X number of first round picks when they're not specified.

Fair enough, I agree 1st round picks are not created equally, especially with the number of protections.

[jc23]

Giannis wont attach his career to Embids broken body. Going to the SPurs is perfect, Giannis gets be the guy and then when he starts to decline Wemby will be entering his prime. And considering Giannis has been happy in a city like Milwaukee he is going to Love San Antonio.

[MalagaBulls]

Yeah, I realize more & more that the Bucks are totally screwed and will want someone like Buzelis as a centerpiece. That's a hard no for me.

I thought I was the biggest Buz guy on the board, but drawing the line at Buz for Giannis is crazy talk. And I don't even like Giannis.

You're right, F that. Do what it takes to get Giannis including Buzelis. This is exactly the type of all in move that AK will try.

[MrSparkle]

Reviewing OKC’s excess FRP situation… they actually have a really weak draft package. The quantity is high for a washed star… but for a Giannis type superstar, they lack quality as they’re all top-4 protected, and OKC projects to be dominant for atleast 5 more years barre some major breakdown. The only juicy chips are the 2027 LAC and swap and 2028 DAL swaps (not even picks… but atleast these are unprotected). The latter might’ve become worthless with the Flagg addition, and even with their age and dead-end roster, Clippers can hold on for 2 more years.

They already reaped the benefits by getting a nice roster together. Ultimately i think they stand pat anyway, but if they want to add a superstar, imo they’d need to give up JW or Chet.

[The Box Office]

Time does not wait for anyone. Not the fans, not Giannis, and not for Bucks' brass.

When Giannis is examining other teams outside of Milwaukee to possibly join, that's a terrible sign for the Bucks; no matter how much spin doctoring occurs. He wants out.

Giannis expressed he wants to be here, but AKME is lame/stupid to get anything done. They can't even draft and fall in love with players who don't play defense. (Lavine, Vooch, Demar, Coby White, Giddey)