OT: COVID-19 thread #2

[Dresden]

This is great news:

WASHINGTON — Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said Tuesday that lawmakers had reached a deal with the White House on a nearly $500 billion interim coronavirus bill that includes additional funds for the small business loan program as well as more money for hospitals and testing.

“There is still a few more I's to dot and T’s to cross, but we have a deal, and I believe we’ll pass it today,” Schumer said on CNN.

[AKfanatic]

Are you suggesting that the protests increased the numbers?

I think the assumption is that people are protesting while things are getting worse. While certainly possible that large gatherings like protests could infect lots of people, you likely wouldn't see that this quickly.

If protests were a week ago, that's enough time for symptoms to start showing up.

The protests are also an fraudulent joke. I know we aren’t supposed to be political in regards to a virus that is being responded to by US leadership in purely political ways..... because someone might be offended by pointing out the failures of a current president that would rather spend daily briefings airing grievances and riling his base than talk facts..


But these protesters are purely partisan Trump supporters. Tons of MAGA hats and a Trump trailer that has made its was to multiple cities for “protests”.... and yet Trumps own guidelines are currently calling for the shutdowns that are being protested.... while the protesters are somehow not protesting against the shutdowns so much as they are protesting against local governments that have been seen as “not friendly” to the president.

They are putting others in jeopardy through their AstroTurf “protests” that have been put in place by gun rights groups on Facebook and people directly in the White House (Stephen Miller)

[johnnyvann840]

make that 11.96. wow. What a play June long puts (options betting on the June contract tanking) with a strike of say 15.00 would have made some serious money. They weren't "cheap", but cheap enough if they were far enough away.

You could probably make the same play with July now if you were so inclined. I don't know what the July price is, but odds are the economy is not going to open so fast that oil is going to take off.

Yeah, July has crashed pretty hard today going from 26ish to 18ish.... May and June are consolidating at about 8.00-9.00... the month spread has almost closed. In fact, at one point today May expirings for delivery were actually MORE expensive than June at around 9.00. Market is just insane but if you know what you're doing you could set yourself up for life with a fairly small investment. Not for amateurs. I used to trade when I was younger but haven't in years. But, yesterday I felt like Michael Burry in the big short when I heard some of these idiots saying June would hold firm at 20.00. I mean, HOW?

[johnnyvann840]

make that 11.96. wow. What a play June long puts (options betting on the June contract tanking) with a strike of say 15.00 would have made some serious money. They weren't "cheap", but cheap enough if they were far enough away.

You seem to be very knowledgeable on this subject. Is that part of your profession?

No.. when I was young I used to trade futures options a lot. I mostly traded the Eurodollar and grains in the 90's. I had a couple years where I made as much trading as at my job (and I had a few years where I made over $250K at my job). I also had some pretty scary losses. I can't afford to gamble these days. Yesterday was such an obvious play to me that if I had a futures trading account open I would have moved on it.

[Dresden]

"Schumer also said that the proposal includes a “national strategy” for testing and contact tracing, which Democrats say is critical to reopening the country. But it is unclear what that would look like, as the White House has publicly insisted that testing be left up to the states. Congressional Republicans have been pushing for a more significant role for private industry in the testing solutions."

[johnnyvann840]

Both May and June contracts have rallied up to around 14.00. Bizarre happenings.... and that is why it's not for the faint of heart. An hour ago May was 4.00 and June was 11.00. Now both are around 14.00. June crashed to as low as 6.50ish.

[Dresden]

make that 11.96. wow. What a play June long puts (options betting on the June contract tanking) with a strike of say 15.00 would have made some serious money. They weren't "cheap", but cheap enough if they were far enough away.

You seem to be very knowledgeable on this subject. Is that part of your profession?

No.. when I was young I used to trade futures options a lot. I mostly traded the Eurodollar and grains in the 90's. I had a couple years where I made as much trading as at my job (and I had a few years where I made over $250K at my job). I also had some pretty scary losses. I can't afford to gamble these days. Yesterday was such an obvious play to me that if I had a futures trading account open I would have moved on it.

Interesting. I guess you can lose your ass in a heartbeat when you bet on the future.

[dougthonus]

Yeah, July has crashed pretty hard today going from 26ish to 18ish.... May and June are consolidating at about 8.00-9.00... the month spread has almost closed. In fact, at one point today May expirings for delivery were actually MORE expensive than June at around 9.00. Market is just insane but if you know what you're doing you could set yourself up for life with a fairly small investment. Not for amateurs. I used to trade when I was younger but haven't in years. But, yesterday I felt like Michael Burry in the big short when I heard some of these idiots saying June would hold firm at 20.00. I mean, HOW?

I've never been a trader, and I'm not an expert in commodities. I worked at a clearing firm for Futures/Equities/Options for about a decade so I'm very familiar with the mechanics and what everything means but a lot less familiar on the strategy.

[johnnyvann840]

You seem to be very knowledgeable on this subject. Is that part of your profession?

No.. when I was young I used to trade futures options a lot. I mostly traded the Eurodollar and grains in the 90's. I had a couple years where I made as much trading as at my job (and I had a few years where I made over $250K at my job). I also had some pretty scary losses. I can't afford to gamble these days. Yesterday was such an obvious play to me that if I had a futures trading account open I would have moved on it.

Interesting. I guess you can lose your ass in a heartbeat when you bet on the future.

Buying actual contracts you sure can. Margin calls yesterday wiped out a lot of people and brokers who (were long WTI Crude) in no way could pay those margin calls. But, with options you can only lose what you put in. (the premium).. so, options are a lot safer. You simply pay a premium to control the rights to sell a contract/ or buy one if you have a short call (1000 barrels of WTI Crude). If the price goes your way that option hits a break even point which is the price+premium you paid. Anything beyond that and you can make a fortune if it runs... or it goes the other way and you simply lose your premium. It's like an insurance policy against a big move. Like a farmer would buy long puts protecting him from a huge price drop of the corn he's growing.

[dougthonus]

Interesting. I guess you can lose your ass in a heartbeat when you bet on the future.

Futures, like many investment vehicles, have conservative and risky strategies. If you are playing a strategy that you can make a fortune in a short period of time on, then you also have a good chance of losing all of your investment. There's a pretty tight correlation in terms of risk vs rewards.

I almost pulled the trigger on about a dozen high risk moves that I didn't, and am kick myself a bit, but on the other hand I know I would have put too much money in them. I had a few trades that I had almost done that would have paid off 10x, but I wouldn't have bet more than 1k on them.

[Dresden]

A new study on chloroquine out:

"A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers reported.

The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday."

[AKfanatic]

A new study on chloroquine out:

"A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers reported.

The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday."

Read on Twitter

Another data point to go along with studies in other countries showing that the risks of treatment is more dangerous.

[Dresden]

Not to mention that are patients that take this drug for other serious conditions like lupus, that have been told by their pharmacists that the supply has dried up, and that they may not be able to get more of the medication for near future. Thanks Trump!

[dougthonus]

Buying actual contracts you sure can. Margin calls yesterday wiped out a lot of people and brokers who (were long WTI Crude) in no way could pay those margin calls. But, with options you can only lose what you put in. (the premium).. so, options are a lot safer. You simply pay a premium to control the rights to sell a contract/ or buy one if you have a short call (1000 barrels of WTI Crude). If the price goes your way that option hits a break even point which is the price+premium you paid. Anything beyond that and you can make a fortune if it runs... or it goes the other way and you simply lose your premium. It's like an insurance policy against a big move. Like a farmer would buy long puts protecting him from a huge price drop of the corn he's growing.

I'm sure you know this, but just for the benefit of others.

Whether it is contracts or options, the risk is based on your strategy. There are low risk and high risk ways to play both depending whether you are hedging or speculating and buying or selling.

Generally an individual has no business being in the commodity market though, because you have no reasonable low risk strategies there as you aren't going to be hedging and anything you do will be highly risky.

[Dresden]

Buying actual contracts you sure can. Margin calls yesterday wiped out a lot of people and brokers who (were long WTI Crude) in no way could pay those margin calls. But, with options you can only lose what you put in. (the premium).. so, options are a lot safer. You simply pay a premium to control the rights to sell a contract/ or buy one if you have a short call (1000 barrels of WTI Crude). If the price goes your way that option hits a break even point which is the price+premium you paid. Anything beyond that and you can make a fortune if it runs... or it goes the other way and you simply lose your premium. It's like an insurance policy against a big move. Like a farmer would buy long puts protecting him from a huge price drop of the corn he's growing.

I'm sure you know this, but just for the benefit of others.

Whether it is contracts or options, the risk is based on your strategy. There are low risk and high risk ways to play both depending whether you are hedging or speculating and buying or selling.

Generally an individual has no business being in the commodity market though, because you have no reasonable low risk strategies there as you aren't going to be hedging and anything you do will be highly risky.

Wow. All that is so far beyond my pay grade it's not even funny. I feel like there is a whole world going in areas like this that majority of the public know next to nothing about. Other than what we learned watching "Trading Places". My hat is off to any of you that know enough to actual participate in that.

[johnnyvann840]

Buying actual contracts you sure can. Margin calls yesterday wiped out a lot of people and brokers who (were long WTI Crude) in no way could pay those margin calls. But, with options you can only lose what you put in. (the premium).. so, options are a lot safer. You simply pay a premium to control the rights to sell a contract/ or buy one if you have a short call (1000 barrels of WTI Crude). If the price goes your way that option hits a break even point which is the price+premium you paid. Anything beyond that and you can make a fortune if it runs... or it goes the other way and you simply lose your premium. It's like an insurance policy against a big move. Like a farmer would buy long puts protecting him from a huge price drop of the corn he's growing.

I'm sure you know this, but just for the benefit of others.

Whether it is contracts or options, the risk is based on your strategy. There are low risk and high risk ways to play both depending whether you are hedging or speculating and buying or selling.

Generally an individual has no business being in the commodity market though, because you have no reasonable low risk strategies there as you aren't going to be hedging and anything you do will be highly risky.

This is exactly right. The high risk moves like buying options way in or out of the money (depending if your long or short), rarely pay off and a large majority of the time you will lose that premium. However, if whatever commodity you are in move BIG your way and hits and runs past the strike price, then the returns are exponential and can be huge. For instance, I think you could have bought long June puts on WTI Crude with a strike of 15.00 (it was at 20.35), for about 1.20 (so an option to control 1000 barrels of that oil would cost you $1200. You could have sold it this morning for around $20K. So, $10K investment could have returned a couple hundred thousand dollars. But, if the price stayed above 15.00 plus the 1.20 premium you lose your entire investment.

What happened here is that everybody was long crude because $20/barrel is cheap as hell (normally-but nothing is normal now). So, when the May contract was getting close to expiring and people with long contracts would either have to sell or take physical delivery of the actual oil (and there was nowhere to put it) everyone panicked and sold the May contract and it went negative 37.00.... now, you just knew that somebody today would step up and say.. I'll take delivery (which would be the end users like airlines and retailers of gasoline). That is why the price ran up into the positive range and all the way to 14.00 at one point (which is such a huge move that anyone long -from the negative price yesterday-, made a fortune today). So, going long May and short June was the move obviously because the monthly spread has closed almost all the way.

[Red8911]

This is great news:

WASHINGTON — Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said Tuesday that lawmakers had reached a deal with the White House on a nearly $500 billion interim coronavirus bill that includes additional funds for the small business loan program as well as more money for hospitals and testing.

“There is still a few more I's to dot and T’s to cross, but we have a deal, and I believe we’ll pass it today,” Schumer said on CNN.

First time the Democrats did the right thing for the people instead of the usual attack trump over anything and not agreeing on deals. Good for them.

[Red8911]

A new study on chloroquine out:

"A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers reported.

The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday."

Read on Twitter

Another data point to go along with studies in other countries showing that the risks of treatment is more dangerous.

This is making it seem like the drug killed them but the truth is they were badly sick and the drug just didn’t help these people. They were going to die anyway whether they took this drug or not. It has also saved a lot of people though, for some it works for others not. This tweet and article of course doesn’t say that because they obviously have an agenda.

[Ccwatercraft]

I think the assumption is that people are protesting while things are getting worse. While certainly possible that large gatherings like protests could infect lots of people, you likely wouldn't see that this quickly.

If protests were a week ago, that's enough time for symptoms to start showing up.

The protests are also an fraudulent joke. I know we aren’t supposed to be political in regards to a virus that is being responded to by US leadership in purely political ways..... because someone might be offended by pointing out the failures of a current president that would rather spend daily briefings airing grievances and riling his base than talk facts..


But these protesters are purely partisan Trump supporters. Tons of MAGA hats and a Trump trailer that has made its was to multiple cities for “protests”.... and yet Trumps own guidelines are currently calling for the shutdowns that are being protested.... while the protesters are somehow not protesting against the shutdowns so much as they are protesting against local governments that have been seen as “not friendly” to the president.

They are putting others in jeopardy through their AstroTurf “protests” that have been put in place by gun rights groups on Facebook and people directly in the White House (Stephen Miller)

I took you off ignore just for a quick reply.
You are saying that there were ZERO democrats protesting?
Not even any independents?

Ya, gotta call BS on that, you are tossing out partisan opinions and pretending they are facts.

I don't have a problem with people protesting actions that are causing the destruction of their livelihoods, both my spouse and I are considered "essential" and I would be out there with them if I was forced to shut down, because I actually like eating and having a roof over my head.

Ok, back on ignore

[AKfanatic]

A new study on chloroquine out:

"A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers reported.

The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday."

Read on Twitter

Another data point to go along with studies in other countries showing that the risks of treatment is more dangerous.

This is making it seem like the drug killed them but the truth is they were badly sick and the drug just didn’t help these people. They were going to die anyway whether they took this drug or not. It has also saved a lot of people though, for some it works for others not. This tweet and article of course doesn’t say that because they obviously have an agenda.

There have been numerous countries stopping use after they’ve seen the risks outweighing the benefits to the drug. There have been serious complications to a high percentage of patients using it during trials in numerous countries.

Much of the talk of recovery from usage has been on patients that weren’t really struggling with Covid. Much of the talk of this drug working for people comes from unproven rhetoric. The majority of actual studies haven’t been positive.