O'Connor: Bulls interested in Gobert and Mitchell Robinson

[Stratmaster]

I get that most here wouldn't want either guy as their starting C.

I get that most here don't have a meaningful understanding of how players progress, which statistics matter, or what actually contributes to winning. They start with their feeling, and then look for evidence to support it rather than starting with evidence to develop their opinions.

Yes. Only your understanding is the correct one.

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[Stratmaster]

WCJ was not better, at his best, than Vuc was at his worst. Playing alongside Lonzo, Zach and DDR his scoring stats would plummet back to next to nothing.

What difference does it make that WCJ was at his best and Vuc was at his worst? Based on their ages, that is expected of both of them. It's irrelevant. It is what happened last season. WCJ was better. You know what should happen next year? WCJ should continue to make iterative improvements, and Vuc should probably continue to degrade. That is the general expectation when 22 year old guys and 30 year old guys each age a year. It may not work out that way of course, but that is the general expectation.

WCJ was slightly better on the offensive boards. Vuc better on the defensive boards. Vuc blocked more shots, had more assists, more steals. If Vuc has a normal shooting year it isn't even close.

Vuc didn't have a normal shooting year. In a year where he was 2nd in the league in wide open 3 point attempts and had the easiest shot selection of his career, that he still couldn't hit the broad side of the barn. It isn't really relevant what he might have done if that wasn't true.

It's worth noting Vuc's normal shooting is below the league average in efficiency at a position that is typically radically above efficiency. That is for his entire career. For his career, he is below league average in TS%, and WAY below his positional average. He has not been an efficient player throughout his career.

Most Centers main offensive game is not 3 point shooting. You know this.

I didn't make the comparison and claim one was unequivocally better last season. You did.

I didn't say anything about next year. Or the original trade. Or trade value. But since you keep moving back to that...

I would not trade Vuc for Carter straight up (of course, that isn't possible, but you brought up trade value) because I don't think it makes a whit of difference. I think the Bulls can do better than that. I also wouldn't give up Carter for Vuc in the position that the Magic are in. Obviously his youth and upside are more important to the Magic. So the trade comparison is really a moot point.

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[MikeDC]

Help me understand how WCJ was unequivocally better than Vuc last season.

In Vuc's worst season, and WCJ's best, I saw them as equal value to their teams. Per 36 stats are almost identical or Vuc gets a slight edge in almost every category except shooting.

Vuc had a bad shooting year. Even with that Carter replacing him would not have made the Bulls any better.

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I think you're kind of answering your own question when you say that statistically they were about the same. Because Vuc would have to be monstrously better statistically to offset the facts that:
1. Carter is a much better defender, and a much more mobile, useful defender.
2. This difference will only get bigger as Carter is young and on the front end of his career and Vuc is old and on the back end of his.
3. Carter is signed to a very reasonable contract, while we're casting about trying to replace Vuc. In the end, we're probably going to end up replacing Vuc with a worse player than Carter on a more expensive contract.

"These guys are statistically about the same last year" is not the right answer when you traded a guy in his early 20s, two significant picks, and took on bad money for a guy in his 30s.

Again, I said nothing about the trade. The statement was that WCJ was unequivocally better than Vuc last season. He wasn't. At all. WCJ will never be a good as Vuc was in Vuc's all star seasons.

The only reason anyone will want Carter over Vuc right now is age and upside. WCJ still has some upside potential. Vuc is likely to decline, although I wouldn't be surprised if he came back and had a very solid year next season.

Why do you think the Bulls next center will be worse than Carter? The current rumor is they are trying to get Gobert. Certainly better than Carter.

Similar stats + obviously worse defense (and by the way, the defensive stats bear this out if you look) = unequivocally worse.
As in, Vuc was unequivocally worse, because he was otherwise similar but significantly worse defensively.

Moving forward, what I think is the Bulls center next year will be, in order of likelihood 1) Vuc, 2) Mitchell Robinson .... 47) Rudy Gobert.

Carter is better than Vuc now. He'll be better than Vuc next year. Both Vuc and Carter are way better than Mitchell Robinson, who isn't any good at all.

[MikeDC]

After studying the NBA defensive statistics, I'm comfortable making the following assertion. Vucevic, Ayton and Mitchell Robinson are defensively about the same. If anything, Vuc and Ayton are guys I'd take to get a stop before I took MRob. The difference in perception is based on the fact that 1. Ayton is young and 2. Robinson is a stiff who sucks offensively.

But the bottom line is that neither of these guys would be a defensive upgrade.

[Stratmaster]

I think you're kind of answering your own question when you say that statistically they were about the same. Because Vuc would have to be monstrously better statistically to offset the facts that:
1. Carter is a much better defender, and a much more mobile, useful defender.
2. This difference will only get bigger as Carter is young and on the front end of his career and Vuc is old and on the back end of his.
3. Carter is signed to a very reasonable contract, while we're casting about trying to replace Vuc. In the end, we're probably going to end up replacing Vuc with a worse player than Carter on a more expensive contract.

"These guys are statistically about the same last year" is not the right answer when you traded a guy in his early 20s, two significant picks, and took on bad money for a guy in his 30s.

Again, I said nothing about the trade. The statement was that WCJ was unequivocally better than Vuc last season. He wasn't. At all. WCJ will never be a good as Vuc was in Vuc's all star seasons.

The only reason anyone will want Carter over Vuc right now is age and upside. WCJ still has some upside potential. Vuc is likely to decline, although I wouldn't be surprised if he came back and had a very solid year next season.

Why do you think the Bulls next center will be worse than Carter? The current rumor is they are trying to get Gobert. Certainly better than Carter.

Similar stats + obviously worse defense (and by the way, the defensive stats bear this out if you look) = unequivocally worse.
As in, Vuc was unequivocally worse, because he was otherwise similar but significantly worse defensively.

Moving forward, what I think is the Bulls center next year will be, in order of likelihood 1) Vuc, 2) Mitchell Robinson .... 47) Rudy Gobert.

Carter is better than Vuc now. He'll be better than Vuc next year. Both Vuc and Carter are way better than Mitchell Robinson, who isn't any good at all.

What defensive stats show this?

Vuc has a slightly better defensive rebounding percentage. Better block and steal percentages as well as better averages in all those categories. Vuc had more DWS. Carter a very slight edge in DBPM. Vuc, just barely better in VORP.

How many games did Carter play last season? 62. Vuc 73. He averaged 3 less MPG than Vuc.

Vuc started at Center for 73 games and played 33 mpg for a playoff team. Carter played 62 games and 29 mpg for the worst team in the league.

No. Carter is not better than Vuc as of the end of last season.

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[biggestbullsfan]

My only argument with that is that, Rudy has too many accolades for a straight up salary swap. They have to be viewed as winning the deal to sell it to their fans. Unless Rudy is just toxic and worn out his stay, i think they want either picks or a great young talent to make it sellable to the fan base.

I don't think they can get those things for him. They will be in the tax, are coming off two 1st round exits, their coach just quit, and the star player they want to keep doesn't like him. I think there will be considerable pressure for them to move him. They absolutely won't get a great young talent. They might be able to get picks, but they will be protected / bad picks and even then getting more than 1 feels unlikely. I think most of the league (maybe all of the league) looks at him like a talented player but an awful contract.

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That price tag is even higher than i imagined lol

[jnrjr79]

My only argument with that is that, Rudy has too many accolades for a straight up salary swap. They have to be viewed as winning the deal to sell it to their fans. Unless Rudy is just toxic and worn out his stay, i think they want either picks or a great young talent to make it sellable to the fan base.

I don't think they can get those things for him. They will be in the tax, are coming off two 1st round exits, their coach just quit, and the star player they want to keep doesn't like him. I think there will be considerable pressure for them to move him. They absolutely won't get a great young talent. They might be able to get picks, but they will be protected / bad picks and even then getting more than 1 feels unlikely. I think most of the league (maybe all of the league) looks at him like a talented player but an awful contract.

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That price tag is even higher than i imagined lol

I mean, of course the Jazz are going to put that out there. They won't get it.

[nomorezorro]

vucevic, coby, portland pick. done deal!

[Red8911]

My only argument with that is that, Rudy has too many accolades for a straight up salary swap. They have to be viewed as winning the deal to sell it to their fans. Unless Rudy is just toxic and worn out his stay, i think they want either picks or a great young talent to make it sellable to the fan base.

I don't think they can get those things for him. They will be in the tax, are coming off two 1st round exits, their coach just quit, and the star player they want to keep doesn't like him. I think there will be considerable pressure for them to move him. They absolutely won't get a great young talent. They might be able to get picks, but they will be protected / bad picks and even then getting more than 1 feels unlikely. I think most of the league (maybe all of the league) looks at him like a talented player but an awful contract.

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That price tag is even higher than i imagined lol

This is what every team should be asking for in order to trade away their star. I’ll never understand why teams just ask for picks and decide to rebuild.Get an all star caliber player in return and move on.

[sco]

I see rumor that Indy is back to shopping Turner. I think he should be our 1st choice as I think he'd cost us less than Ayton or Gobert. If somehow we could nab him for Vuc and Por pick, I'd be all over that.

[MikeDC]

Again, I said nothing about the trade. The statement was that WCJ was unequivocally better than Vuc last season. He wasn't. At all. WCJ will never be a good as Vuc was in Vuc's all star seasons.

The only reason anyone will want Carter over Vuc right now is age and upside. WCJ still has some upside potential. Vuc is likely to decline, although I wouldn't be surprised if he came back and had a very solid year next season.

Why do you think the Bulls next center will be worse than Carter? The current rumor is they are trying to get Gobert. Certainly better than Carter.

Similar stats + obviously worse defense (and by the way, the defensive stats bear this out if you look) = unequivocally worse.
As in, Vuc was unequivocally worse, because he was otherwise similar but significantly worse defensively.

Moving forward, what I think is the Bulls center next year will be, in order of likelihood 1) Vuc, 2) Mitchell Robinson .... 47) Rudy Gobert.

Carter is better than Vuc now. He'll be better than Vuc next year. Both Vuc and Carter are way better than Mitchell Robinson, who isn't any good at all.

What defensive stats show this?

From stats.nba.com
Defending Spot Up shooting
Carter - 21.2% of Defensive Plays - 0.97 PPP
Vuc - 13.9% of Defensive Plays - 1.05 PPP

Defending Isos
Carter - 11.5% of Defensive Plays - 0.6 PPP
Vuc - 6.8% of Defensive Plays - 1.01 PPP

Defending Post Ups
Carter - 8.7% of Defensive Plays - 0.73 PPP
Vuc - 5.5% of Defensive Plays - 0.9 PPP

Overall defensive field goal % from Defense Dashboard/Overall and Tracking/Defensive Impact (the first number is Defended FG% on all shots, the second is shots at the rim. Both strongly in the direction of Carter)
Vuc gave up 48.8% / 63.8%
Carter gave up 45.5% / 57.4%

On this final number, a simple way to think about this is that there were 40 guys in the NBA last year who defended about 14 shots a game. The average DFG% for this group was 46.2%, with a standard deviation of 2.6. When we say Vuc was bad at this, we can quantify it by saying his 48.8% was a full standard deviation below the mean. Carter's 45.5% was slightly above average. Also worth noting that Vucevic was clearly targeted a lot. He defended 20 shots a game! Carter only defended 14.7, slightly below the average of 15.75.

Basically, the evidence is there that Carter is a good defender. Vuc is pretty below average.

Also, I should add that I probably wasn't giving Ayton enough credit in that post where I said he was roughly equivalent to Vuc defensively. He does pretty well by this measure... He defended about 16.3 shots a game at a DFG% of 44.3. So while some of his playtype numbers are roughly at Vuc's level, they all tend to be a bit better and the end result is he's significantly better in total even though no one aspect really stands out.

[kodo]

I mean you have to have "star caliber" to even come close to matching contracts, so that was a given.
A young player can be anyone, doesn't have to be any good.
And picks have to be there to unless the other team is giving a player better than Gobert for him, unlikely.

This package could be
- Vucevic (all-star in 2021)
- Coby
- Portland 1st rounder

Which I think is a pretty sad return for Gobert.

[MisterRoy]

Isn’t Ainge in charge over there? He’ll fleece someone.


Sent from somewhere you've never been.

[Hangtime84]

After studying the NBA defensive statistics, I'm comfortable making the following assertion. Vucevic, Ayton and Mitchell Robinson are defensively about the same. If anything, Vuc and Ayton are guys I'd take to get a stop before I took MRob. The difference in perception is based on the fact that 1. Ayton is young and 2. Robinson is a stiff who sucks offensively.

But the bottom line is that neither of these guys would be a defensive upgrade.

Ayton was known as a defensively weak center who took many jump shots before this suns run.

I’m have feeling that guy will return if he gets paid.

[FriedRise]

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That price tag is even higher than i imagined lol

nvm. Ainge's gonna hold out like the Sixers did with Simmons.

Hard to imagine another situation as toxic as Ben Simmons in Philly, but they did eventually get a trade package they wanted by not biting on the first offer. This isn't gonna be any different.

[dougthonus]

Most Centers main offensive game is not 3 point shooting. You know this.

Vuc's offensive game for the majority of his career was not shooting threes either. Last year, Carter shot nearly as many 3s, and shot them at a slightly better efficiency. I'm not sure what you think this comment shows? Most three point shooters are also high efficiency players, because if you are half way decent, the three is a highly efficient shot. The raise in efficiency league wide correlates to the massive increase in three point shots.

I didn't make the comparison and claim one was unequivocally better last season. You did.

Yes, because one was unequivocally better. One is a plus defender and a more efficient offensive player, and has more or less the same counting stats. That guy is unequivocally better. He was better on both ends of the floor. Unequivocal isn't a magnitude phrase. I'm not saying Carter was 2x the player Vuc was (though I think he was much better), just that it was obvious he was a least a little better. There is no meaningful argument you can make that Vuc was better. The argument is just whether you think Carter was a little better or a lot better.

I didn't say anything about next year. Or the original trade. Or trade value. But since you keep moving back to that...

You brought up Carter was at his best and Vuc was at his worst. I mentioned trade value a second time, because you replied to a post where I discussed trade value. So I noted, if your comments were accurate (which I disagree with them) and that Carter was not better, but merely the same, that it wouldn't have impacted my overall argument which you replied to. If you don't want to discuss that overall argument that is fine, I don't need to discuss it further with you. I was pointing it out though because it was relevant to the post you replied to if you wanted to factor it in.

I would not trade Vuc for Carter straight up (of course, that isn't possible, but you brought up trade value) because I don't think it makes a whit of difference.

Let's say you are right that last year they were the same caliber player. Even under that scenario, it would be foolish not to want Carter given he costs half as much and is likely to improve and Vuc is likely to degrade. It may not make a huge difference, but Carter would still very clearly be more desirable even in the scenario you described.

I think the Bulls can do better than that. I also wouldn't give up Carter for Vuc in the position that the Magic are in. Obviously his youth and upside are more important to the Magic. So the trade comparison is really a moot point.

Maybe the Bulls can do better at center eventually, but you'd still take the better player today, whom would have more trade value while trying to upgrade.

[kulaz3000]

I told ya'll - with Danny Ainge involved with the Jazz, there is no reasonable deal to be had with them, even if you're a fan of Gobert. Hard pass.

[dougthonus]

This is what every team should be asking for in order to trade away their star. I’ll never understand why teams just ask for picks and decide to rebuild.Get an all star caliber player in return and move on.

Generally speaking, it is because no one will give you that.

[dougthonus]

I told ya'll - with Danny Ainge involved with the Jazz, there is no reasonable deal to be had with them, even if you're a fan of Gobert. Hard pass.

Vuc - Star caliber player
Coby - Young player with potential
Portland pick - future 1st rounder

We're cooking with gas. That said, I doubt that is what Ainge is aiming for. I think all that means is he won't trade Gobert or its posturing or he's going to take a pseudo-not-real-star like Vuc.

[Jcool0]

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