Is Dalen Terry an NBA level player?

[sco]

I think after they dumped Lauri too quickly, I think the FO is afraid to let any young player go.

Also, it's a $3.5M option for next year, so let's not blow this out of proportion. And while I'm skeptical that Terry lacks starter upside, he's one of those hard offseason workers. It wouldn't surprise me if he show improvement this season. Maybe spending time watching Ball play (maybe) helps him better understand where to focus his game.

That said, I'm really rooting for Phillips to make big strides this season.

[League Circles]

Gross. I like Terry but teams in our position simply can't be giving guaranteed money in future seasons to 3rd string players. If you believe enough in him to pick up his option then you need to play him in the rotation IMO. Not saying he can't ever be a solid NBA player (though I'd bet against it), just saying you have to be more selective. We are already prioritizing all these guys over him on the perimeter:

Ball
Coby
Ayo
Zach
Giddey
Patrick
You could maybe even say Matas in a sense.

Bad teams CANNOT be commiting to third string players!!!!! Even when the salary "isn't that much".

That said, it's an insane system, because it's bad for everyone if his option isn't picked up and then he remains on the roster. Absolutely atrocious CBA policy for the NBA on the 3rd and 4th year team options on rookie deals. It should OBVIOUSLY be decided by the team by the start of FA immediately prior to the year in question, not this insanity of a year early.

[sco]

Gross. I like Terry but teams in our position simply can't be giving guaranteed money in future seasons to 3rd string players. If you believe enough in him to pick up his option then you need to play him in the rotation IMO. Not saying he can't ever be a solid NBA player (though I'd bet against it), just saying you have to be more selective. We are already prioritizing all these guys over him on the perimeter:

Ball
Coby
Ayo
Zach
Giddey
Patrick
You could maybe even say Matas in a sense.

Bad teams CANNOT be commiting to third string players!!!!! Even when the salary "isn't that much".

That said, it's an insane system, because it's bad for everyone if his option isn't picked up and then he remains on the roster. Absolutely atrocious CBA policy for the NBA on the 3rd and 4th year team options on rookie deals. It should OBVIOUSLY be decided by the team by the start of FA immediately prior to the year in question, not this insanity of a year early.

I mean sure, he's not good, but he's got some upside (I think he works hard and I don't underestimate those guys). But that's a lot of emoting over a young guy who we signed for 1 year $3.5M. Add to that our conditional pick to SA extends 3 years, IIRC, so it's not just about tanking this season, but the next two if we want to keep it. I don't think we'll have the FA cap space to sign a MAX level guy until Zach's off the books...even if we trade him, I'm betting it's not for expirings, so...no big deal.

[League Circles]

Gross. I like Terry but teams in our position simply can't be giving guaranteed money in future seasons to 3rd string players. If you believe enough in him to pick up his option then you need to play him in the rotation IMO. Not saying he can't ever be a solid NBA player (though I'd bet against it), just saying you have to be more selective. We are already prioritizing all these guys over him on the perimeter:

Ball
Coby
Ayo
Zach
Giddey
Patrick
You could maybe even say Matas in a sense.

Bad teams CANNOT be commiting to third string players!!!!! Even when the salary "isn't that much".

That said, it's an insane system, because it's bad for everyone if his option isn't picked up and then he remains on the roster. Absolutely atrocious CBA policy for the NBA on the 3rd and 4th year team options on rookie deals. It should OBVIOUSLY be decided by the team by the start of FA immediately prior to the year in question, not this insanity of a year early.

I mean sure, he's not good, but he's got some upside (I think he works hard and I don't underestimate those guys). But that's a lot of emoting over a young guy who we signed for 1 year $3.5M. Add to that our conditional pick to SA extends 3 years, IIRC, so it's not just about tanking this season, but the next two if we want to keep it. I don't think we'll have the FA cap space to sign a MAX level guy until Zach's off the books...even if we trade him, I'm betting it's not for expirings, so...no big deal.

You're probably right. I have a general problem with 3rd and 4th year automatic pickups for guys that don't look like they'll stick, but I get it. I just feel like you never know what types of deals may become available for the guys we are committed to (Zach, Vuc, Patrick), so even though I admit it's unlikely, I wouldn't pick up the option, because I think Terry becoming a meaningful player is even less likely.

[sco]

Gross. I like Terry but teams in our position simply can't be giving guaranteed money in future seasons to 3rd string players. If you believe enough in him to pick up his option then you need to play him in the rotation IMO. Not saying he can't ever be a solid NBA player (though I'd bet against it), just saying you have to be more selective. We are already prioritizing all these guys over him on the perimeter:

Ball
Coby
Ayo
Zach
Giddey
Patrick
You could maybe even say Matas in a sense.

Bad teams CANNOT be commiting to third string players!!!!! Even when the salary "isn't that much".

That said, it's an insane system, because it's bad for everyone if his option isn't picked up and then he remains on the roster. Absolutely atrocious CBA policy for the NBA on the 3rd and 4th year team options on rookie deals. It should OBVIOUSLY be decided by the team by the start of FA immediately prior to the year in question, not this insanity of a year early.

I mean sure, he's not good, but he's got some upside (I think he works hard and I don't underestimate those guys). But that's a lot of emoting over a young guy who we signed for 1 year $3.5M. Add to that our conditional pick to SA extends 3 years, IIRC, so it's not just about tanking this season, but the next two if we want to keep it. I don't think we'll have the FA cap space to sign a MAX level guy until Zach's off the books...even if we trade him, I'm betting it's not for expirings, so...no big deal.

You're probably right. I have a general problem with 3rd and 4th year automatic pickups for guys that don't look like they'll stick, but I get it. I just feel like you never know what types of deals may become available for the guys we are committed to (Zach, Vuc, Patrick), so even though I admit it's unlikely, I wouldn't pick up the option, because I think Terry becoming a meaningful player is even less likely.

I'm with you, but he's definitely improved from being painful to watch to a more even mix of good and bad, with far fewer head scratching passes. And IIRC he was working with Jonny-dribbles-alot this offseason (along with Ayo), which had a big impact on Coby's game. Like so many, he's a good 3pt shot away...

[Ben Wilson25]

Force feed him minutes this season. It’s a win-win. Probably helps our pick situation but if the light goes on for him, great, you have another very young building block.

[DuckIII]

Force feed him minutes this season. It’s a win-win. Probably helps our pick situation but if the light goes on for him, great, you have another very young building block.

Every minute he gets is a minute that could have been played by Matas, Pat, Ayo, Coby, Phillips, or even Duarte.

If he comes into camp and flat out earns playing time over some of those guys, awesome. But we have too much young talent to develop to be wasting minutes on Terry.

[sco]

Force feed him minutes this season. It’s a win-win. Probably helps our pick situation but if the light goes on for him, great, you have another very young building block.

Every minute he gets is a minute that could have been played by Matas, Pat, Ayo, Coby, Phillips, or even Duarte.

If he comes into camp and flat out earns playing time over some of those guys, awesome. But we have too much young talent to develop to be wasting minutes on Terry.

I agree. But given our history of injuries, anyone left standing should see plenty of time.

[DuckIII]

Force feed him minutes this season. It’s a win-win. Probably helps our pick situation but if the light goes on for him, great, you have another very young building block.

Every minute he gets is a minute that could have been played by Matas, Pat, Ayo, Coby, Phillips, or even Duarte.

If he comes into camp and flat out earns playing time over some of those guys, awesome. But we have too much young talent to develop to be wasting minutes on Terry.

I agree. But given our history of injuries, anyone left standing should see plenty of time.

Yes, Terry fits the “you gotta have 5 on the floor” tier of developmental priority.

[Hangtime84]

higher on terry than most so this is good to me

[madvillian]

Ya, I'm with duck. Guys I'd rather give entitlement minutes to include even Duarte at this point. See if he can recover some of that magic he had as a rookie.

I hope he has improved his shot enough to at least be a corner threat but even then he's still only a moderately useful offensive player and defensively his head is too often in the clouds. He has decent defensive physical tools, but he's been clueless as a team defender.

I do think he has some remaining upside and I'm sure injuries will get him on the court but yea, there's not much really here to get even slightly excited about.

[rosenthall]

Personally I'm happy with this and think it's much better than letting him expire.

It's become the prevailing mood that Terry is a dud prospect, but people underestimate his potential IMO.

The most overlooked part about him is that he looks like an elite defensive prospect. But for some reason no one else feels that way or hasn't noticed his measured impact.

Consider:

1). He's around 90th percentile in both Darko DPM and D-EPM for his position, which are the most reliable advanced stats that are publicly available. Yes, these values haven't stabilized due to low minutes, but they're both bayesian and start rookies off at extremely low priors that you must outperform in order to raise your value. So the confidence intervals around his measured impact are wide, but he'd have to consistently flash as being very impactful to get to his current readings.

2). If you compare his defensive development to Robert Covington, Trey Murphy, and Jaden McDaniels using DARKO, you get this:



The above picture shows progression through games played, but these guys all came into the league older than Dalen. Comparing by age is more favorable to DT.

I don't think D-DPM is the final word on someone's defense, but he tracks favorably against other guys at his position who have made all defense teams.

3). A fact about Dalen that I've never heard mentioned is that for any forward who played as many minutes as he did, he lead the league in defensive field goal percentage.. https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-overall?PlayerPosition=F&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&dir=A&sort=D_FG_PCT

Holding opponents to a field goal percentage of 40% is outstanding. And if you watched his play at the end of the season you could plainly see it. He regularly shut down people he was guarding, and by mid-march he was getting regular rotation minutes so he was not a garbage time all-star.

4). He's been able to guard positions 1-4. Here's a radar chart for the positions he guarded last year:



Taken from here: https://craftednba.com/players/dalen-terry

It's true that if he doesn't find his shot he's not an important rotation player. But if he's even league average he becomes a super valuable role player.

And he probably does have a rotation spot this year because Pat and Lonzo seem highly likely to miss large swaths of playing time.

People who are angry that picking up his 3.5 million player option is this huge blow to our roster flexibility are missing the point. The holy grail of NBA roster building is to find a player who radically outplays his contract. If you think he's completely hopeless as a prospect then that's your prerogative, but I'd rather wait to see if his jump shot comes around.

[Muzbar]

higher on terry than most so this is good to me

I'm the same, at he a cheap contract who can defend and pass.

I still have he can turn into a decent role player, I hope he proves the haters wrong.

[Guru]

Personally I'm happy with this and think it's much better than letting him expire.

It's become the prevailing mood that Terry is a dud prospect, but people underestimate his potential IMO.

The most overlooked part about him is that he looks like an elite defensive prospect. But for some reason no one else feels that way or hasn't noticed his measured impact.

Consider:

1). He's around 90th percentile in both Darko DPM and D-EPM for his position, which are the most reliable advanced stats that are publicly available. Yes, these values haven't stabilized due to low minutes, but they're both bayesian and start rookies off at extremely low priors that you must outperform in order to raise your value. So the confidence intervals around his measured impact are wide, but he'd have to consistently flash as being very impactful to get to his current readings.

2). If you compare his defensive development to Robert Covington, Trey Murphy, and Jaden McDaniels using DARKO, you get this:



The above picture shows progression through games played, but these guys all came into the league older than Dalen. Comparing by age is more favorable to DT.

I don't think D-DPM is the final word on someone's defense, but he tracks favorably against other guys at his position who have made all defense teams.

3). A fact about Dalen that I've never heard mentioned is that for any forward who played as many minutes as he did, he lead the league in defensive field goal percentage.. https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-overall?PlayerPosition=F&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&dir=A&sort=D_FG_PCT

Holding opponents to a field goal percentage of 40% is outstanding. And if you watched his play at the end of the season you could plainly see it. He regularly shut down people he was guarding, and by mid-march he was getting regular rotation minutes so he was not a garbage time all-star.

4). He's been able to guard positions 1-4. Here's a radar chart for the positions he guarded last year:



Taken from here: https://craftednba.com/players/dalen-terry

It's true that if he doesn't find his shot he's not an important rotation player. But if he's even league average he becomes a super valuable role player.

And he probably does have a rotation spot this year because Pat and Lonzo seem highly likely to miss large swaths of playing time.

People who are angry that picking up his 3.5 million player option is this huge blow to our roster flexibility are missing the point. The holy grail of NBA roster building is to find a player who radically outplays his contract. If you think he's completely hopeless as a prospect then that's your prerogative, but I'd rather wait to see if his jump shot comes around.

Plus he's not a negative on offense due to his ability and desire to facilitate. At the very least he's a plus defender and not a black hole on offense.

[DASMACKDOWN]

Strangely enough, DT actually fits in the current vision of actually playing faster this season.

I am not the biggest fan of DT but given we lack defense and length, I am cool taking another flyer on DT this year. There is no real drawback to it.

[sco]

Personally I'm happy with this and think it's much better than letting him expire.

It's become the prevailing mood that Terry is a dud prospect, but people underestimate his potential IMO.

The most overlooked part about him is that he looks like an elite defensive prospect. But for some reason no one else feels that way or hasn't noticed his measured impact.

Consider:

1). He's around 90th percentile in both Darko DPM and D-EPM for his position, which are the most reliable advanced stats that are publicly available. Yes, these values haven't stabilized due to low minutes, but they're both bayesian and start rookies off at extremely low priors that you must outperform in order to raise your value. So the confidence intervals around his measured impact are wide, but he'd have to consistently flash as being very impactful to get to his current readings.

2). If you compare his defensive development to Robert Covington, Trey Murphy, and Jaden McDaniels using DARKO, you get this:



The above picture shows progression through games played, but these guys all came into the league older than Dalen. Comparing by age is more favorable to DT.

I don't think D-DPM is the final word on someone's defense, but he tracks favorably against other guys at his position who have made all defense teams.

3). A fact about Dalen that I've never heard mentioned is that for any forward who played as many minutes as he did, he lead the league in defensive field goal percentage.. https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-overall?PlayerPosition=F&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&dir=A&sort=D_FG_PCT

Holding opponents to a field goal percentage of 40% is outstanding. And if you watched his play at the end of the season you could plainly see it. He regularly shut down people he was guarding, and by mid-march he was getting regular rotation minutes so he was not a garbage time all-star.

4). He's been able to guard positions 1-4. Here's a radar chart for the positions he guarded last year:



Taken from here: https://craftednba.com/players/dalen-terry

It's true that if he doesn't find his shot he's not an important rotation player. But if he's even league average he becomes a super valuable role player.

And he probably does have a rotation spot this year because Pat and Lonzo seem highly likely to miss large swaths of playing time.

People who are angry that picking up his 3.5 million player option is this huge blow to our roster flexibility are missing the point. The holy grail of NBA roster building is to find a player who radically outplays his contract. If you think he's completely hopeless as a prospect then that's your prerogative, but I'd rather wait to see if his jump shot comes around.

Love the work on this!

I will say that I am not a fan of comparing guys against trajectories of guys who became great players because it ignores the 99% of guys who had similar early career trajectories who ultimately were average or below.

Terry has shown himself to be a good defender so far. He's been one of the notable hard workers, and I don't bet against those guys. That said he's a good 3pt shot away from being able to get consistent rotation minutes, but that doesn't appear to be an obstacle that will be easy for him to overcome.

Was picking up his option a bad bet? Statistically, probably, but the FO needs to double-down on the bets they've made at this point. I think they made a bad bet against Lauri and they've swung the other way since then.

[rosenthall]

Personally I'm happy with this and think it's much better than letting him expire.

It's become the prevailing mood that Terry is a dud prospect, but people underestimate his potential IMO.

The most overlooked part about him is that he looks like an elite defensive prospect. But for some reason no one else feels that way or hasn't noticed his measured impact.

Consider:

1). He's around 90th percentile in both Darko DPM and D-EPM for his position, which are the most reliable advanced stats that are publicly available. Yes, these values haven't stabilized due to low minutes, but they're both bayesian and start rookies off at extremely low priors that you must outperform in order to raise your value. So the confidence intervals around his measured impact are wide, but he'd have to consistently flash as being very impactful to get to his current readings.

2). If you compare his defensive development to Robert Covington, Trey Murphy, and Jaden McDaniels using DARKO, you get this:



The above picture shows progression through games played, but these guys all came into the league older than Dalen. Comparing by age is more favorable to DT.

I don't think D-DPM is the final word on someone's defense, but he tracks favorably against other guys at his position who have made all defense teams.

3). A fact about Dalen that I've never heard mentioned is that for any forward who played as many minutes as he did, he lead the league in defensive field goal percentage.. https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-overall?PlayerPosition=F&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&dir=A&sort=D_FG_PCT

Holding opponents to a field goal percentage of 40% is outstanding. And if you watched his play at the end of the season you could plainly see it. He regularly shut down people he was guarding, and by mid-march he was getting regular rotation minutes so he was not a garbage time all-star.

4). He's been able to guard positions 1-4. Here's a radar chart for the positions he guarded last year:



Taken from here: https://craftednba.com/players/dalen-terry

It's true that if he doesn't find his shot he's not an important rotation player. But if he's even league average he becomes a super valuable role player.

And he probably does have a rotation spot this year because Pat and Lonzo seem highly likely to miss large swaths of playing time.

People who are angry that picking up his 3.5 million player option is this huge blow to our roster flexibility are missing the point. The holy grail of NBA roster building is to find a player who radically outplays his contract. If you think he's completely hopeless as a prospect then that's your prerogative, but I'd rather wait to see if his jump shot comes around.

Plus he's not a negative on offense due to his ability and desire to facilitate. At the very least he's a plus defender and not a black hole on offense.

He also has a very good motor (partially reflected in his defensive metrics), and finishes well at the rim. Last year he shot 68% at the rim on 35% of his shot attempts.

Fun facts about his shot distribution last year: he didn't take a single(!) long two the whole year, and didn't make a single shot between 10 and 23 feet either. His shooting was literally either in the paint or from three.

[rosenthall]

Personally I'm happy with this and think it's much better than letting him expire.

It's become the prevailing mood that Terry is a dud prospect, but people underestimate his potential IMO.

The most overlooked part about him is that he looks like an elite defensive prospect. But for some reason no one else feels that way or hasn't noticed his measured impact.

Consider:

1). He's around 90th percentile in both Darko DPM and D-EPM for his position, which are the most reliable advanced stats that are publicly available. Yes, these values haven't stabilized due to low minutes, but they're both bayesian and start rookies off at extremely low priors that you must outperform in order to raise your value. So the confidence intervals around his measured impact are wide, but he'd have to consistently flash as being very impactful to get to his current readings.

2). If you compare his defensive development to Robert Covington, Trey Murphy, and Jaden McDaniels using DARKO, you get this:



The above picture shows progression through games played, but these guys all came into the league older than Dalen. Comparing by age is more favorable to DT.

I don't think D-DPM is the final word on someone's defense, but he tracks favorably against other guys at his position who have made all defense teams.

3). A fact about Dalen that I've never heard mentioned is that for any forward who played as many minutes as he did, he lead the league in defensive field goal percentage.. https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-overall?PlayerPosition=F&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&dir=A&sort=D_FG_PCT

Holding opponents to a field goal percentage of 40% is outstanding. And if you watched his play at the end of the season you could plainly see it. He regularly shut down people he was guarding, and by mid-march he was getting regular rotation minutes so he was not a garbage time all-star.

4). He's been able to guard positions 1-4. Here's a radar chart for the positions he guarded last year:



Taken from here: https://craftednba.com/players/dalen-terry

It's true that if he doesn't find his shot he's not an important rotation player. But if he's even league average he becomes a super valuable role player.

And he probably does have a rotation spot this year because Pat and Lonzo seem highly likely to miss large swaths of playing time.

People who are angry that picking up his 3.5 million player option is this huge blow to our roster flexibility are missing the point. The holy grail of NBA roster building is to find a player who radically outplays his contract. If you think he's completely hopeless as a prospect then that's your prerogative, but I'd rather wait to see if his jump shot comes around.

Love the work on this!

I will say that I am not a fan of comparing guys against trajectories of guys who became great players because it ignores the 99% of guys who had similar early career trajectories who ultimately were average or below.

I generally agree, but the comparison was about his upside as a prospect, and not who I think he's likely to turn out to be as an NBA player.

There's also the difference between whether those charts demonstrate that he's probably a good defender (they do), or whether he's likely to stick around in the league (they don't).

I'd guess most guys who have a defensive impact that tracks so cosely Robert Covington end up as good defenders, but that's not enough to mean they'll be important players. I'm sure David Nwaba and Shaq Harrison had great defensive impact numbers, but they still washed out of the league.

Terry has shown himself to be a good defender so far. He's been one of the notable hard workers, and I don't bet against those guys. That said he's a good 3pt shot away from being able to get consistent rotation minutes, but that doesn't appear to be an obstacle that will be easy for him to overcome.

I think everyone agrees that if DT doesn't improve his shooting he won't make it in the league. There are a lot of players who fall into that bucket who couldn't stick on NBA rosters.

[rosenthall]

I will say that I am not a fan of comparing guys against trajectories of guys who became great players because it ignores the 99% of guys who had similar early career trajectories who ultimately were average or below.

I generally agree, but the comparison was about his upside as a prospect, and not who I think he's likely to turn out to be as an NBA player.

There's also the difference between whether those charts demonstrate that he's probably a good defender (they do), or whether he's likely to stick around in the league (they don't).

I'd guess most guys who have a defensive impact that tracks so cosely Robert Covington end up as good defenders, but that's not enough to mean they'll be important players. I'm sure David Nwaba and Shaq Harrison had great defensive impact numbers, but they still washed out of the league.

Terry has shown himself to be a good defender so far. He's been one of the notable hard workers, and I don't bet against those guys. That said he's a good 3pt shot away from being able to get consistent rotation minutes, but that doesn't appear to be an obstacle that will be easy for him to overcome.

I think everyone agrees that if DT doesn't improve his shooting he won't make it in the league. There are a lot of players who fall into that bucket who couldn't stick on NBA rosters.[/quote]

[rosenthall]

I will say that I am not a fan of comparing guys against trajectories of guys who became great players because it ignores the 99% of guys who had similar early career trajectories who ultimately were average or below.

I generally agree, but the comparison was about his upside as a prospect, and not who I think he's likely to turn out to be as an NBA player.

There's also the difference between whether those charts demonstrate that he's probably a good defender (they do), or whether he's likely to stick around in the league (they don't).

I'd guess most guys who have a defensive impact that tracks so cosely Robert Covington end up as good defenders, but that's not enough to mean they'll be important players. I'm sure David Nwaba and Shaq Harrison had great defensive impact numbers, but they still washed out of the league.

Terry has shown himself to be a good defender so far. He's been one of the notable hard workers, and I don't bet against those guys. That said he's a good 3pt shot away from being able to get consistent rotation minutes, but that doesn't appear to be an obstacle that will be easy for him to overcome.

I think everyone agrees that if DT doesn't improve his shooting he won't make it in the league. There are a lot of players who fall into that bucket who couldn't stick on NBA rosters.