The Zach Lavine Problem

BullsFTW · Post #441 » by **BullsFTW** » Tue Jul 4, 2017 7:15 am

I predict LaVine will come back during December but in limited minutes. He will sit out games to rest throughout the season.

terminus · Post #442 » by **terminus** » Tue Jul 4, 2017 10:37 am

I only hope the FO doesn't use the money to give him a max contract.

chrispatrick · Post #443 » by **chrispatrick** » Tue Jul 4, 2017 10:52 am

BrooklynBulls wrote:
Rerisen wrote:Bulls might be tempted to pull a Robinson if they are leading the tank pack, but then Zach is set to come back, and he could leapfrog them back over some of the worst teams.

ACL, if you're lucky, is a 2 season injury. I promise you, when he comes back, he will suck completely.

I love him as a prospect though. ACL injuries in hyper athletic players expecting big contracts...flashbacks to Rose, Arenas...Some players recover as if it never happened-- Jabari Parker after his first one, Rubio, Nerlens Noel, etc. Some people's careers stop in their tracks after it-- Josh Howard, Rajon Rondo (he was never any good again. He's been getting by on reputation for a half decade. He's a net negative), Michael Redd, Nenad Krstic, Baron Davis' second one...

We have no sample to work with before we have to decide to pay him. It's a frustrating spot, but he could be better than Butler ever was, in my opinion.

A lot of who recovers and who doesn't is age related (as you can see from the list you put together). While I absolutely think LaVine is a "problem" in the sense that the original poster described, i.e. he's going to be up for a massive contract before he's ever been a net positive player, I am probably less concerned about the ACL than most given how young he was when he injured it. It's not the absolute determining factor, but it's a huge help to tear it as young as LaVine is.

You're absolutely correct that an ACL is a 2 year injury in terms of most people describe that's when they're truly fully back. There's no reason LaVine can't play opening day, but he might not be fully back for 2 years.

I think it's a massive stretch to say he could ever be as good as Butler. Yes, Butler improved like crazy but that was the exception and hardly the norm. Not to mention Butler was a hugely positive impact player (statistically) from the moment he stepped on the court in his career and LaVine to this day has been a moderately negative one every year of his career.

By saying you think he could be better than Butler, you're saying a guy who is not even mediocre yet could firmly be a top 10 player (i.e. better than Butler who is a borderline top 10 player). I can't think of many players who racked up so many net negative years before becoming a top 10 player, so I'm not sure there would be much precedence for such improvement. Ignoring on/off stuff, he would probably need to be the best offensive player in the league to crack the top 10 overall given his defensive IQ.

Post #444 » by **RedBulls23** » Tue Jul 4, 2017 11:12 am

BrooklynBulls wrote:
Rerisen wrote:Bulls might be tempted to pull a Robinson if they are leading the tank pack, but then Zach is set to come back, and he could leapfrog them back over some of the worst teams.

ACL, if you're lucky, is a 2 season injury. I promise you, when he comes back, he will suck completely.

I love him as a prospect though. ACL injuries in hyper athletic players expecting big contracts...flashbacks to Rose, Arenas...Some players recover as if it never happened-- Jabari Parker after his first one, Rubio, Nerlens Noel, etc. Some people's careers stop in their tracks after it-- Josh Howard, Rajon Rondo (he was never any good again. He's been getting by on reputation for a half decade. He's a net negative), Michael Redd, Nenad Krstic, Baron Davis' second one...

One positive with Lavine is his ability to shoot the ball.

A lot of his highlights I've watched, he doesn't simply rely on just out jumping his defender.

Hopefully he continues to work his shot as well as his handles.

Post #445 » by **Rerisen** » Tue Jul 4, 2017 11:42 am

BrooklynBulls wrote:
Rerisen wrote:Bulls might be tempted to pull a Robinson if they are leading the tank pack, but then Zach is set to come back, and he could leapfrog them back over some of the worst teams.

ACL, if you're lucky, is a 2 season injury. I promise you, when he comes back, he will suck completely.

I love him as a prospect though. ACL injuries in hyper athletic players expecting big contracts...flashbacks to Rose, Arenas...Some players recover as if it never happened-- Jabari Parker after his first one, Rubio, Nerlens Noel, etc. Some people's careers stop in their tracks after it-- Josh Howard, Rajon Rondo (he was never any good again. He's been getting by on reputation for a half decade. He's a net negative), Michael Redd, Nenad Krstic, Baron Davis' second one...

We have no sample to work with before we have to decide to pay him. It's a frustrating spot, but he could be better than Butler ever was, in my opinion.

I'm not nearly so high on his potential. Mostly because if a guy isn't interested in playing defense after 3 years, despite his tools, despite being coached by Thibs, it'd be rare for him to suddenly become a big plus there. And without being positive on that end, its going to limit his overall impact. Which despite already having great efficiency, was still a negative. That's worrying.

I think he could be a good #2 though if he reaches his upside.

d boy gentleman · Post #446 » by **d boy gentleman** » Tue Jul 4, 2017 12:59 pm

Regarding the ACL tear, is it a full tear or partial tear? Reason I ask is that he played 6 minutes after the tear.

chrispatrick · Post #447 » by **chrispatrick** » Tue Jul 4, 2017 2:24 pm

d boy gentleman wrote:Regarding the ACL tear, is it a full tear or partial tear? Reason I ask is that he played 6 minutes after the tear.

You can play (somewhat) without an ACL depending on what else is going on with the knee, it's just that usually there's other damage or enough swelling that most people can't after tearing one. Rondo actually played after his too. Olandis Gary finished an NFL football game as a running back with a full tear too.

Partial ACL tears happen but are very rare (and often require the same surgery a full tear would).

All that said, from what I read it sounded like a full tear, but it's possible I missed something.

WindyCityBorn · Post #448 » by **WindyCityBorn** » Tue Jul 4, 2017 4:08 pm

terminus wrote:I only hope the FO doesn't use the money to give him a max contract.

I hope they pay whatever is necessary to retain him. I think he is only player from the trade that I can say will be an all-star without being a homer.

WindyCityBorn · Post #449 » by **WindyCityBorn** » Tue Jul 4, 2017 4:11 pm

BullsFTW wrote:I predict LaVine will come back during December but in limited minutes. He will sit out games to rest throughout the season.

Why would a 22 year old need rest days if he is already on minutes restriction? Man the NBA has become so soft if this is going to be norm going forward.

BullsFTW · Post #450 » by **BullsFTW** » Tue Jul 4, 2017 4:14 pm

WindyCityBorn wrote:
BullsFTW wrote:I predict LaVine will come back during December but in limited minutes. He will sit out games to rest throughout the season.

Why would a 22 year old need rest days if he is already on minutes restriction? Man the NBA has become so soft if this is going to be norm going forward.

He's coming off a major knee surgery. I'm sure the Bulls will take a precautionary approach.

TheStig · Post #451 » by **TheStig** » Tue Jul 4, 2017 4:15 pm

BullsFTW wrote:I predict LaVine will come back during December but in limited minutes. He will sit out games to rest throughout the season.

Lavine is headed into a contract year in a big market as the clear #1. I'd be surprised if he wasn't ready to start the season. He's going to play 70+ games and score 22+ppg and we will win 17 games. Mostly the ones he goes off.

BullsFTW · Post #452 » by **BullsFTW** » Tue Jul 4, 2017 4:17 pm

TheStig wrote:
BullsFTW wrote:I predict LaVine will come back during December but in limited minutes. He will sit out games to rest throughout the season.

Lavine is headed into a contract year in a big market as the clear #1. I'd be surprised if he wasn't ready to start the season. He's going to play 70+ games and score 22+ppg and we will win 17 games. Mostly the ones he goes off.

Well, I hope all of that happens.

Chi · Post #453 » by **Chi** » Tue Jul 4, 2017 4:20 pm

TheStig wrote:
BullsFTW wrote:I predict LaVine will come back during December but in limited minutes. He will sit out games to rest throughout the season.

Lavine is headed into a contract year in a big market as the clear #1. I'd be surprised if he wasn't ready to start the season. He's going to play 70+ games and score 22+ppg and we will win 17 games. Mostly the ones he goes off.

I think this sounds more likely than anything else I've seen so far...

waffle · Post #454 » by **waffle** » Tue Jul 4, 2017 4:27 pm

could the bulls try to slow roll him 1) to keep his contract value down and 2) to increase our suckage next year? Why bring him back aggressively?

WindyCityBorn · Post #455 » by **WindyCityBorn** » Tue Jul 4, 2017 4:53 pm

waffle wrote:could the bulls try to slow roll him 1) to keep his contract value down and 2) to increase our suckage next year? Why bring him back aggressively?

I could see option 2, but there will be at least one team out there that will offer max money regardless of how much he plays unless he is terrible during those minutes.

Doing 1) also seems like a great way to piss him off. Isn't our FO rep bad enough?

If they try to tank his value and his still ends up getting a huge deal then a lot of you will be saying that the Bulls are paying too much for a risky player that hasn't shown that his back close to old form...

Alcatraz17 · Post #456 » by **Alcatraz17** » Tue Jul 4, 2017 8:03 pm

WindyCityBorn wrote:
waffle wrote:could the bulls try to slow roll him 1) to keep his contract value down and 2) to increase our suckage next year? Why bring him back aggressively?

I could see option 2, but there will be at least one team out there that will offer max money regardless of how much he plays unless he is terrible during those minutes.

Doing 1) also seems like a great way to piss him off. Isn't our FO rep bad enough?

If they try to tank his value and his still ends up getting a huge deal then a lot of you will be saying that the Bulls are paying too much for a risky player that hasn't shown that his back close to old form...

Another way to look at this is if he comes back in the first quarter of the season (which I expect) and the bulls feel confident in everything...offer him an extension before the season even ends? I guess in a way you can catch him in the honeymoon phase of the Chicago stage and get him to buy the idea of securing the next 4-5 years here...

If he plays well and come contract time the bulls have a chance to retain him for a fair to slightly overpriced number in R.F.Agency and choose not to..we'll know if they are committed to a longer rebuild or ready to point the arrow up.

What's scary is if after this season Lavine looks more promising as an up and coming vet than our young players do as career starters....and we continue without him....to more lotto dependent seasons.

Damn...I guess I want Lavine to work here more than I thought...

Paxson43 · Post #457 » by **Paxson43** » Wed Jul 5, 2017 2:47 pm

It's really a pick-your-poison situation for the Bulls. On the one hand, you don't want to rush him back because he makes your team better and he's showcasing to the rest of the league how healthy he is post-ACL surgery. That could drive up or drive down his value.

On the other hand, if you hold him out too long, you really have no idea how he is post-ACL surgery, how he fits on this team offensively/defensively, and you risk pissing him off if he feels like he's ready to go.

The more I think about it, I want him playing once he is cleared and mentally is ready to go. If that means more games for us, fine.

Just_Bullz · Post #458 » by **Just_Bullz** » Wed Jul 5, 2017 2:51 pm

terminus wrote:I only hope the FO doesn't use the money to give him a max contract.

I doubt Lavine gets max money right after an ACL injury unless he averages 30ppg with good defense with the limited time he gets to play factoring his recovery and easing back to full minutes on a regular basis.

The odds are not in his favour, high chance we get him on a cheaper deal. :lol:

MC3 · Post #459 » by **MC3** » Wed Jul 5, 2017 2:54 pm

Just_Bullz wrote:
terminus wrote:I only hope the FO doesn't use the money to give him a max contract.

I doubt Lavine gets max money right after an ACL injury unless he averages 30ppg with good defense with the limited time he gets to play factoring his recovery and easing back to full minutes on a regular basis.

The odds are not in his favour, high chance we get him on a cheaper deal.

Wesley Matthews got his max right after his achilies injury. And Jabari Parker was likely for max extension even after first ACL injury, now with 2nd one Bucks might still need to offer it if they want to keep him. It's sucks. But there is enough money going around for someone to offer him a max. I am damn sure Nets will give him one.

Peelboy · Post #460 » by **Peelboy** » Wed Jul 5, 2017 3:14 pm

Just_Bullz wrote:
terminus wrote:I only hope the FO doesn't use the money to give him a max contract.

I doubt Lavine gets max money right after an ACL injury unless he averages 30ppg with good defense with the limited time he gets to play factoring his recovery and easing back to full minutes on a regular basis.

The odds are not in his favour, high chance we get him on a cheaper deal.

Plus weren't there reports that with the lower cap and shorter playoffs this year and contracts thrown around so far fewer teams would have space in 2018? Combine that with what seems like his own attitude and the Bulls' (and I'm sure the Bulls have discussed this with him) and I would expect him to come back mid-late season to get his feet wet but that's it. And the Bulls to have already discussed some prelim extension terms with him with the goal of giving him some certainty and the team getting him on ideally a Curry-esque contract that underpays him in years 2-4 but protects him from further injury (and/or maybe gives him a 3yr deal w opt- out in yr3 type of structure).